Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Ace]

For the record…I’m completely fine packaging things to upgrade a forward position.

You aren’t doing that with Hamilton’s nonsense price.

If someone wants to take a package like Jersey gave for Meier and give me a really good forward I already know is good…yeah I’ll listen. We can’t keep everyone.

But really…I’d like the top 4D and a Goalie that Adams hasn’t gotten yet. If he addressed it we could find ourselves right in Jersey’s spot when they made the Meier move. Until then…we continue to wait for the necessity additions to get us to the marquee one.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

I'd like to hear the EP cost from legit people and not just HF nuck fans but I would take a long hard look at it

A realistic proposal would probably be

Savoie/Benson/Kulich
Mittelstadt
2024 1st
2025 1st

Add some filler to that, but that would be the core part of the deal.

 

[Matt Ress]

A realistic proposal would probably be

Savoie/Benson/Kulich
Mittelstadt
2024 1st
2025 1st

Add some filler to that, but that would be the core part of the deal.

No offense but I already know what HF says

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

No offense but I already know what HF says

Starts with Dahlin?

I know I've seen the Petey threads on the trade boards. They want Cozens++++. They're getting no where close to that though. You don't get a kings ransom for a guy that wants out + needs a huge contract. They're still in the early delusions of trade rumors. Like when Sabres fans said it starts with Zegras + Drysdale.

 

[sabremike]

When the thing that killed us last season was ECHL level goaltending and lack of defensive depth I have no idea why we would blow a pile of assets on anything that doesn't address those two glaring needs unless it was a deal simply too good to pass up.

 

[Fezzy126]

Not only did he, he was mocking some lowball idea (Stillman and Olofsson) that I saw nowhere.

He built a strawman, only to sound stupider.

I think he caters to lowest level of social media user, like the 13-year old shit-disturber kid that tells you McDavid is actually a terrible hockey player, or that the Bills should bench and trade Josh Allen after a tough game...

I've seen both PHam and Sal C both do this, I have no idea why they even acknowledge some of the trash out on X and FB, but for some reason not only do they pay attention to these idiots, they then talk about them on the radio as if they represent the majority of fans.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I'd like to hear the EP cost from legit people and not just HF nuck fans but I would take a long hard look at it

Yeah, have to cover the bases...but that price. Both in trade cost and cap hit, it would just be too much.

 

[Professor Chaos]

Well he said 2 to 3 years not 2 years so I dont know what you re getting at?

I'm getting at the fact that he's been omitted

 

[The Blunder Years]

I wanted to make a list of forwards that are(or could be) long term impact players to our core.

Proven: Skinner, Tuch, Tage, Mitts, Cozens

Young NHLers: Quinn, Peterka, Krebs

Prospects: Savoie, Benson, Kulich, Rosen, Poltapov, Rousek, Ostlund, Neuchev, Wahlberg

I think every prospect I listed has NHL potential and the ability to earn a long term contract.

All in all, that is SEVENTEEN forwards that could become impactful long term players. Not to mention, we have a large number of other forwards and prospects that any given season could take a jump and earn a spot in the NHL.

So at some point, it’s a numbers game and we’re going to offload players. I think Adams has been stockpiling and not spending for awhile now and has been exploring trades for star players (Hellebuyck, Robertson and Zegras). Consolidate some of your assets into something of greater quality. I wish It was Robertson lol

 

[Irie]

This is where you and so many others seem to be confused by these stats. They don't measure the players "ability", or potential or characteristics, they measure their results.

It's the difference between thinking the stats say that, "Cozens has had bad defensive results", and "Cozens is inherently or intrinsically a bad defensive player".

All stats are devoid of context. It's like saying goals, assists or wins/losses are worthless because they are devoid of context. It's on you to be aware of the context and interpret the stats accordingly. And as regular posters on HFboards and avid Sabres fans I'm pretty sure we're all aware of the context here.

You're arguing out of both sides of your mouth. You say Cozens is defensively responsible, but then you say the system is incredibly loose. Which means that the players in the system are playing incredibly loose and Cozens is one of them. I don't see you or anyone else saying Tage or Skinner are defensively responsible, but you tie yourself in knots to defend Cozens as defensively responsible when he plays the same system, style, and puts up nearly the same defensive results as Tage and Skinner.

First of all, you were posting charts and claiming a player is bad, not that his results are bad due to context of team/linemates/system. When confronted with the inconsistencies of said charts, you are claiming that the chart are now results, not abilities? Either way, by your own words, the charts are inaccurate in evaluating players abilities. If they were actually worth anything then the results could not drastically change when players change teams.

Granato's "system" currently is more a free-for-all than a ridgid structure. The players switch jobs and responsibilities depending on where they are on the ice in regards to the puck and their linemates. Often Cozens or Tage are playing the F1 role and in Dylan's case , then a rookie had the center defensive duties. In the defensive zone and on the PK, the players are playing Wilford's "Dallas Eakin's cloned Ducks system" of high pressure, high risk aggressive disruption hockey, which ignores responsibility to put an emphasis on attacking the puck and breaking up the play before the opposition can execute. Everyone loses their man in the system because it is designed for pressure and not discipline (it is a minor hockey strategy mostly).

What I like about Cozens game is his defensive reads as a 21 year old playing in the NHL, not necessarily his positioning as his entire line is up and down the ice and switching roles often, but how he plays in each select role.

I think if Granato gets a system in place with a bit more discipline and positioning, we will see those defensive metrics on the stat charts greatly improve for Cozens.

 

[TehDoak]

I wanted to make a list of forwards that are(or could be) long term impact players to our core.

Proven: Skinner, Tuch, Tage, Mitts, Cozens

Skinner has proven talent, but he should only be here as long as his contract has left. Sooner if a free buyout period happens or someone is willing to take on his contract. He swings too wildly season to season, he's on the wrong side of the aging curve. I am hoping with coaching and some role stability, that will improve. But the reality is we likely saw the best we will see from Skinner this last year.

Mittelstadt is far from proven. He's had one good half a season. He is unsigned beyond this season. I'm OK with giving him a reasonable mid term deal at this point, but, in reality, what is the point of having so many prospects if you aren't moving on from non core pieces when they get expensive?

Young NHLers: Quinn, Peterka, Krebs

Prospects: Savoie, Benson, Kulich, Rosen, Poltapov, Rousek, Ostlund, Neuchev, Wahlberg

I think every prospect I listed has NHL potential and the ability to earn a long term contract.

All in all, that is SEVENTEEN forwards that could become impactful long term players. Not to mention, we have a large number of other forwards and prospects that any given season could take a jump and earn a spot in the NHL.

So at some point, it’s a numbers game and we’re going to offload players. I think Adams has been stockpiling and not spending for awhile now and has been exploring trades for star players (Hellebuyck, Robertson and Zegras). Consolidate some of your assets into something of greater quality. I wish It was Robertson lol

I think you are incorrect in the volume of players. Of those prospects, we'd be fortunate if half are NHLers.

Your overall point is correct though, we have a large number of fowards on the roster/in the system. Turning that depth into improving an area of need is one of the basic tenants of asset management/roster building

Adams hasn't shown the willingness to do that, however.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[sabremike]

I think the debate was best summed up by the guy who (presumably having just ingested some sort of hallucinogenic) compared Kane unfavorably with VO. If you could sign him on a short term deal at a reasonable cost you absolutely do it.

 

[Perry Tegula]

Moran was at Imperial Pizza which is draped in Kane jerseys.

 

[HOOats]

I think the debate was best summed up by the guy who (presumably having just ingested some sort of hallucinogenic) compared Kane unfavorably with VO. If you could sign him on a short term deal at a reasonable cost you absolutely do it.

But but but the fancy stats say he's the worst player in the league!

(Honestly the lucidity that can come with psilocybin would more likely lead a Sabres fan to visions of Kane walking over the Falls with the Cup Wallenda-style. Alas, some things are too real for the "analytics community" to ever see )

 

[Sabreality]

I'm sorta indifferent to Kane at the moment, just need to see how things play out. His rehab obviously needs to go well. If VO isnt producing, Quinn is slow to recover and any of the rookies who may get a shot arent up to the task, then go for it come December for the rest of the season...and playoffs. But only short term, might as well use the capspace if its there and no other moves are on the table.

 

[Dubi Doo]

When the thing that killed us last season was ECHL level goaltending and lack of defensive depth I have no idea why we would blow a pile of assets on anything that doesn't address those two glaring needs unless it was a deal simply too good to pass up.

True. My only exception is a top tier defensive forward, which is why I'd be intrigued with Petterson, but the cost of assets + contract would likely be too much. I'd ante the hell up, though.

 

[BFLO]

First of all, you were posting charts and claiming a player is bad, not that his results are bad due to context of team/linemates/system. When confronted with the inconsistencies of said charts, you are claiming that the chart are now results, not abilities? Either way, by your own words, the charts are inaccurate in evaluating players abilities. If they were actually worth anything then the results could not drastically change when players change teams.

Granato's "system" currently is more a free-for-all than a ridgid structure. The players switch jobs and responsibilities depending on where they are on the ice in regards to the puck and their linemates. Often Cozens or Tage are playing the F1 role and in Dylan's case , then a rookie had the center defensive duties. In the defensive zone and on the PK, the players are playing Wilford's "Dallas Eakin's cloned Ducks system" of high pressure, high risk aggressive disruption hockey, which ignores responsibility to put an emphasis on attacking the puck and breaking up the play before the opposition can execute. Everyone loses their man in the system because it is designed for pressure and not discipline (it is a minor hockey strategy mostly).

What I like about Cozens game is his defensive reads as a 21 year old playing in the NHL, not necessarily his positioning as his entire line is up and down the ice and switching roles often, but how he plays in each select role.

I think if Granato gets a system in place with a bit more discipline and positioning, we will see those defensive metrics on the stat charts greatly improve for Cozens.

It's like you fundamentally don't understand that these are just a counting stat like any other. It's like saying goals are a worthless stat because they are without context and they count the number of goals the player scored, not the players goal scoring ability. There's nothing inconsistent about the stats themselves changing from team to team, season to season or system to system or any other variation because players performances can change in all of those circumstances.

I'm simplifying here, but the offensive stats count things like shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, cross seam passes, rebound chances, the distance/location from the net those events occur, etc and converts it into a single number. The Defensive stats are basically the inverse of your opponents offensive stat.

So when Cozens has a bad def war score, it basically means that when he was on the ice and the opponent had the puck they got an above average number of chances to score from more dangerous areas of the ice.

 

[joshjull]

Moran was at Imperial Pizza which is draped in Kane jerseys.

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[stokes84]

I think he caters to lowest level of social media user, like the 13-year old shit-disturber kid that tells you McDavid is actually a terrible hockey player, or that the Bills should bench and trade Josh Allen after a tough game...

I've seen both PHam and Sal C both do this, I have no idea why they even acknowledge some of the trash out on X and FB, but for some reason not only do they pay attention to these idiots, they then talk about them on the radio as if they represent the majority of fans.

Man, I was actually feeling really good about Paul Hamilton recently. During his coverage of the prospect tourney, I actually thought, “Wow, Paul seems really sharp and refreshed. He didn’t repeat himself over and over and actually made some nice points about the prospects!” Had to know that couldn’t last, he was always going to regress.

 

[sabremike]

People harping on Kane having bad fancy stats seem to be ignoring that he was injured and played most of last season on a team built and designed to lose as many games as possible.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

People harping on Kane having bad fancy stats seem to be ignoring that he was injured and played most of last season on a team built and designed to lose as many games as possible.

Coming out of recovery from a major surgery and playing on a team still trying to learn how to defend doesn't change the metrics by much. Glad you made it out of the stadium mud pit though.

 

[DapperCam]

I think Kane is kind of washed, and not necessarily the vet you want to bring it when the theme of the year is installing an actual defensive system for the forwards.

If there was a two-way, defensively responsible forward out there, or a younger forward with more upside I’d be more interested.

 

[Chainshot]

People harping on Kane having bad fancy stats seem to be ignoring that he was injured and played most of last season on a team built and designed to lose as many games as possible.

Not his first year being a drag at ES though so this isn't just a one year, bad team thing. He's a small, worn, complimentary playmaker at this point for a team that is short on size and defensive responsibility among it's forwards. It's a bad fit for that alone.

 

[tsujimoto74]

People harping on Kane having bad fancy stats seem to be ignoring that he was injured and played most of last season on a team built and designed to lose as many games as possible.

Kane has always been trash defensively, though. And we're pretty well-stocked with forwards who can score.