Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[sabres4ever]

Getting Johnson shows how much he values veteran players.

For 1 year.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

It makes complete sense to sign older players like EJ to 1 year deals as you don't want to be on the hook if the wheels completely fall off

 

[BFLO]

As great as it may look on paper, it is going to be incredibly difficult to win a playoff series, let alone a cup with five smallish 20-22 year old offensive forwards filling the majority of the bottom 6.

They may make the playoffs, but that is a lineup that likely gets steamrolled in the first round until all those players are older.

I also don't think that expecting them to put up 1st line numbers on the 3rd line while so young is a fair expectation.

It may be several more years before that group of players come into their own and are real assets in the postseason.

I don’t think 21-23 is that young for forwards.

I'm not expecting all 5 of our "small offensive forwards" to play for us or ever be in the lineup at the same time. But I am expecting a few of them to be difference makers on a cup run while still on their ELCs.

You don't think we can win a playoff series if any of Kulich, Savoie, Rosen, Ostlund or Benson are in the lineup until 2027?

 

[zenthusiast]

It makes complete sense to sign older players like EJ to 1 year deals as you don't want to be on the hook if the wheels completely fall off

And sometimes even if the wheels fall off they're still good room guys, so you can cut the salary and re-sign again

 

[Djp]

Actually the plan should have been continuous improvement, weaponizing cap space and draft capital to add pieces from outside of the org a little bit each offseason the last 3 summers until we have a contending team with a good mix of vets and young players. We had enough draft picks we could have spent 25% of our draft picks and still had a top tier prospect pool.

by acquiring what? What picks? Ehat would have happened to the cap?

It makes complete sense to sign older players like EJ to 1 year deals as you don't want to be on the hook if the wheels completely fall off

he’s around to teach the young D this year and mainly a 6/7 D

you use 1 yr contracts to fill gaps.

 

[Irie]

I don’t think 21-23 is that young for forwards.

I'm not expecting all 5 of our "small offensive forwards" to play for us or ever be in the lineup at the same time. But I am expecting a few of them to be difference makers on a cup run while still on their ELCs.

You don't think we can win a playoff series if any of Kulich, Savoie, Rosen, Ostlund or Benson are in the lineup until 2027?

I think there is a big difference between winning a playoff series with one of the young forwards in the lineup, and thinking that the team is going to be a contender while having several of the five in the lineup in 1 to 3 years and "putting up 1st line numbers.".

It would be amazing if it happened, but I honestly do not expect any of the five to put up 1st line numbers in the NHL in 1 to 3 years. I hope one or two of them may develop into top line talent in 4 or 5 years, but I feel it is pretty important to curb expectations on teenagers, especially physically under-developed prospects. I really do not expect any of them to be sustantial playoff contributors before the age of 23, and for Savoie, Ostlund, and Kulich we are talking about 2027, and 2028 for Benson.

Getting them some playoff experience in the meantime will be part of the development process, but I think we need to be realistic here.

 

[Fjordsen]

I think there is a big difference between winning a playoff series with one of the young forwards in the lineup, and thinking that the team is going to be a contender while having several of the five in the lineup in 1 to 3 years and "putting up 1st line numbers.".

It would be amazing if it happened, but I honestly do not expect any of the five to put up 1st line numbers in the NHL in 1 to 3 years. I hope one or two of them may develop into top line talent in 4 or 5 years, but I feel it is pretty important to curb expectations on teenagers, especially physically under-developed prospects. I really do not expect any of them to be sustantial playoff contributors before the age of 23, and for Savoie, Ostlund, and Kulich we are talking about 2027, and 2028 for Benson.

Getting them some playoff experience in the meantime will be part of the development process, but I think we need to be realistic here.

Why can prospects do this in other teams, but we don’t and we have to wait so many years?

 

[elchud]

The mid 2000s Sabres had most of the forwards between the ages of 24 and 29. Grier was early 30s. And a few young up-and-comers (Roy Pommer Vanek).

It will be similar hopefully for us, except most of the forwards will be between 21 and 29, instead of 24 and 29.

 

[Irie]

Why can prospects do this in other teams, but we don’t and we have to wait so many years?

How many teams have 20 or 21 year old first or second year players dominating the playoffs? Who are these prospects that aren't elite talents?

Beniers was 2nd overall and is a whole lot more physically mature than any of the five kids we are taking about here, and he was pretty overwhelmed with the physicality of the postseason this spring.

Or Matthew Boldy in Minnesota. He played two years of college and is 6'2" 200+ lbs, and he was often overmatched in the Wild's first round exit.

How about Byfield or Lafreniere?

Look at the 2018 draft. Other than Tkachuk and Svechnikov who were top 5 picks, how are the forwards from that first round doing? They are all 23 now and I bet several will break out next season, but we are talking 5+ years after their draft.

Hayton, Wahlstrom, Farabee, Kupari, etc.

The Sabres prospects are teenagers who are not close to physically mature yet. They are likely going to develop on the average development schedule, which is at LEAST 23-24 years old before they are physically capable of doing some of the heavy lifting in the playoffs.

I am not being negative. These kids are fantastic prospects, but I am being realistic. Expecting them to be playoff game changers at 20 or 21 is unrealistic.

 

[Fjordsen]

How many teams have 20 or 21 year old first or second year players dominating the playoffs? Who are these prospects that aren't elite talents?

Beniers was 2nd overall and is a whole lot more physically mature than any of the five kids we are taking about here, and he was pretty overwhelmed with the physicality of the postseason this spring.

Or Matthew Boldy in Minnesota. He played two years of college and is 6'2" 200+ lbs, and he was often overmatched in the Wild's first round exit.

How about Byfield or Lafreniere?

Look at the 2018 draft. Other than Tkachuk and Svechnikov who were top 5 picks, how are the forwards from that first round doing? They are all 23 now and I bet several will break out next season, but we are talking 5+ years after their draft.

Hayton, Wahlstrom, Farabee, Kupari, etc.

The Sabres prospects are teenagers who are not close to physically mature yet. They are likely going to develop on the average development schedule, which is at LEAST 23-24 years old before they are physically capable of doing some of the heavy lifting in the playoffs.

I am not being negative. These kids are fantastic prospects, but I am being realistic. Expecting them to be playoff game changers at 20 or 21 is unrealistic.

In the playoffs? I thought it was about the whole season. But in general, young players can show themselves earlier, you can look at the drafts of 20 and 21, there are such guys. But also the development of each player is individual and he can shoot both at the age of 19 and at 23, it is impossible to predict this in advance.

 

[TageGod]

For 1 year.

You don't think he will grab another one when Okposo and GIrgensons leaves?

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

In the playoffs? I thought it was about the whole season. But in general, young players can show themselves earlier, you can look at the drafts of 20 and 21, there are such guys. But also the development of each player is individual and he can shoot both at the age of 19 and at 23, it is impossible to predict this in advance.

You're literally responding to a thread of posts about 20/21 yr olds having an impact in the playoffs

and hes not saying it cant be done with some young players

he's saying that if theres an entire line of kids, that line is going to get run over, just look at peterka and quinn this season, they got glued to the bench in the third this season for that exact reason

road game in the playoffs and you try to send Savoie, Benson, and Kulich out there against Matthews, Stamkos, Crosby, Tkachuck... brutalized

 

[elchud]

I'm trying to find a playoff team with 7 or more 23-and-under forwards. I can't. I've only focused on 2nd round and up teams so maybe there is a team or a few teams that didn't make the 2nd round.

That doesn't mean we can't be that team, because our forward prospects depth is quite possibly unprecedented.

But real talk, some of these posted lineups just arent gonna happen.

It's gonna be an issue next year. All three of Savoie/Benson/Kulich will be NHL ready next season. I think you trade one of them.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Well, let’s not pretend a ton of teams were built like this current Sabres team. So of course there aren’t a lot of comparables of exact things. Years of sucking and hoarding draft picks, and then having a lot of picks actually hit, puts the Sabres in a bit of a unique situation.

But with an elite center and defensmen, they are in good company.

 

[Djp]

I'm trying to find a playoff team with 7 or more 23-and-under forwards. I can't. I've only focused on 2nd round and up teams so maybe there is a team or a few teams that didn't make the 2nd round.

That doesn't mean we can't be that team, because our forward prospects depth is quite possibly unprecedented.

But real talk, some of these posted lineups just arent gonna happen.

It's gonna be an issue next year. All three of Savoie/Benson/Kulich will be NHL ready next season. I think you trade one of them.

move the bar up a little to like 25 and under or 26 and under

2010 blackhawks had a core from 2002-07 drafts. They made playoffs thr year before.
2012 Kings had a 2003-2008 draft core

2018-23 Sabres draft core could win the cup in 26 or 27

Murray tried to do this with 2008-15 drafts

2008 Bogo
2009 ROR, kane, Lehner, Foligno, deslauriers
2010 Pysyk
2011
2012 Girgs, mccabe
2013 Risto
2014 Reinhart
2015 Eichel

buffalo wasn’t getting much beyond the 1st round thst wasn’t by trade. Especially in 2010-2012 draft years.

2016. Tage, Murray
2017 Mitts, Joker, bryson, UPL
2028 Dahlin, Samuelsson
2019 Cozens, Krebs, Johnson , Rousek
2020 Quinn, Peterka, Levi
2021 Power
2022
2023

Well, let’s not pretend a ton of teams were built like this current Sabres team. So of course there aren’t a lot of comparables of exact things. Years of sucking and hoarding draft picks, and then having a lot of picks actually hit, puts the Sabres in a bit of a unique situation.

But with an elite center and defensmen, they are in good company.

many teams were with a core group of 6 year span of drafts with a few top 5 picks

 

[Fjordsen]

You're literally responding to a thread of posts about 20/21 yr olds having an impact in the playoffs

and hes not saying it cant be done with some young players

he's saying that if theres an entire line of kids, that line is going to get run over, just look at peterka and quinn this season, they got glued to the bench in the third this season for that exact reason

road game in the playoffs and you try to send Savoie, Benson, and Kulich out there against Matthews, Stamkos, Crosby, Tkachuck... brutalized

I'm not saying that next season they should play and go at a PPG pace, plus the development of each player individually, but I don't agree that they will be able to make a contribution only in 27-28 season. Some of them may never even play for Buffalo and will be traded.

 

[CowbellConray]

The other reason to give Power a bridge is that you spread out the potential next contracts for Dahlin & Power. If they both get 8 year deals, then they both hit UFA in 2032 as opposed to at least having Power locked up for 2-3 years beyond that.


I don't see why Power would sign an 8 year deal that pays him less than what Provorov is making and what Dahlin got on a bridge deal.

I dont disagree - I should have clarified, I find it unlikely he would ever sign a deal that we right now would consider a sweetheart long term contract.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

The issue is how can you insulate the kids. You obviously need a match up line, and then your top 2 scoring lines. Can you effectively run a 3rd line that is geared to feast on match ups? Can they get heavy O zone starts against 3rd pairings and lower tier forwards? If you look back at the Afinogenov line, they ran them to create havoc, not to do heavy lifting

 

[TageGod]

I think there is a big difference between winning a playoff series with one of the young forwards in the lineup, and thinking that the team is going to be a contender while having several of the five in the lineup in 1 to 3 years and "putting up 1st line numbers.".

It would be amazing if it happened, but I honestly do not expect any of the five to put up 1st line numbers in the NHL in 1 to 3 years. I hope one or two of them may develop into top line talent in 4 or 5 years, but I feel it is pretty important to curb expectations on teenagers, especially physically under-developed prospects. I really do not expect any of them to be sustantial playoff contributors before the age of 23, and for Savoie, Ostlund, and Kulich we are talking about 2027, and 2028 for Benson.

Getting them some playoff experience in the meantime will be part of the development process, but I think we need to be realistic here.

This is a wildly inaccurate statement. 23 is starting prime years. Even a rookie can be excellent in playoffs. By your logic we have like 2 more years before Quinn and Peterka can be substantial contributors.

 

[HOOats]

This is a wildly inaccurate statement. 23 is starting prime years. Even a rookie can be excellent in playoffs. By your logic we have like 2 more years before Quinn and Peterka can be substantial contributors.

If you have some examples, that would help the conversation along. Irie already shared a bunch of evidence for his perspective in the post quoted below. Like was mentioned before, for all their highlights, Quinn and Peterka were stapled to the bench in crunch time more often than not.

How many teams have 20 or 21 year old first or second year players dominating the playoffs? Who are these prospects that aren't elite talents?

Beniers was 2nd overall and is a whole lot more physically mature than any of the five kids we are taking about here, and he was pretty overwhelmed with the physicality of the postseason this spring.

Or Matthew Boldy in Minnesota. He played two years of college and is 6'2" 200+ lbs, and he was often overmatched in the Wild's first round exit.

How about Byfield or Lafreniere?

Look at the 2018 draft. Other than Tkachuk and Svechnikov who were top 5 picks, how are the forwards from that first round doing? They are all 23 now and I bet several will break out next season, but we are talking 5+ years after their draft.

Hayton, Wahlstrom, Farabee, Kupari, etc.

The Sabres prospects are teenagers who are not close to physically mature yet. They are likely going to develop on the average development schedule, which is at LEAST 23-24 years old before they are physically capable of doing some of the heavy lifting in the playoffs.

I am not being negative. These kids are fantastic prospects, but I am being realistic. Expecting them to be playoff game changers at 20 or 21 is unrealistic.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[MOGlLNY]

Lance saying in the last mailbag that he thinks the Sabres should put Olofsson with Mitts again to start the year had me gasping. This one is a bit better.

 

[brian_griffin]

In the playoffs? I thought it was about the whole season. But in general, young players can show themselves earlier, you can look at the drafts of 20 and 21, there are such guys. But also the development of each player is individual and he can shoot both at the age of 19 and at 23, it is impossible to predict this in advance.

You're literally responding to a thread of posts about 20/21 yr olds having an impact in the playoffs

and hes not saying it cant be done with some young players

he's saying that if theres an entire line of kids, that line is going to get run over, just look at peterka and quinn this season, they got glued to the bench in the third this season for that exact reason

road game in the playoffs and you try to send Savoie, Benson, and Kulich out there against Matthews, Stamkos, Crosby, Tkachuck... brutalized

The issue is how can you insulate the kids. You obviously need a match up line, and then your top 2 scoring lines. Can you effectively run a 3rd line that is geared to feast on match ups? Can they get heavy O zone starts against 3rd pairings and lower tier forwards? If you look back at the Afinogenov line, they ran them to create havoc, not to do heavy lifting

And therein lies the paradox / challenge (and to which ONG anticipated and responded). Even if a forward roster with an oversized number of youngsters is more than likely to get caved in the playoffs, if those are the best players available to get the Sabres to the playoffs, then guess what, those youngsters will play. RE: ONG's response: As long-time hockey fan the Mandalorian said - "this is the way".

 

[TageGod]

If you have some examples, that would help the conversation along. Irie already shared a bunch of evidence for his perspective in the post quoted below. Like was mentioned before, for all their highlights, Quinn and Peterka were stapled to the bench in crunch time more often than not.

Dominant/heavy lifting vs. significant contributor are not the same thing. Quinn and Peterka were drafted in 20, we are just starting the 2023 season, with top 6 expectations of them. That is 3 years from draft. Irie is just being extremely conservative thinking no one can be useful in playoffs before their prime at 23. Savoie Benson etc are also top end picks were referring to.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sorry for the intrusion, but I had a quick question about what the Sabres are currently sitting with. What are fans expecting their D pairs to look like going into next year? I have seen a few Sabres fans say on the main boards that Buffalo may still be interested in adding another RD, but I'm not sure I see the roster spots for it.

My guess is that the D pairs are currently:

Samuelsson-Dahlin
Power-Johnson
Bryson-Clifton
Jokiharju

But I don't think Jokiharju as a healthy scratch makes much sense at all. Is Dahlin going to slide to LD and push Bryson out of the lineup?