Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[TageGod]

Waiting for a pie to be thrown.....

 

[Jim Bob]

I think (maybe) with the possibility of being in a playoff spot by the deadline that'll be when we'll (maybe) land a key piece on D.

Speaking of D most of the last few pages because I've been away from social media a bit... When & where are the Dahlin & Power contracts?

I think the Dahlin deal happens soon after he returns to Buffalo. I expect they announce an 8x$10M extension before camp starts.

Since this is an extension that starts with the 2024-25 season, there is no real rush to put pen to paper even if they have agreed to the terms of the deal.

And the Owen Power deal very well could be like the Cozens situation 12 months ago. The Sabres have an offer on the table and Power and his agent feel like it is lower than what he could prove to be worth if he plays things out. I do not see why it makes sense for Power's side to sign before this season begins.

The odds that he either is bad or has a career changing injury is way smaller than he takes a sizable step forward and earns a larger second contract than the Sabres are offering today.

 

[Fjordsen]

I think the Dahlin deal happens soon after he returns to Buffalo. I expect they announce an 8x$10M extension before camp starts.

Since this is an extension that starts with the 2024-25 season, there is no real rush to put pen to paper even if they have agreed to the terms of the deal.

And the Owen Power deal very well could be like the Cozens situation 12 months ago. The Sabres have an offer on the table and Power and his agent feel like it is lower than what he could prove to be worth if he plays things out. I do not see why it makes sense for Power's side to sign before this season begins.

The odds that he either is bad or has a career changing injury is way smaller than he takes a sizable step forward and earns a larger second contract than the Sabres are offering today.

Unless Power and his agent understand that he will probably play less than Dahlin at PP2, so he can get less than Dahlin. For example, if Adams were to offer Power something like 8 x 8 now, they might think.

 

[TehDoak]

Unless Power and his agent understand that he will probably play less than Dahlin at PP2, so he can get less than Dahlin. For example, if Adams were to offer Power something like 8 x 8 now, they might think.

I still don't understand wanting to get power signed to long term deal immediately. He has no power as a 10.2 RFA. Can't get offersheeted, can't go to arb. The ideal way to keep an elite player is ELC->Bridge->Max Term.

 

[Aladyyn]

I still don't understand wanting to get power signed to long term deal immediately. He has no power as a 10.2 RFA. Can't get offersheeted, can't go to arb. The ideal way to keep an elite player is ELC->Bridge->Max Term.

Some of the figures being thrown around make my head spin. Power is obviously incredibly talented but as of now he's a D who struggles defensively and his offensive prowess doesn't translate to traditional stats. That's not a player type that gets paid top money regardless of how good they are at the things they do.

 

[HOOats]

I still don't understand wanting to get power signed to long term deal immediately. He has no power as a 10.2 RFA. Can't get offersheeted, can't go to arb. The ideal way to keep an elite player is ELC->Bridge->Max Term.

Agreed. Only thing I really care about for players like Dahlin and Power is max number of seasons playing for Buffalo before UFA around 31.

Waiting for a pie to be thrown.....

Could be a fun feature to have a chalk outline of terrible posts that get nuked overnight. As of now, us witnesses are left to deal with the traumatic memory on our own.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

I still don't understand wanting to get power signed to long term deal immediately. He has no power as a 10.2 RFA. Can't get offersheeted, can't go to arb. The ideal way to keep an elite player is ELC->Bridge->Max Term.

For the same reason they extended Tage early, and both Cozens and Sammy to long term deals. They are banking on what they will become, and not what they are now. Getting them at what they hope become below market rates which allows them to retain other players for longer.

 

[Fjordsen]

I still don't understand wanting to get power signed to long term deal immediately. He has no power as a 10.2 RFA. Can't get offersheeted, can't go to arb. The ideal way to keep an elite player is ELC->Bridge->Max Term.

Because Adams has shown he wants to lock up his key players for many years. I think now you can lock up Power at a better price than, for example, in 2-3 years.

 

[Djp]

What players are you thinking (RFA 23-25). Fabbro is the one I'm thinking.

There wont be any defense trades until next offseason (except Joker being moved), unless there is an injury

Nashville a team I also follow ( brother is a STH) …he’s doesnt move the needle. Sure he could click with Power but he’s not a player I’d be moving our 1sts/ RD prospects/ top 10 prospects for.

 

[Djp]

Because Adams has shown he wants to lock up his key players for many years. I think now you can lock up Power at a better price than, for example, in 2-3 years.

I don’t see it.

for best cap flexibility he signs Dahlin first for 8 yrs. Thrn he signs Power to a similar 3 yr bridge Dahlin got. This gives him more space to get a vet to pair with him who has term matching his bridge term. Thrn after that bridge ends Powe gets a raise using the cap space his pair had thrn replace that vet RD with an ELC RD.

I want to do ELC+bridge+ 7-8 yr contract and players starting in nhl st 18-20.

i didnt like Cozens contract because when I ends he will be 29 IIRC.. so I don’t like signing those players to 6+ yrs.

 

[brian_griffin]

Sabres have the far-and-away best core in the league coming together IMO. My question is, who among the forwards goes to secure Power’s long-term partner and really make the team come together?

Benson-Thompson-Savoie
Peterka-Cozens-Quinn
Krebs-Mittelstadt-Tuch
Rosen, Ostlund, Kulich

Power - ?
Samuelsson - Dahlin

Levi

I have to imagine that a package of Tuch plus two of Rosen, Ostlund, and Kulich can acquire pretty much any asset in the league, even a promising top pair defenseman.

I have no interest in shedding Tuch. More preferably, I want to clone him, acquire a Tuch-lite from other teams, and / or develop others like him from within.

I have no desire to shed vets like Tuch (and to a lesser extent Skinner and Girgensons) only to promote talented youngsters. The goal is to win the Stanley Cup, not to perpetually ice a forward lineup with a median age of 23.5 years.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I think there’s a real chance they play Dahlin on the left to start the year.

Roll Dahlin-Samuelsson-Power
Paired Johnson-Clifton-Jokiharju

Keep Stillman and Bosh as the extras

 

[sabres4ever]

I have no interest in shedding Tuch. More preferably, I want to clone him, acquire a Tuch-lite from other teams, and / or develop others like him from within.

I have no desire to shed vets like Tuch (and to a lesser extent Skinner and Girgensons) only to promote talented youngsters. The goal is to win the Stanley Cup, not to perpetually ice a forward lineup with a median age of 23.5 years.

I honestly feel like this is what KA is doing, eschewing older, veteran players, in hopes he can have a roster full of young, relatively inexpensive players.

 

[TageGod]

I honestly feel like this is what KA is doing, eschewing older, veteran players, in hopes he can have a roster full of young, relatively inexpensive players.

Getting Johnson shows how much he values veteran players.

 

[Djp]

I think there’s a real chance they play Dahlin on the left to start the year.

Roll Dahlin-Samuelsson-Power
Paired Johnson-Clifton-Jokiharju

Keep Stillman and Bosh as the extras

i only see that if they acquire a top 4 RD

Dahlin XXX
Samuelsson-Clifton/EU/Joker/Lyub
Power-EJ/ Clifton

Samuelsson and Power rotate playing with EJ.

 

[BFLO]

For the same reason they extended Tage early, and both Cozens and Sammy to long term deals. They are banking on what they will become, and not what they are now. Getting them at what they hope become below market rates which allows them to retain other players for longer.

I think we need to bridge Power until Skinner is off the books. I think our best window to be competitive with this core is going to be while Savoie, Rosen, Kulich, Benson and Ostlund are on ELCs, 2024-2026, which also lines up with the Skinner deal. We need to go for it while these guys are making peanuts on our 3rd line putting up 1st line numbers.

Signing Power long-term now to something like ~$8x8 versus a bridge of ~$6x3 ties up ~$2m avv during the cap crunch of our potential best cup window.

 

[Bendium]

Dahlin should be 8 year.

Power should be going on a 3 yr bridge, with his partner being a vet top 4 eating the remaining second pairing cap space. Example, Ekholm at the last deadline would have been a perfect pairing with 3.5 years left at 6M AAV. Thats the kind of dman I want them to get, and try to match up contracts.

I think a long extension of power now would be a mistake. I don't want him and Dahlin's contract on the same cycle. Some of these long contracts need to be staggered so you dont have too many to deal with at once on the backend of the deals.

 

[CowbellConray]

If Power will take 8 years at 6-6.5, sure you lock him up. 8X8 is risky, although the cap going up in large chunks over the next two years may give reason to push a long term deal NOW as opposed to 2025. We could be looking at 8X10 for Power at that point

 

[Jim Bob]

I don’t see it.

for best cap flexibility he signs Dahlin first for 8 yrs. Thrn he signs Power to a similar 3 yr bridge Dahlin got. This gives him more space to get a vet to pair with him who has term matching his bridge term. Thrn after that bridge ends Powe gets a raise using the cap space his pair had thrn replace that vet RD with an ELC RD.

I want to do ELC+bridge+ 7-8 yr contract and players starting in nhl st 18-20.

i didnt like Cozens contract because when I ends he will be 29 IIRC.. so I don’t like signing those players to 6+ yrs.

The other reason to give Power a bridge is that you spread out the potential next contracts for Dahlin & Power. If they both get 8 year deals, then they both hit UFA in 2032 as opposed to at least having Power locked up for 2-3 years beyond that.

If Power will take 8 years at 6-6.5, sure you lock him up. 8X8 is risky, although the cap going up in large chunks over the next two years may give reason to push a long term deal NOW as opposed to 2025. We could be looking at 8X10 for Power at that point

I don't see why Power would sign an 8 year deal that pays him less than what Provorov is making and what Dahlin got on a bridge deal.

 

[Irie]

I think we need to bridge Power until Skinner is off the books. I think our best window to be competitive with this core is going to be while Savoie, Rosen, Kulich, Benson and Ostlund are on ELCs, 2024-2026, which also lines up with the Skinner deal. We need to go for it while these guys are making peanuts on our 3rd line putting up 1st line numbers.

As great as it may look on paper, it is going to be incredibly difficult to win a playoff series, let alone a cup with five smallish 20-22 year old offensive forwards filling the majority of the bottom 6.

They may make the playoffs, but that is a lineup that likely gets steamrolled in the first round until all those players are older.

I also don't think that expecting them to put up 1st line numbers on the 3rd line while so young is a fair expectation.

It may be several more years before that group of players come into their own and are real assets in the postseason.

 

[TehDoak]

As great as it may look on paper, it is going to be incredibly difficult to win a playoff series, let alone a cup with five smallish 20-22 year old offensive forwards filling the majority of the bottom 6.

They may make the playoffs, but that is a lineup that likely gets steamrolled in the first round until all those players are older.

I also don't think that expecting them to put up 1st line numbers on the 3rd line while so young is a fair expectation.

It may be several more years before that group of players come into their own and are real assets in the postseason.

There is a severe lack of any sort of architecture in the forward group or even on defense. In terms of roles, you have:

Line 1A: scoring line
Line 4: Heavy defensive deployment line. (a pretty mid one, but that at least is a clearly defined group)

The middle six is a bunch of one dimensional forwards and greenway (and sometimes Mittelstadt when he wants to play defense. Cozens has shown flashes, but it's consistent yet). It's a struggle, even on paper, to assemble two competent PK units.

The idea of having, essentially, an ocean of forward prospects is enticing....in competent hands. But, I'm not sure Adams has the detachment from 'his guys' that would be required to make the hard decisions to retool the forward group. This is year 2 of minimal forward changes despite the fact it's been needed.

 

[Irie]

There is a severe lack of any sort of architecture in the forward group or even on defense. In terms of roles, you have:

Line 1A: scoring line
Line 4: Heavy defensive deployment line. (a pretty mid one, but that at least is a clearly defined group)

The middle six is a bunch of one dimensional forwards and greenway (and sometimes Mittelstadt when he wants to play defense. Cozens has shown flashes, but it's consistent yet). It's a struggle, even on paper, to assemble two competent PK units.

The idea of having, essentially, an ocean of forward prospects is enticing....in competent hands. But, I'm not sure Adams has the detachment from 'his guys' that would be required to make the hard decisions to retool the forward group. This is year 2 of minimal forward changes despite the fact it's been needed.

Personally I am glad no major decisions on the young forwards have been made in terms of who gets shipped out. More often than not decisions like that which are made too early see the wrong players moved.

This team is so young, it's going to be a couple more seasons before any of us know what we have in most of the prospects.

There are two philosophies here:

1. Trade a lot of young talent and assets to build the most competitive team around Thompson Tuch and Skinner now and go for it

Or

2. Keep developing the kids, and let the playoff appearances and player roles develop organically.

The first route is instant gratification, but it is harder to do in a small market because drawing and keeping UFAs is difficult.

The Second route will take longer to see results, but should offer a more sustainable, longer window for contending. The draw back here is that there is more waiting and if they draft poorly, the improvement may never come to push the team to the next level. (In Buffalo's case I am not too worried about this as the current pool looks like it is going to be fantastic as they all start to enter their prime).

I am pretty sure Granato and Adams are big on plan #2, while the most vocal posters here are clearly in on plan #1.

 

[TehDoak]

Personally I am glad no major decisions on the young forwards have been made in terms of who gets shipped out. More often than not decisions like that which are made too early see the wrong players moved.

This team is so young, it's going to be a couple more seasons before any of us know what we have in most of the prospects.

There are two philosophies here:

1. Trade a lot of young talent and assets to build the most competitive team around Thompson Tuch and Skinner now and go for it

Or

2. Keep developing the kids, and let the playoff appearances and player roles develop organically.

The first route is instant gratification, but it is harder to do in a small market because drawing and keeping UFAs is difficult.

The Second route will take longer to see results, but should offer a more sustainable, longer window for contending. The draw back here is that there is more waiting and if they draft poorly, the improvement may never come to push the team to the next level. (In Buffalo's case I am not too worried about this as the current pool looks like it is going to be fantastic as they all start to enter their prime).

I am pretty sure Granato and Adams are big on plan #2, while the most vocal posters here are clearly in on plan #1.

Actually the plan should have been continuous improvement, weaponizing cap space and draft capital to add pieces from outside of the org a little bit each offseason the last 3 summers until we have a contending team with a good mix of vets and young players. We had enough draft picks we could have spent 25% of our draft picks and still had a top tier prospect pool.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

That would have been directly opposite of last year's evaluation season to see what kind of players were in the system. You've seen KA make moves to address the D as the evaluation showed how weak it was. He brought back KO and Girgs as they are effective in their role, no matter how much consternation the loudest voices impugned on his ability to recognise needs. As for the other forward slots, you had one of the highest scoring teams in the league with highly skilled prospects percolating

 

[HOOats]

Actually the plan should have been continuous improvement, weaponizing cap space and draft capital to add pieces from outside of the org a little bit each offseason the last 3 summers until we have a contending team with a good mix of vets and young players. We had enough draft picks we could have spent 25% of our draft picks and still had a top tier prospect pool.

2. Keep developing the kids, and let the playoff appearances and player roles develop organically.

The first route is instant gratification, but it is harder to do in a small market because drawing and keeping UFAs is difficult.

The Second route will take longer to see results, but should offer a more sustainable, longer window for contending. The draw back here is that there is more waiting and if they draft poorly, the improvement may never come to push the team to the next level. (In Buffalo's case I am not too worried about this as the current pool looks like it is going to be fantastic as they all start to enter their prime).

You seem to disagree with it, but the plan laid out by Irie is what Adams is doing. The FO clearly believes in its ability to draft and develop prospects into valuable assets, to trade or retain based on need moving forward. They think they can get great value for properly identified, thoroughly developed, close to NHL-ready prospects (or keep them if a role is available).

Last offseason was the first chance to do this, but it didn't match up with their internal clock. Neither did this summer, but maybe by the deadline it will. NJ's volume trade for Meier is what we can expect at some point - a 1st, a 2nd, a developing D+3 former 1st (Mukhamadullin), two former 2nds (Okhotiuk D+4 and Zetterlund D+6), an AHL guy (Johnsson). We'll be able to make two of those if we want over the next three years and that's exciting to me.