Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Sabre the Win]

Surprised we have heard nothing of Power and Dahlin's contracts.

Also the only gripe I have currently with the Sabres off-season is not changing out some of Donny's assistant coaches.

 

[TageGod]

The list of goalies that "developed better in the NHL" is really small and you tend to have survivor bias with the few that worked out OK, especially recently.

If you look at the Vezina winners from the last decade, you have the following:

Ullmark - 85 pro games in Sweden & 127 AHL games
Shesterkin - 117 KHL games & 25 AHL games
MAF - 22 NHL games before going back to the Q, then 66 AHL games.
Hellebuyck - 88 AHL games
Vasilevskiy - 33 KHL games & 37 AHL games
Rinne - 32 Liiga games & 145 AHL games
Bobrovsky - 76 KHL/Russian Pro games
Holtby - 144 ECHL/AHL games
Price - 12 AHL games
Rask - 83 Liiga games & 102 AHL games

League is getting younger, Goalies can too. Two full years in college is not nothing. Levi is just so technically sound, elite lateral movement, and reads plays incredibly well. He needs to adjust to the league more than he needs to "develop". He is already more developed than UPL.

 

[Jim Bob]

League is getting younger, Goalies can too. Two full years in college is not nothing. Levi is just so technically sound, elite lateral movement, and reads plays incredibly well. He needs to adjust to the league more than he needs to "develop". He is already more developed than UPL.

You have no solid data to back up any sort of take like "goalies need less development time in pro leagues outside of the NHL now."

And just because he's better than a goalie who hasn't proven much of anything as a pro does not mean that he is not being rushed to the NHL. In fact, it is evidence that the Sabres might be rushing him to the NHL out of desperation and a lack of better options.

The top 5 vote getters in Vezina voting this year averaged 150 pro games outside of the NHL. The range was 54 (Oettinger) to 244 (Sorokin).

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Dahlin news coming ? wgr was hinting this morning.

 

[Jim Bob]

Surprised we have heard nothing of Power and Dahlin's contracts.

Also the only gripe I have currently with the Sabres off-season is not changing out some of Donny's assistant coaches.

With Dahlin vacationing in Europe, I'm not surprised we haven't heard anything there.

And I won't be surprised if Power takes the Cozens path and waits to try and improve the Sabres offer by playing well. There is no real reason for Power to sign a deal this summer.

 

[TageGod]

You have no solid data to back up any sort of take like "goalies need less development time in pro leagues outside of the NHL now."

And just because he's better than a goalie who hasn't proven much of anything as a pro does not mean that he is not being rushed to the NHL. In fact, it is evidence that the Sabres might be rushing him to the NHL out of desperation and a lack of better options.

The top 5 vote getters in Vezina voting this year averaged 150 pro games outside of the NHL. The range was 54 (Oettinger) to 244 (Sorokin).

I never actually said it as a factual statement, just a possibility. in the 7 games Levi played, what did you see that he needed to improve on? I just don't see the worry of rushing Levi. If you send him to the AHL what do you tell him? Sorry you are better than UPL and Comrie in every way but you can't stay here because history says you need to develop in AHL?

 

[Jim Bob]

I never actually said it as a factual statement, just a possibility. in the 7 games Levi played, what did you see that he needed to improve on? I just don't see the worry of rushing Levi. If you send him to the AHL what do you tell him? Sorry you are better than UPL and Comrie in every way but you can't stay here because history says you need to develop in AHL?

7 games is not a large enough sample size to say that he has nothing that can be improved upon by playing in the AHL.

In 2 of his 7 starts, he had a Save% below .875. Working on being more consistent is one thing that I believe he could work on in Rochester. He only had to deal with one back-to-back situation. And he had an .857 Save% in the second game. So, that is another thing that he might need to work on. And given the schedule in the AHL, he could get plenty of opportunities for that.

And what are you telling Levi by not having great pro options outside of him? If he isn't really ready for the NHL and you force him there, good luck.

Buffalo Sabres 2002-03 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2002-03 Buffalo Sabres playing in the NHL.

www.hockeydb.com

I mean, the Sabres have never rushed a goalie out of college before...

 

[Dingo44]

The list of goalies that "developed better in the NHL" is really small and you tend to have survivor bias with the few that worked out OK, especially recently.

If you look at the Vezina winners from the last decade, you have the following:

Ullmark - 85 pro games in Sweden & 127 AHL games
Shesterkin - 117 KHL games & 25 AHL games
MAF - 22 NHL games before going back to the Q, then 66 AHL games.
Hellebuyck - 88 AHL games
Vasilevskiy - 33 KHL games & 37 AHL games
Rinne - 32 Liiga games & 145 AHL games
Bobrovsky - 76 KHL/Russian Pro games
Holtby - 144 ECHL/AHL games
Price - 12 AHL games
Rask - 83 Liiga games & 102 AHL games

Levi isn't 18. College development is development too.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Stats are nice but have no applicability to individual players. I agree the Levi situation is atypical, and I’d do things differently in my mind. BUT, no one can say he is being rushed as that implies he isn’t ready, and none of us know that.

The most interesting thing to me is we all wanted Levi to turn pro in 2022. He was ready after his dominate NCAA season. Had he gone to the AHL and dominated, a lot of people would be less hesitant. But he instead played another NCAA year. Why is everyone placing so much emphasis on the fact his last year was the NCAA (which isn’t okay and makes this unprecedented) instead of the AHL (which would have been okay and made this more typical).

I don’t think the difference between Levi being in the NCAA instead of Rochester warrants such a distinction.

Levi isn't 18. College development is development too.

Yea this is what I’m getting at. Why is there such a huge difference between 2 NCAA seasons verse 1 NCAA season and 1 AHL season. We don’t do that to forwards or defensmen…

 

[TageGod]

7 games is not a large enough sample size to say that he has nothing that can be improved upon by playing in the AHL.

In 2 of his 7 starts, he had a Save% below .875. Working on being more consistent is one thing that I believe he could work on in Rochester. He only had to deal with one back-to-back situation. And he had an .857 Save% in the second game. So, that is another thing that he might need to work on. And given the schedule in the AHL, he could get plenty of opportunities for that.

And what are you telling Levi by not having great pro options outside of him? If he isn't really ready for the NHL and you force him there, good luck.

Buffalo Sabres 2002-03 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2002-03 Buffalo Sabres playing in the NHL.

www.hockeydb.com

I mean, the Sabres have never rushed a goalie out of college before...

This was the 2022-2023 Buffalo Sabres season. His bad games were UPL and Comrie's normal. We all know Sabres team D dragged down Goalie stats.

 

[Beerz]

With Dahlin vacationing in Europe, I'm not surprised we haven't heard anything there.

And I won't be surprised if Power takes the Cozens path and waits to try and improve the Sabres offer by playing well. There is no real reason for Power to sign a deal this summer.

There is definitely a reason for Power to sign a deal this summer.

I want him to.

 

[Dirty Dog]

There is definitely a reason for Power to sign a deal this summer.

I want him to.

Good enough reason for me

 

[Sabre the Win]

7 games is not a large enough sample size to say that he has nothing that can be improved upon by playing in the AHL.

In 2 of his 7 starts, he had a Save% below .875. Working on being more consistent is one thing that I believe he could work on in Rochester. He only had to deal with one back-to-back situation. And he had an .857 Save% in the second game. So, that is another thing that he might need to work on. And given the schedule in the AHL, he could get plenty of opportunities for that.

And what are you telling Levi by not having great pro options outside of him? If he isn't really ready for the NHL and you force him there, good luck.

Buffalo Sabres 2002-03 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2002-03 Buffalo Sabres playing in the NHL.

www.hockeydb.com

I mean, the Sabres have never rushed a goalie out of college before...

I don't see why they can't test him out and if he's not ready and looks out of place then send him down. I don't think getting in some more NHL games is a surefire way of ruining him.

 

[Jim Bob]

Levi isn't 18. College development is development too.

Even if you add in Levi's 100 college starts, that is not a huge amount of development games played.

Oettinger has been one of the fastest developing goalies of late and he had 109 NCAA GP and 44 AHL GP before he split time with Khudobin in 2020-21 in Dallas.

Swayman has been fast tracked, but has had Ullmark as his partner the last two years so there was no pressure for him to carry the load.

And we saw that has happened with Spencer Knight even with Bob in Florida.

Rushing guys by and large does not work as well as letting guys mature in pro leagues outside of the NHL.

Yea this is what I’m getting at. Why is there such a huge difference between 2 NCAA seasons verse 1 NCAA season and 1 AHL season. We don’t do that to forwards or defensmen…

Goalies are different.

I don't see why they can't test him out and if he's not ready and looks out of place then send him down. I don't think getting in some more NHL games is a surefire way of ruining him.

The problem has been the whole approach to the goalie position.

Even if he isn't ready, the only options they have today is UPL & Comrie. For a team that expects to make the playoffs.

And I am not worried about ruining Levi. I am worried that they are not taking the smart path and they NEED Levi to be ready this year and there is a healthy chance that he looks like Miller did in his first full pro season and that Levi needs time in the AHL to mature.

But, the Sabres have not placed themselves in a position where that is a great option.

 

[Jim Bob]

There is definitely a reason for Power to sign a deal this summer.

I want him to.

I doubt Power or his agent care what you want.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Even if you add in Levi's 100 college starts, that is not a huge amount of development games played.

Oettinger has been one of the fastest developing goalies of late and he had 109 NCAA GP and 44 AHL GP before he split time with Khudobin in 2020-21 in Dallas.

Swayman has been fast tracked, but has had Ullmark as his partner the last two years so there was no pressure for him to carry the load.

And we saw that has happened with Spencer Knight even with Bob in Florida.

Rushing guys by and large does not work as well as letting guys mature in pro leagues outside of the NHL.

You aren’t wrong that stats or examples don’t favor the Sabres decision. But it doesn’t mean anything to an individual decision. The Sabres are the only ones that are behind the scenes and assessing his readiness.

For example, the stats and precedence absolutely did not favor the Sabres decision to give Tage Thompson a chance at 24 in the top 6 after failing for four years. Nor did they favor putting Kulich in the AHL at 18. Nor did the stats or precedence suggest Mitts prosecution last year. The list of failure stories for these three examples outweigh the success stories tremendously.

I hear you, but I think the Sabres deserve a little deference on player development with their track record the last three years.



And one last point. Listing examples of vezina goalies and their development is a bit misleading as we have no idea how those goalies would have done had they had Levi’s path. We just don’t know

 

[Fjordsen]

They can send Levi to the AHL because he's only goalie we have that doesn't have to go through waivers. I also doubt that they are going to play with three goalies, nobody does that, especially at a long distance.

I have no problem with Levi in both the NHL and the AHL. But our other two goalies are simply not what we need at this stage. That's why acquiring goaltender this offseason is so important, it can be a key decision to make or not make the playoffs.

 

[Jim Bob]

You aren’t wrong that stats or examples don’t favor the Sabres decision. But it doesn’t mean anything to an individual decision. The Sabres are the only ones that are behind the scenes and assessing his readiness.

For example, the stats and precedence absolutely did not favor the Sabres decision to give Tage Thompson a chance at 24 in the top 6 after failing for four years. Nor did they favor putting Kulich in the AHL at 18. Nor did the stats or precedence suggest Mitts prosecution last year. The list of failure stories for these three examples outweigh the success stories tremendously.

I hear you, but I think the Sabres deserve a little deference on player development with their track record the last three years.

And one last point. Listing examples of vezina goalies and their development is a bit misleading as we have no idea how those goalies would have done had they had Levi’s path. We just don’t know

How has UPL's development gone the past three years?

Developing goalies is different than developing forwards and defense. And the Sabres track record of late with goalies has not been great.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'd prefer UPL and Levi to split Rochester and have Comrie back someone up (Carter Hart?), and then have someone from Rochester displace Comrie as the season progresses.

 

[Beerz]

I'd prefer UPL and Levi to split Rochester and have Comrie back someone up (Carter Hart?), and then have someone from Rochester displace Comrie as the season progresses.

You'll lose UPL

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

You'll lose UPL

Yep. Seems like the best two-man scenario is Levi in Rochester until a trade sends UPL/Comrie out.

 

[Dirty Dog]

How has UPL's development gone the past three years?

Developing goalies is different than developing forwards and defense. And the Sabres track record of late with goalies has not been great.

Again, I don’t disagree that precedence or stats don’t support Levi succeeding in the NHL. (And UPL’s development fits into that bucket. I don’t know, I think he’s development has been fine given where he was 3 years ago?) I understand that’s your point, and I don’t think anyone is disagreeing.

I disagree if anyone is taking that and saying what the Sabres are doing is wrong, that it is rushing levi, or that it won’t work. We just don’t know that, and stats don’t have any value when applied to an individual. I would play it safe and put Levi in the AHL, but I’m not behind the scenes.

 

[Der Jaeger]

You'll lose UPL

Maybe

 

[BFLO]

I don't see why they can't test him out and if he's not ready and looks out of place then send him down. I don't think getting in some more NHL games is a surefire way of ruining him.

I think that's fine for Levi's development.

I think the problem most of us have is that UPL & Comrie do not inspire much confidence as the starters once Levi is sent down, or in platoon with Levi.

 

[Butt Ox]

Levi made his own Sabres lid; I like that I'll do it myself attitude. I imagine his attention to detail may be a little bit different than what we have gotten used to.