Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Rookies of the month for the NHL this year -

October
Shane Pinto

November
Logan Thompson

December
Pyotr Kochetkov

January
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

February
Mads Søgaard

March
Stuart Skinner

Interesting that 5 of the 6 were goalies.

 

[Chainshot]

Interesting that 5 of the 6 were goalies.

I'd also say that I don't think fans of any of the four non-UPL tenders are thinking their guy needs to go.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

I'd also say that I don't think fans of any of the four non-UPL tenders are thinking their guy needs to go.

Probably not, and they all had their ups and downs. Especially Sogaard and Kochetkov

 

[Chainshot]

Probably not, and they all had their ups and downs. Especially Sogaard and Kochetkov

Sogaard is in a similar spot as Luukkonen in that he still needs starts to work on his game. But yeah, it was a goalie heavy rookie representation and I know the usual is for the player with the most points to win the Calder, but I would give it to Skinner and had Thompson as a darkhorse for that until he got hurt. Both meant a lot to their individual teams.

Our level of scrutiny on the Sabres certainly has lead to there being very little quarter given to any of the tenders.

 

[hizzoner]

In assessing the Sabres and how they match up against playoff teams it seems to me that playing a transition team the Sabres match up well. It is in the cycling part of the game and dealing with heavy forechecking that we are less successful. Girgensons and Okposo are our answer to the former and are not always successful. We do not have a super quick first step Dman to beat the first forechecker and go--Jokiharu has not done it although it was hoped he would. Dahlin is great once he gets going but on the eye test depends on puck skill rather than first step speed and can get boxed in by a heavy forecheck. We need to be able to handle the schemes that different teams throw at us and in determining draft choices we have the difficult choice of looking at whether a smaller but confident, skilled, quick first step Dman with vision is worth going after rather than a more complete DMan or heavier 2 way F.

 

[Gabrielor]

Greenway would be a good replacement. A player with size who goes to the net and also has good defensive chops. Things we need more of. He obviously isn’t going to match VO goal totals. But he doesn’t have to. Hopefully he got acclimated to the system in the post deadline stretch and can build on it next season.

I’m not dismissing VO’s goal scoring either. It has value and on the right team he could be a valuable piece. But goal scoring is one thing we already have in abundance with a few players having upside potential. Guys like Quinn/Peterka are just scratching the surface and Savoie/Kulich are on the way.

Fair point.

Certainly interested to see if he's actually a top 9 forward.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

There were also 17 starts by rookie goalie UPL in December and January that propelled us into a playoff spot post 8gm losing streak. Where he went 12-4-1 with a .907sv% and forced a 3 headed goalie situation because he was playing well.

Then he struggled badly post 10 day All star break. As did a good chunk of the team if you recall. Rookie goalie struggling for a stretch is not too shocking. But on balance it was a good development year for UPL.

UPL played well and poorly in the same system with the same players. Both need work but there was enough there form UPL to hope he can build on it.

This is why I'm only interested in moving him for a Will Borgen-type. Team defense needs to be better, a lot better. Goaltending will improve as a result.

 

[Ace]

I'd also say that I don't think fans of any of the four non-UPL tenders are thinking their guy needs to go.

Are any of them faced with a reality that the other NHL goalie is a rookie?

UPL as a guy developing in the NHL is one thing if he’s doing it with a steady vet. Not a guy developing in the NHL who needs a steady vet.

Agree with it or not…the goaltending has become about what Levi needs…and what he needs is not a backup who the team didn’t trust to play down the stretch. He needs a veteran who can steady the ship when he struggles as a rookie. That isn’t UPL. That isn’t Comrie.

Vanek said it best this week when Peters said he thinks they’ll come to camp with just these three goalies. “Well…then they’ll miss the playoffs again“. He’s right.

 

[Dirty Dog]

@Chainshot made a good point (unless I’m mistake) that the sabres probably don’t want to be breaking two rookie forwards in when camp breaks any more. We saw the downside of that this year with Quinn and Peterka, as there is going to be ups and downs and necessary sheltering. So when you have two rookies, the negatives are doubled.

This means it’s pretty likely we are seeing a rookie forward start the year in Buffalo. If not, you’d see two rookies in 2024 when we should be a serious contender.

I think we can bet on that rookie being Savoie. He can’t go to Rochester and is further along than Kulich imo. With Kulich being the 2024 rookie (I’m sure he’ll get a taste at a few points next year).

I think Ostlund and Rosen are 2025+ players. And I bet both won’t even be Sabres prospects by 2025 (one or the other will be)

 

[Gras]

People have very short memories.

I think selective would be the more operative word.

 

[joshjull]

@Chainshot made a good point (unless I’m mistake) that the sabres probably don’t want to be breaking two rookie forwards in when camp breaks any more. We saw the downside of that this year with Quinn and Peterka, as there is going to be ups and downs and necessary sheltering. So when you have two rookies, the negatives are doubled.

This means it’s pretty likely we are seeing a rookie forward start the year in Buffalo. If not, you’d see two rookies in 2024 when we should be a serious contender.

I think we can bet on that rookie being Savoie. He can’t go to Rochester and is further along than Kulich imo. With Kulich being the 2024 rookie (I’m sure he’ll get a taste at a few points next year).

I think Ostlund and Rosen are 2025+ players. And I bet both won’t even be Sabres prospects by 2025 (one or the other will be)

What was the downside? It worked. It was also the plan for the season to have them rotate until they figured it out enough to be regular.

Are any of them faced with a reality that the other NHL goalie is a rookie?

UPL as a guy developing in the NHL is one thing if he’s doing it with a steady vet. Not a guy developing in the NHL who needs a steady vet.

Agree with it or not…the goaltending has become about what Levi needs…and what he needs is not a backup who the team didn’t trust to play down the stretch. He needs a veteran who can steady the ship when he struggles as a rookie. That isn’t UPL. That isn’t Comrie.

Vanek said it best this week when Peters said he thinks they’ll come to camp with just these three goalies. “Well…then they’ll miss the playoffs again“. He’s right.

If its truly whats best for Levi then he should be starting in the AHL.

 

[Chainshot]

@Chainshot made a good point (unless I’m mistake) that the sabres probably don’t want to be breaking two rookie forwards in when camp breaks any more. We saw the downside of that this year with Quinn and Peterka, as there is going to be ups and downs and necessary sheltering. So when you have two rookies, the negatives are doubled.

This means it’s pretty likely we are seeing a rookie forward start the year in Buffalo. If not, you’d see two rookies in 2024 when we should be a serious contender.

I think we can bet on that rookie being Savoie. He can’t go to Rochester and is further along than Kulich imo. With Kulich being the 2024 rookie (I’m sure he’ll get a taste at a few points next year).

I think Ostlund and Rosen are 2025+ players. And I bet both won’t even be Sabres prospects by 2025 (one or the other will be)

Did I? Criminy, my memory is not what it should be on. I will blame my meds.

I think they aren't looking to break in two next year. Savoie seems more ready in viewing, even if he's playing a level lower. Kulich has to figure out his defensive zone game and they have the luxury of having time to figure that out.

 

[Dirty Dog]

What was the downside? It worked. It was also the plan for the season to have them rotate until they figured it out enough to be regular.

I think the downside of a rookie is pretty clear, they have times of being completely ineffective. Which is fine. But having two can be tough because it’s a lot to account for. There were stretches where both Quinn and Peterka were slumping at the same time.

I think it was good for this year and it worked out well. But it was a developmental year. I doubt the Sabres do it again this year or next.

 

[Jacob582]

When I watched the toronto goal highlights I thought to myself: wow.....face offs.

Then I hear EF in today's 32 thoughts:
"I can't believe how many goals are being scored off face off plays".

As we know, another area the Sabres need to get better at. Seems critical in the playoffs.

I hope they acquire a PK faceoff center wizard. I'm thinking they will go with Tage, Cozens, Mittelstadt/Krebs, Savoie. Slightly better without Jost, but.....

 

[Chainshot]

When I watched the toronto goal highlights I thought to myself: wow.....face offs.

Then I hear EF in today's 32 thoughts:
"I can't believe how many goals are being scored off face off plays".

As we know, another area the Sabres need to get better at. Seems critical in the playoffs.

I hope they acquire a PK faceoff center wizard. I'm thinking they will go with Tage, Cozens, Mittelstadt/Krebs, Savoie. Slightly better without Jost, but.....

They aren't going to be better without getting their top centers to focus on getting better at it.

 

[joshjull]

They aren't going to be better without getting their top centers to focus on getting better at it.

Their wingers are options as well. I know Landeskog has been one of the top face-off guys for the Avs. But that still falls into your point about working on it.

 

[Dingo44]

Their wingers are options as well. I know Landeskog has been one of the top face-off guys for the Avs. But that still falls into your point about working on it.

Mike Peca should be running an extra hour of faceoff training every day during camp.

 

[Jim Bob]

Rookies of the month for the NHL this year -

October
Shane Pinto

November
Logan Thompson

December
Pyotr Kochetkov

January
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

February
Mads Søgaard

March
Stuart Skinner

Five different goalies.

 

[TehDoak]

They aren't going to be better without getting their top centers to focus on getting better at it.

They either need to bring in a vet faceoff guy or at the very minimum hire an old vet faceoff guy as a skills coach. I wonder how many of the dirty tricks faceoff guys use are taught at skills camps vs trade secrets that are passed down.

 

[Chainshot]

Their wingers are options as well. I know Landeskog has been one of the top face-off guys for the Avs. But that still falls into your point about working on it.

Yeah someone on the team needs to take the lead, but the idea that just one guy can come in and singlehandedly solve this.

 

[Chainshot]

They either need to bring in a vet faceoff guy or at the very minimum hire an old vet faceoff guy as a skills coach. I wonder how many of the dirty tricks faceoff guys use are taught at skills camps vs trade secrets that are passed down.

It's beyond just one guy to solve.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

We had great FO guys in the past. Vladimir Sobotka, Cody Eakin... Just saying.

Depending on what happens with Girgs/Jost/Okposo... I can't imagine all three leaving - but you're going to have to replace any of them that do leave & you're not going to do it from within.

 

[TehDoak]

We had great FO guys in the past. Vladimir Sobotka, Cody Eakin... Just saying.

Depending on what happens with Girgs/Jost/Okposo... I can't imagine all three leaving - but you're going to have to replace any of them that do leave & you're not going to do it from within.

I'm on board as Cody Eakin as Faceoff coach and special mullet advisor

 

[brian_griffin]

I think there's a world where they can get an older top 4 Dman that can be part of the now, while also getting a younger one that can be part of the future. I'm not advocating for Petry as I'm not fond of his play the last several years, but I'm very on board with someone like Tanev.

I think acquiring a younger top 4 will prove difficult right now. However, acquiring a younger RD with top 4 potential and a veteran top 4 as a stopgap until the younger one is ready is a good option from my view. Their oldest Dman is Lyubushkin who just turned 29, and he hasn't even played 300 NHL games yet. By comparison someone like Trouba is the same age and has over 700 games of experience.

I just think they need a vet on the blueline given how young most of them are.

I agree with the thought process; read on...

If we're making lists and checking them twice:

Specifically guys who play on the right side -

Brandon Carlo - With a possible cap crunch in Boston they may need to make moves though I doubt he's available in trade within the division but he's a fine RD.
Kyle Clifton - UFA who plays with the snarl they've wanted out of some of their depth guys but a slice above all of Stillman/Lyubushkin/Fitzgerald
Damon Severson - UFA who has been a very solid 2-way guy for the Devils for a long time, seemingly about to be squeezed out of Jersey's lineup.
Will Borgen - My desire, not indicative of his ability to play 2nd pairing minutes or even if he's available from Seattle. I want Spud back.
Mackenzie Weegar - The new contract is a doozy and flies in the face of what Adams has said, but his rush defense and in-zone defense are better than anything the Sabres have had in almost 15 years in that regard.
Matt Roy - Would have to be in trade, LA trying to make room for their influx of talented prospects.
Connor Murphy - The Hawks are in the throws of the tank, and this guy has been on the acquire list now for so long it feels like a Regier trade in the making.
Dante Fabbro - History as Josi's partner, potentially on the outs in Nashville who are shuffling things around.
Matt Dumba - UFA who probably gets more money than I would be comfortable with.
Chris Tanev - Trade protection aside, he did play at RIT and he's from Ontario. Then there is his age and that he will be hurt/miss at least 20 games a season.
Scott Mayfield - UFA who probably gets too much in term/AAV and plays in a highly structured team on the Island.
Jordan Spence - Also a trade and one of the few non-roster guys who intrigues me.
Braden Schneider - Very young and while more proven than Spence, I like Spence more at the moment.

Now for the alternate idea of finding a partner for Dahlin and shifting Samuelsson to Power's pair:

Nikita Zadorov - Yes, I'm sober. Yes, he has struggled on less structured teams. Yes, there is only one season until he hits UFA. Yes, he is physically dominant and a bit of a dumbass at times. Yes, he says he enjoyed his time in Buffalo and felt the organization and the owners treated him top notch when he was here the first time. No, this isn't only because he might put the snarl into the blueline that is clearly missing, but it would be entertaining as f***.
Erik Brannstrom - Dahlin's old U20 partner who is nothing like a face smashing baby eater, but he's actually been good at defense in a depth role for the Sens... This? This would be a gamble but man, I would be interested in making that bet.
Samuel Girard - Cup winning, signed for $5M for a while yet, long-standing possible move from the Avs has been floated around... and they already have a uniform that would fit if they cut Bryson loose.

Nice table, thorough work as always.
I've long advocated ambivalence to what side Dahlin plays - whatever makes the overall defense better.
Pairing Samuelsson with Power would help as well.

My thought process for fixing the defense is to either get Joker and Bryson down to 7th/8th or else out the door as part of deal(s) to get someone to pair with Power (or Dahlin if Samuelsson is Power's partner).

With an outlook to beyond next season their total defense cost will grow to >$35M (Dahlin long-term, Power bridge (?). I think they can afford one deal with cost similar to Samuelsson (e.g., pick your favorite Flame defender who either lacks a M-NTC or is willing to waive). But the rest (#5,6,7) will need to be ELCs or low-cost QOs for guys who have no leverage for a richer contract - which makes me wary that Bryson and/or Joker will be moved out. They made to keep one or both for cost reasons.



View attachment 692520

I wonder what the over/under is on the average age of the 23 man roster on opening night of the 23-24 season?

I did that calculation a month-plus ago, using only the active players still on the roster (no Fitz, Sheahan, Bjork, leaving the AHL guys like Pilut off), replacing #41,#29,#71, wanting #21 and #28 resigned but assuming their replacements would be similar age regardless, adding Levi (and maybe Ryan Johnson?) and aging everyone else 1 year, and basically the mean and median ages of the roster was the same on opening day 2023 as it was this past season 2022.

What do people think the value of Olofsson is? A 3rd round pick? A 5-6 defenseman?

Ship him to Vegas and let him play with his buddy.

Yes, if traded this offseason.

<snipped much of a frustrated but well-thought rebuttal>

You act like Adams should be able to walk up to the NHL trade vending machine, put in a 1st round token, a Isak Rosen token and a Victor Olofsson token, push the "solid top 4 D" or "Franchise goalie" buttons and poof, problem solved.

What are actual realistic solutions? Complaining about something without offering a realistic course of action is counter-productive.

These threads need less jaded complaining/doom forecasting and more constructive problem solving.

I've been working on a patentable design for just such a machine!!! Problem was for my v1.0 design, Doug Armstrong put some lead slugs with Sobatka and Berglund heads, another slug with a giraffe sticker on it, banged my machine on the side three times, kicked it once, and was able to reach up into the machine and pull out Ryan O'Reilly.

In assessing the Sabres and how they match up against playoff teams it seems to me that playing a transition team the Sabres match up well. It is in the cycling part of the game and dealing with heavy forechecking that we are less successful. Girgensons and Okposo are our answer to the former and are not always successful. We do not have a super quick first step Dman to beat the first forechecker and go--Jokiharu has not done it although it was hoped he would. Dahlin is great once he gets going but on the eye test depends on puck skill rather than first step speed and can get boxed in by a heavy forecheck. We need to be able to handle the schemes that different teams throw at us and in determining draft choices we have the difficult choice of looking at whether a smaller but confident, skilled, quick first step Dman with vision is worth going after rather than a more complete DMan or heavier 2 way F.

Great assessment. Dahlin's first move is often not quickness, it's elusiveness, many times almost waiting until the forechecker is upon him before sidestepping. Bryson is quick like a waterbug, but beyond that has a limited toolbox. To the forward aspect, I expect #22-24-77 to be split up with one of them paired with #37 and a possession puck-hound added to each line to complete them. Greenway is likely one, an outside add would be the other.
Related, my assessment is BUF has a really hard time gaining the zone against a team which puts 4 players on the blue line, regardless of whether the 5th is a rabbit chaser forechecker, or a d-man hanging back below the blue line.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

They also need their wingers to be more physical on the faceoffs as the vast majority are contested but are lost due to uninspired actions on the wing