Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[dortt]

I'm not looking at the counting stats. I'm looking at the advanced stats that attempt to take shot difficulty faced into consideration.

Money Puck Goals saved above expected/60:

Ilya Samsonov 0.436
Devon Levi 0.434
Alexandar Georgiev 0.355
Darcy Kuemper 0.164
Vitek Vanecek 0.105
Craig Anderson 0.016
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen -0.157
Ville Husso -0.274
Eric Comrie -0.372
Jack Campbell -0.542

So yes, their counting stats would have been worse playing in Buffalo, but still better than what our goalies produced.

Husso fell apart over the course of the season, couldn't handle a starters work load.

ooof

Man is Comrie rather low. Far worse than UPL, which was also borne out on SP and W/L.

Levi had too low of a sample for that to be statistically meaningful, however

 

[Ace]

You post everyday how Adams blew it with Comrie last offseason, but last offseason you seemed to be on the Comrie bandwagon before the signing:





Everyday you also repeat the same narrative that so and so sucks, and Adams blew this and that, but what are your realistic solutions? Just saying a "real goalie" and "A top 4 defender" is not an actual solution.

Every team is looking for the same thing, so these things are not easy to acquire. Buffalo is on most players NTCs and no top level talent seems to prioritize signing here.

You act like Adams should be able to walk up to the NHL trade vending machine, put in a 1st round token, a Isak Rosen token and a Victor Olofsson token, push the "solid top 4 D" or "Franchise goalie" buttons and poof, problem solved.

What are actual realistic solutions? Complaining about something without offering a realistic course of action is counter-productive.

These threads need less jaded complaining/doom forecasting and more constructive problem solving.

I solved these problems ten f***ing months ago. This organization needs higher standards and someone willing to address the holes.

commentary is just that. comments reflecting Adams inaction.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm not looking at the counting stats. I'm looking at the advanced stats that attempt to take shot difficulty faced into consideration.

Money Puck Goals saved above expected/60:

Ilya Samsonov 0.436
Devon Levi 0.434
Alexandar Georgiev 0.355
Darcy Kuemper 0.164
Vitek Vanecek 0.105
Craig Anderson 0.016
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen -0.157
Ville Husso -0.274
Eric Comrie -0.372
Jack Campbell -0.542

So yes, their counting stats would have been worse playing in Buffalo, but still better than what our goalies produced.

Husso fell apart over the course of the season, couldn't handle a starters work load.

You are still assuming that their advanced stats would be the same in Buffalo as they were elsewhere.

If you look at Comrie's advanced numbers in Winnipeg versus what he had last season with the Sabres it shows that you cannot assume that that would be the case.

Also, look at Georgiev's advanced numbers last year in NY versus this year in Colorado, too. Environment and usage impacts both traditional and advanced stats.

 

[Reddawg]

Personally I'm not trading Savoie for anything less than a franchise-altering deal. He's a special player...I see so much Danny Briere in him and I feel like the team that gives him the right opportunities is going to reap all the benefits. Can only hope it continues to be us.

 

[Chainshot]

You are still assuming that their advanced stats would be the same in Buffalo as they were elsewhere.

If you look at Comrie's advanced numbers in Winnipeg versus what he had last season with the Sabres it shows that you cannot assume that that would be the case.

Also, look at Georgiev's advanced numbers last year in NY versus this year in Colorado, too. Environment and usage impacts both traditional and advanced stats.

That's one of those things that the Clear Sight folks get into - where are shots coming from, what sort of chances is a team yielding vs what is a netminder good at stopping. PaMo teams aren't exactly free-wheeling groups that ignore their own zone vs. whatever we see in Buffalo right now.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I love Mitts and he has nowhere near the potential to be the player Tage is. He isn’t near the goal scorer and doesn’t have near the ability to take over a game.

You don’t trade 1Cs on great contracts. And you certainly don’t trade them for a package headlined by a goalie and change

We've also been on the search for center depth for what feels like an eternity. I dont want to part with any of our centers while we can afford a wealth of depth, and Tage would be the last center traded.

 

[Mattilaus]

These threads need less jaded complaining/doom forecasting and more constructive problem solving.

Don't be ridiculous. This is the b****ing and whining thread. What do you think this is? Some sort of speculation thread or something?

 

[joshjull]

Post-presser:

If they want to re-sign Z and Okposo (and I understand the reasons why)...

...Greenway is not the replacement for Olofsson. Gotta do better than that.

Greenway would be a good replacement. A player with size who goes to the net and also has good defensive chops. Things we need more of. He obviously isn’t going to match VO goal totals. But he doesn’t have to. Hopefully he got acclimated to the system in the post deadline stretch and can build on it next season.

I’m not dismissing VO’s goal scoring either. It has value and on the right team he could be a valuable piece. But goal scoring is one thing we already have in abundance with a few players having upside potential. Guys like Quinn/Peterka are just scratching the surface and Savoie/Kulich are on the way.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

Greenway would be a good replacement. A player with size who goes to the net and also has good defensive chops. Things we need more of. He obviously isn’t going to match VO goal totals. But he doesn’t have to. Hopefully he got acclimated to the system in the post deadline stretch and can build on it next season.

I’m not dismissing VO’s goal scoring either. It has value and on the right team he could be a valuable piece. But goal scoring is one thing we already have in abundance with a few players having upside potential. Guys like Quinn/Peterka are just scratching the surface and Savoie/Kulich are on the way.

I would hazard to say that if Mitts can continue his current level of play, then he would be Vo's "replacement." What else to VO bring to the table beside that wicked shot of his? His 2D play won't be missed that much.

 

[Grouch]

Circling back to Olofsson....I don't think he's going to have much value, if at all.

Olofsson, to be productive, needs PP time and high offensive starts.

On contenders, those sheltered minutes (and cap space) is already all used up. If they need scoring depth, they will try to use ELC contracts and if that doesn't work out, add at the deadline. Scoring depth is one of the easiest pieces to get.

The target audience is going to be bad teams. Teams that want to pick up scoring for cheap and flip him at the deadline for assets. Off the top of my head, Montreal, Arizona, Chicago, maybe San Jose if they want to replace some of the scoring they lost from Meier. And they won't be paying much. Sheary/Vesey prices. A 3rd if we retain some is probably about spot on. Because they are going to try to turn him into a 2nd at the deadline.

he also could be a toss in for a bigger trade if we are taking on salary to even things out.

VO (50%), JJP, UPL to AZ

Crouse and Vejimelka to BUF

I know most here wouldn't bail on JJP, but I'm least excited about what he can turn into vs guys like Quinn, Kulich, Savoie, Krebs (specific role), and Crouse fills a need. I'd even throw in picks if necessary to dump VO.

 

[SundherDome]

Personally I'm not trading Savoie for anything less than a franchise-altering deal. He's a special player...I see so much Danny Briere in him and I feel like the team that gives him the right opportunities is going to reap all the benefits. Can only hope it continues to be us.

He goes to the net. He and Nadeau should be protected at all costs.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

The "VO replacement" isn't on the roster right now. Lot's a current FWs could step into that spot, but Savoie is probably the best option even if that doesn't happen until halfway through next season.

 

[SundherDome]

I would hazard to say that if Mitts can continue his current level of play, then he would be Vo's "replacement." What else to VO bring to the table beside that wicked shot of his? His 2D play won't be missed that much.

Mitts has the ability and it showed at the end of the year, beginning of the year he was saddled with garbage and still was useful. We have a good problem to where we have multiple 1C's with potentially more on the way.

 

[joshjull]

NHL Contracts by Agent Pat Brisson | Puckpedia

See the active player contracts and client list for Pat Brisson at CAA Sports LLC on PuckPedia.

puckpedia.com

View attachment 692598

Samuelsson is a CAA client and may have had one of their other agents do his ELC and Brisson did the extension.

CAA resents Eichel, which is where the Brisson vs the Sabres stuff started. They also represent Jost.

The stupid stuff started with Jack’s previous reps.

 

[Chainshot]

Personally I'm not trading Savoie for anything less than a franchise-altering deal. He's a special player...I see so much Danny Briere in him and I feel like the team that gives him the right opportunities is going to reap all the benefits. Can only hope it continues to be us.

Yeah, I'm not interested to move him until they have a better idea what he is. And that's going to take time (and if things go poorly, would also degrade his potential return value but his skills dictate giving him the opportunity first).

 

[Chainshot]

I would hazard to say that if Mitts can continue his current level of play, then he would be Vo's "replacement." What else to VO bring to the table beside that wicked shot of his? His 2D play won't be missed that much.

Shuffling Vic out to get a player who is relatively even 5-on-5 would be a net positive.

 

[joshjull]

I would hazard to say that if Mitts can continue his current level of play, then he would be Vo's "replacement." What else to VO bring to the table beside that wicked shot of his? His 2D play won't be missed that much.

I was thinking more along the lines of replacing him in the lineup. Mitts already being in it negates that in my thinking. Greenway was in the lineup but is new enough to be a “replacement“ going forward In my mind.

 

[TehDoak]

So, considering the forward group, my current depth chart looks like this:

Skinner-Thompson-Tuch
Mittelstadt-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-XXXX-Peterka
YYYYY-Krebs-ZZZZZ

I've been under the assumption we would use Krebs in the 3C spot and use the 4C spot to find a utility center ala Nosek, Blueger, or Eller. Someone who can help the PK, take defensive matchups, etc.

However, in looking at team construction, perhaps the better solution here would be to find a veteran C to fill this role with the idea as a mentor for Krebs/Cozens.

I know they've talked about Boone Jenner a bunch on the instigators, I'm not sure Columbus is keen on moving him, but he'd be a good fit.

I mean, if RoR can re-kindle his love of the game here, that would be a fit via UFA.

In the highly unlikely scenario Jordan Staal leaves Carolina, THAT would be a good fit.

Haula would be good fit.

We have to cap space to be aggressive on the short term here.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

So, considering the forward group, my current depth chart looks like this:

Skinner-Thompson-Tuch
Mittelstadt-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-XXXX-Peterka
YYYYY-Krebs-ZZZZZ

I've been under the assumption we would use Krebs in the 3C spot and use the 4C spot to find a utility center ala Nosek, Blueger, or Eller. Someone who can help the PK, take defensive matchups, etc.

However, in looking at team construction, perhaps the better solution here would be to find a veteran C to fill this role with the idea as a mentor for Krebs/Cozens.

I know they've talked about Boone Jenner a bunch on the instigators, I'm not sure Columbus is keen on moving him, but he'd be a good fit.

I mean, if RoR can re-kindle his love of the game here, that would be a fit via UFA.

In the highly unlikely scenario Jordan Staal leaves Carolina, THAT would be a good fit.

Haula would be good fit.

We have to cap space to be aggressive on the short term here.

Sundqvist from Minny and Bjugstad in Edm are also fairly cheap 4C UFA options if they go that route.

 

[Mattilaus]

So, considering the forward group, my current depth chart looks like this:

Skinner-Thompson-Tuch
Mittelstadt-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-XXXX-Peterka
YYYYY-Krebs-ZZZZZ

I've been under the assumption we would use Krebs in the 3C spot and use the 4C spot to find a utility center ala Nosek, Blueger, or Eller. Someone who can help the PK, take defensive matchups, etc.

However, in looking at team construction, perhaps the better solution here would be to find a veteran C to fill this role with the idea as a mentor for Krebs/Cozens.

I know they've talked about Boone Jenner a bunch on the instigators, I'm not sure Columbus is keen on moving him, but he'd be a good fit.

I mean, if RoR can re-kindle his love of the game here, that would be a fit via UFA.

In the highly unlikely scenario Jordan Staal leaves Carolina, THAT would be a good fit.

Haula would be good fit.

We have to cap space to be aggressive on the short term here.

Jenner would be great, but agreed, columbus aren't likely to move him. He has played his entire career there and is the captain. Maybe I just have PTSD, but I don't want a staal anywhere near this team. I am on board with Haula.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Haula would be good fit.

We have to cap space to be aggressive on the short term here.

I was trying to think of some realistic roster choices myself for guys who could be willing to sign in Buffalo. Haula was one I was looking at as an option.

I was thinking something along the lines of

Skinner-Tage-Tuch
Peterka-Cozens-Quinn
Mittelstadt-Haula-Savoie
Gus-Krebs-Greenway
Rousek

Savoie is if he makes the team in camp, Haula and Mitts could probably provide him with enough of a safety valve he can make his rookie mistakes and they won't get completely caved. If Savoie doesn't make the team in camp then Rousek, Greenway or whomever can be shifted around along with Okposo if he's back.

Something else I was thinking was involving Vegas. I wonder if a deal based around Olofsson (50% retained) for Martinez could work. Vegas will need to shed some cap, and they have some younger Dmen ready for more minutes. They also don't really have anyone with a solid 1 timer on their PP, and are good defensively but could use another finisher. Would save them some cap dollars without committing to a player long term.

 

[TageGod]

Here is how I am leaning:

Skinner-Tage-Tuch
Peterka-Cozens-Quinn (when this line was rolling it was incredible)
Greenway-Mitts-Savoie
XXX-Krebs-XXX

With Mitts performance maybe it goes Mitts 3C Krebs 4C which could slide Greenway up to third line. That leaves two winger roles for Jost/Okposo/Girgs/Rousek or outside player. I am not adding a roster forward this year beyond 4th line.

Savoie goes in as default, he is not going back another year. He had a strong camp last year I anticipate he sticks.

Cobra-Dahlin
Power-XXX
Stillman-Boosh
Joker

I will use Rosen, VO, Joker, 2023 2nd and 2024 1st as assets for top 4D. Not all of them ofc.

Levi
XXX/Comrie/UPL

Can't decide here, can UPL go back to roch without being waved? If so send him down and sign another G to split with Levi.

Moves required: Top 4 D, 1B Goalie.

 

[joshjull]

You don’t have to work that hard. 33 Sabres games were played by goalies that weren’t league leftover Comrie and UP(isn’t even good in the AH)L

behind the same players with the same system with the same excuses.

with much, much better results for the counting stat crew

There were also 17 starts by rookie goalie UPL in December and January that propelled us into a playoff spot post 8gm losing streak. Where he went 12-4-1 with a .907sv% and forced a 3 headed goalie situation because he was playing well.

Then he struggled badly post 10 day All star break. As did a good chunk of the team if you recall. Rookie goalie struggling for a stretch is not too shocking. But on balance it was a good development year for UPL.

UPL played well and poorly in the same system with the same players. Both need work but there was enough there form UPL to hope he can build on it.

 

[Dingo44]

There were also 17 starts by rookie goalie UPL in December and January that propelled us into a playoff spot post 8gm losing streak. Where he went 12-4-1 with a .907sv% and forced a 3 headed goalie situation because he was playing well.

Then he struggled badly post 10 day All star break. As did a good chunk of the team if you recall. Rookie goalie struggling for a stretch is not too shocking. But on balance it was a good development year for UPL.

UPL played well and poorly in the same system with the same players. Both need work but there was enough there form UPL to hope he can build on it.

People have very short memories.

 

[Chainshot]

There were also 17 starts by rookie goalie UPL in December and January that propelled us into a playoff spot post 8gm losing streak. Where he went 12-4-1 with a .907sv% and forced a 3 headed goalie situation because he was playing well.

Then he struggled badly post 10 day All star break. As did a good chunk of the team if you recall. Rookie goalie struggling for a stretch is not too shocking. But on balance it was a good development year for UPL.

UPL played well and poorly in the same system with the same players. Both need work but there was enough there form UPL to hope he can build on it.

Rookies of the month for the NHL this year -

October
Shane Pinto

November
Logan Thompson

December
Pyotr Kochetkov

January
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

February
Mads Søgaard

March
Stuart Skinner