I only saw the first period,had to attend a wake. But of course this would happen today. Doesn't change anything.
Player Discussion Ryan Spooner Part V
- Thread starter bruinsfan1970
- Start date
- Status
I only saw the first period,had to attend a wake. But of course this would happen today. Doesn't change anything.
Weel that was not my point... i thought people were diminishing the importance of Faceoff to promote the good play of Spooner.... which in my perspective is wrong.
That said Spooner is actually playing his best hockey of the year
Then it's a flukey season,when the numbers say that 12 out of 5000 faceoffs result in a goal and now we have one team scoring 16 off of 4000.
I continue to imply that everytime someone complained about Spooner,they would ***** about his faceoff percentage,which I think is starting to be revealed as a ludicrous stat,that becomes more ludicrous when it's applied to a whole team. I would say it's legitimate to complain about his very uneven compete level and his poor efforts in all puck battles. I knew when I brought this up,that there would be a lot of pushback against a stat that has historically been considered invaluable without any statistical backup..
BruinDust
Registered User
- Aug 2, 2005
- 25,319
- 24,234
Where are you getting these numbers from?
And why does the goal have to be scored within a certain amount of seconds to be valid?
Right now 2 of the best teams in the league are 19th and 29th in FOW%,3 of the worst teams in the league are top 5
BruinDust
Registered User
- Aug 2, 2005
- 25,319
- 24,234
So?
You do realize this statement proves absolutely nothing.
Face-offs is just one facet of the game, but doesn't mean it winning them doesn't matter or is inconsequential.
While the discussion has become an argument about the importance of face-offs, I wanted to compliment this post, because I think it is right on the money. I've been critical of Spooner's game because he was so inconsistent in effort. He is what he is, and if he brings it nightly like has done with Cassidy, then I'm happy to have him as a Bruin and, if he continues the strong play (and maybe he does develop a better two-way game as he matures) then I am happy to re-sign him for 3-4 years.
wintersej
Registered User
NHL games have around 1 faceoff per minute spread fairly evenly across the three zones.
ON AVERAGE it has been shown that a team being good at faceoffs has little correlation with possession throughout the game. This should make sense given that most of the game is played not having just had a faceoff. And, even after you win a faceoff, you aren't guaranteed to have possession for very long. How many faceoff wins are clean? How many are won but then see a forechecker right on the d-man forcing a clear off the boards?
MOST faceoffs are just the start to a series of events that lead to possession and then to goals. Obviously, you are better off starting with the advantage in the subsequent series of events, but given the ping pong nature of possession in the NHL and all the other puck battles that will quickly take place post a faceoff, it doesn't take very long for the effects of winning the faceoff to no longer exist.
So that's the argument as to why faceoffs don't matter. And even the folks that say they don't matter, don't actually say they don't matter, just that they are overrated.
HOWEVER...just because not every one of the 60 faceoffs that happen matters a whole lot DOES NOT MEAN THAT FACEOFFS DON'T MATTER A WHOLE LOT. A clean win with secure possession in either the offensive or defensive zone can obviously set you up for success. A clean win on the PP or PK is obviously important. And if a team, like say a team with Bergeron on it, can win a lot of clean draws, they can build set plays in a fluid game that lacks the chance for set plays. And we have seen the Bruins do that under Julien and Cassidy. Conversely, if every other team's center becomes Bergeron when facing off against Spooner, that matters, too.
ON AVERAGE it has been shown that a team being good at faceoffs has little correlation with possession throughout the game. This should make sense given that most of the game is played not having just had a faceoff. And, even after you win a faceoff, you aren't guaranteed to have possession for very long. How many faceoff wins are clean? How many are won but then see a forechecker right on the d-man forcing a clear off the boards?
MOST faceoffs are just the start to a series of events that lead to possession and then to goals. Obviously, you are better off starting with the advantage in the subsequent series of events, but given the ping pong nature of possession in the NHL and all the other puck battles that will quickly take place post a faceoff, it doesn't take very long for the effects of winning the faceoff to no longer exist.
So that's the argument as to why faceoffs don't matter. And even the folks that say they don't matter, don't actually say they don't matter, just that they are overrated.
HOWEVER...just because not every one of the 60 faceoffs that happen matters a whole lot DOES NOT MEAN THAT FACEOFFS DON'T MATTER A WHOLE LOT. A clean win with secure possession in either the offensive or defensive zone can obviously set you up for success. A clean win on the PP or PK is obviously important. And if a team, like say a team with Bergeron on it, can win a lot of clean draws, they can build set plays in a fluid game that lacks the chance for set plays. And we have seen the Bruins do that under Julien and Cassidy. Conversely, if every other team's center becomes Bergeron when facing off against Spooner, that matters, too.
Did not refer to Spooner even if this a Spooner thread. But i simply disagree. Faceoff is important in a game especially tight one where space is rare. Especially o and d faceoff. As for neutral faceoff i agree they are not as relevant. Stats do not always say things regarding impact moment in a game. Today was an example. 2011 sc game seven another. And we could go on and on....
I see your point, base on stats. I simply don t see it the same way.
Bruins won sc with no pp production.... does that mean pp are not important and do not positively or negatively impact a game..... i don't see your point with this post. Hockey is composed of multiple facets which faceoff is part... and is in my pov important. I know you can suck at it if you are dominant everywhere else and still win games... but you would be better st it being atleast average and more.
Jdavidev
Registered User
His compete below the goal line has been great lately. He's paying the price to make plays down there. He seems to be faster all around. Confidence can do greats things for players.
Bruins got a terrific PK to neutralize the effects of a poor PP,but the point is definite that it takes all kinds of things to win. One study reviewed 211000 faceoffs and found that a team that was closer to 60% over a season might benefit 2 wins over that season. So 60 faceoffs today and people saying 4 goals as a direct result,flies in the face of a study of 211000,so I'd call it more likely a fluke.
BruinDust
Registered User
- Aug 2, 2005
- 25,319
- 24,234
Flannelman
Quiet, Gnashgab.
- Dec 3, 2006
- 13,880
- 3,148
I'd be curious to read such a study. Could you please furnish the link, issn or isbn depending on its root access? Regards,
Ten Thousand Hours
Registered User
BruinDust
Registered User
- Aug 2, 2005
- 25,319
- 24,234
The fact that the study tosses out any goals scored after 20 seconds of play makes this study completely irrelevant to me.
So say a team wins a face-off, takes possession, continues to maintain possession, and 30 seconds after winning the face-off scores a goal without giving up possession, because the goal was scored in more than 20 seconds from the face-off, makes the fact the scoring team won the faceoff of no consequence to the goal that was scored?
Sorry but this 3 page study is by no means an authority on the value of winning face-offs.
Ten Thousand Hours
Registered User
How many goals do you think a team scores after winning the draw and then controlling possession in the offensive zone for over 20 seconds? That's pretty freaking rare. If a team adds 12 goals a year within the 20 seconds, it's still going to be a small increase if you extend the 20 seconds out.
It's not my study. I'm not trying to defend it. I don't really care. Because even if you DO think it's flawed, I don't see how you can say faceoffs are a super important detractor to Spooner's game. There are 3 other centers you can put out there for non-neutral zone faceoffs. His weakness there isn't nearly as important as his speed, skill and what he adds to the PP.
Flannelman
Quiet, Gnashgab.
- Dec 3, 2006
- 13,880
- 3,148
Thanks for posting.
I need to marinate on it a bit. The data shows that individuals, and teams, that have solid faceofff guys can have an impact, they even said Smithsons FO percentage should have earned him a bigger paycheck, so I think the statisticians but value in it. Makes me wonder if certain teams build more "set plays " off the dot with certain players (note how frequently Patrice conferences w line mates).
I'd be curious of discrete results on home/away as if there is line matching that could be telling. I'm getting too far off topic but interesting stuff.
BruinDust
Registered User
- Aug 2, 2005
- 25,319
- 24,234
I wasn't speaking strictly about offensive zone face-off wins.
Give me a study that shows all goals scored after winning a face-off on any part of the ice without giving up possession of the puck. I don't buy this stuff from the study that anything after 20 seconds is noise (noise being a statistical term) because another sports study said so.
But I had forgotten this is a Spooner thread.
I would like him to be better on face-offs, it's not the be-all-end-all for a particular player. They have 3 strong face-off centers, there is room for a weaker one.
I have a far greater issue with Spooner's lack of defensive awareness in his own end than I do his lack of face-off prowess.
bruinmann77
Registered User
22Brad Park
Registered User
I think it would be a better criticism of Spooner to say he is poor at battling for the puck. The faceoff criticism is way too overblown in it's benefit/consequence and limited to 9 spots. I like Spooner and my biggest criticism is his effort level,which is up and down. We've seen him skate hard and win some battles,but mostly we've seen him skate a notch below and be perfectly happy with giving 75%. Offensively,he's got the ability.
Blowfish
Count down ...
GloryDaze4877
Barely Irrelevant
As a general rule of thumb, I'm not sure that plus/minus has any more significance as a stat than FO winning percentage? Taken out of context, both could be misleading.
- Status
