Prospect Info: Ryan Johnson, D, 2019 #31 overall: Signed, Rochester (AHL), Recalled 12/5/24

[CaliSabresfan24]

Fixed it for you.


The biggest problem with the second round pick narrative is that so many people don't have a proper understanding of what the last pick in the second round is. This isn't the NFL where that pick is likely a starter within a year. That pick has maybe a 33% chance of being a real NHL player. To trade a ready-made capable prospect for nothing more than a dart throw would be ludicrous.

Unless (as someone mentioned) that 2nd rd pick could be used in a trade that could already be in place to get you a better d man... If not you sign Johnson

 

[Husko]

I've never lived in the WNY area (grew up in the Southern Tier/CNY), so I rarely listen to WGR. So, my observation of P-Ham is almost entirely based on his online presence. He's almost like a glorified intern. His reports are essentially lineup and injury updates, his questions in pressers rarely elicit any good responses from the players, and his observations in opinion pieces/twitter are from a very elementary and un-nuanced understanding of the game.

He's like an online blogger that specializes in click bait only he has the illusion of access and reliability. It's all a lie.

 

[Ace]

Unless (as someone mentioned) that 2nd rd pick could be used in a trade that could already be in place to get you a better d man... If not you sign Johnson

I doubt very seriously that a big time trade is hanging in the balance of whether or not the Sabres acquire the last pick in the second round of a draft that isn’t even this year,

 

[Chainshot]

Fixed it for you.


The biggest problem with the second round pick narrative is that so many people don't have a proper understanding of what the last pick in the second round is. This isn't the NFL where that pick is likely a starter within a year. That pick has maybe a 33% chance of being a real NHL player. To trade a ready-made capable prospect for nothing more than a dart throw would be ludicrous.

Being at the end of the 2nd, it's probably even lower than 33%. The third round is more like 27% to be a 99 or more NHL game contributor. That's getting pretty thin.

 

[Husko]

Being at the end of the 2nd, it's probably even lower than 33%. The third round is more like 27% to be a 99 or more NHL game contributor. That's getting pretty thin.

Thanks for the correction, I hadn’t seen the chart in a few years. And of course the 99 game threshold is super generous, too. If someone plays only 100 games they’re probably a 7th defenseman / AHL tweener. Natha Paetsch played about 150 NHL games. Would anyone trade a developed prospect and former first round pick for a 1/4 chance of Nathan Paetsch?

 

[brian_griffin]

Sure. I can give an example. It should have been evident to KA and DG that Bryson and Olofsson were not core players, and have a net negative effect on winning. They should have traded either directly or in a package, both of those players anytime between last offseason and this trade deadline.

However, they kept playing them, to the detriment of the team, trying to get more out of them either in trade or on the ice. They got neither, and by the trade deadline, spent assets on Greenway and Stillman that pushed them both off the ice. So we held onto them until they had no value, and now, by not playing them when it counts, you are ensuring they have minimum value this offseason. Getting ahead of this cycle and trading players that are not long term core, and don't really fit your needs, is good asset management. Whatever assets that could have been gotten for them could have been applied to acquiring a player that better matched team needs. Thats good asset management.

What they did was the opposite. Bad asset management.

IMO, Your argument re: asset management is valid generically, but makes two implicit assumptions specifically re: #71, #78.

First bolded. Olofsson and Bryson (and Hino, FWIW) are well-enough known around the NHL that whether they play or don't play down the stretch, their value is set with the rest of the NHL's GMs.

Second bolded: You implicitly assume that players which better matched the Sabres needs were available at the deadline, AND that the Sabres could outbid other teams (trade partner would accept BUF's offer), and that #71, #78 were valued in such transactions by they other trading team. If ANY of those assumptions weren't true, no deal.

My wife and I discussed this after the title game, where we were not impressed by what we saw. I wonder if the Sabres want him to sign a AHL tryout and play with the Amerks to see what he can do in a pro environment, and then sign the ECL after the playoffs if he shows he has a pro game. If Johnson wants to be here and believes in himself then he does it. If not, then he goes to UFA and the Sabres get the pick.

Johnson understandably would want to sign the ECL and burn a year this week. Stalemate.

That's an astute insight. Hadn't thought of that. The corrollary - that BUF wants him to sign an AHL PTO, and on the <1% chance BUF makes the playoffs they'd be willing to bring him up as a depth injury fill-in on a then-signedd ELC if somehow they miraculously knock off the Bruins in the 1st round - that makes sense. It's a completely different theory from Levi, who didn't "have to" leave Northeastern.

Maybe not the right thread for this, but Joker is still wearing the tinted visor that he started using when he came back from his concussion. I am curious whether he still has mild symptoms like light sensitivity, or say, processing things ever-so-slightly slower than pre-concussion.

Great observation. Maybe has credence.

I've never lived in the WNY area (grew up in the Southern Tier/CNY), so I rarely listen to WGR. So, my observation of P-Ham is almost entirely based on his online presence. He's almost like a glorified intern. His reports are essentially lineup and injury updates, his questions in pressers rarely elicit any good responses from the players, and his observations in opinion pieces/twitter are from a very elementary and un-nuanced understanding of the game.

Pretty sure Hamilton is also about ~60 years old, so it's not like he doesn't have experience.

 

[Chainshot]

PHam's claim to fame was being an early cut from tryouts for the Miracle on Ice team.

 

[truthbluth]

P

PHam's claim to fame was being an early cut from tryouts for the Miracle on Ice team.

how’s that possible? Dude has no stats in hockeydb.

 

[brian_griffin]

P

how’s that possible? Dude has no stats in hockeydb.

I have several friends / classmates / siblings of friends and classmates of similar age who played major junior and collegiate and in Europe in the late 1970s through early 1990s whose stats in hockeydb are hit / miss. i.e., sometimes included, sometimes "missing" i.e., no entry for them at all, sometimes partial - i.e., includes some but not all of their "careers".

 

[Irie]

P

how’s that possible? Dude has no stats in hockeydb.

Maybe not being invited to try-out is the same as being an early-cut in his estimation

 

[Chainshot]

P

how’s that possible? Dude has no stats in hockeydb.

Iowa State.

 

[TehDoak]

PHam's claim to fame was being an early cut from tryouts for the Miracle on Ice team.

Probably realized they could just have the players fill the water bottles themselves.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Soooo nothing new....

 

[TehDoak]

I mean....this should just be a formality at this point

This paragraph from Lance's article in the Buffalo news is probably the sticking point:

If Johnson signs, he will also take on power-play and penalty-killing roles in Rochester next season, though the former isn't a role he'd ever have in Buffalo because coach Don Granato has Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power.

Really sounds like the Sabres are saying they want him in the AHL next year. Curious if that is why he hasn't signed yet.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

PHam's claim to fame was being an early cut from tryouts for the Miracle on Ice team.

I remember him telling that story on air... As much as I don't like him, that is a pretty cool flex.

 

[oldgoalie]

we have someone on the boards here that relayed the Levi signing... any word from that poster on this situation?

 

[Jacob582]

I'm sure it's down to the details of wanting bonus money and NHL games played this season.

 

[Djp]

Fixed it for you.


The biggest problem with the second round pick narrative is that so many people don't have a proper understanding of what the last pick in the second round is. This isn't the NFL where that pick is likely a starter within a year. That pick has maybe a 33% chance of being a real NHL player. To trade a ready-made capable prospect for nothing more than a dart throw would be ludicrous.

much less than 33 % chance in terms of having a career beyond 200 games. A third might make some nhl games.

 

[Chainshot]

I mean....this should just be a formality at this point

This paragraph from Lance's article in the Buffalo news is probably the sticking point:



Really sounds like the Sabres are saying they want him in the AHL next year. Curious if that is why he hasn't signed yet.

Lance has tried to spin up the PP thing for seemingly forever. Johnson didn't sniff the PP in Minnesota either and that didn't push him into the transfer portal. I don't know why he keeps hanging onto that one.

More telling are the comments about how Buffalo moved on from most of the depth defensemen that Botterill tried drafting. There is an implication there, though one could also have looked at most of those late rounders on draft day and asked WTF is the Big Headed one doing (and some of us did so) because low-skill junior defensemen so rarely work out. Johnson is not a late rounder which makes the implication less solid IMO, but it's also in that article.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Chad's a 9/10 confident on Johnson...

 

[Zman5778]

Really sounds like the Sabres are saying they want him in the AHL next year. Curious if that is why he hasn't signed yet.

Doesn't really have any bearing on getting him in a game this year....which is likely what Johnson want.

Give him a game this year and offer a legit 3 way battle between him, Stillman and Bryson for the 3rd pair LHD role. But this time, the rookie gets sent down if it's close.

 

[Beerz]

I mean dude should of had all the possible scenarios for months ahead of time.

The fact he has to take more time is a little absurd.

 

[old kummelweck]

Any team that would put him right on an NHL roster next season is a team he probably does not want to sign with for other reasons.

 

[toddkaz]

What needs negotiating now that hasn't been said in the past? Seems a little superfluous

 

[BuffaloGooner]

It’s probably a waiting game because at this point we’re like dude we’re kinda in a race here, sorry we aren’t burning the year and getting you games

Once we’re mathematically out that changes. Possibly tonight. Maybe he ends up taking the ATO anyway. It’ll get done.