Prospect Info: Ryan Johnson, D, 2019 #31 overall: Signed, Rochester (AHL), Recalled 12/5/24

[RhinoFan]

The return wouldn't need to just be a 1st. The 2nd round pick the Sabres get as compensation would be the 62nd or 64th overall (not sure how that gets calculated with the Kraken existing now). A team could realistically offer up a 2nd that could be earlier in the round and Buffalo would come out ahead.

Obviously that's a worst case as I personally think he'll get signed.

True, but do you think a 2nd would even be offered? That'd be a pretty hefty price for his rights given his proximity to UFA, he's no Fox.

 

[haseoke39]

How many college kids sign with the club that drafted them after completing their senior year? Has to be rare. No real reason to do it unless, as Doak says^^, that team happens to be the best fit out of all 32.

 

[Jim Bob]

How many college kids sign with the club that drafted them after completing their senior year? Has to be rare. No real reason to do it unless, as Doak says^^, that team happens to be the best fit out of all 32.

Multiple Sabres prospects have done it, including Linus Weissbach most recently. Casey Fitzgerald and Sean Malone also played all four years in college before signing with the Sabres.

 

[dire wolf]

How many college kids sign with the club that drafted them after completing their senior year? Has to be rare. No real reason to do it unless, as Doak says^^, that team happens to be the best fit out of all 32.

Isn't the biggest reason that Buffalo is the only team that can burn a year off his ELC? That's potentially worth a lot of money to a player.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

True, but do you think a 2nd would even be offered? That'd be a pretty hefty price for his rights given his proximity to UFA, he's no Fox.

It's hard to say with Johnson. He's not a flashy prospect but he's very solid all around. Arizona paid a 2nd for McBain who while having an excellent season at Harvard was mostly seen as being a 3rd line center type of player.

I'm guessing it would be similar to that where Johnson would have to agree to sign with the acquiring team for it to happen, but just pointing out it's not unheard of. It's all spitballing at this point anyway.

Buffalo paid a 3rd for a few days to negotiate with Vesey. Maybe a team would pay a 2nd to negotiate with Johnson knowing at worst they get a 2nd in return if it fails.

 

[Matt Ress]

Isn't the biggest reason that Buffalo is the only team that can burn a year off his ELC? That's potentially worth a lot of money to a player.

Yeah we can get him in some games at the end of the year (or really at any point in the season) and get his ELC started in the 22/23 season as apposed to going to UFA and starting it next season with another club.

 

[EichHart]

This sucks. what chance would you guys give him to sign? 10-15%?

 

[RhinoFan]

It's hard to say with Johnson. He's not a flashy prospect but he's very solid all around. Arizona paid a 2nd for McBain who while having an excellent season at Harvard was mostly seen as being a 3rd line center type of player.

I'm guessing it would be similar to that where Johnson would have to agree to sign with the acquiring team for it to happen, but just pointing out it's not unheard of. It's all spitballing at this point anyway.

Buffalo paid a 3rd for a few days to negotiate with Vesey. Maybe a team would pay a 2nd to negotiate with Johnson knowing at worst they get a 2nd in return if it fails.

That's fair, shouldn't count it out. One thing though, correct me if I'm wrong, but if we trade his rights, the acquiring team wouldn't get the 2nd rounder if he doesn't sign. That would only be for us since we were the drafting team. At least that's how I saw it explained.

 

[sabremike]

One thing I can't understand is why the compensatory pick would be at the end of the SECOND round? Wouldn't common sense say that it should be at the end of the first? I swear this entire league is run by people dumber than a goldfish.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

One thing I can't understand is why the compensatory pick would be at the end of the SECOND round? Wouldn't common sense say that it should be at the end of the first? I swear this entire league is run by people dumber than a goldfish.

Comp pick for unsigned 1st round picks is the same draft position but in the 2nd round. Since Johnson was drafted with the 31st pick of the first round, the comp pick would be the 31st pick of the second round. If hypothetically he was drafted 1st overall, then the comp pick would have been the 1st pick of the 2nd round (33 overall).

 

[sabremike]

Comp pick for unsigned 1st round picks is the same draft position but in the 2nd round. Since Johnson was drafted with the 31st pick of the first round, the comp pick would be the 31st pick of the second round. If hypothetically he was drafted 1st overall, then the comp pick would have been the 1st pick of the 2nd round (33 overall).

I know that's how they do it, it's just really stupid and senseless which is par for the course for the NHL. It should be added to the end of the first round like MLB

 

[Snippit]

Meh I don’t see him signing here. Why would he at this point? The organization is not exactly highly thought of and there’s a ton of LHD ahead of him. If he’s going to UFA he will have options

He’s a great prospect and I really believe a future top 4 guy. But my hopes are low.

 

[Satanphonehome]

Johnson said he intends to sign here and I expect that to happen right after Minnesota’s done.

He’s given us no reason to think he won’t play games for the Sabres this season If they continue to treat him and the rest of their prospects with the professionalism and respect that they have.

That so many of you are convinced otherwise based on nothing other than the fact he could says more about you than anything else.

Good player. Having him and Lyubushkin pushing Jokiharju battling for the 4/5/6 spots should complete next year’s corps nicely

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Honestly, I feel like Johnson has been shown that we're working on development and indebted to building things up properly. If he decides to walk, that's his prerogative, but I feel more comfortable saying this is a 50/50 bet. Whereas with Portillo, he's going to walk.

 

[paulmm3]

It's in both Johnson and Portillo's interest to pretend to Buffalo like they have interest and string them along until they maybe don't have interest. I don't expect either one to sign, I'm happy we drafted no NCAAers this year, but I hope Buffalo rolls out the red carpet and gives signing Johnson and Portillo their best shot

 

[Jim Bob]

It's in both Johnson and Portillo's interest to pretend to Buffalo like they have interest and string them along until they maybe don't have interest. I don't expect either one to sign, I'm happy we drafted no NCAAers this year, but I hope Buffalo rolls out the red carpet and gives signing Johnson and Portillo their best shot

If they are committed to going to UFA there isn’t anything in it for them to not be honest.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

It's in both Johnson and Portillo's interest to pretend to Buffalo like they have interest and string them along until they maybe don't have interest. I don't expect either one to sign, I'm happy we drafted no NCAAers this year, but I hope Buffalo rolls out the red carpet and gives signing Johnson and Portillo their best shot

Jake Richard will be going NCAA after another year in USHL. And players in his situation (later round picks) should theoretically be more prone to going to FA, since they'll likely need more time in college anyways.

But cutting off an entire developmental route is a good way to miss out on talent. Just like intentionally avoiding Russians, intentionally avoiding NCAA players is cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Meh I don’t see him signing here. Why would he at this point? The organization is not exactly highly thought of and there’s a ton of LHD ahead of him. If he’s going to UFA he will have options

He’s a great prospect and I really believe a future top 4 guy. But my hopes are low.

I think the perception has started to shift a little bit. Comrie mentioned in his interview after signing with Buffalo that a lot of other players he talked to were supportive and said there seems to be a lot of good things going on now with the Sabres. Hopefully that wasn't just lip service, and players are starting to see there is actual change happening.

 

[Chainshot]

How many college kids sign with the club that drafted them after completing their senior year? Has to be rare. No real reason to do it unless, as Doak says^^, that team happens to be the best fit out of all 32.

Most actually.

 

[Ehran]

If they are committed to going to UFA there isn’t anything in it for them to not be honest.

Eh, considering the way that many fandoms jump all over players these days, the players are better off keeping quiet rather than getting branded "selfish" or even worse, when all they're doing is exercising their rights.

If I were in either's situation, and had no plans to sign with Buffalo, I'd be saying pretty much the exact same thing and just keep everyone quiet.

 

[Jim Bob]

Eh, considering the way that many fandoms jump all over players these days, the players are better off keeping quiet rather than getting branded "selfish" or even worse, when all they're doing is exercising their rights.

If I were in either's situation, and had no plans to sign with Buffalo, I'd be saying pretty much the exact same thing and just keep everyone quiet.

There is a difference between not saying anything publicly and being open and honest with the team.

The right way to handle it is to be honest with the team and non-committal if asked by media outlets.

 

[Archie Lee]

I don't have any great concern if Johnson or Portillo opt to go elsewhere. It would be disappointing, no question, but the player has rights as does the team. NHL teams draft lots of players who then become their property for years only to decide not to sign them (see the Sabres recent decision to not sign any of the three late rd D-men from the 2018 draft, whose rights the Sabres held for 4 years). What's good for the gander is good for the goose, as they say.

In Johnson's case, lots has been made of the potential influence of his father, who is a development coach with the kings. I suspect that his father's main influence is not in directing him towards signing with a team other than the Sabres, but rather comes from a belief that his son's development is best served, at this time, by the college path as opposed to the minors. The additional benefit is that at the end of this year if the Sabres don't have an NHL spot for him, he can go to all 31 teams and gauge if there is an opportunity to step right into the NHL in 2023. Hard to blame a kid for choosing that path if that is what he wants.

Ditto for Portillo; if he thinks he will develop well with another year in college and if he, perhaps, sees Levi as the goalie that the team is most invested in, then it is entirely fair that he exercise his right to explore other options. 3rd rd picks don't turn out for a lot of reasons; one of those reasons can be that the player decides the team isn't the best fit for him. If the Sabres can opt not to sign a drafted kid to a contract then I really don't have an issue with a kid deciding to pursue a path that is better for him. This is made easier to swallow when it seems the reasons may be more about opportunity than by any bias against the city or the organization.

At least with Johnson we will get the compensatory late 2nd rd pick if he goes elsewhere. If that's what happens and we end up with four 2nd rd picks next year, I won't be overly down about it.

 

[Husko]

Most actually.

This is true, but it's probably worth controlling for the variable of those who play out their senior year because they're still trying to earn a contract versus those that the team wants to sign early but they choose to go back. It would be hard data to collate, but if we could I bet the numbers would like quite different.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

This is true, but it's probably worth controlling for the variable of those who play out their senior year because they're still trying to earn a contract versus those that the team wants to sign early but they choose to go back. It would be hard data to collate, but if we could I bet the numbers would like quite different.

Some of that could be very subjective, which really makes it difficult to gauge.

Someone like Fitzgerald for example. He played his senior season, but had he decided to go pro after his sophomore or junior year I'm sure the Sabres still would have signed him even if they weren't necessarily pushing for him to come out early.

 

[Husko]

I don't have any great concern if Johnson or Portillo opt to go elsewhere. It would be disappointing, no question, but the player has rights as does the team. NHL teams draft lots of players who then become their property for years only to decide not to sign them (see the Sabres recent decision to not sign any of the three late rd D-men from the 2018 draft, whose rights the Sabres held for 4 years). What's good for the gander is good for the goose, as they say.

In Johnson's case, lots has been made of the potential influence of his father, who is a development coach with the kings. I suspect that his father's main influence is not in directing him towards signing with a team other than the Sabres, but rather comes from a belief that his son's development is best served, at this time, by the college path as opposed to the minors. The additional benefit is that at the end of this year if the Sabres don't have an NHL spot for him, he can go to all 31 teams and gauge if there is an opportunity to step right into the NHL in 2023. Hard to blame a kid for choosing that path if that is what he wants.

Ditto for Portillo; if he thinks he will develop well with another year in college and if he, perhaps, sees Levi as the goalie that the team is most invested in, then it is entirely fair that he exercise his right to explore other options. 3rd rd picks don't turn out for a lot of reasons; one of those reasons can be that the player decides the team isn't the best fit for him. If the Sabres can opt not to sign a drafted kid to a contract then I really don't have an issue with a kid deciding to pursue a path that is better for him. This is made easier to swallow when it seems the reasons may be more about opportunity than by any bias against the city or the organization.

At least with Johnson we will get the compensatory late 2nd rd pick if he goes elsewhere. If that's what happens and we end up with four 2nd rd picks next year, I won't be overly down about it.

I agree in that I'd hold no ill will toward the players, but I wouldn't just shrug my shoulders and say oh well. Having two fairly high picks, that actually hit, walk for nothing, in a league where picks in that range only hit like 50% or less of the time anyway, would be a pretty horrible thing to happen to a rebuilding franchise. I know that "it's not a loophole," but that doesn't make it any less crumy for this to be something that can happen to a team, especially one that isn't a very attractive destination to begin with.

There are a number of solutions one could come up with to make this happen less. But for better or worse, there doesn't seem to be much motivation to d so.