Prospect Info: Ryan Johnson, D, 2019 #31 overall: Signed, Rochester (AHL), Recalled 12/5/24

[jmelm]

I don't think the concern about being the villain is really dictating his actions.

At some point I think we have to take into account that money is a real factor here. Johnson is not a sure-fire NHL talent. While burning a year of his ELC is nice, the reality is that he is going be be earning AHL ELC wages, so something like 60 - 70k. (I will admit that I am not up to date on what AHL ELC wages are, someone please correct me if I am way off.)

If he lands on a team and gets some time as a #7 D even, he's propably looking at 800-900k. So he has to look around the league and assess where he has the best chance of that happening.

Maybe he develops into an NHL regular, and then the money and contract issues will resolve themselves. But if he doesn't, a few years making 900k sure beats 3 or 4 years in the AHL earning one-tenth that before maybe finding a gig in another league.

Does Buffalo offer a good path for him? I think that is likely his dilemma.

I was joking about the villain thing (I was just trying offer the obligatory pessimism)

But I do believe Johnson is pretty much a sure fire NHLer. Whether he's only a 3rd pairing guy or anything more than that, that is up for debate and requires time to tell.

So if it is about the money, then him signing here and burning a year off his ELC by getting a few games in this year would be very appealing to him.

But if his heart is in California (like Adam Fox's heart was in Manhattan), then he'll go to UFA or perhaps request a trade there, and we can flip him to LA or ANA for a 2023 2nd.

Whatever the case, we'll find out soon enough.

 

[Ace]

He’s torn alright. Torn between really wanting to turn pro but only being able to do it here this year. Trade him. If only to show that Adams is alive over there.

 

[jmelm]

He’s torn alright. Torn between really wanting to turn pro but only being able to do it here this year. Trade him. If only to show that Adams is alive over there.

I guess the question is if it's the case he doesn't want to sign here, how many other teams is he willing to sign with? Is he only willing to go one, like LA or ANA? Or are there a handful of teams he's willing to sign with.

If the latter is the case, we should certainly be able to get a 2023 2nd rounder for him, which will both be higher in the draft and a year earlier than getting the 60th overall pick in 2024.

But no team will trade for him without a commitment that he'll sign. So let's see what happens.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Wouldn't be hilarious that he wants sign with Blues.

I guess the question is if it's the case he doesn't want to sign here, how many other teams is he willing to sign with? Is he only willing to go one, like LA or ANA? Or are there a handful of teams he's willing to sign with.

If the latter is the case, we should certainly be able to get a 2023 2nd rounder for him, which will both be higher in the draft and a year earlier than getting the 60th overall pick in 2024.

But no team will trade for him without a commitment that he'll sign. So let's see what happens.

 

[jmelm]

Wouldn't be hilarious that he wants sign with Blues.

Sure. But not sure if you're saying that because they have ROR, or because they also have a log jam at D with Leddy + Krug + Scandella + Perunovich?

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Sure. But not sure if you're saying that because they have ROR, or because they also have a log jam at D with Leddy + Krug + Scandella + Perunovich?

Yeah, because of ROR and also have their first round pick back.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I went down a rabbit hole this morning researching Ryan Johnson.

Minnesota fans talk really highly of him. One reporter said he’s the hardest working player that he’s seen come through the program, and will stay after practice well after it ends. Fans rave about his character and I saw one person mention that they’d be shocked if he didn’t sign with the team that drafted him.

On the Social Media front, seems like a lot of Sabres guys follow him. He’s not active on Twitter but he follows the Sabres and a dev coach. His dad doesn’t really follow much Sabres related, except Susie Cool for some reason? His mom follows the Sabres & Kim Pegula on Twitter.

When looking for other connections: the current Minnesota head coach seems to be buddies with Tony Granato. His dad would’ve also briefly crossed paths with Tony with the LA Kings.

 

[Chainshot]

I went down a rabbit hole this morning researching Ryan Johnson.

Minnesota fans talk really highly of him. One reporter said he’s the hardest working player that he’s seen come through the program, and will stay after practice well after it ends. Fans rave about his character and I saw one person mention that they’d be shocked if he didn’t sign with the team that drafted him.

On the Social Media front, seems like a lot of Sabres guys follow him. He’s not active on Twitter but he follows the Sabres and a dev coach. His dad doesn’t really follow much Sabres related, except Susie Cool for some reason? His mom follows the Sabres & Kim Pegula on Twitter.

When looking for other connections: the current Minnesota head coach seems to be buddies with Tony Granato. His dad would’ve also briefly crossed paths with Tony with the LA Kings.

Which is all part of why the doom and gloom crew seems to be centered HERE and to some on Twitter. And not for nothing, but his play is excellent at UM - having enough streaming services to watch him time and again, he is an excellent defender and has sneaky good ability to jumpstart the play with his mobility and passing both. Him joining a rush late that he's sealed off at the other end of the ice happens just enough to be really intriguing, but his bread and butter will be as a mobile defender.

 

[jmelm]

Which is all part of why the doom and gloom crew seems to be centered HERE and to some on Twitter. And not for nothing, but his play is excellent at UM - having enough streaming services to watch him time and again, he is an excellent defender and has sneaky good ability to jumpstart the play with his mobility and passing both. Him joining a rush late that he's sealed off at the other end of the ice happens just enough to be really intriguing, but his bread and butter will be as a mobile defender.

Agreed, and that's why I think he can jump in right away and if not play a full season right now, at least spend a good portion of it in BUF rather than "only" earn an AHL salary. No reason he couldn't get ~20+ games if he's the first injury call up or if we just choose to give rotate him into a bunch of games periodically.

I think he's more than capable of playing 3rd pairing minutes for a non-playoff team in his rookie year.

Does he value that opportunity enough to forgo free agency? I guess we'll find out.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Ace]

 

[Dingo44]

I know this will bring out more moaning about how Johnson is gone (he's not) but the fact it took him this long to decide means it was a really difficult choice. That tells me he's more than likely signing after Minnesota's season is over.

It's not like the coaches at UM weren't working at trying to keep him for another season either.

I believe he's sincere and wants to sign with us.

 

[Jim Bob]

I know this will bring out more moaning about how Johnson is gone (he's not) but the fact it took him this long to decide means it was a really difficult choice. That tells me he's more than likely signing after Minnesota's season is over.

It's not like the coaches at UM weren't working at trying to keep him for another season either.

I believe he's sincere and wants to sign with us.

I still have the most confidence in Levi signing after the season, Johnson is a coin flip for me, and I am prepared for Portillo to walk.

It will be a great move by Adams if he can get all three inked after the 22-23 college season.

 

[TehDoak]

I know this will bring out more moaning about how Johnson is gone (he's not) but the fact it took him this long to decide means it was a really difficult choice. That tells me he's more than likely signing after Minnesota's season is over.

We have no idea if this was a hard decision for him. He's a 21 year old who turned down hundreds of thousands of dollars cash signing bonus earlier this summer. When he didn't sign after his junior year was over and take the cash, it's likely he is never going to sign here.

It's not like the coaches at UM weren't working at trying to keep him for another season either.

I believe he's sincere and wants to sign with us.

I'm sure he'll be sincere with about actually signing with his next team too.

If he says "Nope not going to sign suckers, peace out" and then has a terrible year, he likely burned a bridge. By keeping things cordial and attending team events, he keeps options available if this next year goes south.

This is the same stuff Fox did when everyone knew he was going to go UFA:

Fox, then 20, attended Carolina’s prospects development camp soon after the 2018 trade and was quizzed by media members about his intentions. “I’ve never said anything about my plans,” Fox said in an interview with The N&O during the camp. “Definitely next year I’m going back to school and will take it day by day. For me, it’s not that I’ve thought all the way down the road and had this whole thing planned out, of what I want to do.”

Read more at: https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nhl/carolina-hurricanes/article257558033.html#storylink=cpy

This is boilerplate stuff he said. If he wanted to sign with the Sabres he would have signed.

 

[Gabrielor]

Don't really like the "we'll see what the future holds" line, but I'll trust Adams knows, and will handle it accordingly.

I STILL think he signs here.

 

[zenthusiast]

It's a tough position for him to be in if he doesn't want to sign. If that's the case, he has to navigate the path of disappointing the team that believed and invested in him, which certainly wouldn't be an easy move for me in a relatively similar work position

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

We have no idea if this was a hard decision for him. He's a 21 year old who turned down hundreds of thousands of dollars cash signing bonus earlier this summer. When he didn't sign after his junior year was over and take the cash, it's likely he is never going to sign here.

You do realize not every prospects primary concern is money right?

 

[buffalowing88]

Who knows what happens with him moving forward but the only things I'm certain of are that a. he's developed very nicely at UM and will be an NHL regular somewhere or another in the near future and b. he's apparently lacking the competitive fire you'd want to see.

I think a big reason he's staying back is that he doesn't see a clear path forward on the depth chart but you'd sort of think he should believe enough in himself to make it impossible for the Sabres not to play him...

 

[Fjordy]

Well, I hope he signs a contract next spring. In any case, we will receive compensation if he wants to leave for the UFA and we already have a good young backbone of the defense to mitigate this.

 

[RhinoFan]

Don't really like the "we'll see what the future holds" line, but I'll trust Adams knows, and will handle it accordingly.

I STILL think he signs here.

Agreed. Plus, trading him doesn't make a lot of sense. We aren't getting a 1st rounder for him and we receive a 2nd if he doesn't sign as has been stated...so we're going to hold unless he's a sweetener in a larger trade.

 

[Zach716]

He has no allegiance to the Sabres (which is his right) and the regime that drafted him is gone, so that's moot. Maybe he still signs as a UFA but the Sabres advantage is probably not much more than any of the other 31 teams now. It's nice to hold out hope but that's the reality.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Agreed. Plus, trading him doesn't make a lot of sense. We aren't getting a 1st rounder for him and we receive a 2nd if he doesn't sign as has been stated...so we're going to hold unless he's a sweetener in a larger trade.

The return wouldn't need to just be a 1st. The 2nd round pick the Sabres get as compensation would be the 62nd or 64th overall (not sure how that gets calculated with the Kraken existing now). A team could realistically offer up a 2nd that could be earlier in the round and Buffalo would come out ahead.

Obviously that's a worst case as I personally think he'll get signed.

 

[Paxon]

I know this will bring out more moaning about how Johnson is gone (he's not) but the fact it took him this long to decide means it was a really difficult choice. That tells me he's more than likely signing after Minnesota's season is over.

It's not like the coaches at UM weren't working at trying to keep him for another season either.

I believe he's sincere and wants to sign with us.

I'm not sure he really took all this time to make a decision. He could well have always been "leaning" 90% towards going back to school. I don't know how anyone can say it is more than likely he will sign here after his season ends. There's a realistic chance but more than likely?

 

[Dingo44]

I'm not sure he really took all this time to make a decision. He could well have always been "leaning" 90% towards going back to school. I don't know how anyone can say it is more than likely he will sign here after his season ends. There's a realistic chance but more than likely?

It's my opinion - maybe he's already decided to not sign - but I personally believe if he wasn't leaning towards signing with the Sabres eventually then there wouldn't be a decision - he'd just say he's going back to Minnesota and play it out to become a UFA. He has to be one of the last college guys to declare he's going back for one more year. You don't take that long unless you are really struggling to decide. Again, just my opinion.

 

[TehDoak]

You do realize not every prospects primary concern is money right?

Of course I do.

But, going back to college for a 4th year incurs a large amount of risk for the prospect. I'm sure they have to carry some pretty hefty injury insurance.

If he turned down a max ELC, he turned down 277k in signing bonus guaranteed plus a minimum of 240k in salary if he played the entire time in the AHL (and a max of 2.5M if he spent the entire time in the NHL)

So, by going back he's risking a potential 500k windfall if he suffers a career ending injury.

Now, saying all that, does that mean he isn't going to sign here? No. But what I am saying is, forgoing guaranteed cash for a 4th year comes with risk. For him to walk to UFA and not at least test the market would be atypical. The only real home field advantage we have is we could sign him after the season is over and burn a year off his contract and be a year and a closer to UFA, something other teams could not without trading for his rights. However, when he could simply wait a few more months and sign anywhere with next to no risk at that point, i mean, logically, why wouldn't you simply do that and have your pick of where to live than be stuck with whatever team drafted you?

Once players decide to go to their 4th year, there's very little incentive to sign with your drafting team unless they feel its a great fit for them.