Prospect Info: Ryan Johnson, D, 2019 #31 overall: Signed, Rochester (AHL), Recalled 12/5/24

[Djp]

Last pick of the second round so essentially a 3rd round pick which is worth very little. Again: How does Botts still have a job in pro hockey in any capacity?

It’s 31 in the 2nd. The cup final teams would pick after.

 

[Jim Bob]

Is there any indication that he's going to leave?

Just like Portillo, he has not signed an ELC and appears to be headed back to college for the last season prior to him becoming a UFA.

So, in the absence of an indication that he wants to sign, there is a reasonable amount of concern that he will walk.

I would not say it is 100% that Johnson walks as a UFA. But, I also think it is overly optimistic to expect him to sign with Buffalo, as well.

Fans are not privy to the conversations between Johnson, his family advisor, and the Sabres. So, we are left to guess as to what will happen.

And the Cal Petersen walking thing does make some people overreact. But, the Sabres have signed the vast majority of college draftees over the past decade or so:

2021 1st Round - Owen Power - SIGNED
2020 5th Round - Matteo Costantini - Still at North Dakota
2019 1st Round - Ryan Johnson - Still at Minnesota
2019 3rd Round - Erik Portillo - Still at Michigan
2019 4th Round - Aaron Huglen - Still at Minnesota
2018 2nd Round - Mattia Samuelsson - SIGNED
2017 1st Round - Casey Mittelstadt - SIGNED
2017 4th Round - Jacob Bryson - SIGNED
2017 1st Round - Linus Weissbach - SIGNED
2016 3rd Round - Casey Fitzgerald - SIGNED
2016 4th Round - Brett Murray - SIGNED
2015 1st Round - Jack Eichel - SIGNED
2015 4th Round - Will Borgen - SIGNED
2015 7th Round - Ivan Chukarov - Unsigned
2014 5th Round - Max Willman - Unsigned
2014 6th Round - Christopher Brown - Unsigned
2013 2nd Round - JT Compher - Traded and signed by Colorado
2013 2nd Round - Connor Hurley - Unsigned
2013 5th Round - Cal Petersen - Unsigned
2013 5th Round - Anthony Florentino - SIGNED
2013 6th Round - Sean Malone - SIGNED
2012 2nd Round - Jake McCabe - SIGNED
2012 7th Round - Judd Peterson - SIGNED

Petersen and Willman are the only players that the Sabres did not sign that have played in NHL games as of today.

 

[RefsIdeas]

99.9999999999999999999999999999%

Maybe a little higher?

Wow. I thought optimistic would be like 60/40. I respect your opinion on a lot of topics but I’ll have to disagree in this particular one.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Just like Portillo, he has not signed an ELC and appears to be headed back to college for the last season prior to him becoming a UFA.

So, in the absence of an indication that he wants to sign, there is a reasonable amount of concern that he will walk.

I would not say it is 100% that Johnson walks as a UFA. But, I also think it is overly optimistic to expect him to sign with Buffalo, as well.

Fans are not privy to the conversations between Johnson, his family advisor, and the Sabres. So, we are left to guess as to what will happen.

And the Cal Petersen walking thing does make some people overreact. But, the Sabres have signed the vast majority of college draftees over the past decade or so:

2021 1st Round - Owen Power - SIGNED
2020 5th Round - Matteo Costantini - Still at North Dakota
2019 1st Round - Ryan Johnson - Still at Minnesota
2019 3rd Round - Erik Portillo - Still at Michigan
2019 4th Round - Aaron Huglen - Still at Minnesota
2018 2nd Round - Mattia Samuelsson - SIGNED
2017 1st Round - Casey Mittelstadt - SIGNED
2017 4th Round - Jacob Bryson - SIGNED
2017 1st Round - Linus Weissbach - SIGNED
2016 3rd Round - Casey Fitzgerald - SIGNED
2016 4th Round - Brett Murray - SIGNED
2015 1st Round - Jack Eichel - SIGNED
2015 4th Round - Will Borgen - SIGNED
2015 7th Round - Ivan Chukarov - Unsigned
2014 5th Round - Max Willman - Unsigned
2014 6th Round - Christopher Brown - Unsigned
2013 2nd Round - JT Compher - Traded and signed by Colorado
2013 2nd Round - Connor Hurley - Unsigned
2013 5th Round - Cal Petersen - Unsigned
2013 5th Round - Anthony Florentino - SIGNED
2013 6th Round - Sean Malone - SIGNED
2012 2nd Round - Jake McCabe - SIGNED
2012 7th Round - Judd Peterson - SIGNED

Petersen and Willman are the only players that the Sabres did not sign that have played in NHL games as of today.

First rounders always sign. It's the players taken in later round where the worry starts to creep in.

 

[Jim Bob]

First rounders always sign. It's the players taken in later round where the worry starts to creep in.

It is rare that a 1st rounder does not sign with the team that drafts them.

But, almost as rare is a 1st rounder staying in school right up to the point that they are a UFA.

1st rounders generally sign after their freshman or sophomore seasons. That is one reason why I do not believe it is unreasonable to have some level of concern that Johnson walks.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Just like Portillo, he has not signed an ELC and appears to be headed back to college for the last season prior to him becoming a UFA.

So, in the absence of an indication that he wants to sign, there is a reasonable amount of concern that he will walk.

I would not say it is 100% that Johnson walks as a UFA. But, I also think it is overly optimistic to expect him to sign with Buffalo, as well.

Fans are not privy to the conversations between Johnson, his family advisor, and the Sabres. So, we are left to guess as to what will happen.

Yeah, I think almost every situation needs to be looked at a case-by-case basis. It's certainly reassuring to see that the vast majority of college players do end up signing, but I think in Johnson's (and Portillo's) case the situation isn't quite as clear. The majority of players we signed weren't really highly touted prospects, minus the first rounders. The lower-round guys that end up signing don't really have too much of a choice. They're likely going to need AHL time one way or another, and they're not going to be highly coveted UFA's where they'd have the choice to go anywhere they want.

What's concerning about Johnson and Portillo is that we know Kevyn Adams tried to sign both this season. There was the Elliotte Freidman remark on After The Whistle about how Adams was frustrated with negotiations with Portillo. I'd also speculate that Adams didn't seem to be overly pleased when discussing Ryan Johnson at the end of season press conference. If we're going to calculate a probability of somebody signing I think you'd have to narrow it down comparables to players that were in a similar situation of:

- Valuable player, 15+ teams would be interested
- Drafting team tried to sign, player refused
- One year away from UFA

In similar instances of the above, I'd say the probability of a player signing drops massively. Not that there's a ton that don't end up signing, but the ones that don't sign certainly fit the criteria above.

My personal opinion is that there's about a 10-20% chance that Johnson signs. Portillo I think is higher - he was buddies with Owen Power at Michigan and used to joke that he would make Owen lace up his pads. He's also friends with Dahlin. I do believe that the business degree stuff that Dahlin mentioned probably played a big factor in Portillo wanting to go back (but unless I missed something - he would actually need 2 more years to finish that degree, he's actually eligible to go UFA as a Junior, unless he completes his program early). With Johnson, you have the factors of his dad working for the LA Kings AHL club + growing up and watching his dad play in California. Not a clear future on the Sabres with Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson. From what I can tell he doesn't really have any connections with players currently on our roster. If I were to put myself into Johnson's shoes - I don't think I sign either tbh.

 

[RhinoFan]

Yeah, I think almost every situation needs to be looked at a case-by-case basis. It's certainly reassuring to see that the vast majority of college players do end up signing, but I think in Johnson's (and Portillo's) case the situation isn't quite as clear. The majority of players we signed weren't really highly touted prospects, minus the first rounders. The lower-round guys that end up signing don't really have too much of a choice. They're likely going to need AHL time one way or another, and they're not going to be highly coveted UFA's where they'd have the choice to go anywhere they want.

What's concerning about Johnson and Portillo is that we know Kevyn Adams tried to sign both this season. There was the Elliotte Freidman remark on After The Whistle about how Adams was frustrated with negotiations with Portillo. I'd also speculate that Adams didn't seem to be overly pleased when discussing Ryan Johnson at the end of season press conference. If we're going to calculate a probability of somebody signing I think you'd have to narrow it down comparables to players that were in a similar situation of:

- Valuable player, 15+ teams would be interested
- Drafting team tried to sign, player refused
- One year away from UFA

In similar instances of the above, I'd say the probability of a player signing drops massively. Not that there's a ton that don't end up signing, but the ones that don't sign certainly fit the criteria above.

My personal opinion is that there's about a 10-20% chance that Johnson signs. Portillo I think is higher - he was buddies with Owen Power at Michigan and used to joke that he would make Owen lace up his pads. He's also friends with Dahlin. I do believe that the business degree stuff that Dahlin mentioned probably played a big factor in Portillo wanting to go back (but unless I missed something - he would actually need 2 more years to finish that degree, he's actually eligible to go UFA as a Junior, unless he completes his program early). With Johnson, you have the factors of his dad working for the LA Kings AHL club + growing up and watching his dad play in California. Not a clear future on the Sabres with Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson. From what I can tell he doesn't really have any connections with players currently on our roster. If I were to put myself into Johnson's shoes - I don't think I sign either tbh.

Agreed with a lot of this, the only thing I see as off is the Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson part. RJ played a lot of RHD coming up here, we have next to nothing on that side. If he could figure out how to play a decent NHL game, there's a good chance he's playing top4 if not top pairing minutes pretty quickly. Not sure the big 3 are a reason for him to go elsewhere. There might be a slightly better situation as far as minutes go, but not by too much.

 

[Jim Bob]

Agreed with a lot of this, the only thing I see as off is the Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson part. RJ played a lot of RHD coming up here, we have next to nothing on that side. If he could figure out how to play a decent NHL game, there's a good chance he's playing top4 if not top line minutes pretty quickly. Not sure the big 3 are a reason for him to go elsewhere. There might be a slightly better situation as far as minutes go, but not by too much.

It wouldn't be crazy to think that the top 4 in a couple of years is:

Samuelsson-Dahlin
Power-Johnson

 

[RhinoFan]

It wouldn't be crazy to think that the top 4 in a couple of years is:

Samuelsson-Dahlin
Power-Johnson

Exactly. I hope jmelm is right and he just unexpectedly signs next year, he's got a pathway here.

The one promising thing is unlike a guy like Lemieux, where we qucikly heard he wasn't signing here, that hasn't happened with Johnson. Let the real reason be "unfinished business" for him and Portillo please lol.

 

[joshjull]

It is rare that a 1st rounder does not sign with the team that drafts them.

But, almost as rare is a 1st rounder staying in school right up to the point that they are a UFA.

1st rounders generally sign after their freshman or sophomore seasons. That is one reason why I do not believe it is unreasonable to have some level of concern that Johnson walks.

I think you’re leaning a little too heavily into the first round stuff. The 31st overall pick being a 1st rounder is a fairly recent thing with Johnson being only the 3rd one ever. He’s 1 of only 5 so far.

I’m curious how much differently posters would look at this if he was the 1st pick in the second round. Maybe not much but that 1st round status really spins posters up.

 

[jmelm]

Wow. I thought optimistic would be like 60/40. I respect your opinion on a lot of topics but I’ll have to disagree in this particular one.

I was just being hyperbolic. But given the relative silence we've heard around this player from the organization, his family connections to LA, the prospect of playing with his buddy and possible D partner Faber in LA, and the fact that LA (like the Sabres) is a team really on the rise with an incredibly bright future, my feeling is that it's 80% he doesn't sign here. That's just my gut.

I do wonder, however, if a team like Arizona would trade for him, because they could offer him something BUF might not (and possibly LA might not) which is a chance to play this season and to burn a year off his ELC. I have no idea how much those kind of contractual considerations have for him personally.

ARI, SEA, ANA or those kinds of teams with multiple second round picks, I wonder if BUF looks at trading RJ there if they feel there's a strong chance he won't sign here.

 

[HaNotsri]

Is there any indication that he's going to leave?

The fact that he isn't signed?

 

[Jim Bob]

I think you’re leaning a little too heavily into the first round stuff. The 31st overall pick being a 1st rounder is a fairly recent thing with Johnson being only the 3rd one ever. He’s 1 of only 5 so far.

I’m curious how much differently posters would look at this if he was the 1st pick in the second round. Maybe not much but that 1st round status really spins posters up.

Even if you widen it to the top 40 overall picks, players do not tend to use all 4 post-draft years like Johnson appears to be headed.

In 2019, you had a decent number of college guys drafted in the 25-40 range:

30 - John Beecher - BOS - Signed after the 21-22 season at Michigan
31 - Ryan Johnson - BUF - Still unsigned - U. of Minnesota
32 - Shane Pinto - OTT - Signed after the 20-21 season at North Dakota
34 - Bobby Brink - PHI - Signed after the 21-22 season at Denver
39 - Jackson LaCombe - ANA - Still unsigned - U. of Minnesota

In 2018, you have to widen the net a little bit:

26 - Jacob Bernard-Docker - OTT - Signed after the 20-21 season at North Dakota
32 - Mattias Samuelsson - BUF - Signed after the 2019-20 season at Western Michigan
42 - Jack Drury - CAR - Signed after playing the 20-21 season in the SHL after two years at Harvard
45 - Scott Perunovich - STL - Signed after the 19-20 season at UMD

 

[joshjull]

Yeah, I think almost every situation needs to be looked at a case-by-case basis. It's certainly reassuring to see that the vast majority of college players do end up signing, but I think in Johnson's (and Portillo's) case the situation isn't quite as clear. The majority of players we signed weren't really highly touted prospects, minus the first rounders. The lower-round guys that end up signing don't really have too much of a choice. They're likely going to need AHL time one way or another, and they're not going to be highly coveted UFA's where they'd have the choice to go anywhere they want.

What's concerning about Johnson and Portillo is that we know Kevyn Adams tried to sign both this season. There was the Elliotte Freidman remark on After The Whistle about how Adams was frustrated with negotiations with Portillo. I'd also speculate that Adams didn't seem to be overly pleased when discussing Ryan Johnson at the end of season press conference. If we're going to calculate a probability of somebody signing I think you'd have to narrow it down comparables to players that were in a similar situation of:

- Valuable player, 15+ teams would be interested
- Drafting team tried to sign, player refused
- One year away from UFA

In similar instances of the above, I'd say the probability of a player signing drops massively. Not that there's a ton that don't end up signing, but the ones that don't sign certainly fit the criteria above.

My personal opinion is that there's about a 10-20% chance that Johnson signs. Portillo I think is higher - he was buddies with Owen Power at Michigan and used to joke that he would make Owen lace up his pads. He's also friends with Dahlin. I do believe that the business degree stuff that Dahlin mentioned probably played a big factor in Portillo wanting to go back (but unless I missed something - he would actually need 2 more years to finish that degree, he's actually eligible to go UFA as a Junior, unless he completes his program early). With Johnson, you have the factors of his dad working for the LA Kings AHL club + growing up and watching his dad play in California. Not a clear future on the Sabres with Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson. From what I can tell he doesn't really have any connections with players currently on our roster. If I were to put myself into Johnson's shoes - I don't think I sign either tbh.

Whatever decision Johnson makes I doubt the depth chart will play much of a role. Players who go the free agency route generally do it because they simply don’t want to play for who drafted them or they want to pick their team. Peterson left us to go to a more difficult goalie situation in LA. Vesey went to free agency because that was his family’s plan no matter who drafted him.

I also don’t know why you’re assuming his father will be a negative. Casey Fitzgerald’s dad played in many NHL cities and has been a NHL executive for some time. Plus Casey has cousins in the NHL (Tkachuks/Hayes). Yet he still signed with us after 4 years. Even signed an ATO to play in Rochester when his season ended. His ELC started the following year.

I don’t know what Johnson will ultimately decide. But I think some of your are trying way too hard to find reasons why he won’t sign.

 

[joshjull]

Even if you widen it to the top 40 overall picks, players do not tend to use all 4 post-draft years like Johnson appears to be headed.

In 2019, you had a decent number of college guys drafted in the 25-40 range:

30 - John Beecher - BOS - Signed after the 21-22 season at Michigan
31 - Ryan Johnson - BUF - Still unsigned - U. of Minnesota
32 - Shane Pinto - OTT - Signed after the 20-21 season at North Dakota
34 - Bobby Brink - PHI - Signed after the 21-22 season at Denver
39 - Jackson LaCombe - ANA - Still unsigned - U. of Minnesota

In 2018, you have to widen the net a little bit:

26 - Jacob Bernard-Docker - OTT - Signed after the 20-21 season at North Dakota
32 - Mattias Samuelsson - BUF - Signed after the 2019-20 season at Western Michigan
42 - Jack Drury - CAR - Signed after playing the 20-21 season in the SHL after two years at Harvard
45 - Scott Perunovich - STL - Signed after the 19-20 season at UMD

Ironically the two guys returning are teammates at Minny.

 

[Jacob582]

Are Johnson and Portillo eligible to be invited to development camp?

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Ironically the two guys returning are teammates at Minny.

I still don't think Johnson has even committed to return to Minny yet either. Last I had heard of it was that he was still trying to decide but was leaning toward returning.

 

[Fly Boy]

Ironically the two guys returning are teammates at Minny.

To add to that, Minny didn't lose much in terms of their top guys outside of Meyers and have one of the best incoming freshman classes. They've got a real shot at the championship next year. I'm sure that factored into Johnson, Faber and LaCombe's decision.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

Are Johnson and Portillo eligible to be invited to development camp?

Yes all the college kids are eligible for development camp

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Yes all the college kids are eligible for development camp

Pham thinks he might get traded at the draft

 

[TheMistyStranger]

The fact that he isn't signed?

A lot of people aren't signed. I meant did he or a rep say that he isn't signing? Vesey was vocal about it.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Whatever decision Johnson makes I doubt the depth chart will play much of a role. Players who go the free agency route generally do it because they simply don’t want to play for who drafted them or they want to pick their team. Peterson left us to go to a more difficult goalie situation in LA. Vesey went to free agency because that was his family’s plan no matter who drafted him.

I also don’t know why you’re assuming his father will be a negative. Casey Fitzgerald’s dad played in many NHL cities and has been a NHL executive for some time. Plus Casey has cousins in the NHL (Tkachuks/Hayes). Yet he still signed with us after 4 years. Even signed an ATO to play in Rochester when his season ended. His ELC started the following year.

I don’t know what Johnson will ultimately decide. But I think some of your are trying way too hard to find reasons why he won’t sign.

I don't know how the depth chart wouldn't play a role. At least to me - if I had the option to go to UFA and a team tells me that they have a sure-fire third line LHD spot for me for 82 games - or the Sabres are telling me that they want me to play on my off-hand, it would factor into the equation.

You really can't compare Casey Fitzgerald to Ryan Johnson. Not that Johnson is some sure-fire can't miss prospect, but he would have no shortage of suitors if he goes to UFA. Fitzgerald was (and probably still is) a number 7 defenseman at best. I have a very hard time seeing any team telling him that had a job right away in the NHL if he signed. The UFA route just wasn't a realistic option for him, it made sense to sign with the Sabres.

Personally, I don't think I'm looking too hard to find reasons he won't sign, but if you compile all the reasons we have so far it's hard to say it sounds likely. Overall though - I'm getting the sense that you and I will have a hard time agreeing on most Sabres topics. You're much more of a glass-half-full kind of guy. While I have no problem praising moves I support, I'll be the first to admit that I have a very critical stance of our current ownership and management, and until I see a reason to not have that any longer it'll probably stay the same. It doesn't mean your points aren't valid, but we're just probably not going to agree.

 

[Chainshot]

Pham thinks he might get traded at the draft

Did PHam put in more than a couple hours work at a week-long event to come up with that nugget?

 

[Ace]

Yeah, I think almost every situation needs to be looked at a case-by-case basis. It's certainly reassuring to see that the vast majority of college players do end up signing, but I think in Johnson's (and Portillo's) case the situation isn't quite as clear. The majority of players we signed weren't really highly touted prospects, minus the first rounders. The lower-round guys that end up signing don't really have too much of a choice. They're likely going to need AHL time one way or another, and they're not going to be highly coveted UFA's where they'd have the choice to go anywhere they want.

What's concerning about Johnson and Portillo is that we know Kevyn Adams tried to sign both this season. There was the Elliotte Freidman remark on After The Whistle about how Adams was frustrated with negotiations with Portillo. I'd also speculate that Adams didn't seem to be overly pleased when discussing Ryan Johnson at the end of season press conference. If we're going to calculate a probability of somebody signing I think you'd have to narrow it down comparables to players that were in a similar situation of:

- Valuable player, 15+ teams would be interested
- Drafting team tried to sign, player refused
- One year away from UFA

In similar instances of the above, I'd say the probability of a player signing drops massively. Not that there's a ton that don't end up signing, but the ones that don't sign certainly fit the criteria above.

My personal opinion is that there's about a 10-20% chance that Johnson signs. Portillo I think is higher - he was buddies with Owen Power at Michigan and used to joke that he would make Owen lace up his pads. He's also friends with Dahlin. I do believe that the business degree stuff that Dahlin mentioned probably played a big factor in Portillo wanting to go back (but unless I missed something - he would actually need 2 more years to finish that degree, he's actually eligible to go UFA as a Junior, unless he completes his program early). With Johnson, you have the factors of his dad working for the LA Kings AHL club + growing up and watching his dad play in California. Not a clear future on the Sabres with Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson. From what I can tell he doesn't really have any connections with players currently on our roster. If I were to put myself into Johnson's shoes - I don't think I sign either tbh.

The problem with Portillo is opportunity. He chose to pass on his opportunity at an open net in Rochester. At the end of this year Levi is expected to sign. That means he’s fighting Levi for starts in Rochester in 2024-25. That’s not ideal for either of their development since both need to play as much as possible. He has the option to walk onto any teams AHL roster he chooses where he isnt at best 1B. He’s gone.

 

[jmelm]

Did PHam put in more than a couple hours work at a week-long event to come up with that nugget?

Lol. I don't know who this PHam dude is (my apologies for being out of the loop), but it's no great insight -- including my own speculation a few months ago -- that Ryan Johnson is a strong candidate to be traded at the draft if the Sabres don't think he'll re-sign here because of the LD depth and would prefer to go elsewhere.

Ditto for Portillo but I'm a bit less concerned because although we have Levi, we don't have anyone else who's an existing starter or blue chip prospect, and there's the Swedish connection to Dahlin (don't they have a personal or family relationship/familiarity?) and other Swedes on our roster in general. That's why I'm more 60/40 or even better than he'll sign here, relative to Johnson.

p.s. I thought Johnson did indicate he was going back to school, but has that clearly not been stated? At this point, several weeks out from the end of his season, I would be surprised if he had not made a commitment one way or another. And if indeed he has not committed to either signing or returning to school by the draft, that just makes my opinion of his likelihood to be traded skyrocket.