Not going into the whole big thing so just two quick points:
1. Me throwing in Trenin or Maltsev is in no way different than you throwing in Podkolzin. Is he in any way, shape, or form a similar player to Chinakhov? What do they have in common other than a somewhat similar draft position? Since it was my initial question I just have to repeat it: how is Podkolzin any kind of example in this case, especially for a ruined career path? You are just throwing him in there because "you think you know what the likely result would be".
2. Again, bringing up Buchnevich is no more laughable than bringing up Podkolzin. Do you really believe Podkolzin wouldn't have been a top-6 forward for Cherepovets? Or Amur? Or Neftekhimik? Or any number of other teams? If you treat top-6 forward on Severstal and top-6 forward on SKA the same way your whole cut-off point of "established top-6 forward" makes no sense. And that's what I'm saying. Not that he left too early. And how ignorant it is to say "the SKA stats were an anomaly" while completely ignoring Podkolzin plays for the very same team and is in a very similar situation.
Also, it's somewhat hilarious you write "you don't know what you're saying" to me in a paragraph where you completely rework the truth to fit your narrative. When I'm fairly sure you know perfectly well I do know what I'm saying.
1. If I didn't explain it before, I'll explain it now. If you look at the forwards to be drafted first round the last five drafts out of Russia, the list is is Rubtsov, Kostin, Kravtsov, Denisenko, Amirov, and Chinakhov. The latter two you can't take much yet other than they had respectable D+1 seasons in the KHL. The first four I think we can start looking at their career trajectory. Rubtsov is a bust already. Kostin might've been drafted 31st, so not a huge bust if he doesn't pan out, but projecting him to be top 6 is probably unrealistic, and even top 9 might not be very likely. It's too early to call Kravtsov and Denisenko busts yet, but they weren't as good early on as some expected, and I think heading to NA was the wrong option for both. With Kravtsov, I think it's already been proven to have been the wrong option.
Of those first four first round picks, what they all have in common is they went to NA before they established themselves as good KHL players. I don't think a player needs to be the best player in the KHL before they enter the NHL. But I think they should be good enough that they can stick in an NHL top 6, or at minimum top 9 on a team that will keep them 3rd line with PP time. I think the context always matters, but I would say that a player should be scoring at at least a 2/3 to a 3/4 rate in the KHL per season before they leave for the NHL to be ready for that top 6/at minimum top 9 role.
With a player like Podkolzin, he might be able to score at that rate on a team that will play him as much as Chinakhov plays, but he's not. He's in a less than optimal situation. I don't think the solution though is to leave for NA, and try to play a grinder's role for Vancouver because they are poorly built, and are willing to rush him into the NHL. I think the best solution is to ask for a trade to another KHL team, and sign for 2/3 more years. With Kravtsov, he should've never signed an ELC after his D+1 season. He was rushed. I would still say he should play in the KHL until he shows he's NHL ready. I don't know if thats one more season, two, or he'll never be NHL ready, but right now he's not NHL ready.
I think Chinakhov, and Amirov for that matter, want to avoid the situations of these four players. I think they are a good example of what not to do, even though there are some differences in how they play. I still think though that they should want to be good/very good KHL'ers before they leave to NA because they should want to come to NA ready to step in and impact the NHL.
2. In this discussion I didn't even comment on how Podkolzin would play for another KHL team until this post, so to say I'm deliberately trying to spin a narrative is disingenuous. As I said above, I believe he could be productive for a better team, but he's not on a different team. The answer to a lack of proper development is not to try to skip all development entirely because hypothetically he's talented enough to have developed well with a different team. I think the answer is that unfortunately he's a little behind schedule due to the lack of development. Maybe after one more KHL season he'd be really good on another team, and it wouldn't have set Podkolzin back too much, but I absolutely think it's the wrong decision and will further hurt his career to sign with Vancouver.
