RW Tyler Boucher - Belleville Senators, AHL (2021, 10th, OTT)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Strictly out of curiosity, what was it that compelled the Senators to sign him to an ELC in December 2021? It doesn't seem that at that point he had shown enough to merit a contract and they had until 2023 to make a decision.

What? Teams sign players drafted like 4th or 5th round to ELC's not long after being drafted.

The idea he's not worth a contract is insane. Whether he becomes a productive NHL'er is to be determined, but not every player a team signs does so, and teams know that. They don't expect that every player they sign will turn into an NHL'er. They are perfectly okay with some players only being players for their AHL team.

 

[justHypnos]

What? Teams sign players drafted like 4th or 5th round to ELC's not long after being drafted.

The idea he's not worth a contract is insane. Whether he becomes a productive NHL'er is to be determined, but not every player a team signs does so, and teams know that. They don't expect that every player they sign will turn into an NHL'er. They are perfectly okay with some players only being players for their AHL team.

If I am not mistaken, the Sens would have gotten an early 2nd round pick if they chose not to sign Boucher. I think it's a valid question.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If I am not mistaken, the Sens would have gotten an early 2nd round pick if they chose not to sign Boucher. I think it's a valid question.

That wasn't his question.

And most second round picks never play an NHL game.

I don't think you could seriously argue either Boucher isn't top 64 for his draft right now, whether he ends up being worth a first round pick or not.

Too many have the wrong idea about the average draft pick that isn't one of the first few picks of a draft. You probably aren't getting a substantial NHL player. Those players can be found, but it's few and far between.

A new draft pick isn't always better either. Teams prefer players they have more data on and have worked with than a hypothetical draft pick in the future of some player who is probably 15 years old right now anyway. Thats why teams prefer to trade future draft picks over those they've already picked.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Strictly out of curiosity, what was it that compelled the Senators to sign him to an ELC in December 2021? It doesn't seem that at that point he had shown enough to merit a contract and they had until 2023 to make a decision.

If a drafted player leaves NCAA and then goes to the CHL without signing an ELC, how would that impact their time on the Reserve List per the CBA? Does it change the clock at all?

Anyways, I see a lot of similarities to another former USNDTP first name Tyler... Tyler Biggs based on their stories to date. A 1st round pick of the Leafs in 2011. Both were big bodied "safe" crash and bang wingers that the team was chasing the Tom Wilson unicorn upside type. Neither was particularly productive with the USNDTP Biggs only went 22nd, Boucher even higher with the whole "mystery" factor being that he was injured for much of his draft year. Both showed they weren't really ready for college hockey and quit to go play in the OHL and did just ok. Both played 3rd line type minutes in a World Juniors. Both were 4th line AHL players as rookies. What makes Boucher potentially worse is that he was drafted 12 spots higher so there's more expectations for him, and on top of everything else, he's been injured a lot.

Biggs ended up being an ECHL demotee, washed out and retired from hockey at 26 and now work as an EMT. We'll see where Boucher's story goes from here.

 

[WarriorofTime]

That wasn't his question.

And most second round picks never play an NHL game.

I don't think you could seriously argue either Boucher isn't top 64 for his draft right now, whether he ends up being worth a first round pick or not.

Too many have the wrong idea about the average draft pick that isn't one of the first few picks of a draft. You probably aren't getting a substantial NHL player. Those players can be found, but it's few and far between.

A new draft pick isn't always better either. Teams prefer players they have more data on and have worked with than a hypothetical draft pick in the future of some player who is probably 15 years old right now anyway. Thats why teams prefer to trade future draft picks over those they've already picked.

There isn't a team in the League that would trade a 2nd round pick for a 21 year old AHL 4th line forward. Not a chance. Teams trade their 2nd round picks for rentals that can play top 9 minutes in the postseason... Otherwise, they go with the mystery box, a 15 % chance of getting a player down the line that is very good is worth a lot more than an AHL 4th line forward in the first year of their ELC. There is no upside there, teams have enough of those kind of "maybe a plug potential" in their systems.

 

[BondraTime]

Strictly out of curiosity, what was it that compelled the Senators to sign him to an ELC in December 2021? It doesn't seem that at that point he had shown enough to merit a contract and they had until 2023 to make a decision.

They wanted to get him to Ottawa (67’s) as he was developing horribly at BU.

In order to get him to switch leagues and come to Ottawa, they signed him to his ELC he otherwise would have been unable to in the NCAA.

It was a carrot at the end of the stick to get him where they wanted him for development reasons.

 

[nbwingsfan]

So many posts just to say you haven’t watched him play this year, while commenting on his play this year, and arguing with a guy who has watched all his games.
Bravo! Peak HF.

Is 5pts in 21 games good in ANY context?

Also yes, going to take the views of scouts over random Sens fans who need/want Boucher to succeed so they will see what they want to see.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Is 5pts in 21 games good in ANY context?

The context of a "he is a contributing member with a regular shift towards a middle of the road AHL team that is 4th out of 7th in its division".

Granted, this site tends to focus more of its discussion on players that can do a bit more than that.... But you know, no shame to all the guys out there grinding out hockey careers being 22nd in PPG on their team that is an average AHL team.

 

[PlayersLtd]

Just so everyone can be aware of what’s actually happening with Boucher, he was injured on Wednesday.

Before then, he was playing on the fourth line, but the reports suggested he was playing well.

Was playing up and down the lineup. Started on the 4th, moved through the lineup, eventually got a short opportunity on the 1st line, was back on 4th line when he got injured. And was regularly on PP2.

 

[MS]

That wasn't his question.

And most second round picks never play an NHL game.

This is definitely not true. Fans do definitely overrate draft pick odds, but most 2nd rounders do get some NHL action :

2013 - 23/30 played an NHL game
2014 - 18/30
2015 - 23/31
2016 - 24/31
2017 - 22/31

Generally around 65-70% of 2nd rounders eventually play an NHL game. Somewhere around 50-55% play 100 NHL games. 25-30% stick as NHL regulars.

I don't think you could seriously argue either Boucher isn't top 64 for his draft right now, whether he ends up being worth a first round pick or not.

A guy with 4th line upside is definitely not in the top 64 picks of that 2021 draft right now.

He might play enough games to finish in the top 64 of that draft 20 years from now, but there are guys who will end up busting that still carry substantially more upside and value right now.

Right now out of the top 64 players selected in the 2021 draft, Boucher would rank 50th-55th or so. And there's a lot more than 10 guys who have passed him in the other 5 rounds.

Too many have the wrong idea about the average draft pick that isn't one of the first few picks of a draft. You probably aren't getting a substantial NHL player. Those players can be found, but it's few and far between.

A new draft pick isn't always better either. Teams prefer players they have more data on and have worked with than a hypothetical draft pick in the future of some player who is probably 15 years old right now anyway. Thats why teams prefer to trade future draft picks over those they've already picked.

This is partly down to TVM, partly down to Stockholm Syndrome and familiarity bias, partly down to the fact that buying teams prefer the 'mystery box' and partly down to the fact that draft picks generally separate pretty quickly into 'guys the selling team absolutely won't trade' vs. 'guys that nobody really wants' without a ton of players falling in the middle.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This is definitely not true. Fans do definitely overrate draft pick odds, but most 2nd rounders do get some NHL action :

2013 - 23/30 played an NHL game
2014 - 18/30
2015 - 23/31
2016 - 24/31
2017 - 22/31

Generally around 65-70% of 2nd rounders eventually play an NHL game. Somewhere around 50-55% play 100 NHL games. 25-30% stick as NHL regulars.



A guy with 4th line upside is definitely not in the top 64 picks of that 2021 draft right now.

He might play enough games to finish in the top 64 of that draft 20 years from now, but there are guys who will end up busting that still carry substantially more upside and value right now.

Right now out of the top 64 players selected in the 2021 draft, Boucher would rank 50th-55th or so. And there's a lot more than 10 guys who have passed him in the other 5 rounds.




This is partly down to TVM, partly down to Stockholm Syndrome and familiarity bias, partly down to the fact that buying teams prefer the 'mystery box' and partly down to the fact that draft picks generally separate pretty quickly into 'guys the selling team absolutely won't trade' vs. 'guys that nobody really wants' without a ton of players falling in the middle.

This is all very well said. I think just to add, 4th line players and thus future 4th line players are pretty much worthless. I think when fans hear "future 4th liner" for a young prospect, they like to envision a player playing 4th line in a Stanley Cup final, grinding out high pressure shifts, being an ace penalty killer and every so often chipping in that big unexpected goal. Reality is though a normal Stanley Cup champion likely has a bottom six consisting of players, bolstered by "going all in" and possibly trade deadline acquisitions (which the pro-rata salary cap allows you to add in a non-compliant start of season fashion), that are "playing down" about 0.5 - 1.0 lines compared to where they would be on a very average team just fighting to make the postseason. Your average regular season 4th line player is one that you don't need to necessarily fill from a prospect pool. 11th-14th forwards and 6th and 7th defenseman, and depending on the team and where they fall, could likely be extended to Forwards 9 and 10, and Defenseman 5, can be filled just as easily via very cheap, no commitment, making at or near the league minimum Free Agents or even via Waiver Claims if you need it.

That's why the whole "Games Played" thing is not an end all be all for me. Man games played is going to be filled up by 18 players x 82 games worth by every team no matter what across the League in every season, no matter the way in which those players are acquired. This isn't a Men's League Roster scrambling to find a player just to throw out there. Just being a warm body, replacement level player doesn't move the needle at all as far as being a decent value pick in my eyes. Especially for high 1st round picks that often get opportunity after opportunity to try and prove they don't suck. Whenever I hear "well he wasn't so worthless a pick, he played 250 games" I shake my head. There's a reason those types often do it across a multitude of teams, ending up on whichever team needed to plug someone in at a given moment in time. The insanely high upside (the kind of players you have and then clutch extremely tightly for as long as they're willing) and cheap, cost-controlled middle six forward/middle 3 type depth are the best value when it comes to draft picks. Not just being a Minor League churner for the rest of the League to develop the warm bodies needed to fill out lineups on a nightly basis.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This is definitely not true. Fans do definitely overrate draft pick odds, but most 2nd rounders do get some NHL action :

2013 - 23/30 played an NHL game
2014 - 18/30
2015 - 23/31
2016 - 24/31
2017 - 22/31

Generally around 65-70% of 2nd rounders eventually play an NHL game. Somewhere around 50-55% play 100 NHL games. 25-30% stick as NHL regulars.



A guy with 4th line upside is definitely not in the top 64 picks of that 2021 draft right now.

He might play enough games to finish in the top 64 of that draft 20 years from now, but there are guys who will end up busting that still carry substantially more upside and value right now.

Right now out of the top 64 players selected in the 2021 draft, Boucher would rank 50th-55th or so. And there's a lot more than 10 guys who have passed him in the other 5 rounds.




This is partly down to TVM, partly down to Stockholm Syndrome and familiarity bias, partly down to the fact that buying teams prefer the 'mystery box' and partly down to the fact that draft picks generally separate pretty quickly into 'guys the selling team absolutely won't trade' vs. 'guys that nobody really wants' without a ton of players falling in the middle.

Let’s hear your 64 then.

 

[Byron Bitz]

What? Teams sign players drafted like 4th or 5th round to ELC's not long after being drafted.

The idea he's not worth a contract is insane. Whether he becomes a productive NHL'er is to be determined, but not every player a team signs does so, and teams know that. They don't expect that every player they sign will turn into an NHL'er. They are perfectly okay with some players only being players for their AHL team.

It’s not a question of whether or not he is worth a contract. It’s a question of whether or not he is worth more than a second round pick which is what they would get as compensation for not signing him.

 

[justHypnos]

A new draft pick isn't always better either. Teams prefer players they have more data on and have worked with than a hypothetical draft pick in the future of some player who is probably 15 years old right now anyway. Thats why teams prefer to trade future draft picks over those they've already picked.

The Flyers let O'Brien go for a 2nd round pick and the Coyotes before that did the same with Bleackley. Fun fact, Filip Hronek was drafted with the pick from Bleackley.

 

[mouser]

That wasn't his question.

And most second round picks never play an NHL game.

You may want to check the statistics, you’re woefully wrong on this.

I only skimmed back to 2000, but in every draft year from 2000 to 2019 over 50% of 2nd round picks each draft played at least one NHL game.

The 2020 draft class is currently at 15 of the 32 players drafted in the 2nd round with a NHL game to their credit.

 

[mouser]

If a drafted player leaves NCAA and then goes to the CHL without signing an ELC, how would that impact their time on the Reserve List per the CBA? Does it change the clock at all?

Anyways, I see a lot of similarities to another former USNDTP first name Tyler... Tyler Biggs based on their stories to date. A 1st round pick of the Leafs in 2011. Both were big bodied "safe" crash and bang wingers that the team was chasing the Tom Wilson unicorn upside type. Neither was particularly productive with the USNDTP Biggs only went 22nd, Boucher even higher with the whole "mystery" factor being that he was injured for much of his draft year. Both showed they weren't really ready for college hockey and quit to go play in the OHL and did just ok. Both played 3rd line type minutes in a World Juniors. Both were 4th line AHL players as rookies. What makes Boucher potentially worse is that he was drafted 12 spots higher so there's more expectations for him, and on top of everything else, he's been injured a lot.

Biggs ended up being an ECHL demotee, washed out and retired from hockey at 26 and now work as an EMT. We'll see where Boucher's story goes from here.

If a Player is drafted as a College Player—or becomes a College Player after the draft while the drafting team still holds his draft rights—then It doesn’t matter whether the player later leaves college to join the CHL or any other league.

The Team continues to hold the same four years of College Draft rights for a Player drafted at age 18/19.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Twenty-year-olds in their first pro season taking time to put up numbers is not uncommon. While they're not the same player New Jersey's Mike McLeod immediately comes to mind.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Twenty-year-olds in their first pro season taking time to put up numbers is not uncommon. While they're not the same player New Jersey's Mike McLeod immediately comes to mind.

Ehh... This isn't quite the same scenario. McLeod was picked 12th and was generally ranked in the middle of the 1st round.

Boucher was picked 10th and immediately had people scratching their heads because he was universally ranked late 1st at highest, all the way to mid-2nd round by some. And he's not really done a whole lot, if anything, to validate Ottawa reaching for him.

It didn't really make much sense because, if Ottawa really wanted him, they probably could've traded their two 2nd round picks or a 2nd + Prospect to grab him late in the 1st.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It didn't really make much sense because, if Ottawa really wanted him, they probably could've traded their two 2nd round picks or a 2nd + Prospect to grab him late in the 1st.

Fans always say things like this, but the reality is that nobody has any clue whether this is true. The drafting team has the best idea, and there were rumors he’d be picked not long after Ottawa’s pick. And finding a trade in a specific range of the first round is never as easy in real life as the NHL video game.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Ehh... This isn't quite the same scenario. McLeod was picked 12th and was generally ranked in the middle of the 1st round.

Boucher was picked 10th and immediately had people scratching their heads because he was universally ranked late 1st at highest, all the way to mid-2nd round by some. And he's not really done a whole lot, if anything, to validate Ottawa reaching for him.

It didn't really make much sense because, if Ottawa really wanted him, they probably could've traded their two 2nd round picks or a 2nd + Prospect to grab him late in the 1st.

They allegedly had intel that the Rangers (who had pick 16) were interested in Boucher, likely couldn't find a suitable trad eback and then decided to reach on him at 10.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Fans always say things like this, but the reality is that nobody has any clue whether this is true. The drafting team has the best idea, and there were rumors he’d be picked not long after Ottawa’s pick. And finding a trade in a specific range of the first round is never as easy in real life as the NHL video game.

Maybe not, but it still doesn't mean you blow a Top 10 pick on a guy ranked late 1st - mid 2nd. Detroit got shit on heavily for doing this with Seider, and he was ranked way higher than Boucher.

It's different when you're using a 2nd round pick for a guy ranked in the 4th/5th rounds. You're reaching with a pick that's already a crapshoot. Reaching with a top 10 pick is dumb, because you're typically getting at least a contributing NHLer out of it.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Maybe not, but it still doesn't mean you blow a Top 10 pick on a guy ranked late 1st - mid 2nd. Detroit got shit on heavily for doing this with Seider, and he was ranked way higher than Boucher.

It's different when you're using a 2nd round pick for a guy ranked in the 4th/5th rounds. You're reaching with a pick that's already a crapshoot. Reaching with a top 10 pick is dumb, because you're typically getting at least a contributing NHLer out of it.

About half the time. You usually get a player who can play a few seasons. Whether you get a guy that can sustain a career for like 8+ seasons is hit or miss.

I documented this here. To give a comparison of what roughly Boucher’s potential could be, the median outcome is someone like Nick Ritchie. A contributor, a few good seasons, some average seasons, and then a few as a bottom barrel NHL’er.

2020: Perfetti-69 games and counting. He's trending towards being a top 6 scoring forward.
2019: Podkolzin-118 games and counting. Might sustain a career as a bottom 6F (likely 4th line).
2018: Bouchard-184 games and counting. He's some type of top 4D, arguably top pair.
2017: Tippett-192 games and counting. Has taken some time, but he's now a 2nd liner.
2016: Jost-413 games and counting. He might sustain a career as a 4th liner. Won't be any more.
2015: Rantanen-490 games and counting. Occasionally you hit the jackpot.
2014: Ritchie-481 games and counting. Broke 30 points once (31). Solid bottom 6F, yet no more.
2013: Nichushkin-458 games and counting. He's become a first liner in his late 20's.
2012: Koekkoek-186 games. Never more than 42 games in a season.
2011: Brodin-741 games. Occasionally you hit the jackpot.
2010: McIlrath-72 games. I remember this one well. He was like an 8D. 7D as a stretch.
2009: Paajarvi-467 games as a forward. Broke 20 points once.
2008: Hodgson-328 game as a forward. Broke 40 points once.
2007: Ellerby-212 games. Never more than 54 in a season.
2006: Frolik-858 games. Productive NHL forward for a lot of years. Career high of 45 points.
2005: Bourdon-36 games. Players don't only bust. Sometimes tragic things occur (RIP).
2004: Valabik-80 games. Who?
2003: Kostitsyn-Could score a little bit (career high of 53 points), but only 398 games.
2002: Nystrom-593 games. Never more than 21 points (as a forward).
2001: Blackburn-63 games. I'm a Rangers fan, and don't know much about him.
2000: Yakubov-Who? 53 NHL games.

Of the 21 games picked from 2000 to 2020, which is the 10OA since 2000 before Boucher's draft, no one has hit 1000 games. There are 5 players who likely won't hit 100 games. Likely 10-11 of them hit 500 games. You have one star (Rantanen), and a few other very good players (Brodin, Nichushkin, Bouchard). Plenty of players who ended up anywhere ranging from middle 6F for a stretch to bottom 6 to 5 or 6 D or 4th line or 13F or 7D or a little worse. Some tragedy thrown into this group.

Fans overestimate what is realistic to expect out of a 10OA. If you get the career of Nick Ritchie out of Boucher, that's like the median outcome for a 10OA. Will he get there? Not clear, but he very well could. While you wouldn't hope for that out of a 10OA, you rarely hit the jackpot, whether 1OA or 10A or 100OA.

 

[NA Hockey]

About half the time. You usually get a player who can play a few seasons. Whether you get a guy that can sustain a career for like 8+ seasons is hit or miss.

I documented this here. To give a comparison of what roughly Boucher’s potential could be, the median outcome is someone like Nick Ritchie. A contributor, a few good seasons, some average seasons, and then a few as a bottom barrel NHL’er.

Perfetti has played 120 games, is at around .6 points per game and has played in the top six basically from the start.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Perfetti has played 120 games, is at around .6 points per game and has played in the top six basically from the start.

Yeah, I agree. I was using quanthockey’s page for 10OA’s. It hasn’t updated for this seasons stats.

 

[ottawah]

Twenty-year-olds in their first pro season taking time to put up numbers is not uncommon. While they're not the same player New Jersey's Mike McLeod immediately comes to mind.

McLoed had 33 points in 55 games. Thats 3 times the pace of Boucher. If that continued Boucher would be 26 and scoring at an 11 points per 82 game pace in the NHL.

Its not that I wish the guy anything but all the luck, but nothing in his history has suggested he would going to struggle to eke out a 4th line role in the NHL, not someone you draft at 10 overall.