RW Tyler Boucher - Belleville Senators, AHL (2021, 10th, OTT)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You know Boucher was ranked often in the 2nd round at the time of the draft

They literally did what youre saying people wouldnt do picking Stankoven so early.

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The only one that seriously replicates what NHL teams think is McKenzie. He had him as a first rounder. Boucher went a lot earlier than suspected, but he was expected to be a first rounder and I suspect all NHL teams knew that a lot better than the public.

There’s always a public/private divide on some players where some small, weak skating high scoring junior players go lower than expected and bigger, more physical players with lower point totals go higher than expected.

 

[Wondercarrot]

You know Boucher was ranked often in the 2nd round at the time of the draft

They literally did what youre saying people wouldnt do picking Stankoven so early.

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Is it really hilarious though in context of Stankoven being the only player after Boucher other than Johnson ( and who would also have been a massive reach.)

Point is no one after Boucher has done anything so it’s not like Ottawa missed out. Sure they could have gotten lucky with Johnson I guess.

 

[BondraTime]

Is it really hilarious though in context of Stankoven being the only player after Boucher other than Johnson ( and who would also have been a massive reach.)

Point is no one after Boucher has done anything so it’s not like Ottawa missed out. Sure they could have gotten lucky with Johnson I guess.

It’s not the fact that guys haven’t established themselves as NHLers (Sillinger, Moser and Knies certainly have) but there are obviously many, many guys who are looking to be soon to be NHLers like Lysell, Othmann, Coronato, Lucius, etc.

Guys from the 2021 draft aren’t expected to he beating down the NHL yet, they’re expected to be making waves in the AHL or NCAA.

A guy like Scott Morrow as just 1 example, hard to argue the Sens wouldn’t be thrilled with him

 

[WarriorofTime]

Is it really hilarious though in context of Stankoven being the only player after Boucher other than Johnson ( and who would also have been a massive reach.)

Point is no one after Boucher has done anything so it’s not like Ottawa missed out. Sure they could have gotten lucky with Johnson I guess.

A bit early to say that? All players are still very young and in their first pro seasons. Most of the picks after have been much better in AHL and appear to be more ready for the NHL in a faster timeline.

 

[wetcoast]

Is it really hilarious though in context of Stankoven being the only player after Boucher other than Johnson ( and who would also have been a massive reach.)

Point is no one after Boucher has done anything so it’s not like Ottawa missed out. Sure they could have gotten lucky with Johnson I guess.

It was a weird draft and the guys are still young and developing but Boucher was a huge reach as was the Sens second rounder that year as well they were thinking big but both guys are trending as they might get a handful of games type of careers and that's it at this point.

 

[BondraTime]

It was a weird draft and the guys are still young and developing but Boucher was a huge reach as was the Sens second rounder that year as well they were thinking big but both guys are trending as they might get a handful of games type of careers and that's it at this point.

Ostapchuk is trending fantastically for them.

 

[PlayersLtd]

From watching most Belleville games since Christmas I find Boucher an interesting case. There is a very good skill set there in terms of his skating, shot, compete level and physicality. His positioning off the puck is decent as well. He is ok along the boards, he has hands and is a good passer in tight with enough poise and confidence to draw defenders in and make the right dish. The raw athleticism that he was drafted for is quite obvious imo.

However, at this point in his career it is not materializing into any significant impact shift in shift out. You want to notice him routinely for those skills but you just don't. It's not a disappearing act, it's just that nothing really strings together. There are flashes and decent overall play but nothing comes from it. You can't blame his line mates because he has been given opportunities up and down the lineup. Hockey IQ is lacking and likely the main culprit. He hasn't really gelled with any linemates yet and that's on him.

Here's the thing. Watching him play it looks to me like the've asked Boucher to focus on playing a responsible pro game and to not worry about offensive production. His shift lengths are short, he isn't cheating or being greedy and is playing a passable 200' game, he's actually quite good at applying back pressure and he is keeping his motor high. I think the SENS player development team know that the skill is there but that his path to the NHL will be as a responsible bottom 6 energy player and they are having him focus on that, stats be damned.

But I do think he is only one or two small degrees away from linking his skills and having a greater offensive impact with every shift. There is too much skill there not to, hockey iq just needs to catch up.

He has dropped in my books since I started focusing on him for the same reasons everyone is saying but if you look at him as the long term project he is, measure up the individual skills and believe that he is working on less flashy parts of the game I think there is still a lot to be hopeful about. His skating and motor are excellent, it's a baby steps situation for me with how he builds everything else on top of that to an NHL level.

He just turned 21. Everyone just needs to stretch out their timeline for him a bit, he was always touted as a project.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Ostapchuk is trending fantastically for them.

Guessing they are referring to Roger.

 

[BondraTime]

Guessing they are referring to Roger.

He isn’t looking like a cup of coffee type NHL career though, and isn’t even apart of the Sens, he is playing Canadian university hockey, can only assume he was referring to the 2 guys playing in the AHL

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

2020: Perfetti-69 games and counting. He's trending towards being a top 6 scoring forward.
2019: Podkolzin-118 games and counting. Might sustain a career as a bottom 6F (likely 4th line).
2018: Bouchard-184 games and counting. He's some type of top 4D, arguably top pair.
2017: Tippett-192 games and counting. Has taken some time, but he's now a 2nd liner.
2016: Jost-413 games and counting. He might sustain a career as a 4th liner. Won't be any more.
2015: Rantanen-490 games and counting. Occasionally you hit the jackpot.
2014: Ritchie-481 games and counting. Broke 30 points once (31). Solid bottom 6F, yet no more.
2013: Nichushkin-458 games and counting. He's become a first liner in his late 20's.
2012: Koekkoek-186 games. Never more than 42 games in a season.
2011: Brodin-741 games. Occasionally you hit the jackpot.
2010: McIlrath-72 games. I remember this one well. He was like an 8D. 7D as a stretch.
2009: Paajarvi-467 games as a forward. Broke 20 points once.
2008: Hodgson-328 game as a forward. Broke 40 points once.
2007: Ellerby-212 games. Never more than 54 in a season.
2006: Frolik-858 games. Productive NHL forward for a lot of years. Career high of 45 points.
2005: Bourdon-36 games. Players don't only bust. Sometimes tragic things occur (RIP).
2004: Valabik-80 games. Who?
2003: Kostitsyn-Could score a little bit (career high of 53 points), but only 398 games.
2002: Nystrom-593 games. Never more than 21 points (as a forward).
2001: Blackburn-63 games. I'm a Rangers fan, and don't know much about him.
2000: Yakubov-Who? 53 NHL games.

Of the 21 games picked from 2000 to 2020, which is the 10OA since 2000 before Boucher's draft, no one has hit 1000 games. There are 5 players who likely won't hit 100 games. Likely 10-11 of them hit 500 games. You have one star (Rantanen), and a few other very good players (Brodin, Nichushkin, Bouchard). Plenty of players who ended up anywhere ranging from middle 6F for a stretch to bottom 6 to 5 or 6 D or 4th line or 13F or 7D or a little worse. Some tragedy thrown into this group.

Fans overestimate what is realistic to expect out of a 10OA. If you get the career of Nick Ritchie out of Boucher, that's like the median outcome for a 10OA. Will he get there? Not clear, but he very well could. While you wouldn't hope for that out of a 10OA, you rarely hit the jackpot, whether 1OA or 10A or 100OA.

 

[wetcoast]

Ostapchuk is trending fantastically for them.

I'm from Vancouver and have seen him play quite a bit and like I said he might get a handful of NHL games on the 4th line because of his size but I'm not expecting alot there.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

He isn’t looking like a cup of coffee type NHL career though, and isn’t even apart of the Sens, he is playing Canadian university hockey, can only assume he was referring to the 2 guys playing in the AHL

Youre right, that was some lazy reading on my part.

Ostapchuk may not ever be a top 6 player but I’d be surprised if he doesnt run a solid bottom 6 line for a good while.

 

[BondraTime]

Youre right, that was some lazy reading on my part.

Ostapchuk may not ever be a top 6 player but I’d be surprised if he doesnt run a solid bottom 6 line for a good while.

He’s built for the bottom 6, and that’s what he was drafted and expected to be.

He’ll have a role on the Sens for a long time when he makes the jump up in the next year or so.

 

[wetcoast]

Guessing they are referring to Roger.

No but Roger was yet another big guy who was a bust.

Their 1st and 2nd rounders will be the only 2 from that draft to play in the AHL most likely.

 

[nbwingsfan]

if they’d picked anyone other than Wyatt Johnson it would have barely moved the needle over Boucher.
The guys picked after him have done next to nothing.

???
Sillinger has been an NHL player since being drafted.

Coronato is PPG in the AHL and has NHL time

Those are the next two picks.

Boucher on the other hand is playing like an ECHL player

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

???
Sillinger has been an NHL player since being drafted.

Coronato is PPG in the AHL and has NHL time

Those are the next two picks.

Boucher on the other hand is playing like an ECHL player

Way to weaken your point by showing a willingness to talk out of your ass.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Way to weaken your point by showing a willingness to talk out of your ass.

2g/5pts on the season.

Doing about as well as Eetu Liukas (who)

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

2g/5pts on the season.

Doing about as well as Eetu Liukas (who)

Oh, I didn't know you read 1/8th of an entire stat line. Clearly you are far more informed than I believed!

You haven't watched a second of Boucher's play. End of discussion.

 

[KevinRedkey]

The only one that seriously replicates what NHL teams think is McKenzie. He had him as a first rounder. Boucher went a lot earlier than suspected, but he was expected to be a first rounder and I suspect all NHL teams knew that a lot better than the public.

There’s always a public/private divide on some players where some small, weak skating high scoring junior players go lower than expected and bigger, more physical players with lower point totals go higher than expected.

McKenzie had him at 29th.
Here's a list of the past 10 players McKenzie had 29th, and where they were picked:
2014 - Conner Bleakley (1st - 23rd)
2015 - Jeremy Roy (2nd - 31st)
2016 - Boris Katchouk (2nd - 44th)
2017 - Erik Branstrom (1st - 15th)
2018 - Liam Foudy (1st - 18th)
2019 - Alex Vlasic (2nd - 43rd)
2020 - Tyson Foerster (1st - 23rd)
2021 - Tyler Boucher (1st - 10th)
2022 - Luca Del Bel Belluz (2nd - 44th)
2023 - Ethan Gauthier (2nd - 37th)

There's about a 50% chance a guy ranked that low actually gets picked in the 1st round. He was at best, a 1st/2nd tweener. Boucher is by far the biggest reach on the list, and was among the lowest ranked compared to other players in other rankings. Hell - maybe McKenzie asked Ottawa, and they had him so high it bumped him to a 1st rounder overall? Who knows...

Either way - the are no guarantees but It was a bad pick at the time, and it's aging like milk. You don't skip over that many players that early in the draft. Had the Sens picked another guy who is underperforming but was ranked within reason, it wouldn't look as bad. Logan Brown is a good example of that.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Oh, I didn't know you read 1/8th of an entire stat line. Clearly you are far more informed than I believed!

You haven't watched a second of Boucher's play. End of discussion.

Annti Tuomisto, a defenseman, has doubled his production in about the same amount of games and spent time in the ECHL.

But sure, Boucher is great!

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

McKenzie had him at 29th.
Here's a list of the past 10 players McKenzie had 29th, and where they were picked:
2014 - Conner Bleakley (1st - 23rd)
2015 - Jeremy Roy (2nd - 31st)
2016 - Boris Katchouk (2nd - 44th)
2017 - Erik Branstrom (1st - 15th)
2018 - Liam Foudy (1st - 18th)
2019 - Alex Vlasic (2nd - 43rd)
2020 - Tyson Foerster (1st - 23rd)
2021 - Tyler Boucher (1st - 10th)
2022 - Luca Del Bel Belluz (2nd - 44th)
2023 - Ethan Gauthier (2nd - 37th)

There's about a 50% chance a guy ranked that low actually gets picked in the 1st round. He was at best, a 1st/2nd tweener. Boucher is by far the biggest reach on the list, and was among the lowest ranked compared to other players in other rankings. Hell - maybe McKenzie asked Ottawa, and they had him so high it bumped him to a 1st rounder overall? Who knows...

Either way - the are no guarantees but It was a bad pick at the time, and it's aging like milk. You don't skip over that many players that early in the draft. Had the Sens picked another guy who is underperforming but was ranked within reason, it wouldn't look as bad. Logan Brown is a good example of that.

Your conclusion doesn't match with your analysis.

Obviously 29th is no guarantee of being a first round pick. McKenzie's list is a polling of scouts, not a literal simulation of the draft.

Also, I think the reality is that McKenzie hasn't been as plugged in the last few years. Definitely 2023 and probably 2022 also. Of the 8 players ranked there from 2014-2021, 6 of them were picked earlier or a few picks later (2 picks for Roy). Only two who were in the 40's were Katchouk and Vlasic (44 and 43).

I don't know how you can conclude that it means he wasn't projected as a first rounder. Bob's rankings are not foolproof, yet pretty solid and reliable. If the rankings say it, thats a good summarization of what NHL teams are thinking. Obviously it won't be the exact draft order. And yes, a later first has a higher chance to go in the second round, but there are 32 first round picks, and being ranked 29th doesn't make you a 1st/2nd round tweener. It makes you a first rounder.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Your conclusion doesn't match with your analysis.

Obviously 29th is no guarantee of being a first round pick. McKenzie's list is a polling of scouts, not a literal simulation of the draft.

Also, I think the reality is that McKenzie hasn't been as plugged in the last few years. Definitely 2023 and probably 2022 also. Of the 8 players ranked there from 2014-2021, 6 of them were picked earlier or a few picks later (2 picks for Roy). Only two who were in the 40's were Katchouk and Vlasic (44 and 43).

I don't know how you can conclude that it means he wasn't projected as a first rounder. Bob's rankings are not foolproof, yet pretty solid and reliable. If the rankings say it, thats a good summarization of what NHL teams are thinking. Obviously it won't be the exact draft order. And yes, a later first has a higher chance to go in the second round, but there are 32 first round picks, and being ranked 29th doesn't make you a 1st/2nd round tweener. It makes you a first rounder.

Almost every source had him outside the first round. The single one that did, had him going late in the first, where there's as good of a chance at going in the 1st as the 2nd.

Conclude what you like, but he went 10th and shouldn't have. The end.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Annti Tuomisto, a defenseman, has doubled his production in about the same amount of games and spent time in the ECHL.

But sure, Boucher is great!

Lol no one said hes great but hey, at least you are consistent with basing your arguments on literally nothing

 

[Rabid Ranger]

From watching most Belleville games since Christmas I find Boucher an interesting case. There is a very good skill set there in terms of his skating, shot, compete level and physicality. His positioning off the puck is decent as well. He is ok along the boards, he has hands and is a good passer in tight with enough poise and confidence to draw defenders in and make the right dish. The raw athleticism that he was drafted for is quite obvious imo.

However, at this point in his career it is not materializing into any significant impact shift in shift out. You want to notice him routinely for those skills but you just don't. It's not a disappearing act, it's just that nothing really strings together. There are flashes and decent overall play but nothing comes from it. You can't blame his line mates because he has been given opportunities up and down the lineup. Hockey IQ is lacking and likely the main culprit. He hasn't really gelled with any linemates yet and that's on him.

Here's the thing. Watching him play it looks to me like the've asked Boucher to focus on playing a responsible pro game and to not worry about offensive production. His shift lengths are short, he isn't cheating or being greedy and is playing a passable 200' game, he's actually quite good at applying back pressure and he is keeping his motor high. I think the SENS player development team know that the skill is there but that his path to the NHL will be as a responsible bottom 6 energy player and they are having him focus on that, stats be damned.

But I do think he is only one or two small degrees away from linking his skills and having a greater offensive impact with every shift. There is too much skill there not to, hockey iq just needs to catch up.

He has dropped in my books since I started focusing on him for the same reasons everyone is saying but if you look at him as the long term project he is, measure up the individual skills and believe that he is working on less flashy parts of the game I think there is still a lot to be hopeful about. His skating and motor are excellent, it's a baby steps situation for me with how he builds everything else on top of that to an NHL level.

He just turned 21. Everyone just needs to stretch out their timeline for him a bit, he was always touted as a project.

This site needs more posts like this.

 

[Hale The Villain]

He was going to go 1st round. Was a weak draft and teams do stupid things for physicality/toughness.

If he went late 1st the team who picked him wouldn't be too disappointed in his development given his awful injury history.

If he stops getting injured consistently he'll probably carve out a career as a 4th line banger. Think a Deslauriers/Hathaway type.

The issue has always been that he should have never went anywhere close to 10th. One of the worst picks in a long time for that reason.