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RW Tyler Boucher - Belleville Senators, AHL (2021, 10th, OTT)

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GTA said:
When I watch him play I think a PPG is extremely ambitious. He looks like he is struggling to make even basic reads and doesn’t seem to make many intelligent decisions with the puck at the junior level. Will need a lot of improvement to be considered even a good player in that league.
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I am not a fan of the Boucher pick at all and think it is extremely unlikely he turns into what sens management hopes he becomes.

With that said I’m having a hard time believing you are actually watching 67s games if that’s your takeaway. I’ve been to the last few home games and he has been been looking more comfortable as the games progress, is flying around and making impact plays. Both goals he had in the game this past weekend I think show that he has decent sense and can get into scoring areas.

Obviously not playing at the level you’d like to see from a 10th overall but some of these comments just feeling like piling on and kicking a guy while he’s down.
 
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the Raffi Torres comparison someone made seems like a good one to me.
 
DrSense said:
It hasn't be a great season for Boucher, especially after playing so little last year, but it is nice to see him start to assert himself in the OHL. As was said in this thread already, I think it is fair to give him 15-20 games before really looking at how he fits. Especially with him only have played 30 games in the last 2 years.

The other thing is, you have to be patient with big physical kids.

I made the Wheeler and Crouse comparisons previously, but Wheeler in particular was seen as one of the biggest reaches of all time in 2004, when he went 5th overall and many thought he wouldn't even be a 1st round pick. Many people on these boards back thgen thought it the biggest joke in draft history to take him ahead of highly touted top 10 guys like Olesz, Tukonen and Picard.

Wheeler wasn't even in the USHL yet, went there the next year and scored less than a PPG in a league that was much lower in quality than the USHL today (so the same age as Boucher is now at a D+1 he was in the USHL). He then spent three years in the NCAA, where he never averaged a PPG. He spent the next 4 years as a solid middle 6 forward in Boston and then Atlanta before landing in Winnipeg, where he has become a 1st line player.

Now, I don't think Boucher will be a 1st line forward, but I also won't be surprised if he develops into a solid 20-20 guy who is a physical role player in the Sens top 6. Or maybe he'll be an elite 3rd liner. Or maybe he'll score 30. Admittedly, there are big skilled kids who DIDN'T develop like Wheeler, Crouse and Wilson, so hardly inferring Boucher is a sure thing.

My main concern with Boucher is not rushing him. I think he should play at least one more year in the OHL, and only then consider going pro. Scouts and his coaches have gushed about his skill level (his USTP team mates voted him most dangerous forward), but he has not figured out how to apply these skills yet. And even an overage year wouldn't be a huge deal. Wheeler spent 4 seasons developing his raw skills before turning pro. Crouse went a bit too early, and is only now becoming a reasonably productive player at the age of 24.
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It is true that big guys take a long time (I would not consider Boucher a big guy tho, but thats not the point of my post), and for that precise reason it is dumb to pick them early.

Notice that most of these big guys who take a long time do not flourish with the team that drafted them. There is a very simple answer for that: they become waiver eligible before being good enough to stick in the main roster.

Its ridiculous to select a player thinking that he may be good 6 years down the line, because chances are you will lose control over that player before that. Look at Michael McCarron for example, so many fans in Montreal said that he could become a very effective 4th line C a la Brian Boyle at 26 yo. He seems to be slowly becoming an NHL player, but Montreal lost control over him a long time ago.
 
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ginomini said:
It is true that big guys take a long time (I would not consider Boucher a big guy tho, but thats not the point of my post), and for that precise reason it is dumb to pick them early.

Notice that most of these big guys who take a long time do not flourish with the team that drafted them. There is a very simple answer for that: they become waiver eligible before being good enough to stick in the main roster.

Its ridiculous to select a player thinking that he may be good 6 years down the line, because chances are you will lose control over that player before that. Look at Michael McCarron for example, so many fans in Montreal said that he could become a very effective 4th line C a la Brian Boyle at 26 yo. He seems to be slowly becoming an NHL player, but Montreal lost control over him a long time ago.
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There's a decent amount of big gritty players that had bad production at lower levels that have managed to succeed in the NHL:

McCarron, Anderson, Hathaway, Marchment, Jeannot, Goodrow, Kuraly, Robinson, Duhaime, Lorentz, Deslauriers, Reaves

But most of those players are bigger than Boucher, who's only listed at 6'1, 205lbs. That's pretty close to average size for an NHL forward.

He's not going to be able to physically dominate players in the NHL like he can in junior. I'd be more bullish on him if he were 6'3-6'4.
 
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What were his strong suits his draft year? He seems like a less gritty, less skilled version of Greig. Yeah, he has the size on him and you can’t compare draft classes to classes, but I would have much preferred to draft Greig 10th overall even without hindsight of his success this year.

I guess if you close your eyes and pretend you drafted Greig 10th overall and Boucher 28th it eases the pain a bit.

IMO if it wasn’t Sillinger, Cossa or Wallstedt was my pick here.

Lots of time, hope Boucher proves me wrong.
 
MS said:
Torres was a dominant junior player who once scored 27 NHL goals.

To me Nicolas Deslauriers is probably a very close comparable who would represent a pretty good outcome at this point.
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didnt say clone. Just play styles.
 
Akrapovince said:
What were his strong suits his draft year? He seems like a less gritty, less skilled version of Greig. Yeah, he has the size on him and you can’t compare draft classes to classes, but I would have much preferred to draft Greig 10th overall even without hindsight of his success this year.

I guess if you close your eyes and pretend you drafted Greig 10th overall and Boucher 28th it eases the pain a bit.

IMO if it wasn’t Sillinger, Cossa or Wallstedt was my pick here.

Lots of time, hope Boucher proves me wrong.
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He's nothing like Greig, other than that they both play with an edge.
 
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ginomini said:
It is true that big guys take a long time (I would not consider Boucher a big guy tho, but thats not the point of my post), and for that precise reason it is dumb to pick them early.

Notice that most of these big guys who take a long time do not flourish with the team that drafted them. There is a very simple answer for that: they become waiver eligible before being good enough to stick in the main roster.

Its ridiculous to select a player thinking that he may be good 6 years down the line, because chances are you will lose control over that player before that. Look at Michael McCarron for example, so many fans in Montreal said that he could become a very effective 4th line C a la Brian Boyle at 26 yo. He seems to be slowly becoming an NHL player, but Montreal lost control over him a long time ago.
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None of the players mentioned became waiver eligible and never held back the team they were on. They didn't get rushed, but they didn't stagnate either. They were also good value compared to the smaller skilled guys taken around the same time in round 1. There is no perfect formula. In general, I kind of agree to opt for skill in the 1st, but seeing smaller guys like Point, Kucherov, DeBrinkat picked after round 1 shows that you can get skill there too.
 
SimGrindcore said:
Boucher should have been a 3rd rounder. The 2021 draft was awful for Ottawa. Ostapchuk and Ben Roger were big reaches in the 2nd round.
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Boucher and Roger I agree with. Ostapchuk however went right where he was supposed to.
 
GermanSpitfire said:
Boucher and Roger I agree with. Ostapchuk however went right where he was supposed to.
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In a vacuum sure but just because the other 2 picks were reaches doesn't mean that Ostapchuk wasn't one either.

I have watched him quite a bit as I live in Vancouver and he simply looks like a guy who isn't going to make it.
 
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