RW Tyler Boucher - Belleville Senators, AHL (2021, 10th, OTT)

[SpezDispenser]

We'll see how he does in the playoffs first, then we'll have to see how he does next year in the ohl, then we'll have to see how he does under Mann in Bellville, then another year in Bellville.

It hasn't been an optimum start, but this kind of player takes time and patience.

That said, it was a mystifying pick. It really was.

 

[bert]

I meant that Lucic's draft year stats were not good (19 points in 62 WHL games), and his D+1 year was also not that good (68 points in 70 WHL games)...most people with those types of stats don't end up like Lucic, they end up in the AHL/ECHL. Wilson was over PPG in his D+1 year, and Neil was close to PPG - Boucher isn't really close right now.

Also I've watched tons of games where players looked good at the junior level and they never made it, but they all produced at the junior level. People are just saying it's not likely he's going to make it based on this fact and they're not wrong.

Deciding on a players final outcome at 18 years old based on a 24 game sample size in which he has moved cities, countries, teams, coach's and systems while playing on a bad team is your call man. I won't subscribe to such an internet hockey scout narrative. Having played the sport at a high enough level and understanding these are teenagers and that injuries actually do effect players play i will take a different approach. I will in fact apply the eye test, where I watch and view the player and identify some elite traits. He has like an explosive first few steps and can change the momentum of a game with a hit. He has an NHL release and a good motor when he gets comfortable. He won't be a top 6 player and for a top 10 pick thats disappointing. But he will be an effective bottom 6er, as other posters have stated he will have a full year on a much better 67s team mext year. Followed by 2 more in Belleville. Anyone that simply rights him off completely at this point because he didn't score 10 more points I don't have time for.

 

[super6646]

So not only do you only stat watch you don't understand development either. You need a new hobby. If you think switching countries, billets, systems and leagues while battling injuries is simple then you have very little understanding of the sport. You also don't seem to grasp development curves being different for different types of players. As someone that we know won't actually watch the player why don't you give him one full year next season on a team that isnt the youngest in the OHL. On top of never watching the player or understanding that he has an NHL shot is a terrific skater and one of the most physical prospects in this years draft you continue to post. You're exactly why this site is a giant waste of time for people that want to have an intelligent discussion.

I could say the exact same point with personal ad hominems over what is an objective talking point. The fact that you need to engage this tells me you aren’t unbias here.

You bring up lucic, again around the ppg mark in his d+1. And that was in the WHL which is lower scoring. I cannot think of many nhl players who produced 0.5 ppg in their draft year at the junior level and even became reliable bottom 6 talent. Ladd had 45 pts in 65 games is the only one that comes close off the top of my head, and yes he was good, but that’s one player.

If he’s putting up 100 pts in juniors next year, he’s a salvageable prospect. If he’s still struggling around the ppg mark in his d+2, I can’t see a realistic shot at nhl potential. But hey, nothing wrong with being wrong either.

 

[God]

Deciding on a players final outcome at 18 years old based on a 24 game sample size in which he has moved cities, countries, teams, coach's and systems while playing on a bad team is your call man. I won't subscribe to such an internet hockey scout narrative. Having played the sport at a high enough level and understanding these are teenagers and that injuries actually do effect players play i will take a different approach. I will in fact apply the eye test, where I watch and view the player and identify some elite traits. He has like an explosive first few steps and can change the momentum of a game with a hit. He has an NHL release and a good motor when he gets comfortable. He won't be a top 6 player and for a top 10 pick thats disappointing. But he will be an effective bottom 6er, as other posters have stated he will have a full year on a much better 67s team mext year. Followed by 2 more in Belleville. Anyone that simply rights him off completely at this point because he didn't score 10 more points I don't have time for.

Maybe it will surprise you to learn that most bottom 6 players in the NHL were high level point producers in their respective junior leagues as well?

10 years ago we were having this conversation with Leafs fans about Tyler Biggs. Nothing has changed since then. Nobody is saying he'll never make it as an NHL player, they're pointing out how unlikely it is that he will. And if he does, it would be an outlier against typical career trajectories.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

There are so many players who score a lot of junior points but don’t play in the NHL because their skillset doesn’t translate well to the NHL. There are also plenty who see their statistical numbers in lower leagues translate very similarly to the much better NHL because of how they play their game.

Boucher will play NHL games, at minimum, due to draft position. He’s a safe bet to play a regular role due to play style. To be a good NHL player, you are asking for 30-40 points. Look at the list of guys right in that range and their offensive numbers. Plenty who didn’t progress on the offensive path people expect of players.

Also, if stats matter now, why don’t they last season? Last season he had 14 points in 14 games. Higher PPG than Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes, Dylan Duke, Sean Behrens. Does that matter or it only matters this season? Besides, if his stats matter so much, why not look to his underlying numbers which paint a different picture or even some smaller stretches? He’s been playing pretty okay for a good while now. Seems like some just won’t take that, as long as they don’t see a ratio of at least 1/1 in the GP/Points column for the season.

I guess the point is that anyone who looks at his EP page for this season and thinks they can figure out the full equation of a very unconventional hockey player whose had a very unconventional season is setting themselves up for a laughable take eventually. No one claimed he’s had a great season or he’s the 10th best prospect from his draft. All that’s irrelevant when you’ve declared his career over or close to it because you don’t like his stats on his EP page for one season.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

There are so many players who score a lot of junior points but don’t play in the NHL because their skillset doesn’t translate well to the NHL. There are also plenty who see their statistical numbers in lower leagues translate very similarly to the much better NHL because of how they play their game.

Boucher will play NHL games, at minimum, due to draft position. He’s a safe bet to play a regular role due to play style. To be a good NHL player, you are asking for 30-40 points. Look at the list of guys right in that range and their offensive numbers. Plenty who didn’t progress on the offensive path people expect of players.

Also, if stats matter now, why don’t they last season? Last season he had 14 points in 14 games. Higher PPG than Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes, Dylan Duke, Sean Behrens. Does that matter or it only matters this season? Besides, if his stats matter so much, why not look to his underlying numbers which paint a different picture or even some smaller stretches?

I guess the point is that anyone who looks at his EP page for this season and thinks they can figure out the full equation of a very unconventional hockey player whose had a very unconventional season is setting themselves up for a laughable take eventually. No one claimed he’s had a great season or he’s the 10th best prospect from his draft. All that’s irrelevant when you’ve declared his career over or close to it because you don’t like his stats on his EP page for one season.

Yeah, his stats have been bad, his play inconsistent, and the pick was terrible "value", but its pretty clear when you watch him that he has lots of good NHL tools. Your projection is optimistic for sure but no more outlandish than people saying he's unlikely to have an NHL career.

 

[bert]

I could say the exact same point with personal ad hominems over what is an objective talking point. The fact that you need to engage this tells me you aren’t unbias here.

You bring up lucic, again around the ppg mark in his d+1. And that was in the WHL which is lower scoring. I cannot think of many nhl players who produced 0.5 ppg in their draft year at the junior level and even became reliable bottom 6 talent. Ladd had 45 pts in 65 games is the only one that comes close off the top of my head, and yes he was good, but that’s one player.

If he’s putting up 100 pts in juniors next year, he’s a salvageable prospect. If he’s still struggling around the ppg mark in his d+2, I can’t see a realistic shot at nhl potential. But hey, nothing wrong with being wrong either.

I didnt bring up Lucic and Boucher didnt produce at a .5 clip. Again if you think its only about jr production and how that projects at the next level have at it. That simply not how scouting works, thats why people actually go to the games and watch the players. I also literally said in my post I dont expect him to be a top 6 player. You seem solely focused on that, there are hundreds of accounts of great bottom 6 players that dont score at a ppg clip in their 18 year old season.

 

[Hale The Villain]

He'll carve out a career as a Hathaway-type gritty bottom 6er, but the idea that he is or was ever a top 6 forward in the making always seemed like a stretch to me.

 

[bert]

Maybe it will surprise you to learn that most bottom 6 players in the NHL were high level point producers in their respective junior leagues as well?

10 years ago we were having this conversation with Leafs fans about Tyler Biggs. Nothing has changed since then. Nobody is saying he'll never make it as an NHL player, they're pointing out how unlikely it is that he will. And if he does, it would be an outlier against typical career trajectories.

I do have the ability to look at hockey DB you have showed some excellent acumen in this activity as well. Yes some depth players were major point produces but many weren't either. Its an outlier that a player has a down year production wise after experiencing a change of teams and a slew of injuries?.... What? Did you read a single word in my post? How about you simply watch one hockey game Boucher plays and then come back to this thread. Its asinine to suggest a player has no future in the league with the tools he has because he didnt get enough 2nd assists for you to be happy with his performance after not watching him play a game.

 

[God]

I do have the ability to look at hockey DB you have showed some excellent acumen in this activity as well. Yes some depth players were major point produces but many weren't either. Its an outlier that a player has a down year production wise after experiencing a change of teams and a slew of injuries?.... What? Did you read a single word in my post? How about you simply watch one hockey game Boucher plays and then come back to this thread. Its asinine to suggest a player has no future in the league with the tools he has because he didnt get enough 2nd assists for you to be happy with his performance after not watching him play a game.

Maybe it will surprise you to learn that most bottom 6 players in the NHL were high level point producers in their respective junior leagues as well?

10 years ago we were having this conversation with Leafs fans about Tyler Biggs. Nothing has changed since then. Nobody is saying he'll never make it as an NHL player, they're pointing out how unlikely it is that he will. And if he does, it would be an outlier against typical career trajectories.

.

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

It's normal given that this forum is literally called Hockey's Future, but I think with Boucher (and some other prospects) we're seeing an overvaluation of the kind of player you get at 10th overall.

Based on this Scott Cullen analysis, a forward picked 10th overall has a roughly 13% chance of becoming a top 6 player, and a 65+% chance of becoming a 4th line player or worse. Obviously you can quibble about the methods and definitions he used, but there are a number of analyses out there that show pretty much the same thing; outside of the top 5, the odds of drafting a true impact player drop off dramatically. "As early as No. 6, there’s at least a one-in-three chance of a drafted player being no more than a fourth-liner or fringe NHLer."*

Interestingly, picks 11-14 have had more success than 10, at least in the 1990-2013 drafts based on Cullen's method. Still, even those more successful picks are more likely than not nothing special.

Whatever player you think Ottawa should have drafted instead of Boucher, the odds would still be against him to turn into more than a third liner. Boucher making the NHL and becoming an energy bottom-sixer is exactly what you would expect from the 10th overall pick, statistically speaking. I think his shot, skating and size will get him there, even if it's nothing more.

Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Value - TSN.ca

For quite some time Scott Cullen has estimated NHL draft pick value, examining the percentages as they pertain to the caliber of player selected in each slot. Here is his latest update, covering the drafts from 1990 through 2013.

stg.tsn.9c9media.ca

 

[Bonin21]

a forward picked 10th overall has a roughly 13% chance of becoming a top 6 player, and a 65+% chance of becoming a bottom 6 player or worse[/URL]

It's 65%+ of 4th line or worse per the table headers. So that would be 22% chance of third line.

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

It's 65%+ of 4th line or worse per the table headers. So that would be 22% chance of third line.

You're right, thanks for catching that! Edited my post.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Deciding on a players final outcome at 18 years old based on a 24 game sample size in which he has moved cities, countries, teams, coach's and systems while playing on a bad team is your call man. I won't subscribe to such an internet hockey scout narrative. Having played the sport at a high enough level and understanding these are teenagers and that injuries actually do effect players play i will take a different approach. I will in fact apply the eye test, where I watch and view the player and identify some elite traits. He has like an explosive first few steps and can change the momentum of a game with a hit. He has an NHL release and a good motor when he gets comfortable. He won't be a top 6 player and for a top 10 pick thats disappointing. But he will be an effective bottom 6er, as other posters have stated he will have a full year on a much better 67s team mext year. Followed by 2 more in Belleville. Anyone that simply rights him off completely at this point because he didn't score 10 more points I don't have time for.

I’d say it’s more about probabilities. Guys who can’t produce at the OHL level are far less likely to do so later at the NHL level

 

[Korpse]

For me :

Boucher Round 2
Ostapchuk Round 7
Roger Undrafted

There were 192 draft eligible players who liked more than Ostaphchuk and 224 you liked more than Roger. I'm actually really impressed that there's someone who thinks they know enough about that many players to be comfortable with that assessment.

 

[newfy]

No he definitely didnt, Boucher was a dissapointing pick as a sens fan but some of the takes in here are very strange. It was a reach and there were better options. But that doesnt mean he wont be an effective NHL player. If he was picked in the late first round or second no one is freaking out like this. You articulated the type of player he is well, I dont think the poster you quoted had any idea, very rarely is physical play considered a positive on HF boards. However thats not how it works in real hockey as we all know. Ottawa is going to take their time with him, he likely does contribute at some point but not in a top 6 role.

If he was a late first he would be getting shit on too. First round picks who have to change teams mid season and have done what hes done offensively this year always get shit on.

Go read the old Tyler Biggs threads. They actually read a lot like this one. Fans of the team that drafted him saying he has NHL tools and passes the eye test, when in reality, if youre not productive at that level you likely dont actualy have that many NHL quality tools. Obviously he could still be an NHL player, but its a really, really bad start.

 

[super6646]

I didnt bring up Lucic and Boucher didnt produce at a .5 clip. Again if you think its only about jr production and how that projects at the next level have at it. That simply not how scouting works, thats why people actually go to the games and watch the players. I also literally said in my post I dont expect him to be a top 6 player. You seem solely focused on that, there are hundreds of accounts of great bottom 6 players that dont score at a ppg clip in their 18 year old season.

I agree production isn't the be all end all. A 1.3 ppg player in juniors could be more NHL ready than a 1.5 ppg player because they are more physically developed for example.

And yes, lots of bottom 6ers didn't produce in their 18 yr old season. Those players generally did not get drafted high, and most bottom 6 talent do produce at least somewhat well by their d+1 season.

Just looking at NHL rosters of perennial bottom 6 players randomly, but Jason dickinson was well over a ppg in his d+1 season, Brad Richardson was over a ppg, Casie Cizikas was around a ppg, Cal Clutterbuck was well over a ppg, Chris Thornburn was a bit over 0.8 ppg, Brett Ritchie was around a ppg, Fischer well over a ppg, Roussel about the same as Boucher (but he was undrafted), Nick Cousins well over a ppg, Clifford a ppg, Nick Ritchie was over a ppg (and funny enough, another 10th overall pick overdrafted), Carrick was about the same as Boucher, Matt Martin was over a ppg, Deslauriers was 0.69 ppg, Nate Thompson about the same as Boucher.

Random players I chose, but he was on the lower end. Some of these guys are a lot more physically imposing as well.

 

[Uncle]

Playing against my Battalion in playoffs. He definitely one of Ottawa better players but that isn’t saying much. Draft position back player is quite ugly right now but I will say for a guy his size he does skate very well. Which helps. There is definitely some rat to his game.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

There were 192 draft eligible players who liked more than Ostaphchuk and 224 you liked more than Roger. I'm actually really impressed that there's someone who thinks they know enough about that many players to be comfortable with that assessment.

This is indeed what I thought last year and the facts (2021-2022 season) give me more reason than the Ottawa recruiting team.

You can see my 2021 ranking here : NHL Draft 2021 My Board

Cole SIllinger (rather than Tyler Boucher), Aatu Raty (rather than Zack Ostapchuk) et Sasha Pastujov (rather than Ben Roger) would have been my three selections. I'm very comfortable with this assessment.

 

[bert]

This is indeed what I thought last year and the facts (2021-2022 season) give me more reason than the Ottawa recruiting team.

You can see my 2021 ranking here : NHL Draft 2021 My Board

Cole SIllinger (rather than Tyler Boucher), Aatu Raty (rather than Zack Ostapchuk) et Sasha Pastujov (rather than Ben Roger) would have been my three selections. I'm very comfortable with this assessment.

I dont think there is any debate the sens absolutely blew this draft. That was the consensus from day 1. They have over done building a specific culture. Its good for internal competition and developing bottom 6 guys but they have little in the way of prospects with top 6 potential in the system right now. Even in the super deep 2020 draft they made some strange selections after the first round.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

This is indeed what I thought last year and the facts (2021-2022 season) give me more reason than the Ottawa recruiting team.

You can see my 2021 ranking here : NHL Draft 2021 My Board

Cole SIllinger (rather than Tyler Boucher), Aatu Raty (rather than Zack Ostapchuk) et Sasha Pastujov (rather than Ben Roger) would have been my three selections. I'm very comfortable with this assessment.

I could make a ranking of the 1000 best foods, doesn't mean I've tasted all of them.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

I could make a ranking of the 1000 best foods, doesn't mean I've tasted all of them.

I do serious research throughout the year with a lot of thought.

I learn but with time I improve.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I do serious research throughout the year with a lot of thought.

I learn but with time I improve.

I am sure you do, but listing and ranking 200+ players independently invalidates any credibility your efforts create. There is just no way you could effectively evaluate & compare that many players, especially given the constraints COVID created.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

I am sure you do, but listing and ranking 200+ players independently invalidates any credibility your efforts create. There is just no way you could effectively evaluate & compare that many players, especially given the constraints COVID created.

It was difficult last year. Now looking back, I find my ranking less stupid than the order of the 2021 NHL draft.

Over the years, I have developed a method that seems to work well.

I think that when you haven't seen enough of a player at a high level of competition, you shouldn't hesitate to put him aside.

What I blame Ottawa for last year was betting blindly on guys who played very little for different reasons to the detriment of known guys.

I'm sure I've seen more official games from Sillinger, Raty and Pastujov than Ottawa Scouts have seen official games from Boucher, Ostapchuk and Roger in 2021/22. It is even a mathematical evidence.

 

[Eggtimer]

This pick reminds me of my Devils pick of Stillman… Very similar in that both of the teams made their picks over rating these two because of their size and or grit / motor / playing with an edge. Both have disappointed but both could still possibly improve. However historically , player with this kind of production in Jr.’s don’t end up amounting to much if anything