RW Tyler Boucher - Belleville Senators, AHL (2021, 10th, OTT)

[NewEraGM]

Dorion going to Dorion…AWFUL pick. Might play eventually but considering the talent that was still on the board wow. Just wow

 

[DrSense]

It hasn't be a great season for Boucher, especially after playing so little last year, but it is nice to see him start to assert himself in the OHL. As was said in this thread already, I think it is fair to give him 15-20 games before really looking at how he fits. Especially with him only have played 30 games in the last 2 years.

The other thing is, you have to be patient with big physical kids.

I made the Wheeler and Crouse comparisons previously, but Wheeler in particular was seen as one of the biggest reaches of all time in 2004, when he went 5th overall and many thought he wouldn't even be a 1st round pick. Many people on these boards back thgen thought it the biggest joke in draft history to take him ahead of highly touted top 10 guys like Olesz, Tukonen and Picard.

Wheeler wasn't even in the USHL yet, went there the next year and scored less than a PPG in a league that was much lower in quality than the USHL today (so the same age as Boucher is now at a D+1 he was in the USHL). He then spent three years in the NCAA, where he never averaged a PPG. He spent the next 4 years as a solid middle 6 forward in Boston and then Atlanta before landing in Winnipeg, where he has become a 1st line player.

Now, I don't think Boucher will be a 1st line forward, but I also won't be surprised if he develops into a solid 20-20 guy who is a physical role player in the Sens top 6. Or maybe he'll be an elite 3rd liner. Or maybe he'll score 30. Admittedly, there are big skilled kids who DIDN'T develop like Wheeler, Crouse and Wilson, so hardly inferring Boucher is a sure thing.

My main concern with Boucher is not rushing him. I think he should play at least one more year in the OHL, and only then consider going pro. Scouts and his coaches have gushed about his skill level (his USTP team mates voted him most dangerous forward), but he has not figured out how to apply these skills yet. And even an overage year wouldn't be a huge deal. Wheeler spent 4 seasons developing his raw skills before turning pro. Crouse went a bit too early, and is only now becoming a reasonably productive player at the age of 24.

 

[DueDiligence]

All busts are not equal.

If you consider them darts at a dartboard, most busts are still hitting the outside of the board, and are close to NHL players and looked promising for a time.

Boucher is, like, in the ceiling. If you did a re-draft 6 months after the draft, he probably wouldn't go top-100. That is unheard-of, and doesn't apply to any of the other examples you're giving.

Keep doubling down, especially when you wrong.

 

[DueDiligence]

double post

 

[DueDiligence]

Dorion going to Dorion…AWFUL pick. Might play eventually but considering the talent that was still on the board wow. Just wow

Certainly not as bad as Jesperi Kotkaniemi

 

[Sticktape]

 

[Sens Vader]

I dont know what he's gonna be but if you turn on 67's games he's incredibly fun to watch

Seeing him run around and truck guys over is satisfying enough

 

[ponder]

Sens scouts probably see him as a Tom Wilson clone; which is funny because they both had very underwhelming junior careers stats wise.
Not saying Boucher will become a solid player like Wilson, but the similarities are evident.

But Tom Wilson is 6’4”, Boucher 6’1”. Tom Wilson wouldn’t be Tom Wilson if he was 6’1”, his game/effectiveness is predicated on being huge.

Also, Wilson had a much better D+1 than Boucher is having.

I think if Boucher makes it as an NHLer, he’ll be more of a Clutterbuck type.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

But Tom Wilson is 6’4”, Boucher 6’1”. Tom Wilson wouldn’t be Tom Wilson if he was 6’1”, his game/effectiveness is predicated on being huge.

Also, Wilson had a much better D+1 than Boucher is having.

I think if Boucher makes it as an NHLer, he’ll be more of a Clutterbuck type.

I would argue that those extra 3 inches aren't what make Wilson who he is. Actually, I would even go on to say that being 6'1 would be better than 6'4+ when playing a physical checking game. Tighter center of gravity, better agility and more ferocious impact considering the surface area.

Also when comparing their stats; it's important to note that even if Wilson had better numbers/impact, he did not miss an extensive amount of games like Boucher, nor did he have to deal with covid.

 

[ponder]

I would argue that those extra 3 inches aren't what make Wilson who he is. Actually, I would even go on to say that being 6'1 would be better than 6'4+ when playing a physical checking game. Tighter center of gravity, better agility and more ferocious impact considering the surface area.

Also when comparing their stats; it's important to note that even if Wilson had better numbers/impact, he did not miss an extensive amount of games like Boucher, nor did he have to deal with covid.

Strongly disagree, Wilson would be far less effective if he was 3” shorter. His game is being a physically dominant force, who just overpowers basically everyone, even at the NHL level. Guys like Wilson (or Lucic, Byfuglien, Chara, Getzlaf, Nurse, etc.), it’s not just about the hits, it’s about overpowering guys and winning battles in every situation, and it’s hugely helpful to have a big size advantage when playing that game.

There are GREAT hitters who are around 6’-6’1” (like Clutterbuck!), but they aren’t “physically dominate and control the puck in all situations” types like Wilson.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Strongly disagree, Wilson would be far less effective if he was 3” shorter. His game is being a physically dominant force, who just overpowers basically everyone, even at the NHL level. Guys like Wilson (or Lucic, Byfuglien, Chara, Getzlaf, Nurse, etc.), it’s not just about the hits, it’s about overpowering guys and winning battles in every situation, and it’s hugely helpful to have a big size advantage when playing that game.

There are GREAT hitters who are around 6’-6’1” (like Clutterbuck!), but they aren’t “physically dominate and control the puck in all situations” types like Wilson.

Those characteristics make Wilson (along with the rest you listed) a "unicorn". Usually the taller a player the more likely it is that they are either slow or awkward when skating which would diminish from their capability of finishing checks. There are much more successful physical players in the NHL who are in the 6-6'2 height range vs. the monsters you listed.

Yes, being taller allows them to to box guys out, but that's not really Boucher's game. Boucher looks to be similar to a guy like Dustin Brown but with the abrasiveness of a Wilson.

 

[ponder]

Those characteristics make Wilson (along with the rest you listed) a "unicorn". Usually the taller a player the more likely it is that they are either slow or awkward when skating which would diminish from their capability of finishing checks. There are much more successful physical players in the NHL who are in the 6-6'2 height range vs. the monsters you listed.

Yes, being taller allows them to to box guys out, but that's not really Boucher's game. Boucher looks to be similar to a guy like Dustin Brown but with the abrasiveness of a Wilson.

Yeah, Brown is a better comp, though Brown was very far ahead of Boucher at the same age, much more skilled and effective offensively. I agree that Wilson is a “unicorn”, which is why I don’t think he’s a good comp for Boucher - Boucher isn’t going to be able to dominate physically in all situations like Wilson does, at the NHL level.

Clutterbuck, Carrier, Deslauriers, I think Boucher could turn out somewhere along those lines, if he pans out. Very physical, big time hitter, with the hockey skills to be a decent 3rd/4th liner.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Yeah, Brown is a better comp, though Brown was very far ahead of Boucher at the same age, much more skilled and effective offensively. I agree that Wilson is a “unicorn”, which is why I don’t think he’s a good comp for Boucher - Boucher isn’t going to be able to dominate physically in all situations like Wilson does, at the NHL level.

Clutterbuck, Carrier, Deslauriers, I think Boucher could turn out somewhere along those lines, if he pans out. Very physical, big time hitter, with the hockey skills to be a decent 3rd/4th liner.

I think he has more skill than the three players you listed, but admittedly his current stats don't correspond with that. Then again, you got to take into account the circumstances surrounding that. I don't want to make excuses because plenty of these players had to deal with similar issues.

Ultimately, Boucher needs to play at a 1.5-2 PPG pace next season in the O to show proof of that skill. I think he's capable of that.

 

[ponder]

I think he has more skill than the three players you listed, but admittedly his current stats don't correspond with that. Then again, you got to take into account the circumstances surrounding that. I don't want to make excuses because plenty of these players had to deal with similar issues.

Ultimately, Boucher needs to play at a 1.5-2 PPG pace next season in the O to show proof of that skill. I think he's capable of that.

I do agree that it's a small sample size for Boucher this year, and getting COVID doesn't help. Boucher does show flashes of NHL level tools, but I have trouble seeing him being a higher end offensive talent at the NHL level. Doubt he puts up 1.5-2 PPG in the OHL next season, and IMO Clutterbuck, Carrier or Deslauriers would be a solid outcome for him, but only time will tell!

Also, worth pointing out that this isn't true:

There are much more successful physical players in the NHL who are in the 6-6'2 height range vs. the monsters you listed.

26% of NHL skaters are 6'3"+, but 50% of the top 30 in hits this season (and most seasons) are 6'3"+. Or if you stretch that to the top 100 in hits, 43% are 6'3"+. Big dudes are over-represented among top hitters, not under-represented. Of course there are great hitters who are more average size (and Boucher will be one, if he makes it as an NHLer), but there's a strong positive correlation between height and hitting. It's easier to crush dudes when you have the size advantage, and it matters a lot more than a low centre of gravity.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

I do agree that it's a small sample size for Boucher this year, and getting COVID doesn't help. Boucher does show flashes of NHL level tools, but I have trouble seeing him being a higher end offensive talent at the NHL level. Doubt he puts up 1.5-2 PPG in the OHL next season, and IMO Clutterbuck, Carrier or Deslauriers would be a solid outcome for him, but only time will tell!

Also, worth pointing out that this isn't true:


26% of NHL skaters are 6'3"+, but 50% of the top 30 in hits this season (and most seasons) are 6'3"+. Or if you stretch that to the top 100 in hits, 43% are 6'3"+. Big dudes are over-represented among top hitters, not under-represented. Of course there are great hitters who are more average size (and Boucher will be one, if he makes it as an NHLer), but there's a strong positive correlation between height and hitting. It's easier to crush dudes when you have the size advantage, and it matters a lot more than a low centre of gravity.

I'd recheck those numbers. All-time hit leaders in the NHL - only 3 players above 6'4 (Wilson, Jordan Staal and at 6'6 Brian Boyle)
The rest are betwee 5'10 (Callahan - the shortest) to 6'3. Most of the players listed are between 6-6'2.

NHL Forwards ‑ All-Time Hits Leaders

NHL forwards who hold the all-time record for the most hits in NHL. All-time hits leaders for NHL forwards.

www.quanthockey.com

 

[NewEraGM]

Certainly not as bad as Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Lol, yes that was a bad pick too but don’t confuse things, Dorion is an awful GM and the sens have shown ZERO improvement in 3 years. Another top 5 pick….one bad draft pick is not as bad as years of incompetence

 

[Constable]

Certainly not as bad as Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Kotkaniemi just signed a 8 year NHL deal, there is legitimate concern about Boucher playing pro, affiliated hockey.


Don't worry folks. he's picking up though: his torrid surge of 7 points in 10 games now puts him on track to tie with Isaac Belliveau (5th round defenceman pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins) in terms of points per game this year

 

[nbwingsfan]

Sens scouts probably see him as a Tom Wilson clone; which is funny because they both had very underwhelming junior careers stats wise.
Not saying Boucher will become a solid player like Wilson, but the similarities are evident.

Similarities? Boucher has EIGHT PIM in the OHL. Wilson had 141. They play nothing alike.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

I have been impressed with him as of late. He looked lost earlier in the season.
Looks like he’s finally starting to block out the noise and find his game.

 

[SensontheRush]

Kotkaniemi just signed a 8 year NHL deal, there is legitimate concern about Boucher playing pro, affiliated hockey.


Don't worry folks. he's picking up though: his torrid surge of 7 points in 10 games now puts him on track to tie with Isaac Belliveau (5th round defenceman pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins) in terms of points per game this year

When you fall for the bait.

 

[BondraTime]

Hence why I specifically wrote over 82 games.

Sure, but that doesn’t mean much. If everyone played 82 games there’s close to 100 OHLers this year on pace for 30 goals.

 

[wetcoast]

Certainly not as bad as Jesperi Kotkaniemi

This is an odd comment to say the least.

Sure he was a reach but he had a decent D+1 season playing in the NHL not struggling in college then a meh start in the OHL.

Boucher has time on his side compared to JK sure but he isn't very close to being an NHL player either right now.

 

[wetcoast]

I think he has more skill than the three players you listed, but admittedly his current stats don't correspond with that. Then again, you got to take into account the circumstances surrounding that. I don't want to make excuses because plenty of these players had to deal with similar issues.

Ultimately, Boucher needs to play at a 1.5-2 PPG pace next season in the O to show proof of that skill. I think he's capable of that.

Man if you are expecting a 1.5 to 2 PPG average for Boucher next year then you are going to be really disappointed and that's also not a fair target either.

I think a more reasonable expectation would be in the 1.25 PPG range depending on line mates and usage but stats aren't what will matter it's how his physical game translates along with his skill game to the highest level and that's really up in the air right now,

 

[GTA]

Man if you are expecting a 1.5 to 2 PPG average for Boucher next year then you are going to be really disappointed and that's also not a fair target either.

I think a more reasonable expectation would be in the 1.25 PPG range depending on line mates and usage but stats aren't what will matter it's how his physical game translates along with his skill game to the highest level and that's really up in the air right now,

When I watch him play I think a PPG is extremely ambitious. He looks like he is struggling to make even basic reads and doesn’t seem to make many intelligent decisions with the puck at the junior level. Will need a lot of improvement to be considered even a good player in that league.

 

[ponder]

I'd recheck those numbers. All-time hit leaders in the NHL - only 3 players above 6'4 (Wilson, Jordan Staal and at 6'6 Brian Boyle)
The rest are betwee 5'10 (Callahan - the shortest) to 6'3. Most of the players listed are between 6-6'2.

NHL Forwards ‑ All-Time Hits Leaders

NHL forwards who hold the all-time record for the most hits in NHL. All-time hits leaders for NHL forwards.

www.quanthockey.com

My stats are correct, feel free to check them yourself on NHL.com.

You're moving the goalposts including 6'3" players, you initially said 6'-6'2". 6'3" is a big player, and 2" taller than Boucher. In the link you provided, I went through the top 20, and 9 are 6'3"+ (Ovie, Matt Martin, Backes, Lucic, Tom Wilson, Marcus Foligno, Getzlaf, Jordan Staal, Brouwer), so 45%, while only 26% of NHLers are 6'3"+. So yeah, big guys are overrepresented among top hitters, small-average sized guys underrepresented. Doesn't mean there aren't small-average sized guys who are great hitters, there are plenty, it just means that overall, big guys are overrepresented among top hitters, because size is a net advantage. Of course, the taller you go, the fewer you'll find, because really tall players are rare, period, just as really tall humans are rare, period. i.e. this season only 26% of skaters are 6'3"+, only 12% 6'4"+, only 6% 6'5"+, etc., that's why you really need to compare the correlation of size to hits, not the raw count of players - average size players will be most represented in basically any stat you can think of in terms of raw counts, because there are so many average sized players.

Also, career stats are a bit weird - in a single season, games played are reasonably constant between players, while for career stats a huge component is not just how physical they are, but how long they play. Look at the top 30, 50, 100, whatever in hits in any given season, and you'll see roughly 40-50% of the top hitters are 6'3"+, while only ~25% of skaters are 6'3"+, big guys are clearly overrepresented in top hitters.

I'm not saying Boucher won't be a great hitter - if he makes it as an NHLer, I'm sure he will be. I'm saying he won't be the next Tom Wilson, because being huge is a critical part of Tom Wilson's game. Not just in terms of being a punishing hitter, but a guy who wins puck battles, protects the puck, and just generally dominates with his size/strength all over the ice. He wouldn't be able to do this the same way if he was 6'1" instead of 6'4".