RW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016 Draft) III

[tacogeoff]

Laine will be a great 2nd pick. would love to see Matthews on the Jets but you cant go wrong with Laine or Pulju as a pick. they show much promise even though they are not on Matthew's level.

 

[No1Joker]

Laine will be a great 2nd pick. would love to see Matthews on the Jets but you cant go wrong with Laine or Pulju as a pick. they show much promise even though they are not on Matthew's level.

They definetely are on Matthews level, center is a much more coveted position by clubs plus his American. I have seen couple games by Matthews on the season in NLA and international games and i havent seen anything that makes Matthews tier above Pulju/Laine.

All 3 will be elite players in their prime in NHL, you can count on that.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I would compare them to Rick Nash and Kopitar in terms of style.

Is that fair?

I would say that the Laine to Nash comparison isn't that far off, except for their goal scoring. They can both score in a variety of ways, but Laine has a considerably better shot, which makes him a much more dangerous goal scorer. Nash doesn't really score on perimeter shots, no more than most other forwards. Laine has that Ovechkin, Stamkos, Tarasenko type ability where he can score a lot of goals from the perimeter, Nash doesn't do that.

Comparing them as players, I think Rick Nash's peak with an extra ten goals added in for his perimeter shot is about what you should expect from Laine in most seasons. I think Laine has a higher peak though. Think 100-110 points, 50-55 goals.

 

[StIllmatic]

Thoughts on converting him to center?

 

[Puckluck]

Expectations

Some people seem to believe that high expectations of Laine are not justified. I dug up previous drafts and their later records to get a sense on how the top forward picks have typically performed. I selected the first three forward picks in the draft years from 2004 through 2011 and chose their best season strictly with regards to points produced. I then summarized them in the table below and took the average of the records.

Based on these statistics alone, if Laine was chosen within the first three picks, his average goals scoring expectancy in his best season would be 30 goals. His best point production would be 71 points. If things go very well for him, he could of course exceed these stats. It therefore seems to be totally within reason to optimistically expect that he could do better than that, although it may not pan out that way.

Year Name Pick Season Games Goals Assists Points
2004 Alex Ovechkin 1 2007-08 82 65 47 112
2004 Evgeni Malkin 2 2008-09 82 35 78 113
2004 Andrew Ladd 4 2014-15 81 24 38 62
2005 Sidney Crosby 1 2009-10 81 51 58 109
2005 Bobby Ryan 2 2010-11 82 34 37 71
2005 Benoit Pouliot 4 2015-16 55 14 22 36
2006 Jordan Staal 2 2011-12 62 25 25 50
2006 Jonathan Toews 3 2010-11 80 32 44 76
2006 Nicklas Backstrom 4 2009-10 82 33 68 101
2007 Patrick Kane 1 2015-16 75 39 54 93
2007 James van Riemsdyk 2 2013-14 80 30 31 61
2007 Kyle Turris 3 2014-15 82 24 40 64
2008 Steven Stamkos 1 2009-10 82 51 44 95
2008 Nikita Filatov 6 2010-11 23 0 7 7
2008 Colin Wilson 7 2014-15 77 20 22 42
2009 John Tavares 1 2014-15 82 38 48 86
2009 Matt Duchene 3 2013-14 71 23 47 70
2009 Evander Kane 4 2011-12 74 30 27 57
2010 Taylor Hall 1 2013-14 75 27 53 80
2010 Tyler Seguin 2 2013-14 80 37 47 84
2010 Ryan Johansen 4 2014-15 82 26 45 71
2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1 2014-15 76 24 32 56
2011 Gabriel Landeskog 2 2013-14 81 26 39 65
2011 Jonathan Huberdeau 3 2014-15 79 15 39 54
Average - 1st forward pick: 76.9 40.0 45.1 85.1
Average - 2nd forward pick: 72.4 27.1 41.3 68.4
Average - 3rd forward pick: 76.5 23.3 37.6 60.9
Average - first three picks: 75.3 30.1 41.3 71.5

 

[HockeyHistorian]

Some people seem to believe that high expectations of Laine are not justified. I dug up previous drafts and their later records to get a sense on how the top forward picks have typically performed. I selected the first three forward picks in the draft years from 2004 through 2011 and chose their best season strictly with regards to points produced. I then summarized them in the table below and took the average of the records.

Based on these statistics alone, if Laine was chosen within the first three picks, his average goals scoring expectancy in his best season would be 30 goals. His best point production would be 71 points. If things go very well for him, he could of course exceed these stats. It therefore seems to be totally within reason to optimistically expect that he could do better than that, although it may not pan out that way.

Year Name Pick Season Games Goals Assists Points
2004 Alex Ovechkin 1 2007-08 82 65 47 112
2004 Evgeni Malkin 2 2008-09 82 35 78 113
2004 Andrew Ladd 4 2014-15 81 24 38 62
2005 Sidney Crosby 1 2009-10 81 51 58 109
2005 Bobby Ryan 2 2010-11 82 34 37 71
2005 Benoit Pouliot 4 2015-16 55 14 22 36
2006 Jordan Staal 2 2011-12 62 25 25 50
2006 Jonathan Toews 3 2010-11 80 32 44 76
2006 Nicklas Backstrom 4 2009-10 82 33 68 101
2007 Patrick Kane 1 2015-16 75 39 54 93
2007 James van Riemsdyk 2 2013-14 80 30 31 61
2007 Kyle Turris 3 2014-15 82 24 40 64
2008 Steven Stamkos 1 2009-10 82 51 44 95
2008 Nikita Filatov 6 2010-11 23 0 7 7
2008 Colin Wilson 7 2014-15 77 20 22 42
2009 John Tavares 1 2014-15 82 38 48 86
2009 Matt Duchene 3 2013-14 71 23 47 70
2009 Evander Kane 4 2011-12 74 30 27 57
2010 Taylor Hall 1 2013-14 75 27 53 80
2010 Tyler Seguin 2 2013-14 80 37 47 84
2010 Ryan Johansen 4 2014-15 82 26 45 71
2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1 2014-15 76 24 32 56
2011 Gabriel Landeskog 2 2013-14 81 26 39 65
2011 Jonathan Huberdeau 3 2014-15 79 15 39 54
Average - 1st forward pick: 76.9 40.0 45.1 85.1
Average - 2nd forward pick: 72.4 27.1 41.3 68.4
Average - 3rd forward pick: 76.5 23.3 37.6 60.9
Average - first three picks: 75.3 30.1 41.3 71.5

Getting picked early is not a proper justification of expected production. Certainly you're not implying that the numbers above are not caused by getting picked early. First of all, you really can't justify the expected production of Laine without even looking at Laine's production, which it seems you are doing.

I believe Laine is pretty much guaranteed a few 30 goal seasons, possibly more.

 

[LV*]

Laine will be a great 2nd pick. would love to see Matthews on the Jets but you cant go wrong with Laine or Pulju as a pick. they show much promise even though they are not on Matthew's level.

Wouldn't mind seeing a TOR-WPG hf rivalry if we get Laine and you guys get Pulju.

Assuming Edmonton wins #1.

 

[Puckluck]

To hockeyhistorian:
I agree that it is not the pick order that produces points. The intent with my post was to give a recent historical perspective on production of the top picks. If you believe Laine's goal scoring ability, talent and expectancy is that of Ovechkin, then you could argue that the stats I posted would justify much higher goal scoring than the average.

 

[HockeyHistorian]

To hockeyhistorian:
I agree that it is not the pick order that produces points. The intent with my post was to give a recent historical perspective on production of the top picks. If you believe Laine's goal scoring ability, talent and expectancy is that of Ovechkin, then you could argue that the stats I posted would justify much higher goal scoring than the average.

I confess that I mostly commented because I was bored and I just saw what looked like an erroneous assumption. In other words, I was nitpicking because I was bored, which I'm sure happens a lot around here.

 

[Noma]

Thoughts on converting him to center?

He said in an interview some weeks ago that he's as pure winger as it gets and that centermen need to defend too much for his preferences. He added that of course he could learn to do that and would play there if coach says so, but for now he's very happy at his wing.

 

[Loffer]

I confess that I mostly commented because I was bored and I just saw what looked like an erroneous assumption. In other words, I was nitpicking because I was bored, which I'm sure happens a lot around here.

Welcome to the club of "bored and beautiful", or something, mr. HockeyHistorian.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Thoughts on converting him to center?

A good way to look at it is, would you convert Ovi to center?

It's just not required.

 

[psycho_dad*]

So you are a person capable of performing a psychological evaluation on another person simply by knowing him personally?

Well, that's how all psychological evaluations are done, by knowing someone personally.

Not that I know if this guy has official credentials, but when you personally know someone, that puts you in a position where you have plenty of information for analysis.

He might be wrong, but at least he has valid data straight from the source which is a lot more than most can say.

 

[Joe MacMillan]

Well, that's how all psychological evaluations are done, by knowing someone personally.

Not that I know if this guy has official credentials, but when you personally know someone, that puts you in a position where you have plenty of information for analysis.

True, but you also need the appropriate ability and knowledge to make a credible analysis together with a personal relationship with the principal. Hence the word "simply."

He might be wrong, but at least he has valid data straight from the source which is a lot more than most can say.

Well, he may have valid data from the source (I mean who knows how well he actually knows Laine if at all), just like he might be biased with his analysis and therefore ineligible for making a credible analysis in the first place even if he had credentials.

Anyways, considering the initial statement he made (deleted, don't know if you saw it, not gonna repeat it since it's probably against the rules), the poster has little to no credibility left regarding the matter in my book.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Is Bobby Ryan a good comparable? Not as a ceiling but is there a chance he becomes a similar player to Bobby Ryan?

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Thoughts on converting him to center?

Not gonna happen Laine is pure goal-scoring winger and that's it

 

[JJTT]

Is Bobby Ryan a good comparable? Not as a ceiling but is there a chance he becomes a similar player to Bobby Ryan?

Not at all. Ryan scores more garbage scores in front of the net with occasional highlight reel goal, while Laine is a pure sniper.

Kovalchuk is a better comparison, if you are really looking for one. Similar style of sniping the puck from outside the faceoff circle.

 

[Mestaruus]

Potentially 7 games of Laine vs Pulju & Aho to be watched when their teams face each other in the next round (semifinal) of Liiga playoffs. Starting this Friday. Going to be interesting for sure.

 

[Brewsky]

Not at all. Ryan scores more garbage scores in front of the net with occasional highlight reel goal, while Laine is a pure sniper.

Kovalchuk is a better comparison, if you are really looking for one. Similar style of sniping the puck from outside the faceoff circle.

Good Lord thinking of Marner dishing apples to a potential Laine and Stamkos linemates.

 

[Gsus]

I've tried to think good comparable players for him but haven't found any. Kovalchuk is pretty close tho. He has that Kovalchuk potential with a physical upside. Ovy would be a close one too because he has that physical game.

Just add more power in general and explosiveness to the skating, and he could become a player to be compared to. I don't really see a scenario that he doesn't become a superstar in the NHL someday, he just has all the tools with that game-changing ability.

 

[Raimo Sillanpää]

Didn't he get kicked off his team for being immature for giving his coach the finger at a major tourny? I wouldn't call that always stepping up, and I'm a fan of Laine.

"Put me on the ice Coach, I'll score.."
"Hey Coach, put me on the ice."
"Coach.."
"hey Coach.. seriously, do you want to win or not?"

"Hey coach, **** **** ****!"

He steps up, because he wants to win so bad.

I know he's supposedly grown up, and I'd take him second. But it does show he doesn't always step up, which people are trying to use to say he's better than Matthews.

I contend that it shows he does step up, always.

That wanting to win so bad, is what stepping up when it counts is all about. He has matured in that now he won't show the coach the finger or threaten to beat up or kill him - but internally he'll still be fuming. Because he wants to be on the ice to score the goal.


Tiers, haven't you guys heard, he's the second coming of Dustin Rose.

Matthews will still go first, but this will maybe end up like the 1988 draft, look at it in hindsight and you have a hard time judging who should go first - good arguments for all choices.

 

[perstakli]

To hockeyhistorian:
I agree that it is not the pick order that produces points. The intent with my post was to give a recent historical perspective on production of the top picks. If you believe Laine's goal scoring ability, talent and expectancy is that of Ovechkin, then you could argue that the stats I posted would justify much higher goal scoring than the average.

While the statistics you gathered are interesting, the problem is that they don't really tell us anything about the peak of those players - the oldest of those players pretty much at the end of their peak (as traditionally defined) while the youngest have played for less than 4 seasons, and will no doubt improve on their best seasons. Also, due to the variance in players involved, I'm not sure if we can really draw any meaningful conclusions from comparing the top-3. I mean, Ovechkin-Malkin-Ladd vs Stamkos-Filatov-Wilson? I feel there's just too much noise there.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I've tried to think good comparable players for him but haven't found any. Kovalchuk is pretty close tho. He has that Kovalchuk potential with a physical upside. Ovy would be a close one too because he has that physical game.

Just add more power in general and explosiveness to the skating, and he could become a player to be compared to. I don't really see a scenario that he doesn't become a superstar in the NHL someday, he just has all the tools with that game-changing ability.

Pilju is more like Kovalchuk IMO. Laine is winger version of Sundin or poor mans Mario lemieux.

 

[ottawa]

Laine will be a great 2nd pick. would love to see Matthews on the Jets but you cant go wrong with Laine or Pulju as a pick. they show much promise even though they are not on Matthew's level.

Laine ≥ Mathews

 

[Loffer]

Bad-Trick Laine should show some more tricks in upcoming 2nd round of POs and wipe Pulju out of the discussion of the 2nd OA. We will see.