On talent alone, he should go no later than 2nd. Outside factors could cause him to fall. I wish that the Habs would choose him if he was available at their pick, but I don't see them picking a small Russian winger with their first pick, because of all the rumours that were swirling around the team prior to last year's draft.
Nothing I've heard to this point indicates that there has been a change in the rumours. Alas, even if I disagree, I'm not about to change my allegiances after loving this team for 50+ years.