RW Matvei Michkov (2023, 7th, PHI) Part 4

[Kshahdoo]

They both suck, as does the idea of Michkov at C

Btw Kaprizov was 8 months older than Michkov is now...

 

[FlyguyOX]

I’m far from a fan of Grant, but he’s not wrong in this instance. The quality of the league is a long ways from what it was even five years ago and that does play a factor in contextualizing Michkov’s stats. It’s one thing to be talking about his PPG rate being similar to guys like Jagr/Radulov/Morozov/Moyzyakin/Yashin/etc. in a given year - it’s another to be trailing top KHL players like Leivo and Weal that are nowhere near NHL quality at this stage of their careers and would be second rate KHL players in previous years.

Michkov’s an elite, exciting prospect and I still like following him after investing a lot of time in his draft year… but there’s no sense in ignoring important and fairly objective/measurable context just because Grant was the person that said it.

Those same guys you listed would be leading the AHL in scoring.

I'd say KHL is tougher than AHL right now, or if you're cynical than atleast the same.

I'm looking forward to seeing if the Flyers are able to get him over this summer.

 

[Zine]

I’m far from a fan of Grant, but he’s not wrong in this instance. The quality of the league is a long ways from what it was even five years ago and that does play a factor in contextualizing Michkov’s stats. It’s one thing to be talking about his PPG rate being similar to guys like Jagr/Radulov/Morozov/Moyzyakin/Yashin/etc. in a given year - it’s another to be trailing top KHL players like Leivo and Weal that are nowhere near NHL quality at this stage of their careers and would be second rate KHL players in previous years.

Michkov’s an elite, exciting prospect and I still like following him after investing a lot of time in his draft year… but there’s no sense in ignoring important and fairly objective/measurable context just because Grant was the person that said it.

Last year non-NHL level defensemen like Murphy, Duszak, Ebert, Leslie, outscored Voronkov. Yet Voronkov is easily NHL quality, currently scoring at about .6 points/game.

Shit, Jagr was outscored by the great Patrick Thoresen his final year in KHL. A year later Jagr was 3rd leading producer on the Flyers.

There are numerous other elements and nuances that factor into the equation other than ‘player-Y couldn't outscore (insert favorite NHL wash-out), therefore he must not be as good as advertised.’

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Btw Kaprizov was 8 months older than Michkov is now...

Take out the one SKA game, and he beats him for PPG.

 

[Draft]

Those same guys you listed would be leading the AHL in scoring.

I'd say KHL is tougher than AHL right now, or if you're cynical than atleast the same.

I'm looking forward to seeing if the Flyers are able to get him over this summer.

It’s still a good league, just isn’t what it used to be. It’ll be all kinds of fun and drama if he gets to the NHL next year.

Last year non-NHL level defensemen like Murphy, Duszak, Ebert, Leslie, outscored Voronkov. Yet Voronkov is easily NHL quality, currently scoring at about .6 points/game.

Shit, Jagr was outscored by the great Patrick Thoresen his final year in KHL. A year later Jagr was 3rd leading producer on the Flyers.

There are numerous other elements and nuances that factor into the equation other than ‘player-Y couldn't outscore (insert favorite NHL wash-out), therefore he must not be as good as advertised.’

Both the top end talent and depth across the league have taken a big hit in the last couple years. Those are important considerations if we’re projecting a prospect's success on account of record breaking stats.

In terms of Voronkov, it’s a tough comparable. He has the benefit of playing a very translatable game to the NHL with a frame and physical tools that are exceptional in either league - Michkov isn’t in the same position (though I’m certain he’ll find a way to translate a lot of his play). While I think there’s important context to keep in mind, he’s still had an awesome season. Hopefully he can be put in a good position with SKA next season, maybe even break another record.

 

[FlyguyOX]

It’s still a good league, just isn’t what it used to be. It’ll be all kinds of fun and drama if he gets to the NHL next year.

Both the top end talent and depth across the league have taken a big hit in the last couple years. Those are important considerations if we’re projecting a prospect's success on account of record breaking stats.

In terms of Voronkov, it’s a tough comparable. He has the benefit of playing a very translatable game to the NHL with a frame and physical tools that are exceptional in either league - Michkov isn’t in the same position (though I’m certain he’ll find a way to translate a lot of his play). While I think there’s important context to keep in mind, he’s still had an awesome season. Hopefully he can be put in a good position with SKA next season, maybe even break another record.

Voronkov played on a league-best team, too, whereas Michkov played on a pretty crap team. If Michkov played with SKA-caliber guys with appropriate usage for his skill level (top 3 in TOI including PP1) I think he approaches 1.5pts/game last season.

 

[Fatass]

Kid looks like the steal of his draft and a couple clubs, who passed over him, will be very disappointed they did. But he still hasn’t played in the National League, so don’t know for sure until he does.

 

[Draft]

Voronkov played on a league-best team, too, whereas Michkov played on a pretty crap team. If Michkov played with SKA-caliber guys with appropriate usage for his skill level (top 3 in TOI including PP1) I think he approaches 1.5pts/game last season.

Is that appropriate usage or is it ideal conditions for maximizing his production? Getting those kinds of minutes on a top team would require Michkov to play on both sides of the puck consistently and create offence within the team structure. He’s capable of it but it’s not what he showed this season and it’s likely why he didn’t make the SKA team to begin with.

For better AND worse, all Sochi’s offence goes through Michkov. The entire team strategy is built around getting him the puck and putting him in a position to score. Players produce with opportunity, oftentimes regardless of who they play with. Outside of being able to rely on better linemates, these have been exceptional conditions for a young player to put up big stats. Hard to say whether it’s been good for his development as I think I’d have preferred to see him produce less with SKA while maturing his game and learning from better players. I can’t think of another prospect in recent years with a similar situation in a professional league.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Voronkov played on a league-best team, too, whereas Michkov played on a pretty crap team. If Michkov played with SKA-caliber guys with appropriate usage for his skill level (top 3 in TOI including PP1) I think he approaches 1.5pts/game last season.

I think if he didn't have health problems he would have scored much better PPG. When you had 4 illnesses/season, one of which was pneumonia, it's really tough to keep your form at the highest level.

 

[Sombastate]

Yeah, without Pneumonia, I think any reasonable person would agree he shatters the U20 KHL record.

Anyone who is acting like Michkov isn't an absolute elite prospect has an axe to grind. There's no two ways about it. That doesn't mean he will live up to the hype, plenty of players don't (Patrick, Yakupov, Pool-Party, shit even Laine never lived up). But he's without a doubt an elite prospect

 

[lawrence]

Kid looks like the steal of his draft and a couple clubs, who passed over him, will be very disappointed they did. But he still hasn’t played in the National League, so don’t know for sure until he does.

Personally I think it had to do with the Russian factor. Some teams had a pick to high to risk it. But at some point the flyers thought he’s also too good to pass up on.

 

[Fatass]

Personally I think it had to do with the Russian factor. Some teams had a pick to high to risk it. But at some point the flyers thought he’s also too good to pass up on.

Likely played a part in some clubs’ choice, but prospects need a couple years to develop so waiting three for Michkov means getting him when he’s developed and n a three year elc too. Kind of a double win for the Flyers.

 

[Dr Jablonski PhD]

So, he finished his D+1 season with 41 pts in 47 meaningful games. The best D+1 KHL season in history. Players such as Ovechkin, Malkin, and Kaprizov, in the season after they were drafted to the NHL, didn't really come close to matching this points per game ratio. And I did one time compare the total league scoring in those years to this current year. Michkov's ratio would adjust downward, but even if you make a massive adjustment like take away 20% of Michkov's points. He's still right in the same neighborhood as Ovechkin. Michkov did this on one of the worst teams in the league. Contrary to some comedic opinions out there, playing on a bad team makes it harder to score points. Bad teams have worse players, less chemistry, less **time in the offensive zone**, less sustained pressure. For example, SKA scored 30% more goals than Sochi! And Michkov's points per game ratio of 0.87 still would have been the highest of any SKA player (Nikishin, 0.84)

Additionally, the opportunity Michkov received this season was nowhere even close to the realm of "unprecedented". Due to being on the 2nd powerplay unit, Sochi would sometimes score before he got a chance to have PP time. Or, he would have a disjointed 30 seconds of PP time. Also, Michkov was anchored to Volkov on the PP. It's hard to understate how much of a difference it makes to have Jesse Graham as the Dman on your PP unit. Michkov rarely got to experience that. Things felt different when he did happen to be out there with Graham.

He also missed a great deal of time due to persistent pneumonia, which was reported. Pneumonia can be difficult to recover from.. and nasty. I and other prospect watchers I talk with felt like ever since Michkov started missing games with illnesses, he was lacking his usual level of explosiveness, urgency, and pace, and seemed to have an even more extreme level of relying on playmaking and IQ.

Imagine what it could be like next season if the conditions he "lucks into" is even a 50th percentile set of conditions, e.g. decent health and a decent team who gives him the PP unit he deserves (and if he is with SKA, proper playing time in general)

TLDR
Michkov had the greatest ever D+1 season by points per game on a very bad team where it's much harder to score points. He also did this while fighting off persistent pneumonia which very clearly affected his play. He was not at 100% health for much of the season

 

[Andy Dufresne]

So, he finished his D+1 season with 41 pts in 47 meaningful games. The best D+1 KHL season in history. No other KHL player in the season after they were drafted to the NHL has come close to this points per game ratio. Michkov did this on one of the worst teams in the league. Contrary to some comedic opinions out there, playing on a bad team makes it harder to score points. Bad teams have worse players, less chemistry, less **time in the offensive zone**, less sustained pressure. For example, SKA scored 30% more goals than Sochi! And Michkov's points per game ratio of 0.87 still would have been the highest of any SKA player (Nikishin, 0.84)

Additionally, the opportunity Michkov received this season was nowhere even close to the realm of "unprecedented". Due to being on the 2nd powerplay unit, Sochi would sometimes score before he got a chance to have PP time. Or, he would have a disjointed 30 seconds of PP time. Also, Michkov was anchored to Volkov on the PP. It's hard to understate how much of a difference it makes to have Jesse Graham as the Dman on your PP unit. Michkov rarely got to experience that. Things felt different when he did happen to be out there with Graham.

He also missed a great deal of time due to persistent pneumonia, which was reported. Pneumonia can be difficult to recover from.. and nasty. I and other prospect watchers I talk with felt like ever since Michkov started missing games with illnesses, he was lacking his usual level of explosiveness, urgency, and pace, and seemed to have an even more extreme level of relying on playmaking and IQ.

Imagine what it could be like next season if the conditions he "lucks into" is even a 50th percentile set of conditions, e.g. decent health and a decent team who gives him the PP unit he deserves (and if he is with SKA, proper playing time in general)

TLDR
Michkov had the greatest ever D+1 season by points per game on a very bad team where it's much harder to score points. He also did this while fighting off persistent pneumonia which very clearly affected his play. He was not at 100% health for much of the season

"No other KHL player in the season after they were drafted to the NHL has come close to this points per game ratio".

Nail Yakupov had .82 pgs/gm. How many more points does a player with .003 pts/gm advantage have over a full khl season. 1 or 2. Yeah, Yakupov only played 22 games, because then the nhl lockout ended. Yakupov did that in a year when the khl had many many nhl level players who were only there because of the lockout.

If some of you can't figure out why you're getting pushback on the kind of year Michkov had it's because of a level of hyperbole that borders on outright lying. I don't hate Michkov, I like highly skilled, entertaining offensive hockey. I also don't give a shit one way or the other about the Flyers. I just don't like being lied to.

He had a great season. Other d+1 and U20 players have had great seasons in the khl before. The kind of nhl player he's going to be is going to depend mostly on how his game translates to that league, not what his ppg this year was.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

He has inarguably been the best teenager in the KHL era, and possibly the best in the RSL era as well. Next year will be a big test for him

Statements like this are why you are getting pushback. Inarguably? You can't be serious.
EDIT- if English is your 2cnd language i apologize for being harsh on language. Like if you took the 'in' out of that statement it would be perfectly true.
Michkov has been arguably the best teenager in the khl era. Very true.

 

[BMann]

"No other KHL player in the season after they were drafted to the NHL has come close to this points per game ratio".

Nail Yakupov had .82 pgs/gm. How many more points does a player with .003 pts/gm advantage have over a full khl season. 1 or 2. Yeah, Yakupov only played 22 games, because then the nhl lockout ended. Yakupov did that in a year when the khl had many many nhl level players who were only there because of the lockout.

If some of you can't figure out why you're getting pushback on the kind of year Michkov had it's because of a level of hyperbole that borders on outright lying. I don't hate Michkov, I like highly skilled, entertaining offensive hockey. I also don't give a shit one way or the other about the Flyers. I just don't like being lied to.

He had a great season. Other d+1 and U20 players have had great seasons in the khl before. The kind of nhl player he's going to be is going to depend mostly on how his game translates to that league, not what his ppg this year was.

You're comparing Yakupov to Michkov ? Lol. Yakupov who if he had a quiver on his back had one arrow to shoot with all the time while Michkov has multiple abilities on the ice. Their on ice IQs are completely different for a start.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Likely played a part in some clubs’ choice, but prospects need a couple years to develop so waiting three for Michkov means getting him when he’s developed and n a three year elc too. Kind of a double win for the Flyers.

For the Habs that was kind of the crux of the issue though, 3 years where another team has your future star's fate in their hands and you have virtually no say in what happens.

And then Reinbacher's season in Europe became a complete shitshow regardless so they kinda big brained themselves into the problem they were looking to avoid

 

[Kshahdoo]

"No other KHL player in the season after they were drafted to the NHL has come close to this points per game ratio".

Nail Yakupov had .82 pgs/gm. How many more points does a player with .003 pts/gm advantage have over a full khl season. 1 or 2. Yeah, Yakupov only played 22 games, because then the nhl lockout ended. Yakupov did that in a year when the khl had many many nhl level players who were only there because of the lockout.

If some of you can't figure out why you're getting pushback on the kind of year Michkov had it's because of a level of hyperbole that borders on outright lying. I don't hate Michkov, I like highly skilled, entertaining offensive hockey. I also don't give a shit one way or the other about the Flyers. I just don't like being lied to.

He had a great season. Other d+1 and U20 players have had great seasons in the khl before. The kind of nhl player he's going to be is going to depend mostly on how his game translates to that league, not what his ppg this year was.

22 games isn't the same as 47 games. And Yakupov scored 31 points in 48 games in the NHL that season, sometimes even pigs can fly, but very occasionally.

 

[BCNate]

I can't fathom how he didn't go top 5.

 

[Grinner]

I can't fathom how he didn't go top 5.

Supposedly he told some clubs he wasn't interested in playing for them
Or at least not interested in playing for a non traditional market team

 

[majormajor]

You're comparing Yakupov to Michkov ? Lol. Yakupov who if he had a quiver on his back had one arrow to shoot with all the time while Michkov has multiple abilities on the ice. Their on ice IQs are completely different for a start.

The poster was comparing their KHL points per game, as per the ongoing discussion about that. Read carefully.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

You're comparing Yakupov to Michkov ? Lol. Yakupov who if he had a quiver on his back had one arrow to shoot with all the time while Michkov has multiple abilities on the ice. Their on ice IQs are completely different for a start.

Comparing? We were looking at age, league and production (ppg). In which they were very very close in their d+1 in the khl. Yeah lol right? I'm sure you called Yakupov busting though for sure right?
That's actually kind of the point. The biggest critic's of Yakupov's game before that draft still thought he would have a very solid (at least) nhl career. So if you're so sure Michkov is different and special, try and remember what you thought about Yakupov at the same age. He's a huge bust lol lol, only requires 20/20 hindsight. Everybody has that.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Comparing? We were looking at age, league and production (ppg). In which they were very very close in their d+1 in the khl. Yeah lol right? I'm sure you called Yakupov busting though for sure right?
That's actually kind of the point. The biggest critic's of Yakupov's game before that draft still thought he would have a very solid (at least) nhl career. So if you're so sure Michkov is different and special, try and remember what you thought about Yakupov at the same age. He's a huge bust lol lol, only requires 20/20 hindsight. Everybody has that.

You can't seriously compare PPG after 22 games vs PPG after 47 games. I mean, Leo Carlsson had 8+7 after 22 games, and look where he's now. And even then Michkov's PPG was higher than Yakupov's.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

You can't seriously compare PPG after 22 games vs PPG after 47 games. I mean, Leo Carlsson had 8+7 after 22 games, and look where he's now. And even then Michkov's PPG was higher than Yakupov's.

I just did.... and the khl was much stronger that year.

 

[Caser]

I just did.... and the khl was much stronger that year.

Was the scoring higher or lower that year?