RW/LW Vasili Podkolzin (2019, 10th, VAN) Part 5

[Diamonddog01]

Kid is a complete beast. If he keeps up his pace from the last two games he might even hit double digits in assists at the end of the season

Yes, because one should measure whether a player is a complete beast or not by the number of secondary assists he gets. No idea why other fanbases feel the need to denigrate this player...it's bizarre. We (and by we I mean Canucks fans, a notoriously negative and fickle fanbase) absolutely love this player and want him to be a Canuck for a long, long time.

 

[topched88]

I dont see 70 point upside here to be honest. Hes going to have a long career and hes going to be a useful piece. Its so strange, at times it just doesnt seem like he has the puck skills/speed to have that offensive upside then he shows flashes of this high end skill thats like where did that come from.

I see him turning into a pretty consistant 20 - 20 guy with his best years scoring 50+ points but impacting the game in many other areas. He's a gamer for sure.

 

[Zaddy]

Sunk cost fallacy is one hell of a thing, huh guys?

It's called boredom, plus I enjoy tracking any prospect I've made strong claims about (whether positive or negative) to see if my predictions turn out to be right or wrong, so dunno how that would be sunken cost, it's just something I like doing. Like why would I put in a lot of hours into scouting a player if I'm not going to follow him beyond the draft? Seems pointless.

Also when I made my last comment about 15-20 games ago he had two assists (on pace for 8 assists over a full season) and I said that he wasn't going to keep up that poor pace and that it would improve over time. Even that cautiously optimistic assessment turned out to be wrong as he went on an even slower pace up until the last two games and now he's at an astonishing pace of 9 assists over a full season.

Not gonna lie, I found that kinda hilarious. Like even when I try to be slightly optimistic about this player he keeps disappointing me. Like I would love to be wrong on this player but for every single year since the draft he has done absolutely nothing to exceed my very modest expectations of him. It's uncanny really.

Yes, because one should measure whether a player is a complete beast or not by the number of secondary assists he gets. No idea why other fanbases feel the need to denigrate this player...it's bizarre. We (and by we I mean Canucks fans, a notoriously negative and fickle fanbase) absolutely love this player and want him to be a Canuck for a long, long time.

I'm just poking fun, it has nothing to do with belonging to a different fanbase, I've criticized this player since before he was drafted, so naturally I'm tracking him as I would any other prospect I've taken a deep(er) interest in. And my main argument about Podkolzin has always been his average IQ and lack of playmaking ability, that's why I focus on his number of assists.

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

It's called boredom, plus I enjoy tracking any prospect I've made strong claims about (whether positive or negative) to see if my predictions turn out to be right or wrong, so dunno how that would be sunken cost, it's just something I like doing. Like why would I put in a lot of hours into scouting a player if I'm not going to follow him beyond the draft? Seems pointless.

Also when I made my last comment about 15-20 games ago he had two assists (on pace for 8 assists over a full season) and I said that he wasn't going to keep up that poor pace and that it would improve over time. Even that cautiously optimistic assessment turned out to be wrong as he went on an even slower pace up until the last two games and now he's at an astonishing pace of 9 assists over a full season.

Not gonna lie, I found that kinda hilarious. Like even when I try to be slightly optimistic about this player he keeps disappointing me. Like I would love to be wrong on this player but for every single year since the draft he has done absolutely nothing to exceed my very modest expectations of him. It's uncanny really.


I'm just poking fun, it has nothing to do with belonging to a different fanbase, I've criticized this player since before he was drafted, so naturally I'm tracking him as I would any other prospect I've taken a deep(er) interest in. And my main argument about Podkolzin has always been his average IQ and lack of playmaking ability, that's why I focus on his number of assists.

I usually like your analyses, especially on Swedish players, Zaddy, but I feel like this is kind of a lazy take.

In all openness, I haven't been able to watch any Canucks game besides one or two, but his background stats look quite decent. 5 v 5 he has four assists, which is the same as Pettersson, Boeser and 2 behind Horvat and Höglander. And all 4 are primary. It looks like his time or lack of time on the powerplay is depressing his assist totals. He has 1 assist on the powerplay and the on-ice shooting percentage when he's on the powerplay is horrid at 4.76% (for reference Arizona has the worst PP SH% at 9.26 and Vancouver has 12.55%, 20th).

I know referencing luck and teammates can often be a kind of cop out, but the numbers (as far as I can tell) seem to suggest a little bad luck. A lack of secondary assists doesn't really seem like a lack of playmaking to me, but rather a lack of luck, and similarly a higher shooting percentage ont the powerplay probably also results in a few extra assists as well. His /60 numbers for Scoring Chances For and High Danger Scoring Chances For are also quite good relative to his team (he's 4th, or really 3rd since Bowey doesn't really count, on the team in HDSC for /60!).

I'm not sure raw numbers is the best way to judge him based on the Canucks this year and their horrible start, and I think Podkolzin was always going to be a slow-to-warm player in the NHL. I always saw a good playmaker when I watched him in the KHL and as far as I can tell, his advanced stat numbers seem to suggest that as well in the NHL.

 

[Raistlin]

It's called boredom, plus I enjoy tracking any prospect I've made strong claims about (whether positive or negative) to see if my predictions turn out to be right or wrong, so dunno how that would be sunken cost, it's just something I like doing. Like why would I put in a lot of hours into scouting a player if I'm not going to follow him beyond the draft? Seems pointless.

Also when I made my last comment about 15-20 games ago he had two assists (on pace for 8 assists over a full season) and I said that he wasn't going to keep up that poor pace and that it would improve over time. Even that cautiously optimistic assessment turned out to be wrong as he went on an even slower pace up until the last two games and now he's at an astonishing pace of 9 assists over a full season.

Not gonna lie, I found that kinda hilarious. Like even when I try to be slightly optimistic about this player he keeps disappointing me. Like I would love to be wrong on this player but for every single year since the draft he has done absolutely nothing to exceed my very modest expectations of him. It's uncanny really.


I'm just poking fun, it has nothing to do with belonging to a different fanbase, I've criticized this player since before he was drafted, so naturally I'm tracking him as I would any other prospect I've taken a deep(er) interest in. And my main argument about Podkolzin has always been his average IQ and lack of playmaking ability, that's why I focus on his number of assists.

Some people think that Kakko is a bust, ranger fans who watch him every game will tell you he's doing a lot of things right, that he is going to break out and exceed his current pace once the environment is right for him. I guess most Canuck fans belong in this camp, no one in their right mind in Vancouver is screaming "BuST!" He is doing pretty much what long time fans expect him to do given his usage and play style.

Vancouver fans are notoriously fickle, to get most of the fanbase onboard liking his game is no easy task. If you've been following him, follow him some more, such a likeable player that is still absorbing everything like a sponge.

It's only a sunk cost in your head, no reason to double down.

 

[Zaddy]

I usually like your analyses, especially on Swedish players, Zaddy, but I feel like this is kind of a lazy take.

In all openness, I haven't been able to watch any Canucks game besides one or two, but his background stats look quite decent. 5 v 5 he has four assists, which is the same as Pettersson, Boeser and 2 behind Horvat and Höglander. And all 4 are primary. It looks like his time or lack of time on the powerplay is depressing his assist totals. He has 1 assist on the powerplay and the on-ice shooting percentage when he's on the powerplay is horrid at 4.76% (for reference Arizona has the worst PP SH% at 9.26 and Vancouver has 12.55%, 20th).

I know referencing luck and teammates can often be a kind of cop out, but the numbers (as far as I can tell) seem to suggest a little bad luck. A lack of secondary assists doesn't really seem like a lack of playmaking to me, but rather a lack of luck, and similarly a higher shooting percentage ont the powerplay probably also results in a few extra assists as well. His /60 numbers for Scoring Chances For and High Danger Scoring Chances For are also quite good relative to his team (he's 4th, or really 3rd since Bowey doesn't really count, on the team in HDSC for /60!).

I'm not sure raw numbers is the best way to judge him based on the Canucks this year and their horrible start, and I think Podkolzin was always going to be a slow-to-warm player in the NHL. I always saw a good playmaker when I watched him in the KHL and as far as I can tell, his advanced stat numbers seem to suggest that as well in the NHL.

The thing is that the argument you're making is the same most Podkolzin supporters have made since his draft year. "He's unlucky", "he's not getting the minutes", "the coach is sabotaging him" along with things like "he looks great visually", "he works hard" etc. I'm kinda still waiting for the point where people stop making excuses for his production (or lack thereof). In all my years on this site I honestly don't know if I've ever seen a top prospect get more leeway and uncritical support than Podkolzin.

With that being said I think the main disconnect here, at least when it comes to Canucks fans, is that many of them probably didn't have preconceived notions of Podkolzin and are just happy if he turns out to be a solid middle-six forward who can complement their more talented players. In contrast I'm arguing from the standpoint of his draft year where he was routinely ranked within the top5 for most of the season and seen as a player who could do it all and would be a legit 1st liner in the NHL. Craig Button called him "a complete winger with all the qualities that you want in a player".

That stuff is what I've always taken an offense with, and I still have not seen any of the people who echoed these thoughts take a step back and admit that he's not at all on that trajectory. Rather they get defensive and make excuses or say he's not at all a bad playmaker or that his hockey IQ is really quite good. But if he has those qualities + a good shot and hustles out there, then why doesn't he produce more? He's on pace for 22 points, which doesn't exactly point to elite upside.

 

[Zaddy]

Some people think that Kakko is a bust, ranger fans who watch him every game will tell you he's doing a lot of things right, that he is going to break out and exceed his current pace once the environment is right for him. I guess most Canuck fans belong in this camp, no one in their right mind in Vancouver is screaming "BuST!" He is doing pretty much what long time fans expect him to do given his usage and play style.

Vancouver fans are notoriously fickle, to get most of the fanbase onboard liking his game is no easy task. If you've been following him, follow him some more, such a likeable player that is still absorbing everything like a sponge.

It's only a sunk cost in your head, no reason to double down.

It's one thing to like a player and another for him to reach his perceived potential. Oilers drafted Puljujärvi in 2016, a player I was just as critical of as Podkolzin but for slightly different reasons. But he had to completely change his game just to become a useful NHLer, which I'm glad he did, but he's nowhere near the player he was billed as on draft day (elite 1st line winger) and is unlikely to ever be that player. Everyone in the Oilers fanbase are happy for Jesse and that he made it back to the NHL and has become an actual useful player, but that doesn't mean he's not a massive disappointment compared to expectations. Podkolzin won't be as big of a disappointment because he never had the same level of upside, but you don't draft a player in the top10 with the hopes of him becoming a solid middle-six guy / complementary top-six forward.

 

[Gstank]

The thing is that the argument you're making is the same most Podkolzin supporters have made since his draft year. "He's unlucky", "he's not getting the minutes", "the coach is sabotaging him" along with things like "he looks great visually", "he works hard" etc. I'm kinda still waiting for the point where people stop making excuses for his production (or lack thereof). In all my years on this site I honestly don't know if I've ever seen a top prospect get more leeway and uncritical support than Podkolzin.

With that being said I think the main disconnect here, at least when it comes to Canucks fans, is that many of them probably didn't have preconceived notions of Podkolzin and are just happy if he turns out to be a solid middle-six forward who can complement their more talented players. In contrast I'm arguing from the standpoint of his draft year where he was routinely ranked within the top5 for most of the season and seen as a player who could do it all and would be a legit 1st liner in the NHL. Craig Button called him "a complete winger with all the qualities that you want in a player".

That stuff is what I've always taken an offense with, and I still have not seen any of the people who echoed these thoughts take a step back and admit that he's not at all on that trajectory. Rather they get defensive and make excuses or say he's not at all a bad playmaker or that his hockey IQ is really quite good. But if he has those qualities + a good shot and hustles out there, then why doesn't he produce more? He's on pace for 22 points, which doesn't exactly point to elite upside.

His value isnt in his point totals its in his overall game. Ive heard Hyman comparsions and that probably isnt to far off. He is a solid player who will probably be around 40-50 points but his value in making room for his teammates to produce and drive offensive while he does all the greasy things like winning puck battles, and getting takeways. Those type of players who can play in the top 6 are worth top 10 picks because they are a lot harder to find then the pure offensive players.

 

[Zaddy]

His value isnt in his point totals its in his overall game. Ive heard Hyman comparsions and that probably isnt to far off. He is a solid player who will probably be around 40-50 points but his value in making room for his teammates to produce and drive offensive while he does all the greasy things like winning puck battles, and getting takeways. Those type of players who can play in the top 6 are worth top 10 picks because they are a lot harder to find then the pure offensive players.

Completely disagree with the bolded but agree with the rest. But if you said that was your expectations of Podkolzin on draft day you'd have been roasted.

 

[Icebreakers]

It's one thing to like a player and another for him to reach his perceived potential. Oilers drafted Puljujärvi in 2016, a player I was just as critical of as Podkolzin but for slightly different reasons. But he had to completely change his game just to become a useful NHLer, which I'm glad he did, but he's nowhere near the player he was billed as on draft day (elite 1st line winger) and is unlikely to ever be that player. Everyone in the Oilers fanbase are happy for Jesse and that he made it back to the NHL and has become an actual useful player, but that doesn't mean he's not a massive disappointment compared to expectations. Podkolzin won't be as big of a disappointment because he never had the same level of upside, but you don't draft a player in the top10 with the hopes of him becoming a solid middle-six guy / complementary top-six forward.

Top 10 is such a arbitrary number though. Is the 10th pick that far off from the 15th pick in terms of talent?

Since the year 2000, theres only been TWO players drafted at the 10th pick who are top line forward/top pairing dman.

Mikko Rantanen and Jonas Brodin.

If Podkolzin becomes a solid middle-six guy or complimentary top six forward, hes in the top third of all # 10 picks in the last 20 years.

 

[Gstank]

Completely disagree with the bolded but agree with the rest. But if you said that was your expectations of Podkolzin on draft day you'd have been roasted.

He has been exactly what Ive excepted because I saw him play in his draft year. he is a powerforward who has offensive flair which is way he went so high and was expected to go that high in the draft. Powerforwards are hard to come by and powerforwards who can put up 20 goals 40/50 points a year are even rarer

 

[Gstank]

He has been exactly what Ive excepted because I saw him play in his draft year. he is a powerforward who has offensive flair which is way he went so high and was expected to go that high in the draft. Powerforwards are hard to come by and powerforwards who can put up 20 goals 40/50 points a year are even rarer

For everyone 1 Podz there are 5 Hoglanders or Boesers

 

[Raistlin]

For everyone 1 Podz there are 5 Hoglanders or Boesers

Zaddy has two "baggage" that clouds his judgement of the player. He is judging him as a prospect that was once ranked as a top 3 pick. Second, he was expecting early production.

I judge him like you do, his unique skillset, his value in playoffs and how he complements the current core. A player like him is perfect for this market. This core of smallish skill players with limited grit. Watching Bertuzzi develop was exciting, when he was making bonehead mistake after mistake. Podkolzin I imagine would be as fun to watch.

 

[Zaddy]

Zaddy has two "baggage" that clouds his judgement of the player. He is judging him as a prospect that was once ranked as a top 3 pick. Second, he was expecting early production.

I judge him like you do, his unique skillset, his value in playoffs and how he complements the current core. A player like him is perfect for this market. This core of smallish skill players with limited grit. Watching Bertuzzi develop was exciting, when he was making bonehead mistake after mistake. Podkolzin I imagine would be as fun to watch.

I wasn't expecting early production, in fact he's more on-track for what I was expecting of him than what other people were expecting of him, yet every time I point out this everyone gets defensive. Honestly part of the reason I'm still arguing in this thread is that I'm waiting for anyone who argued Podkolzin had way higher upside than I projected him to have to admit that he's simply not on-track to be that really good 1st line player they were so convinced he'd be. But these people have either disappeared, make excuses or continue to move the goalposts.

I feel like if you're going to argue forcefully about something on this site it's important to have some level of accountability. I would have no problem admitting I was wrong on Podkolzin if I was indeed wrong, but so far I haven't been.

Meanwhile players like Cozens and Byram were two players I also criticized a lot in that same draft and I have no problem saying Cozens, although he has yet to exceed my projections of him, has looked better than I thought he would and I think more highly of him now than I did on draft day.

Same with Byram, my gripe with him was that I didn't see him becoming a #1D like everyone else and, although he's not a #1D yet he has shown he has the tools to actually get there one day and just needs more experience, which is completely fine.

But Podkolzin has shown me nothing that would indicate that he'll be a better player than I projected, yet all I see in this thread is praise for him and anyone who dares criticize a player who is underwhelming relative to expectations you get a hoard of posters showing up to defend him. It's jarring.

 

[Zaddy]

Top 10 is such a arbitrary number though. Is the 10th pick that far off from the 15th pick in terms of talent?

Since the year 2000, theres only been TWO players drafted at the 10th pick who are top line forward/top pairing dman.

Mikko Rantanen and Jonas Brodin.

If Podkolzin becomes a solid middle-six guy or complimentary top six forward, hes in the top third of all # 10 picks in the last 20 years.

How is top10 an arbitrary number? That is generally the range you expect to draft an elite player in any given year. It is far more arbitrary to limit yourself to the #10 pick alone and ignoring the players that were drafted behind that number, as those guys were available and could've been picked in the top10 instead.

Like Oilers drafted Broberg at #8 with Zegras available. Am I supposed not to fault them from that by saying that #8 is an arbitrary number and there has only been so and so many players that were elite who was drafted at #8 in the past?

No, you have to look at the full picture, and in that range you do expect to pick up a high-end player. If you don't, you have failed.

 

[OregonCanuck]

Him and Petey play well together. Could be a great long term line mate. Love the way Podz plays

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

The thing is that the argument you're making is the same most Podkolzin supporters have made since his draft year. "He's unlucky", "he's not getting the minutes", "the coach is sabotaging him" along with things like "he looks great visually", "he works hard" etc. I'm kinda still waiting for the point where people stop making excuses for his production (or lack thereof). In all my years on this site I honestly don't know if I've ever seen a top prospect get more leeway and uncritical support than Podkolzin.

With that being said I think the main disconnect here, at least when it comes to Canucks fans, is that many of them probably didn't have preconceived notions of Podkolzin and are just happy if he turns out to be a solid middle-six forward who can complement their more talented players. In contrast I'm arguing from the standpoint of his draft year where he was routinely ranked within the top5 for most of the season and seen as a player who could do it all and would be a legit 1st liner in the NHL. Craig Button called him "a complete winger with all the qualities that you want in a player".

That stuff is what I've always taken an offense with, and I still have not seen any of the people who echoed these thoughts take a step back and admit that he's not at all on that trajectory. Rather they get defensive and make excuses or say he's not at all a bad playmaker or that his hockey IQ is really quite good. But if he has those qualities + a good shot and hustles out there, then why doesn't he produce more? He's on pace for 22 points, which doesn't exactly point to elite upside.

Yes, I can see your point: Podkolzin has never really put up elite numbers and despite being discussed as a top 5 pick for large parts of his draft year, he hasn't really showed that offensive production to merit that standing.

However, it does seem a little like you're arguing with phantoms a little bit. Perhaps Button and others argued that he was elite in his draft year, yet Button placed him 9th on his Final Rankings and McKenzie had him 8th, which is hardly elite territory. It seems like people cooled on his throughout his draft year and lowered their projections closer to what most people project him to be as of now, at least as far as his ceiling goes. I'm glad you wrote what you did about the disconnect and coming to the player with a different perspective, as your critique makes more sense from that point of view. Although it still seems that there aren't really that many people who hold that view and I don't see of lot of people in this thread recently aruging for that. And as for his draft year, I think people misread if they thought that Podkolzin's game was going to be that of an all out offensive dynamo like Hughes or Zegras, and I would agree with you that their take was and is wrong.

I understand your crituqe on his playmkaing as well, citing his assist totals throughout his career and this year in the NHL. But I don't think the method you're using to come to that conlcusion for this year is all that accurate. You again cite his low raw totals (pace for 22 points), but in my previous post I tried to provide some context for that. I mean, 0 seconardy assists really doesn't have anything to say against a player's playmaking ability. His primary assists /60 is 9th on the team, ahead of Miller, Pearson, Boeser, Pettersson, Höglander. To me, it looks like the points are coming, as the underlying stats are good, they just haven't come yet. And I think that's why he isn't producing more at the moment.

 

[Zaddy]

Yes, I can see your point: Podkolzin has never really put up elite numbers and despite being discussed as a top 5 pick for large parts of his draft year, he hasn't really showed that offensive production to merit that standing.

However, it does seem a little like you're arguing with phantoms a little bit. Perhaps Button and others argued that he was elite in his draft year, yet Button placed him 9th on his Final Rankings and McKenzie had him 8th, which is hardly elite territory. It seems like people cooled on his throughout his draft year and lowered their projections closer to what most people project him to be as of now, at least as far as his ceiling goes. I'm glad you wrote what you did about the disconnect and coming to the player with a different perspective, as your critique makes more sense from that point of view. Although it still seems that there aren't really that many people who hold that view and I don't see of lot of people in this thread recently aruging for that. And as for his draft year, I think people misread if they thought that Podkolzin's game was going to be that of an all out offensive dynamo like Hughes or Zegras, and I would agree with you that their take was and is wrong.

I understand your crituqe on his playmkaing as well, citing his assist totals throughout his career and this year in the NHL. But I don't think the method you're using to come to that conlcusion for this year is all that accurate. You again cite his low raw totals (pace for 22 points), but in my previous post I tried to provide some context for that. I mean, 0 seconardy assists really doesn't have anything to say against a player's playmaking ability. His primary assists /60 is 9th on the team, ahead of Miller, Pearson, Boeser, Pettersson, Höglander. To me, it looks like the points are coming, as the underlying stats are good, they just haven't come yet. And I think that's why he isn't producing more at the moment.

Good post. As for the bolded, I understand your argument I just didn't comment on it because I don't find it to be *that* meaningful. Like obviously it's very unlikely that he'll be a career 20 point player in the NHL. His numbers WILL improve, it's just a matter of time. But the question is to what extent will they improve? My take is that it's equally unlikely that he'll be a 60-70 point player and most likely will be closer to 40-50 points on average. It seems that at least some people in this thread would agree with that, which makes it all the more confusing to me as to why there's so much excitement around this player, but to each their own I guess.

 

[Peasy]

Is Podkolzin still really living off of his Hlinka performance lol?

Take away that performance and I don't think people talk about him with this insane upside. Said it during his draft year, and nothing has really changed since then. He will be like a Blake Coleman/Zach Hyman type of player. Maybe he has a career year or two that is better than those 2, but thats about it imo.

And of course there is nothing wrong with that. Those types of players are very valuable and help a team win. It just seems like some peoples perspectives of him have been extremely skewed.

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

Good post. As for the bolded, I understand your argument I just didn't comment on it because I don't find it to be *that* meaningful. Like obviously it's very unlikely that he'll be a career 20 point player in the NHL. His numbers WILL improve, it's just a matter of time. But the question is to what extent will they improve? My take is that it's equally unlikely that he'll be a 60-70 point player and most likely will be closer to 40-50 points on average. It seems that at least some people in this thread would agree with that, which makes it all the more confusing to me as to why there's so much excitement around this player, but to each their own I guess.

Hehe, it's too bad we don't live in the same place as this seems like a perfect beer wager In place a buying a round though I'll put my worthless HFBoards scouting reputation on the line and say he becomes a 20g 40a player regularly in his prime. Feel free to call me out in 5 years time if he only becomes like a 15g 25a guy

I think part of the excitement of Podkolzin is that he looks to be a playoff performer who elevates his games come the post-season and that seems like the biggest piece missing from the Canucks line-up. They have a really good top 6, Hughes on the backend, and a great starter in Demko. Having a guy who can perform in the playoffs and excels at that kind of game (which clearly happened in the KHL playoffs last year) can really create a buzz for a franchise starved for a cup. It looks like they have all the pieces now, they just need to have them all hit. Or, at least, I assume this is why Canucks fans are so interested?

For me, he's always been a very unorthodox prospect and a fun player to follow. I think because of that there has been a lot of opinions and, like yourself, I'm interested too to see how he ends up and will keep following him. It feels like he could develop in any number of ways, and I think that's also what draws people in as well. That's what makes this thread so entertaining

 

[Artorius Horus T]

I dont see 70 point upside here to be honest. Hes going to have a long career and hes going to be a useful piece. Its so strange, at times it just doesnt seem like he has the puck skills/speed to have that offensive upside then he shows flashes of this high end skill thats like where did that come from.

I see him turning into a pretty consistant 20 - 20 guy with his best years scoring 50+ points but impacting the game in many other areas. He's a gamer for sure.

Thank you, honest and unbiased Canucks fan opinion.

284 Russians have played in the NHL.
25 different Russian players have had 70+ point seasons.
That's 8% - the absolute best of the best, hall of famers, future and present

Podkolzin has never shown enough offensive skill, junior or pro
to score 70 points in the best league in the world vs best players.

Hey anything is possible and i'll gladly be wrong but,
unlikely that he'll ever get 70

 

[sting101]

Good post. As for the bolded, I understand your argument I just didn't comment on it because I don't find it to be *that* meaningful. Like obviously it's very unlikely that he'll be a career 20 point player in the NHL. His numbers WILL improve, it's just a matter of time. But the question is to what extent will they improve? My take is that it's equally unlikely that he'll be a 60-70 point player and most likely will be closer to 40-50 points on average. It seems that at least some people in this thread would agree with that, which makes it all the more confusing to me as to why there's so much excitement around this player, but to each their own I guess.

Rufus covered it mostly but seems as though you have created some weird argument with yourself to gotcha random kids who hype prospects and players during their pre NHL arrivals. Trying to diminish Canuck fans excitement is another odd troll thing to do knowing that the fans mostly at this point following in here are Canuck fans who are starting to get excited as he breaks out in small increments. Why would it be "confusing"? Such an odd thing to say

Nobody who are respected Canuck posters has gone off about Podkolzin being a top line offensive playmaker and what your saying about Button is leaving out the part where he compared him to a "lesser skilled JT Miller but able to affect the game more in other areas" or "Jere Lehtinen who used to ride shotgun with Modano and do a lot of the defensive and forechecking work that was able to make his top line a success."

What Canuck fans are excited about. He is a play driver, He is a demon on the forecheck, he is super strong on pucks and he is super skilled just not in a Marner or Pettersson way where he has elite vision, deception and plays east west because that's not how he plays. VP is a north south bull so yes he probably wont direct a PP from the half wall but he will at some point be in the bumper or at the net doing his thing.

Being able to win puck battles and get to the inside against heavy defense is exactly why Canuck fans are excited because no matter how skilled your team is unless you have some guys who are good at getting pucks into the dirty areas and being able to do something with it you wont be winning anything. His SKA playoffs just add context to this

A lot of the Canucks scoring problems this year are exactly that. Lots of skill but other than JT Miller it's been a huge assortment of perimeter play without someone on the inside that can create the disruption or have the strength and skill necessary to convert anything inside the house. Enter Podkolzin, enter excitement...this is not confusing?

It's pretty obvious watching Podkolzin from the start of the year where he was barely playing and tasked with learning to manage pucks forward that he was obviously a bit struck by the lack of time space and speed. Trying to not make mistakes learning english and adjusting to a new team and culture is a real thing and he's making quality progress. Using his stats to date as any kind of metric is pretty much nonsense but feel free to pat yourself on the back because you predicted he wasn't going to be a impact star at 20. Almost zero Canuck fans who followed him closely expected another Calder candidate.

I've read lots of your prospect analysis before and generally i think you have some good perspectives but this is a odd stance to cap Podkolzin's ceiling and say you cant understand why anyone would be excited? You know exactly what your doing trying to diminish Podkolzin by comparing him to Hyman/Coleman that took till 25/26 to reach their peaks 10 yrs vs 5 yrs is a massive difference Why not Timo Meier who many said these same things his first couple seasons before he broke out?

At 10 Podkolzin was a very good pick and as Canuck fans and fans of Podkolzin there is lots to be excited about it's not hard to understand.

 

[ijuka]

At 10 Podkolzin was a very good pick and as Canuck fans and fans of Podkolzin there is lots to be excited about it's not hard to understand.

But how is this the case? For him to be a very good pick at 10 he pretty much needs to have outperformed people picked after him. However, there's half a dozen first rounders picked after who've had very similar NHL careers thus far, and also someone like Matt Boldy - a fellow LHS winger and hence compatitor - who was picked right after and looks to be clearly outclassing Podkolzing at this point.

So what justification is there for calling him a very good pick? He's not a bust thus far - that's about it.

 

[sting101]

But how is this the case? For him to be a very good pick at 10 he pretty much needs to have outperformed people picked after him. However, there's half a dozen first rounders picked after who've had very similar NHL careers thus far, and also someone like Matt Boldy - a fellow LHS winger and hence compatitor - who was picked right after and looks to be clearly outclassing Podkolzing at this point.

So what justification is there for calling him a very good pick? He's not a bust thus far - that's about it.

I think you need to re adjust how you look at draft picks. If you pick at 10 and get the 10th best player in that draft then you have met the expectation. The way your presenting this is that every player except Leon Draisaitl and Ekblad would be considered bad picks in 2014 because Point and Pastrnak were still on the board

I have zero issues looking at him as the 10th best player or better at this time. Progression is not linear and pts are not everything but admittingly is the largest measure of success unless were talking Slavin type shut down defenseman or goalies. Pod was a bit of a safe pick at the time but he also meets and organizational need. I would caution at anointing anything yet. Last year many thought Caufield was gonna walk in and easily win the Calder

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

If he works on his hands this off-season look out.