Prospect Info: Rutger McGroarty, 2022 NHL Draft, #14 Overall

[Guardian17]

 

[voyageur]

Interesting that Chevy has not been able to get a good enough deal on this asset yet. I thought this one was going to go a bit quicker but Chevy is a grinder that’s for sure. I have learned to be patient with Chevy on gun to the head trades though.

Too bad Buffalo scooped up McLeod on us (this is why I am comfortable waiting a bit)

Jets are sitting on a good prospect. If the organization thought he needed AHL time, they may see him as behind the development curve of Brad Lambert, who according to Mark Morrison has brought some swagger to this year's development camp.

I wonder if Lambert isn't the key to making Ehlers rethink his position in the organization, where he gets to be a mentor to the kid, like Wheeler was for him. Then you have some actual chemistry starting to develop between Lambert and Barlow, and suddenly you are looking at 7 forwards competing for top 6 spots by perhaps as early as 2025, if Ehlers re-signs.

Mc Groarty by the simple development process could get left out of the equation.

But if he tears up the NCAA this year his value only goes up, being closer to the NHL...

If Chevy needs to trade to improve this team, it might be not be a 1st he has to put on the table as his only chip. Mc Groarty might be a more valuable asset to making a move.

 

[Heldig]

Prediction: Rutger NOT traded this year and instead goes back to college. Traded next off season (not at TDL either). Not saying it's what I'd do or what's best for the org but IMHO if this was gonna happen, it'd have happened already.

This season's trade deadline - offer Rutger instead of a 2025 1st for a player for the playoffs (assuming the Jets are in them).

 

[snowkiddin]

This season's trade deadline - offer Rutger instead of a 2025 1st for a player for the playoffs (assuming the Jets are in them).

You’d think Rutger would have more value than a late 1st. Rutger was taken middle of the first, has improved his draft stock, is developing well, and is closer to the NHL than a prospect being taken in the upcoming draft.

I would hope any trade at the deadline reflects all this.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Are we sure that McGroarty would sign with another NHL team and forego the next college season? Few teams can guarantee an NHL roster spot, so maybe he's content with whatever income he can generate in the NCAA and wait a year. In that case, he's not really tradeable at this point. That might also explain why Chevy and the Jets soured on him. They didn't want him to return to college.

Could be. But there are quite a few non-PO teams that could guarantee him a place.

Does he think it will be that much easier to get that guaranteed spot a year from now?

To me, he is showing a lack of faith in himself. I know that doesn't seem like the personality he has shown, but there it is.

Jets have a top 6 vacancy. It could be filled by a rookie - Lambert, Chibrikov or McGroarty. Or by moving someone up from the bottom 6, which would create an opening there. So McG is not saying he can't beat out a good vet. He is saying he is not confident he could beat out Lambert and Chibrikov. And yet he considers himself to be so NHL ready that he should be guaranteed a spot on the roster.

Doesn't make sense.

Is the new NCAA rule allowing athletes to earn money going to be a big factor going forward?

 

[MelikeJets]

Could be. But there are quite a few non-PO teams that could guarantee him a place.

Does he think it will be that much easier to get that guaranteed spot a year from now?

To me, he is showing a lack of faith in himself. I know that doesn't seem like the personality he has shown, but there it is.

Jets have a top 6 vacancy. It could be filled by a rookie - Lambert, Chibrikov or McGroarty. Or by moving someone up from the bottom 6, which would create an opening there. So McG is not saying he can't beat out a good vet. He is saying he is not confident he could beat out Lambert and Chibrikov. And yet he considers himself to be so NHL ready that he should be guaranteed a spot on the roster.

Doesn't make sense.

Is the new NCAA rule allowing athletes to earn money going to be a big factor going forward?

Yes I believe NCAA players will continue to be a problem. It will take a lot of due diligence on scouts and GMs before drafting one. Personally from a Winnipeg perspective I'd now stay away from these players. We need guys who WANT to play in the NHL with ANY team that drafts them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

perhaps verbal agreement or movement of a current NHL player(s)

the Jets Fwd group is essentially the same to start 22-23. Perhaps there is opportunity on the 4th line for Rutger if Kupari goes down, and/or Gus or something. But i think there's clearly no spot in the top-9.

HF hates when prospects are on the 4th line & i am guessing 1st round caliber prospects of his stature don't see much value there playing under 10mins a night and banished certain points in the game either.

i can see him probably wanting to see a spot actually open up (NHL player moved) so the TC competition is actually a legitimate competition b/w him and the other younger guys. IIRC Morgan Barron was told last year or 2 years ago in the Summer he was going to be a bottom-6er prior to even playing much for the Jets, or Perfetti being told no matter how well he played he was going to be in the AHL (believe this was 21-22). I think the the roster is pretty much set already so just a verbal agreement isn't strong enough.

What am I missing?
We have 5 in the top 6 if Ehlers stays.

KC - Scheif - Vilardi
Perfetti - xxx - Ehlers
Names can be xxx but he is just a placeholder.

Prediction: Rutger NOT traded this year and instead goes back to college. Traded next off season (not at TDL either). Not saying it's what I'd do or what's best for the org but IMHO if this was gonna happen, it'd have happened already.

Could be. More likely with each day that passes.
So is starting the season with an unsigned Ehlers.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets are using the same playbook as they used with Scheifele and Hellebuyck last year. Big speculation they wanted out and wouldn’t sign with the Jets. Chevy shops them around a bit, with a really high price tag. No one bites. Then Chevy goes back to them, tells them that the Jets value them a lot more than any other team does, bends a little bit and eventually signs them.

I could see a similar path with Rutger. Imagine Rutger hearing that the Wild would rather have Buium than him.

The situations are quite different. But we don't actually know what happened last off-season.

It looked to me that what was needed was to convince Scheif and Helle that Jets would truly try to compete, particularly Helle. The way to convince one was to sign the other. The timing and identical contracts suggests that they were negotiating with them as though they were a pair. If either had refused to sign, the other would have also.

Good point in your last paragraph though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You’d think Rutger would have more value than a late 1st. Rutger was taken middle of the first, has improved his draft stock, is developing well, and is closer to the NHL than a prospect being taken in the upcoming draft.

I would hope any trade at the deadline reflects all this.

You beat me to it - and said it better.

 

[ps241]

Jets are sitting on a good prospect. If the organization thought he needed AHL time, they may see him as behind the development curve of Brad Lambert, who according to Mark Morrison has brought some swagger to this year's development camp.

I wonder if Lambert isn't the key to making Ehlers rethink his position in the organization, where he gets to be a mentor to the kid, like Wheeler was for him. Then you have some actual chemistry starting to develop between Lambert and Barlow, and suddenly you are looking at 7 forwards competing for top 6 spots by perhaps as early as 2025, if Ehlers re-signs.

Mc Groarty by the simple development process could get left out of the equation.

But if he tears up the NCAA this year his value only goes up, being closer to the NHL...

If Chevy needs to trade to improve this team, it might be not be a 1st he has to put on the table as his only chip. Mc Groarty might be a more valuable asset to making a move.

I have no feel on this deal or his value currently. Sounds like he was pegged at #13 (Minnesota) pick in the first round until Buium fell to #12 and the Wild traded up and pounced. Although that was a rumor it seemed like there were multiple sources on that one. Since then I have not heard any approximate valuation to the point I will have to wait to see what transpires.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yes I believe NCAA players will continue to be a problem. It will take a lot of due diligence on scouts and GMs before drafting one. Personally from a Winnipeg perspective I'd now stay away from these players. We need guys who WANT to play in the NHL with ANY team that drafts them.

You also have to be careful to not put too many classes of player on your do not draft list or you end up taking 2nd rd talent with 1st rd picks.

I wonder how Jets might do if they abandon the pretense of being a draft & develop team and become a trading team (trading for young players without NTC-NMC of course).

In addition to trading older players, also trade picks and prospects for now players. Trade players at the TD for futures. Trade futures at the draft for players. Aim for players under team control for as long as possible. Become a buy low, sell high kind of team.

 

[DRW204]

What am I missing?
We have 5 in the top 6 if Ehlers stays.

KC - Scheif - Vilardi
Perfetti - xxx - Ehlers
Names can be xxx but he is just a placeholder.



Could be. More likely with each day that passes.
So is starting the season with an unsigned Ehlers.

idk what you're missing. but it seems simple. look at the roster to start the 22-23 season, & in January or something prior to the Monahan acquisition. Who is gone from the Fwd group? maybe a trade w/ ehlers opens up a spot, but he is still here & under contract, so not going to pencil him off the team till it actually happens.

not sure what "just a placeholder" is supposed to signify. if he's in that spot that means no top-6 opening. he's fully capable of playing there, & the Jets were probably at their best when he was. was he not "just a placeholder" last year? is XXX supposed McGroarty? what are you trying to say even. maybe start at square-1 and look at the Fwd group to start game-1 last season, & the current group on Capfriendly while it's still up, and see who is gone from the team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have no feel on this deal or his value currently. Sounds like he was pegged at #13 (Minnesota) pick in the first round until Buium fell to #12 and the Wild traded up and pounced. Although that was a rumor it seemed like there were multiple sources on that one. Since then I have not heard any approximate valuation to the point I will have to wait to see what transpires.

We don't know what else, if anything, might have been added to #13.

If that was it, the value would be disappointing. He was taken 14th 2 years ago in a stronger draft class. So 13 this year would have been trading down.

Hard to get too precise in figuring out that value. If we could have traded McG for a 1st I would have liked to get Dickenson, who went at 11 or Yakemchuck, who went 7. With the 13th pick we could have gotten Jiricek. I don't see any C in the 10+ range who jump out at me.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

idk what you're missing. but it seems simple. look at the roster to start the 22-23 season, & in January or something prior to the Monahan acquisition. Who is gone from the Fwd group? maybe a trade w/ ehlers opens up a spot, but he is still here & under contract, so not going to pencil him off the team till it actually happens.

not sure what "just a placeholder" is supposed to signify. if he's in that spot that means no top-6 opening. he's fully capable of playing there, & the Jets were probably at their best when he was. was he not "just a placeholder" last year? is XXX supposed McGroarty? what are you trying to say even. maybe start at square-1 and look at the Fwd group to start game-1 last season, & the current group on Capfriendly while it's still up, and see who is gone from the team.

"just a placeholder" signifies that he is not a legit top 6 C and also that he is not a long term solution.

There is a top 6 vacancy. A player has to beat out Namestnikov to get it. It gets a little tougher if that player can't play C. He might show better on a wing than Names does at C but that would still leave the question of who will play 2C. Hypothetically, if McG could push Names down then Perfetti or Vilardi would need to be moved to 2C.

Bottom line is that there is a vacancy in the top 6. The fact that the same vacancy existed last year proves what, exactly?

 

[DRW204]

"just a placeholder" signifies that he is not a legit top 6 C and also that he is not a long term solution.

There is a top 6 vacancy. A player has to beat out Namestnikov to get it. It gets a little tougher if that player can't play C. He might show better on a wing than Names does at C but that would still leave the question of who will play 2C. Hypothetically, if McG could push Names down then Perfetti or Vilardi would need to be moved to 2C.

Bottom line is that there is a vacancy in the top 6. The fact that the same vacancy existed last year proves what, exactly?

I don't care about long term solutions when the discussion is about the line up for next year. There wasn't a vacancy last year, Namestnikov and later Monahan player there. I am not interested in dueling hypotheticals with you. The lineup is the same as last year's and there's no spot for McGroarty. McGroartys reluctant to sign here showcases that.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't care about long term solutions when the discussion is about the line up for next year. There wasn't a vacancy last year, Namestnikov and later Monahan player there. I am not interested in dueling hypotheticals with you. The lineup is the same as last year's and there's no spot for McGroarty. McGroartys reluctant to sign here showcases that.

Okay, forget hypotheticals. The fact some placeholder is in a team's roster spot, any team, any spot, does not mean there is no vacancy. Do you think that in order to have a vacancy the Jets would need to go with just 4 skaters any time that line is on the ice? No one would take the FO? If they didn't have Namestnikov someone else would line up there. Maybe Kupari. Maybe Barron. Maybe bring up someone from the Moose. Doesn't mean there is no vacancy.

Jets have had a vacancy at 2C since the 7th game of the 2020 season except when it was filled by PLD for 2.5 seasons. You could also say they had a vacancy for a couple of years before that because they kept renting 2Cs at the TD.

So, right now, there is a vacancy at 2C that will probably be filled on a temporary basis by Namestnikov. There is no telling how long that may last.

 

[Heldig]

Interesting seeing so many of this year's first rounders signing already. Almost like the tide is shifting and young guns want to get paid right away.

 

[gojetsgo]

Seamus Casey on the #NJDevils’ improved RHD depth:

“If you see a guy signed or a guy drafted, it shouldn’t faze you because if you thought it was going to be easy at any point, it’s probably not the right league for you.”

 

[Buffdog]

Seamus Casey on the #NJDevils’ improved RHD depth:

“If you see a guy signed or a guy drafted, it shouldn’t faze you because if you thought it was going to be easy at any point, it’s probably not the right league for you.”

Trade Rutger for him lol

Great attitude

 

[MardyBum]

Trade Rutger for him lol

Great attitude

Their F core could use a bit more jam too, I'll settle for a Nemec or Casey I suppose

 

[KingBogo]

Seamus Casey on the #NJDevils’ improved RHD depth:

“If you see a guy signed or a guy drafted, it shouldn’t faze you because if you thought it was going to be easy at any point, it’s probably not the right league for you.”

What a breath of fresh air in this age of entitlement.

 

[Guardian17]

 

[CorgisPer60]

Drag the little sociopath, Cheveldayoff.

 

[GJF]

Lol that is definitely a direct front against McG

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Yes I believe NCAA players will continue to be a problem. It will take a lot of due diligence on scouts and GMs before drafting one. Personally from a Winnipeg perspective I'd now stay away from these players. We need guys who WANT to play in the NHL with ANY team that drafts them.

“Want to play in the NHL” means getting drafted/signed by a team that incorporates rookies.