Prospect Info: Rutger McGroarty, 2022 NHL Draft, #14 Overall

[GJF]

Interesting comment on Murat's article from J.M.:

Diving into the psychology of competitive youth sports, parents and children may help. Mike McIntyre did a great job describing his [McGroarty's] hockey journey. He frequently travelled, played in the famous Brick tournament against the best 9 yearolds in Canada, when he was 8. His family moved for his development, his connections got him invited to train with Barbara underhill. This kids support system, has not spared any expense or chance at giving him anything but the optimal opportunity to succeed. These are not the types of folks who are comfortable giving up control. High level hockey is increasingly becoming quite elitist. He is so close right now to paying off all the sacrifices his family has made for him the last 15 years.. they want an nhl opportunity when they feel like he is ready to make that step and they have little reason to believe the jets will make space for him when they think he is ready. It may very well be that he is the 14th best forward in the organization when the time is right for him, or the 11th best forward but exempt from waivers and stuck in the AHL.​

​

Imagine never having to compromise on your development path, and now you’re 20 facing what you perceive to be the most critical point in your development, where some guys thrive and many more flop.. How could the above scenarios be acceptable to mcgroarty and his family? It’s not.​

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The better question is how much should nhl teams be expected to accommodate their prospects who share this mindframe? They may soon be the norm. At what point do you just accept we have to play this kid and accept some lumps because he’s the future? Top 10, top 5, top 2 pick? Ideally you want kids who are selfless, no ego, don’t think twice about making sacrifices for the team, but if this is no longer realistic to ask of your blue chip North American prospects, then something’s gotta give.​

Murat sure knows his writing. Great POV piece.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Some nice pieces I'd like on CBJ and OTT, from the sharks it's probably picks unless we get that D prospect from the Meier trade

SJS have some nice looking prospects that could be involved.

 

[cbcwpg]

So lets say the Jets had guaranteed him a spot to get him to sign a contract, at least verbally, and then it turns out after training camp next season and a few games, he just isn't ready. So the Jets send him to the Moose. Then what? Two seconds after being sent to the Moose he's demanding a trade, because , well he was promised a NHL spot, and the Jets lied to him in his mind. Yet he's being sent down because of his poor play.

Just a scenario, but it's a no win for the Jets. This is why NO prospect can be promised or guaranteed anything, If you start down that path, you can't win as an organization. Other prospects will see these guarantees and demand them as well.

And I don't give a rats ass what sacrifices you or your family made to get you here. That was your choice, not the NHL team. You want to play in the NHL, then you earn it.

 

[buggs]

Interesting comment on Murat's article from J.M.:

Diving into the psychology of competitive youth sports, parents and children may help. Mike McIntyre did a great job describing his [McGroarty's] hockey journey. He frequently travelled, played in the famous Brick tournament against the best 9 yearolds in Canada, when he was 8. His family moved for his development, his connections got him invited to train with Barbara underhill. This kids support system, has not spared any expense or chance at giving him anything but the optimal opportunity to succeed. These are not the types of folks who are comfortable giving up control. High level hockey is increasingly becoming quite elitist. He is so close right now to paying off all the sacrifices his family has made for him the last 15 years.. they want an nhl opportunity when they feel like he is ready to make that step and they have little reason to believe the jets will make space for him when they think he is ready. It may very well be that he is the 14th best forward in the organization when the time is right for him, or the 11th best forward but exempt from waivers and stuck in the AHL.​

​

Imagine never having to compromise on your development path, and now you’re 20 facing what you perceive to be the most critical point in your development, where some guys thrive and many more flop.. How could the above scenarios be acceptable to mcgroarty and his family? It’s not.​

​

The better question is how much should nhl teams be expected to accommodate their prospects who share this mindframe? They may soon be the norm. At what point do you just accept we have to play this kid and accept some lumps because he’s the future? Top 10, top 5, top 2 pick? Ideally you want kids who are selfless, no ego, don’t think twice about making sacrifices for the team, but if this is no longer realistic to ask of your blue chip North American prospects, then something’s gotta give.​

Something's gotta give?

Cool, I'll suggest these kids are welcome to dictate their outcomes so long as not reporting to your drafting team extends your RFA status by two years. Put it in the next collective agreement.

Sure, kids don't want to go to perceived situations where they don't want to live or may not thrive. But there will be a lot less kids playing if the markets shrink because they don't want to play in any Canadian market or Buffalo/Columbus/San Jose, etc.

Every kid coming out has an ego that is huge. Yeah, they might not be a top 3 pick, but it's only because {insert excuse} happened. These kids are really, really good. Even the kids being drafted in the 7th round. What they don't get is this is the last level and they are starting over and need to prove themselves all over again. Knock that door down and you win. Don't knock it down and maybe you aren't that ready. There's a blow to your ego. But really it just might be reality saying 'hello'.

Unfortunately we don't know what the actual conversations were. If Chevy said hey," we'll sign you and bring you in for the last game, so long as we have clinched home ice; then next season we'll give you minimum 9 games (or whatever it is) to prove yourself but no guarantees because you have to play your way onto the team or go to the Moose" then I'm on Chevy's side. But maybe that didn't happen and something else soured McGroarty. Was looking forward to the kid being in a Jets jersey.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Again there’s some who believe he’s a sure thing for regular duty.
I don’t know enough about him but I was one of those who was happy with his selection.
My guess is he doesn’t see the same opportunity to play in this lineup based on contracts in place and the teams track record with prospects ( that is probably agent and or family)
I understand some of HF being put off by what appears to be entitlement but I also see his side as well.
2-3 years in the AHL is probably what the club would do.
This club has shown in the past that they prefer the waiver wire or old vets over inserting the younger players,
Is that the coaches or GM or both!
All I’m saying is I don’t think he’s wrong in thinking that he’ll languish in the minors for a long period of time.
I don’t know that obviously but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

If he comes as advertised, or even close, I can't see him "languishing" in the minors for long. But 1 full year in the AHL is not unlikely. He is within his rights to balk at that.

JMO, but I think he could easily be accommodated in the NHL this year by the Jets. I think the Jets could have been a better team the last couple of years if they had been bringing in more young players. That means tolerating some rookie mistakes but it also means benefiting from the energy and enthusiasm the young players bring.

A rookie like McG would make mistakes, especially early in the season. But after 50-60 games he would be better than some of the TD rental vets. And he would be a lot cheaper, leaving cap for better purposes than overpaying some vets.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Interesting. Here are some pieces I'm interested and think are realistic from each team.

CBJ:
Laine - As part of a bigger deal potentially. Laine's value is so low we should be able to get him for cheaper than an A Prospect. But if there are some other parts involved and he's an add I'm okay with that.
Sillinger - Middle 6 C that can potentially fill our 2C needs.
Jiricek - Big body RHD that we so desperately need.
2024 4th overall - We can add a pretty nice piece with this, should be lots of options at 4. Likely won't step in for awhile though.
Mateychuk - Great puck rushing LHD that could cement our left side for years to come. Solid kid too.

SJS:
2024 14th overall - I'd want more on top of this.
Mukhamadullin - Real big and rangy LHD. Cements the top 4 on the left side potentially.
Grandlund - With an extension in place he could step in at 2C for us and solidify that spot a bit but he is 32 turning 33 soon.

OTT:
2024 7th overall - Not as good as 4 but certainly still solid.
Chychrun - Solid vet LHD that can play the right side well enough. Allows us to run 2 solid pairs or stack one. Would want an extension in place though. We likely need to add.
Pinto - Good size C that can step in as 2C. We likely need to add here as well.
Greig - Solid playoff type winger for the middle 6.



Ultimately it's up to him to force the orgs hand. Connor, Ehlers, Scheif, Trouba, Morrissey, Laine and many more ultimately all payed their dues. Some might have been held out a little bit more than they should have but that's never really hurt a prospect as much as rushing them does.

SJS also have some F prospects who are progressing toward NHL ready. What do you think of Bystedt, Edstrom and Musty? 2 Cs and a W.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

If he comes as advertised, or even close, I can't see him "languishing" in the minors for long. But 1 full year in the AHL is not unlikely. He is within his rights to balk at that.

JMO, but I think he could easily be accommodated in the NHL this year by the Jets. I think the Jets could have been a better team the last couple of years if they had been bringing in more young players. That means tolerating some rookie mistakes but it also means benefiting from the energy and enthusiasm the young players bring.

A rookie like McG would make mistakes, especially early in the season. But after 50-60 games he would be better than some of the TD rental vets. And he would be a lot cheaper, leaving cap for better purposes than overpaying some vets.

For a guy that doesn't like when people make assumptions. You are making a lot of assumptions

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

For a guy that doesn't like when people make assumptions. You are making a lot of assumptions

Not sure what you are getting at. I started with the IF he comes as advertised. That is not an assumption. It is a conditional statement.

I moved on to a JMO. Again, not an assumption. I could go deeper into the thinking behind that opinion but it has really all been covered.

I do speculate about what might have been. I guess that could be called an assumption.

It is an assumption that a high end rookie will make more mistakes in his first batch of games than in future games but that is a pattern followed by most rookies. So I think it is a fair assumption.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I haven't bothered to read any media speculation about potential landing spots, but my spidey senses are telling me he does not want to play for any Canadian team. Increasingly, high end American college players think they can choose their home country to spend the prime years of their young adult life. I would be very wary about drafting top-15 NCAA players if I were a Canadian GM, especially in a smaller market.

I really don't think that's it. Gauthier wanted out of Philly.

I believe that it is about him wanting to play in the NHL immediately. That is what has been reported and it makes sense. It doesn't require any reading between the lines or speculation.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Not sure what you are getting at. I started with the IF he comes as advertised. That is not an assumption. It is a conditional statement.

I moved on to a JMO. Again, not an assumption. I could go deeper into the thinking behind that opinion but it has really all been covered.

I do speculate about what might have been. I guess that could be called an assumption.

It is an assumption that a high end rookie will make more mistakes in his first batch of games than in future games but that is a pattern followed by most rookies. So I think it is a fair assumption.

The assumption is that we would be better with younger players/rookies in the lineup.

How many rookies were in Edmonton and Florida's lineup this year? Zero.

I think there is a fine line between easing rookies in and just tossing a bunch into the lineup and expecting them to win

 

[WolfHouse]

44 pages...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Could absolutely see something like ehlers+mcgroarty for jiracek+sillinger

That value is getting very close, I think. Could probably make arguments for either side to have to make a small add.

I could see adding Laine to that, as an added benefit to CBJ. He is a cap dump at this point.

Laine has bonus payments of 2 mil due July 1, 24 and July 1, 25 so max retention would be 3.55 mil leaving a cap hit of 5.15 if I have figured it out properly.

Adding Laine would require something more from CBJ.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The assumption is that we would be better with younger players/rookies in the lineup.

How many rookies were in Edmonton and Florida's lineup this year? Zero.

I think there is a fine line between easing rookies in and just tossing a bunch into the lineup and expecting them to win

I'm not suggesting a youth movement. I'm suggesting easing them in - on a regular basis. But if we had added 1 (more) young player each year for the past few years they would have been integrated into the team by this year's PO. Only this year's would still be a rookie and he would be a rookie with a full season behind him by PO time.

This could also apply to the way Perfetti was handled late in the season and for the PO. Hard to imagine we could have been worse with him in the lineup. With the TD acquisitions, I'm not sure who he would have bumped but there were plenty who did not perform well.

 

[Hobble]

Based on McG’s style of game, could he not easily be fitted into the 3rd or 4th line for some energy/physicality/offence in the bottom six, before gaining experience and graduating to the top 6?

Based on everything we’ve heard, and his potential, I don’t see how we wouldn’t want him on the team over some of our other lower end pieces.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Its a weird suggestion that the Jets haven't "eased" rookies into the lineup when that is exactly what they have been doing

2022/23 - Perfetti(20) 51 games/Gus(22) -46 games/Heinola 10 games
2021/22 - Perfetti(19) 18 games/Heinola(21) 12 games/Samberg(22) 15 games/Barron(22) 14 games /Ves(22) 53 games
2020/21 - Heinola(19) 5 games/ Gus(20) 4 games/Ves(21)12 games/PLD (22)41 games/Stanley(22)37 games
2019/20 - Heinola(18) 8 games/Gus(19) 22 games/Laine(21) 68 games/ Luoto(21) 16 games/ Connor(22) 76 games/ Roslovic(22) 71 games/Niku(22) 17 games
2018/19 - Ves(19) 5 games/Laine(20) 82 games/Connor(21) 82 games/ Roslovic(21) 77 games/ Niku(22) 30 games/ Ehlers(22) 62 games/Lemieux(22) 44 games/Apples(22) 36 gams
'

I can keep going back and showing it but its just weird that this meme that we are not incorporating young players into lineup is exactly what we have been doing and we do it so well we either churn out star NHL players or trade them for NHL players.

 

[Buffdog]

Based on McG’s style of game, could he not easily be fitted into the 3rd or 4th line for some energy/physicality/offence in the bottom six, before gaining experience and graduating to the top 6?

Based on everything we’ve heard, and his potential, I don’t see how we wouldn’t want him on the team over some of our other lower end pieces.

I guess it depends on how you want to develop him and what you want him to turn into

If you want him to be a top 6 guy with PP usage, then it's best to give him big minutes and special teams time on the Moose

This conversation about how to develop/integrate young players is interesting to me. Last season was my daughter's first in U Sport. Part of her reason for choosing the school she did was because of the role her coach offered her coming in. She started at 2C but was moved to 2LW partially through the season because she was just a little overmatched vs the older girls, and his rationale was that by taking the defensive responsibilities in her own end off her plate, she could focus on generating more offense (sound familiar? Perfetti?). At the end of season meeting, he told her she'd be moving back to C next season now that she has a year of experience. She was also on 2PP

Contrast that with how the Bisons integrate their young players. Many don't see ice at all, and if they do it's not regular and on the 3rd/4th lines. Coaches want to make every skilled, young player a grinder first

Right now the U of M is having an impossible time attracting the top female players in the province because they know this is what will happen to them. It turns the highly recruited girls like my daughter off

The contrast in philosophies is obviously different at that level becaue player turnover is part of the game. But if you want a girl to dominate in their 3rd, 4th and 5th years, you can't just try to graduate them from an4th line grinder role to the top line/PP and expect success. You have to let them grow into their role by doing it, surrounded with solid vets

With all that said, had my daughter gone into a slump last season like Cole did, it would have been 100% reasonable and acceptable for the coach to shuffle her down/out of the line up. It happened to one rookie, who came back in and contributed afterwards

 

[gojetsgo]

mcintyre on wst
-mcgroatry lot of people in his ear
-thinks he is getting some bad advice
-didn't like that he may have had to go to the ahl
-relationship took a turn after the frozen 4
-said he talked to someone connected to his camp and 3 teams to keep on eye on are buffalo, islanders and bluejackets

 

[Buffdog]

mcintyre on wst
-mcgroatry lot of people in his ear
-think he is getting some bad advice
-didn't like that he may have had to go to the ahl
-relationship took a turn after the frozen 4
-said he talked to someone connected to his camp and 3 teams to keep on eye on are buffalo, islanders and bluejackets

That sums up exactly what I was thinking happened and the timeline

Buffalo and Columbus have some nice pieces

 

[abax44]

And I don't give a rats ass what sacrifices you or your family made to get you here. That was your choice, not the NHL team. You want to play in the NHL, then you earn it.

Right? They could only make these "sacrifices" because they were already a well-off family, from my understanding.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Buffalo - Kulich and a 2nd
Islanders - 2024 Tampa Bay 1st + 2nd LA 2024
CBJ - Mateychuk + 2nd

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Jiricek would fit our needs perfectly on paper but it seems like a bit of a stretch. It does sound like he wasn’t happy with how he was treated last season. What are your thoughts on


What are your thoughts on Mateychuk? He looked very dynamic to me in the Momorial cup in a small sample size of me watching him.



I mean comparatively to McGroarty. Rutger has gone back to college twice to so if he went strait to the NHL now it would be what Scheifele did timeline wise and not spending time in the AHL. Rutger isn’t fresh off the draft floor he has been developing really nicely.

Anyways I won’t go to far down the rabbit hole showing his “desired” path is not fast historically in the 2.0 era. The kid is on his way out so it doesn’t matter that much.

I'm not sure that Jiricek is all that much of a stretch. In a redraft he might slip a couple of spots. Not out of the top 10 but maybe down just a bit. Meanwhile McGroarty has risen, or should have. When looking at his scoring this year keep in mind that he was injured. He just made it back in time for the WJC and wasn't 100% yet. I think the injury suppressed his totals at least a bit, maybe more.

At the time of his drafts doubts were raised about his skating. I don't think it was bad. Just not a strength. The reports I have seen here and the little I actually saw of him indicated that he has improved his skating.

Add all of that plus his obvious intangibles and I think he gets into the top 10 in a redraft, or very close to it. So he and Jiricek might be separated by only a couple of spots.

You have to consider Jiricek playing a premium position at RD so maybe Jets need to make a small add to even it out. I give them Stanley.

In a package deal including Ehlers and Sillinger I say Jiricek > McGroarty, Ehlers >>> Sillinger. Considering ages and contract status I still add Stanley.

Those are obviously pretty rough valuations but it is certainly close enough to justify serious consideration both ways.

Edit: Can't add multi-quote after posting. Try this: Ha! Worked.

I would take that in a heartbeat. Even if we added a pick or two.

Yup - though I wouldn't add because of raw value. I would add for fit.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wonder what the issue is with the Jets. We have a hole in the top 6 even if we don't move Ehlers. If we do, we have 2. Are they gonna fill it either through FA or Lambert?

Is there something in Rutger's game that the Jets see that needs time on the farm? I don't watch enough of him beyond his highlights to have an opinion

Your suspicion may be correct but I think Jets took issue with his "demand" of a roster spot. It certainly looks like there is a position available. Which begs the question of why they couldn't find a better solution than divorce. Somebody needs to think about the kids. (That would be us fans)

 

[Huffer]

Buffalo - Kulich and a 2nd
Islanders - 2024 Tampa Bay 1st + 2nd LA 2024
CBJ - Mateychuk + 2nd

I would hope the Jets could get a pick higher than 20 if they are ok with taking a 1st.

Rather the islanders 2025 or 2026 1st

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I feel like greedy adults might be getting into his head

Pure speculation - but fits the look.

 

[raideralex99]

44 pages...

And a little more than 24 hours until the trade ... we will see who is right.