Prospect Info: Rutger McGroarty, 2022 NHL Draft, #14 Overall

[Whileee]

The other point is that the Jets really need to turn around public perceptions of the franchise, with fans and with players around the NHL. Maybe Perfetti and McGroarty aren't quite as ready as they need to be for some NHL roles, but how much worse would the Jets be if they played instead of journeyman forwards like Appleton, Iafallo, Gus, AJF, etc.? None of those players are that consequential to the Jets' success in the long term, and they certainly aren't so good that replacing them with younger players would make that much difference to on-ice performance. That's the lesson that many NHL teams are learning... young players that have been held back for vets often perform better than expectations when given the chance. Look at the Oilers, who had been benching Holloway and Broberg for vets in the Finals. They obviously underestimated their ability to play at a high enough level. They are a bit further along in development, but the principle is similar... coaches tend to underestimate younger players and overestimate older players.

 

[DRW204]

You’re right about the wingers, and it’s true the we don’t k ow what will happen with Ehlers - does he stay, does he get traded (and if so, is it for a winger, a D, draft pick, etc.). I guess what I’m saying is it’s not as clear to me exactly who will be there and he won’t be. One thing that I think is particularly worth noting though is what you said re: the wingers. I’m not convinced Monahan is staying/the long term solution, which makes Lambert (who plays C) arguably more important than McG. The other thing is when we think of the top Jets prospects right now, they are mostly all forwards (and all wingers except for lambert). So maybe McG (given what he can fetch in a trade) is the piece to be moved for a D. Anyways, interesting times!

look at Jets' capfriendly, it's the same fwd group that started the 23-24 season under contract or pending RFA (perfetti, gus).

the Jets don't typically trade out of contracts an off-season early, so i wouldn't assign a high % chance of UFA-1s being moved. it is certainly possible though, also possible if they do move a player like ehlers in a roundabout way they get another top-6 capable winger to fill his spot.

2 top-6 wingers are still RFA/team control (perfetti,vilardi)
KC is a UFA-2, he's the Jets' golden-boy so i think they will extend him
and that leaves 1 top-6 possible spot at wing (ehlers).

idk it seems pretty clear in the top-6.

expand to include bottom-6

nino signed for multiple years
appleton, names, and iafallo are a ufa-1

so in '25 off-season there may be 1xtop-6 winger spot open, 1xtop-9 winger spot, and 1xbottom-6 winger spot and namestnikov (who plays everywhere)

 

[SCP Guy]

OK, so let's say that Chevy gifts this kid a roster spot and he gets out there and clearly isn't ready. What do you do?

We saw how people around here reacted to how they handled Perfetti's struggles

The chances of him not being able to play 9 min a night on the 4th line are almost impossible…. Yes it would slow his development if he sucked but at least we could still develop him instead of trading his right for pieces.

You trade vets for pieces and make room for young players on a draft and develop team not the other way around. We have lost our way and are sitting on the fence

 

[Whileee]

Despite all of my concerns about how the Jets might be mangling the development process for some prospects, I also would note that I don't think the idea of trading McGroarty has to be a "loss" for the Jets. The fact that the Jets are unsure about when McGroarty might be ready for a full-time NHL role illustrates that they have some misgivings about him. Add to that the fact that the Jets have a prospect pool that is somewhat overloaded with wingers, and their NHL roster really needs more talent at C and D. If the Jets decided some time ago that they would consider moving McGroarty to acquire a young C or D, or add another premium draft pick, I'm okay with that. If the Jets wanted to trade McGroarty, now is likely his absolute peak in trade value, so far. So, I think the Jets can use a McGroarty trade to strengthen the organization, notwithstanding remaining concerns about their development process.

 

[wpgallday1960]

Regardless of perspectives on how the Jets have managed the development of their prospects (and young players), the reality is that their top prospect who by all accounts was keen on playing for the Jets had interactions with the Jets management and perhaps other observations that persuaded him to decide that he wanted to join another organization. At the very least, it suggests that the Jets missed the boat somewhere on their communications and relationship building with a top prospect. If it were an isolated incident, I suppose it wouldn't be as much of a concern, but this is now a bit of a recurring theme with the Jets and their young players and prospects. Perfetti is a recent example, and there are already rumours out there about his future with the Jets. If Perfetti was sitting for top players, that's one thing, but the Jets played Appleton, Iafallo, Gus and AJF ahead of him. Sure, Perfetti had a scoring slump, but so did a few other players (Nino, Appleton, etc.). Perfetti was still getting and creating chances and still ended up in the top-6 in points per 60 at 5v5, and he was solid defensively all season.
View attachment 885903

I look at Perfetti’s situation as being a result of an old style coach relying on trusted NHL vets possibly over these analytics. I’m not sure how much Chevy is to blame here as he has to let his guy coach especially in a race for a playoff spot. I’m not surprised the Jets benched him even though I was disappointed by it. Maybe it’s just perception but the Jets scoring malaise and Perfettis slump went hand in hand. If McG is basing his decision on part of a season that is short sighted, IMO.

 

[bustamente]

If the Jets decide to trade McG then this draft might be the optimal time rather than waiting to him to play another year in school where he might have a down year or even worse get injured.

 

[voyageur]

You’re right about the wingers, and it’s true the we don’t know what will happen with Ehlers - does he stay, does he get traded (and if so, is it for a winger, a D, draft pick, etc.). I guess what I’m saying is it’s not as clear to me exactly who will be there and he won’t be. One thing that I think is particularly worth noting though is what you said re: the wingers. I’m not convinced Monahan is staying/the long term solution, which makes Lambert (who plays C) arguably more important than McG. The other thing is when we think of the top Jets prospects right now, they are mostly all forwards (and all wingers except for lambert). So maybe McG (given what he can fetch in a trade) is the piece to be moved for a D. I think many of us thought McG was the one “untouchable” asset, but perhaps it’s really Lambert given that he is a center and the Jets’ need at center in the top-6 (and I think maybe lambert showed enough last season with the moose to prove he is basically ready now). Anyways, interesting times!

There is a certain amount of irony there...I think a lot of people on the boards originally thought Lambert was a better prospect than Mc Groarty...And if a top 6 job was available Lambert's AHL experience might be the difference between the 2 in terms of readiness. If Mc Groarty was projected as a centre, I think for sure you'd want to have him in the A first, as both Perfetti and Lambert have gone that route, Adam Lowry too.

 

[gojetsgo]

The chances of him not being able to play 9 min a night on the 4th line are almost impossible…. Yes it would slow his development if he sucked but at least we could still develop him instead of trading his right for pieces.

You trade vets for pieces and make room for young players on a draft and develop team not the other way around. We have lost our way and are sitting on the fence

why do we have to trade for pieces?

 

[Whileee]

I look at Perfetti’s situation as being a result of an old style coach relying on trusted NHL vets possibly over these analytics. I’m not sure how much Chevy is to blame here as he has to let his guy coach especially in a race for a playoff spot. I’m not surprised the Jets benched him even though I was disappointed by it. Maybe it’s just perception but the Jets scoring malaise and Perfettis slump went hand in hand. If McG is basing his decision on part of a season that is short sighted, IMO.

There are two issues... one is the breakdown in relationship between McGroarty and the Jets, and the other is how the Jets have soured relationships with other prospects. I think they might be related, based on coaching philosophy, but time will tell.

 

[Gil Fisher]

i was referencing the table for GAR that i quoted (post 604) that had Namestnikov as the best all Fwd on the Jets, Connor at 12th, Iafallo one spot behind Scheifele and ahead of Lowry, Nino.

I know. That's why I offered another analytic view. There are always anomolies in each perspective. This one seemed more accurate.

 

[wpgallday1960]

There are two issues... one is the breakdown in relationship between McGroarty and the Jets, and the other is how the Jets have soured relationships with other prospects. I think they might be related, based on coaching philosophy, but time will tell.

I agree that coaching philosophy is the underlying issue and hopefully Arniel is more willing to integrate youth into his roster decisions. However, that comes with risk as the Jets are in a win now mode and relying on youth that isn’t ready May hurt them in the standings. Basically I don’t like guaranteeing an NHL roster spot to someone who hasn’t even gone through a TC yet and I don’t think it paints the Jets ina -ve light to insist a prospect earn it.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I know. That's why I offered another analytic view. There are always anomolies in each perspective. This one seemed more accurate.

Off the top of my head, the JFresh model (based on others' models) would rate Scheifele, Ehlers, Connor and Vilardi has our best four forwards.

 

[NA Hockey]

Oh for sure …. But even if it is 5% it’s more than 70k in the A…But you have to think a captain on one of the biggest NCAA hockey teams would make a bit? Not even in the ball park of NCAA football because hockey is a joke compared to football in 99% of the USA

I have heard that top players could/will make north of $200k USD

 

[WolfgangPuck]

During the rookie camp. Seems like a leader and personal dude that would fit right in with the Jets. Didn’t realize he was an entitled brat that puts himself first. Best get rid of him and get some value when we can. Not being disrespectful but hope his value goes the way of PLD once he’s off our team

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Took a look at the Cutter Gauthier thing - its really bizarre... Flyers clearly had a spot waiting for him - they're a pretty young team on a retool as opposed to the start of a rebuild in Anaheim

Maybe they were gun shy because plugging Frost in at 20 hurt his development... legit don't see what Gauthier gained by forcing a trade - he would have been in the flyers lineup for the one game he was available haha

During the rookie camp. Seems like a leader and personal dude that would fit right in with the Jets. Didn’t realize he was an entitled brat that puts himself first. Best get rid of him and get some value when we can. Not being disrespectful but hope his value goes the way of PLD once he’s off our team

Would be interesting to see if he has the same 'family advisor' as Gauthier... could be an Overhardt type of deal and not solely the player

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Knew something was up when his teammates were signing ECL contracts and he “wanted to stay another year in college”. All lies. We don’t know what happens behind closed door negotiations but I doubt he wanted to play another year of NCAA

 

[abax44]

This guy is nhl ready. I don’t get it. Sign him, start him on Lowry line, if he struggles mightily he gets an ahl stint like Connor did. Tell him what he wants to hear, give him the chance, then it’s up to him. Lock him down Chevy.

This was my thought as well. Give him a spot and the do what you need to do. If he struggles, gets demoted and demands a trade... maybe he was never the high character guy you thought he was.

 

[wpgallday1960]

This was my thought as well. Give him a spot and the do what you need to do. If he struggles, gets demoted and demands a trade... maybe he was never the high character guy you thought he was.

I'd prefer he earn it in TC before giving him an NHL spot. Doesn't send a good message that a prospect can demand a roster spot before earning it. An opportunity to earn a spot is all he is owed, IMO.

 

[jetsfan15]

look at Jets' capfriendly, it's the same fwd group that started the 23-24 season under contract or pending RFA (perfetti, gus).

the Jets don't typically trade out of contracts an off-season early, so i wouldn't assign a high % chance of UFA-1s being moved. it is certainly possible though, also possible if they do move a player like ehlers in a roundabout way they get another top-6 capable winger to fill his spot.

2 top-6 wingers are still RFA/team control (perfetti,vilardi)
KC is a UFA-2, he's the Jets' golden-boy so i think they will extend him
and that leaves 1 top-6 possible spot at wing (ehlers).

idk it seems pretty clear in the top-6.

expand to include bottom-6

nino signed for multiple years
appleton, names, and iafallo are a ufa-1

so in '25 off-season there may be 1xtop-6 winger spot open, 1xtop-9 winger spot, and 1xbottom-6 winger spot and namestnikov (who plays everywhere)

Fair enough. So in addition to available spots, maybe the thought process on a related note is “we need to move a winger for an area more in need”… and if we want to maximize the return to that area in need, I suppose moving the top piece (McG) is the way to do that.

 

[abax44]

I'd prefer he earn it in TC before giving him an NHL spot. Doesn't send a good message that a prospect can demand a roster spot before earning it. An opportunity to earn a spot is all he is owed, IMO.

I was more meaning in a "tell him what he wants to hear" sorta way. Get him signed, into camp, and then let the chips fall where they may.

That said, sounds like this may very well be what they tried, but straight up told him nothing was guaranteed in terms of a spot. I would've just kept that part to myself.

 

[wpgallday1960]

I was more meaning in a "tell him what he wants to hear" sorta way. Get him signed, into camp, and then let the chips fall where they may.

That said, sounds like this may very well be what they tried, but straight up told him nothing was guaranteed in terms of a spot. I would've just kept that part to myself.

Ok, but i don't think being deceptive with a prospect is the way to go either.

 

[jetsfan15]

There is a certain amount of irony there...I think a lot of people on the boards originally thought Lambert was a better prospect than Mc Groarty...And if a top 6 job was available Lambert's AHL experience might be the difference between the 2 in terms of readiness. If Mc Groarty was projected as a centre, I think for sure you'd want to have him in the A first, as both Perfetti and Lambert have gone that route, Adam Lowry too.

Yeah, definitely an argument to be made that lambert is more “ready” and also arguably more “certainty” that he will truly be a top-6 player given how well he performed last year. Although I have a feeling McG will do just as well, but there’s less evidence vs. Lambert who just played a full successful year in the A.

 

[kenobiwan]

Ok, but i don't think being deceptive with a prospect is the way to go either.

I don’t think it would be deceptive, but I would tell him if you’re not playing well you are going down for some seasoning with a possible call back. Leave it for him to sink or swim and hopefully his attitude accepts it.

Chevy better have his phone charger handy with a spare nearby. It’s gonna be a busy week for him

 

[wpgallday1960]

I don’t think it would be deceptive, but I would tell him if you’re not playing well you are going down for some seasoning with a possible call back. Leave it for him to sink or swim and hopefully his attitude accepts it.

That's basically telling him you have to earn your spot. I don't know why you wouldn't make that clear at camp that he has to prove worthy of an NHL spot just like any other prospect.

 

[Ggg99]

Why not tell him that if he continues his development he is guaranteed a roster spot? The guy had a fabulous season and has A+ leadership skills. If the rest of his game improves, why not give him a roster spot? We are goin to lose Monahan/Taffoli/DeMelo/Dillon/Brossoit in a worse case scenario. That is 2 top 6 spots, Ehlers is going to be a UFA after the season. I would rather the Jets deal Ehlers for capital and keep McGroarty and sign him!

Why not tell every prospect that?