Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | 49 Going On 50

[CycloneSweep]

If they want long term, big money deals, yes.

I'm not inclined to keep anyone not named McDavid/Draisaitl/Nurse if they want big money and retirement contract term.

Sorry if that's a shocking concept to you. None of the support players on this team are so good that they can't be mostly replaced by 1-2 year UFA options for less money.

Dude.

I'm not arguing that are players are great.

I'm not arguing that they can't be replaced.

I am arguing that Zach Mother f***ing Bogosian who is a 3rd pairing defender, who is worse at all aspects of hockey than Larsson (who isn't a top pairing defender) should not be signed for a massive overpay to be on our top pairing.

The fact that you think Bogosian is as good or better than like our entire dcore is so laughably ridiculous. The fact that you don't get that is histerical lol

 

[CycloneSweep]

There are many contracts out there where it is understood that the last years will be terrible. We cant afford that. Year 4 from now will be a contending year

Then why are we signing Zach Bogosian as a top pairing defender. Is the point to suck for a few more years so in year 4 we can contend?

 

[Soundwave]

Dude.

I'm not arguing that are players are great.

I'm not arguing that they can't be replaced.

I am arguing that Zach Mother f***ing Bogosian who is a 3rd pairing defender, who is worse at all aspects of hockey than Larsson (who isn't a top pairing defender) should not be signed for a massive overpay to be on our top pairing.

The fact that you think Bogosian is as good or better than like our entire dcore is so laughably ridiculous. The fact that you don't get that is histerical lol

I'm just looking at the UFA options for right shot D that would be willing to sign for a year.

Like I'm sorry the name is not sexy enough for you, but the truth is the actual play on the ice I seriously doubt would be anywhere near as different as you think and most importantly the Oilers then have open cap room for years 2/3/4.

The player that actually would replace Larsson would be Kulikov who is the same tier player. Bogosian would be replacing the defensive side of Barrie's game which sucks anyway.

Bouchard/Nurse/Bear would split Barrie's PP time.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I'm just looking at the UFA options for right shot D that would be willing to sign for a year.

Like I'm sorry the name is not sexy enough for you, but the truth is the actual play on the ice I seriously doubt would be anywhere near as different as you think and most importantly the Oilers then have open cap room for years 2/3/4.

I...I'm just going to throw you on my ignore list, I can't do it anymore lol

 

[Soundwave]

Some people may not like my opinions, but I'm right more often than wrong.

I took massive amounts of shit here for slamming Chiarelli hard even after 2017 season, took a lot of shit for saying the Hall/Lucic swap (essentially) would bite the Oilers in the ass long term, Larsson was not the key to a good defense, etc. etc. in the long term I was dead on right, in fact I wasn't pessimistic enough. Now people admit a lot of this shit but 2-3 years ago it was not popular to hold those opinions at all.

I even called the Strome for Eberle deal 1 for 1 straight across when everyone was arguing Chiarelli had to get an add there.

This "supporting cast" isn't nearly as good as people think it is, it's propped by good feelings because McDavid/Draisaitl/Smith have been *that* good. Nothing more. Overpaying on several retirement year contracts to keep this group together would be a mistake.

 

[belair]

I have a feeling belair will come back with "but don't you want the Oilers to add a Taylor Hall" but I think that's a different animal since adding a top 6 winger knocks guys playing above their spot down a peg to where they can (in theory) do more good to stop the bleeding in the bottom 6.

What's the difference between a Taylor Hall or a Tyson Barrie if the on-ice result is the same though?

I have no answer for your initial question because I don't know how to respond to the suggestion that Barrie has no impact on McDavid's production. I have no way of isolating his impact, but I tend to believe that many of Barrie's contributions are positive and not just a direct result of McDavid's work. I don't see Darnell Nurse's game thriving in the same manner playing next to Bear as a partner.

There's a lot of truth to the fact that McDavid generates his own offense. This is the primary reason why I'm hesitant to throw money and term at a scoring winger when realistically that role is the perfect carrot for emerging prospects.

You're bound to see a lot more value spending cap dollars on players suited for third and fourth line role instead of assuming the trickle down offense theory works. When a team like Tampa Bay is willing to spend significant futures on players like Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, I'm fairly convinced that effective checking line players are actually quite difficult to obtain.

 

[CupofOil]

Larsson has been very important to the team this year.

I'm sorry you haven't been able to watch any games this season. That sucks.

Goals are all that matters to him. He doesn't watch defense.

 

[McDoused]

Larsson was *terribad* when he first came back, but after Jan, 2020 he's about the same as this year.

The real truth is Mike Smith's game has gone to another level from Jan. 1 2020 onwards. Nothing more, nothing less.

The D still does all the same stupid shit they were doing before, you just don't notice it because Smith erases a bunch of those mistakes every night.

I think like most arguments the truth is somewhere in the middle. Mike Smith is playing great and covering up some of the warts of this team for sure. Having said that, so was a guy like Hellebuyck in Winnipeg or Demko in Vancouver. This team is capable of winning on any given night but still has a long way to go before its among the top contenders like the Avalanche, Golden Knights, Hurricanes, etc. Smith is a big part of this teams success but saying hes the only reason is an oversimplification. The team is improving. For example, Darnell Nurse looks a lot better in his own zone this year while adding a more offense to his game. He's leading all defenceman in goals not just mooching secondary assists while playing with McDavid . Barrie is also an incredible passer and is 6th in scoring by a defenceman. Sure he's playing with McDavid but hes also taking advantage of it. No one else on the oilers blueline was able to do that. These are key pieces that are helping support our all stars.

It's obvious that the problem since McDavid has got here is that this team lacks depth. Thats no surprise to anyone and honestly its to be expected the way this team is structured. I agree that we can't afford to overpay guys when we already have 21 million tied into 2 players. The way this team is structured means that we need to take advantage of guys on entry level contracts to be competitive. Guys like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi add tremendous value given their salary. They are two definitely two more pieces that are supporting the stars we have. I would also add Kharia and Archibald as solid depth guys that can help you win hockey games. We are slowly getting better.

Hopefully we get a healthy Klefbom back for next year and Holland can continue to improve this team in the offseason.

 

[Mr Positive]

Then why are we signing Zach Bogosian as a top pairing defender. Is the point to suck for a few more years so in year 4 we can contend?

There's some conversation there I'm not following.

Just don't give RNH or Barrie what a team desperate to fix their holes would. Columbus would give RNH 6 million x 6 years, but we don't have to. Similar for Barrie.

And btw, all Holland has to do is put in the work. The easy answer is to just pay up and keep everyone. But, if Holland puts in the work, he can replace them, and make the team just as effective without mortgaging the future cap.

Look at Neal/Lucic situations. It's way easier to find another solution in the 2021 offseason that will help us stop gap the short term than it will be to move a boat anchor contract 3 years from now. And yes, if Holland is doing his job he should take a pessimistic view

 

[Soundwave]

I think like most arguments the truth is somewhere in the middle. Mike Smith is playing great and covering up some of the warts of this team for sure. Having said that, so was a guy like Hellebuyck in Winnipeg or Demko in Vancouver. This team is capable of winning on any given night but still has a long way to go before its among the top contenders like the Avalanche, Golden Knights, Hurricanes, etc. Smith is a big part of this teams success but saying hes the only reason is an oversimplification. The team is improving. For example, Darnell Nurse looks a lot better in his own zone this year while adding a more offense to his game. He's leading all defenceman in goals not just mooching secondary assists while playing with McDavid . Barrie is also an incredible passer and is 6th in scoring by a defenceman. Sure he's playing with McDavid but hes also taking advantage of it. No one else on the oilers blueline was able to do that. These are key pieces that are helping support our all stars.

It's obvious that the problem since McDavid has got here is that this team lacks depth. Thats no surprise to anyone and honestly its to be expected the way this team is structured. I agree that we can't afford to overpay guys when we already have 21 million tied into 2 players. The way this team is structured means that we need to take advantage of guys on entry level contracts to be competitive. Guys like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi add tremendous value given their salary. They are two definitely two more pieces that are supporting the stars we have. I would also add Kharia and Archibald as solid depth guys that can help you win hockey games. We are slowly getting better.

Hopefully we get a healthy Klefbom back for next year and Holland can continue to improve this team in the offseason.

Back end belongs to Nurse now, I don't think Klefbom will play a full season again, not at the level he was before. I'd be happy if he did even if its elsewhere.

It's not even like Nurse is doing something unbelievable though I will say his shooting percentage is probably inflated this year with a little luck.

But he's a no.7 overall pick. He *should* be good, lol. He *should* be a top pairing D-Man. You don't pick a D at that spot to get a no.3 D. He's just growing into that role finally and good for him. I have no problem giving credit where its due.

 

[Soundwave]

There's some conversation there I'm not following.

Just don't give RNH or Barrie what a team desperate to fix their holes would. Columbus would give RNH 6 million x 6 years, but we don't have to. Similar for Barrie.

And btw, all Holland has to do is put in the work. The easy answer is to just pay up and keep everyone. But, if Holland puts in the work, he can replace them, and make the team just as effective without mortgaging the future cap.

Look at Neal/Lucic situations. It's way easier to find another solution in the 2021 offseason that will help us stop gap the short term than it will be to move a boat anchor contract 3 years from now. And yes, if Holland is doing his job he should take a pessimistic view

Exactly, it's not even that hard to follow.

Don't give out a bunch of retirement contracts to support players who can't do much without McDrai isn't a complicated concept to grasp.

Yes you can be better off overall often times by signing a "lesser" replacement player but reaping the long term benefit of greater cap flexibility.

Like again, the Oilers would be sitting f***ing pretty if they had an extra 3.2 million in open cap for the next 3 years even if you signed a "worse" replacement for Kassian.

I don't "hate" any of RNH, Barrie, Larsson. Barrie in particular I would like to keep. But I know the dollar/term he will want is also going to be a contract you regret badly in a few years.

 

[McDoused]

I'm just looking at the UFA options for right shot D that would be willing to sign for a year.

Like I'm sorry the name is not sexy enough for you, but the truth is the actual play on the ice I seriously doubt would be anywhere near as different as you think and most importantly the Oilers then have open cap room for years 2/3/4.

The player that actually would replace Larsson would be Kulikov who is the same tier player. Bogosian would be replacing the defensive side of Barrie's game which sucks anyway.

Bouchard/Nurse/Bear would split Barrie's PP time.

I cant say I agree about Barrie. He's on pace for 70 points (pro-rated to a regular season) while Bogosian has a total of 4 points. Also, I'm a huge Bouchard fan but he's not replacing those numbers. Bear is a good player but he has a career high 20 points and is nowhere near the offensive player Barrie is. So yeah maybe you can replace Barries defensive game but thats not exactly why he's here. He's here to bring the offense. I know everyone wants a guy who can do it all but their is nothing wrong with having different elements and types of players on a roster. None of those other players even come close to replicating Barries offense. Hockey isn't just about playing defensive hockey, its about generating more than you give up. I actually think Barrie has a pretty underrated defensive game for being an offensive defenceman.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Some people may not like my opinions, but I'm right more often than wrong.

I took massive amounts of shit here for slamming Chiarelli hard even after 2017 season, took a lot of shit for saying the Hall/Lucic swap (essentially) would bite the Oilers in the ass long term, Larsson was not the key to a good defense, etc. etc. in the long term I was dead on right, in fact I wasn't pessimistic enough. Now people admit a lot of this shit but 2-3 years ago it was not popular to hold those opinions at all.

I even called the Strome for Eberle deal 1 for 1 straight across when everyone was arguing Chiarelli had to get an add there.

This "supporting cast" isn't nearly as good as people think it is, it's propped by good feelings because McDavid/Draisaitl/Smith have been *that* good. Nothing more. Overpaying on several retirement year contracts to keep this group together would be a mistake.

You're right, I mean McDavid is having as close to a "Mario Lemieux" season as anyone has since.

This season has an underwhelming aura to me because of that. How are we not first with THAT guy?

Definitely are a few guys where you have to be careful about paying them based on playing with McDavid vs what they actually are (Nurse, Barrie, RNH). We already made that mistake once with Zack Kassian, which is a pretty bad contract now and also was when it was first signed. The other 3 are better guys, but how much? What term?

I like the young pieces we're building - IF they get developed properly. Bouchard, Bear, McLeod, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Holloway - and further down, Lavoie, Samorukov, Savoie - jury is 50/50 on Broberg but I do think he's an NHL player at the very least. Maybe Benson still?

But, when you have McDavid at what he's doing now...you want to be always in attack mode. The supporting cast certainly isn't good enough to me. I don't feel like Tippett has been the greatest this year at bringing those younger assets to develop better games (Puljujarvi may be the exception). We're not THAT far off, but it's missing a layer of good 2nd tier roster players.

I go back to WSH - feels like we're missing an Oshie, a Wilson, an Eller, a young goalie like Samsonov, and a bit of D depth.

 

[belair]

Some people may not like my opinions, but I'm right more often than wrong.

I took massive amounts of shit here for slamming Chiarelli hard even after 2017 season, took a lot of shit for saying the Hall/Lucic swap (essentially) would bite the Oilers in the ass long term, Larsson was not the key to a good defense, etc. etc. in the long term I was dead on right, in fact I wasn't pessimistic enough. Now people admit a lot of this shit but 2-3 years ago it was not popular to hold those opinions at all.

I even called the Strome for Eberle deal 1 for 1 straight across when everyone was arguing Chiarelli had to get an add there.

This "supporting cast" isn't nearly as good as people think it is, it's propped by good feelings because McDavid/Draisaitl/Smith have been *that* good. Nothing more. Overpaying on several retirement year contracts to keep this group together would be a mistake.

***Cringe***

We all had the Strome trade months before it happened. The Kassian trade. The Gagner trade. The Ference signing. This wasn't a hard team to read during the rebuild. Their on-ice product was ass and their players had no value across the league. It didn't take much.

The fact of the matter is that you're pumping up a defenseman with prominent injury history who has played 14 minutes a night this year. You're talking about replacing a player that plays 20 minutes a night with one that plays 15. Just a lot of poor projections based on some odd fixation on contract term and the assumption that every player regresses at 30--except Dougie Hamilton apparently.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

3.5 may be a bit high, but he's played like a 2.25-2.5 player this year, solid, add in 500k Western Canadian team tax.

In the long term you may still be better off with that deal than say Larsson at 4.6 x 4 years or something he will ask for.

If Adam Larsson (OK player) was that important (he's not) to the Oilers they should've had a losing record in the 2 months he missed in 2019-20 (they didn't, not even close in fact).

Oilers had a winning record with McDavid out last year.

He must not be very important.

 

[Soundwave]

I cant say I agree about Barrie. He's on pace for 70 points (pro-rated to a regular season) while Bogosian has a total of 4 points. Also, I'm a huge Bouchard fan but he's not replacing those numbers. Bear is a good player but he has a career high 20 points and is nowhere near the offensive player Barrie is. So yeah maybe you can replace Barries defensive game but thats not exactly why he's here. He's here to bring the offense. I know everyone wants a guy who can do it all but their is nothing wrong with having different elements and types of players on a roster. None of those other players even come close to replicating Barries offense. Hockey isn't just about playing defensive hockey, its about generating more than you give up. I actually think Barrie has a pretty underrated defensive game for being an offensive defenceman.

Obviously we would take a temporary hit in some offensive metrics without Barrie, everyone knows there is a transition period with Bouchard getting comfortable in that role.

That said, top unit PP will always be a strength for this team and quite honestly that PP unit looks just as good with Nurse on it as it does with Barrie.

I'd like to sign Barrie if he was willing to give up some dollars and term but you can see Oiler organization shills like Stauffer not even pushing the concept anymore, I think he's told the Oilers his ask on an extension and it's too rich for Holland's blood.

The other kind of thing that's a red flag for me is he doesn't score a ton of actual goals. Pretty decent pace yes, but given the time with McDavid/Drai on the PP ... I kinda would expect a little more? 5 on 5 goal scoring from him is not great either, he hasn't really seemed to hook up with McDrai for goals on the rush.

That also kinda gives me pause.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

The Oilers did well despite Larsson playing badly last year because Ethan Bear played WELL.

And he’s playing well again. I don’t know how some people think he’s equal to Jones right now. He’s clearly above Jones - a solid top 4 defender when playing well. Jones has been a bottom pairing guy for most of his NHL career so far.

Both Larsson and Bear are playing well at the moment, and at a top 4 level. Bogosian would not be able to replace either of them.

 

[Soundwave]

Oilers had a winning record with McDavid out last year.

He must not be very important.

Would you want to know the Oilers record if McDavid missed as much time as Larsson did last year? Probably not.

 

[McDoused]

Exactly, it's not even that hard to follow.

Don't give out a bunch of retirement contracts to support players who can't do much without McDrai isn't a complicated concept to grasp.

Yes you can be better off overall often times by signing a "lesser" replacement player but reaping the long term benefit of greater cap flexibility.

Like again, the Oilers would be sitting f***ing pretty if they had an extra 3.2 million in open cap for the next 3 years even if you signed a "worse" replacement for Kassian.

I don't "hate" any of RNH, Barrie, Larsson. Barrie in particular I would like to keep. But I know the dollar/term he will want is also going to be a contract you regret badly in a few years.

I've been saying this for a while as well. It all depends on how valuable you think the guy is and what they will sign for.

That last thing we need is locking ourselves into another anchor of a contract. Handing out massive deals to guys in their contract years isnt a successful long term strategy. For me my maximum would be:

Barrie: 5 x 3 years
RNH: 5.5 x 4 years
Larsson: 3.75x3 years

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Would you want to know the Oilers record if McDavid missed as much time as Larsson did last year? Probably not.

But think of all the overpaid 1 year contracts we could sign if McDavid was on LTIR.

 

[Mr Positive]

***Cringe***

We all had the Strome trade months before it happened. The Kassian trade. The Gagner trade. The Ference signing. This wasn't a hard team to read during the rebuild. Their on-ice product was ass and their players had no value across the league. It didn't take much.

The fact of the matter is that you're pumping up a defenseman with prominent injury history who has played 14 minutes a night this year. You're talking about replacing a player that plays 20 minutes a night with one that plays 15. Just a lot of poor projections based on some odd fixation on contract term and the assumption that every player regresses at 30--except Dougie Hamilton apparently.

Regression is clear. For Dmen, they take longer to develop, but regress later. For forwards, the overwhelming evidence is a steep drop off somewhere in 28-31 years old. I haven't checked for D, but it's likely in the 32-34 area.

And then there's talent. An elite like Bergeron or Crosby will lose a step in that range but remain as game breaking talents until they are around 34-35. For forwards like RNH, they drop out of the top six once the regression happens. Elite D can play well even at age 38-40

Would we offer a 2 year deal, 5 or 6 million AAV to a 32-33 year old RNH? Heck no. So don't have a long term deal that extends that long for that much. I'd rather pay him more now for a deal that ends sooner.

 

[Soundwave]

But think of all the overpaid 1 year contracts we could sign if McDavid was on LTIR.

When Jason Spezza or Corey Perry have about as many/more 5 on 5 goals as you and you're the one asking for 6.5 million+ extension, you will get called out.

McDavid is worth every penny and then some. RNH/Barrie/Larsson are not in that conversation, even though I like what Barrie has brought this year.

Just because you have a one night stand with a girl you met at the bar, doesn't mean you should marry her or she even wants to get married, lol. If Barrie wants to stay here he will have to accept a considerable amount less in dollars term.

The Oilers will give RNH a contract they will regret in 2-3 years and this board will be filled with 10000 posts on creative ways to try and get out of from under the contract. That's just the Oiler way.

 

[belair]

You're right, I mean McDavid is having as close to a "Mario Lemieux" season as anyone has since.

This season has an underwhelming aura to me because of that. How are we not first with THAT guy?

Definitely are a few guys where you have to be careful about paying them based on playing with McDavid vs what they actually are (Nurse, Barrie, RNH). We already made that mistake once with Zack Kassian, which is a pretty bad contract now and also was when it was first signed. The other 3 are better guys, but how much? What term?

I like the young pieces we're building - IF they get developed properly. Bouchard, Bear, McLeod, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Holloway - and further down, Lavoie, Samorukov, Savoie - jury is 50/50 on Broberg but I do think he's an NHL player at the very least. Maybe Benson still?

But, when you have McDavid at what he's doing now...you want to be always in attack mode. The supporting cast certainly isn't good enough to me. I don't feel like Tippett has been the greatest this year at bringing those younger assets to develop better games (Puljujarvi may be the exception). We're not THAT far off, but it's missing a layer of good 2nd tier roster players.

How can you always be in 'attack mode' though? The cap ceiling prevents you from spending frivolously. And when you 'attack', you're commiting salary, trade capital and futures for short-term gains. That has an impact on your ability to sustain your 'attack' in future seasons.

The fact of the matter is that every team is limited by the salary cap and the marketplace where they can address that supporting cast. I'm still questioning how you replace a single player that covers as much ground as RNH has knowing that it took you a 1st overall pick to acquire in the first place. Give @Soundwave all four of the guys he mentioned and your team is much weaker moving forward.

Don't piss away the good players you have. You can't get them back.

 

[Soundwave]

How can you always be in 'attack mode' though? The cap ceiling prevents you from spending frivolously. And when you 'attack', you're commiting salary, trade capital and futures for short-term gains. That has an impact on your ability to sustain your 'attack' in future seasons.

The fact of the matter is that every team is limited by the salary cap and the marketplace where they can address that supporting cast. I'm still questioning how you replace a single player that covers as much ground as RNH has knowing that it took you a 1st overall pick to acquire in the first place. Give @Soundwave all four of the guys he mentioned and your team is much weaker moving forward.

Don't piss away the good players you have. You can't get them back.

You mean like how Kassian was a good player last year?

And Lucic and Letestu in 16-17? (imagine Letestu was a UFA in 16-17, the Oilers would have given him a 3 mill x 4 year retirement deal too).

You don't want to lose any of those players, right?

I'm pretty sure if anyone suggested selling relatively high on Lucic after 16-17, they would have gotten grilled but it also would have been 200% the correct move.

There's an easy way to know if a player is worth keeping -- do they push a needle hard in situations where McDavid/Draisaitl aren't carrying them? Are there games you walk out of feeling like they won the game for you even when other top players don't show up?

If the answer to these questions is "no" ... you better tread carefully on long term contracts.

The last skater (non-goalie) the Oilers had who actually won the team games on his back without needing McDavid or current 77-100 point version of Draisaitl was Hall. THAT guy they should have kept, we were still competing for a playoff spot as of Christmas 2016 that year w/o McDavid mainly because he was pushing the apple cart.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

But think of all the overpaid 1 year contracts we could sign if McDavid was on LTIR.

Very regressive version of his argument. Any argument would sound dumb if you remove any piece of nuance.