Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | 49 Going On 50

[McDoused]

Obviously we would take a temporary hit in some offensive metrics without Barrie, everyone knows there is a transition period with Bouchard getting comfortable in that role.

That said, top unit PP will always be a strength for this team and quite honestly that PP unit looks just as good with Nurse on it as it does with Barrie.

I'd like to sign Barrie if he was willing to give up some dollars and term but you can see Oiler organization shills like Stauffer not even pushing the concept anymore, I think he's told the Oilers his ask on an extension and it's too rich for Holland's blood.

The other kind of thing that's a red flag for me is he doesn't score a ton of actual goals. Pretty decent pace yes, but given the time with McDavid/Drai on the PP ... I kinda would expect a little more? 5 on 5 goal scoring from him is not great either, he hasn't really seemed to hook up with McDrai for goals on the rush.

That also kinda gives me pause.

Barries always been okay at scoring goals. Hes enough of a threat back there that teams have to respect him, especially on the power play. But yeah his real value is his passing. He has easily been our best passer on defence and the numbers prove that.

It would suck to see him go and price himself out of a contract. I think hes having a very good year and is solid for us in a supporting role. If hes looking for a pay day instead of trying to win he can enjoy his retirement in seattle.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Very regressive version of his argument. Any argument would sound dumb if you remove any piece of nuance.

I'm not the one thinking signing Bogosian to a 3.5m deal and playing him on the first pairing is a good idea.

 

[Paralyzer008]

I think the only UFA D-man I'd be excited about giving term to is Dougie Hamilton because he's probably better than what Bouchard will be. Hamilton has become a more all-around D you can play anywhere, and he's a beast. That would be an amazing add, you're not just consigned to playing him on the PP and sheltered, you can play him comfortably at 5v5 and in all situations. I imagine the chances of us getting Hamilton are pretty low.

I'd want to keep Larsson, but the term is probably not the play and I wonder what other teams would give term wise (probably something dumb like 4 years).

If you're giving a guy like Barrie, who is a PP guy and probably isn't the guy you want playing 1 or 2D at 5v5 TOI, a contract of 6M per (which let's be honest, this guy is not staying around for 5 or else they would have done that already)

What are the NHL comparables for a guy like that?

Torey Krug? Krug I think is better defensively, but are the Blues loving that deal right now? Don't think so.

Keith Yandle? Is he a guy you win with? Meh, lots of called that contract bad and Florida even tried to deal it out.

Kevin Shattenkirk in NY? That failed miserably.

If we were talking up Barrie as a 4-4.5M D-man, I'd get it a lot more, although also from a cap POV, it'd be weird to not try to maximize on Evan Bouchard while he's cheap.

But hey, floor is yours Tyson - wow me down this stretch and in the playoffs go be lights out.

 

[Soundwave]

Barries always been okay at scoring goals. Hes enough of a threat back there that teams have to respect him, especially on the power play. But yeah his real value is his passing. He has easily been our best passer on defence and the numbers prove that.

It would suck to see him go and price himself out of a contract. I think hes having a very good year and is solid for us in a supporting role. If hes looking for a pay day instead of trying to win he can enjoy his retirement in seattle.

The other barometer is this ... do you really notice a big difference when Barrie is on the PP versus Nurse?

Honestly I don't.

Barrie is a good passer, but for me to keep him on a big ticket contract, I think he would need to be a better goal scorer and we would need to be more berefit of any players who can rack up assists with McDavid/Draisaitl.

Nurse can do that now, and Bouchard is over-ripening at this point not playing.

 

[belair]

Regression is clear. For Dmen, they take longer to develop, but regress later. For forwards, the overwhelming evidence is a steep drop off somewhere in 28-31 years old. I haven't checked for D, but it's likely in the 32-34 area.

And then there's talent. An elite like Bergeron or Crosby will lose a step in that range but remain as game breaking talents until they are around 34-35. For forwards like RNH, they drop out of the top six once the regression happens. Elite D can play well even at age 38-40

Would we offer a 2 year deal, 5 or 6 million AAV to a 32-33 year old RNH? Heck no. So don't have a long term deal that extends that long for that much. I'd rather pay him more now for a deal that ends sooner.

Care to provide it? Or are you going to list random players that fit the mold like I've seen previously.

RNH's has been consistent for some time now. He doesn't have a prominent injury history and clearly handles his minutes well. Where's the drop-off for him? If there's a player I see having career longevity on this roster, it's him considering he's by far the most versatile.

Watching a guy like Dougie Hamilton, there's no f***ing way that player lasts until his late 30s.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

I'm not the one thinking signing Bogosian to a 3.5m deal and playing him on the first pairing is a good idea.

Im not saying that particular signing is good. Its not lol. I dont even really agree with what hes saying technically.

But to reduce his argument to what you have is not productive and completely disregards his overall point, which does has some merit in it.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Im not saying that particular signing is good. Its not lol. I dont even really agree with what hes saying technically.

But to reduce his argument to what you have is not productive and completely disregards his overall point, which does has some merit in it.

His point is that we can just slap any players on the team because of McDavid and Draisaitl and it'll be fine if we have good goaltending too.

 

[Soundwave]

Care to provide it? Or are you going to list random players that fit the mold like I've seen previously.

RNH's has been consistent for some time now. He doesn't have a prominent injury history and clearly handles his minutes well. Where's the drop-off for him? If there's a player I see having career longevity on this roster, it's him considering he's by far the most versatile.

Watching a guy like Dougie Hamilton, there's no f***ing way that player lasts until his late 30s.

Most forwards decline offensively into their 30s, really even after age 27, even the best players like Crosby, so puh-lease don't make me laugh by saying RNH won't.

If he can't even get it going stapled to McDavid's wing in a year McDavid is scoring at a higher rate than any forward in the last 25 years, there is plenty of reason to doubt that a 31/32 year old won't be having his issues here.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

His point is that we can just slap any players on the team because of McDavid and Draisaitl and it'll be fine if we have good goaltending too.

I understood it as we should be desperate to re-sign players who in particular only produce with Mcdavid/Drai?

Key word: Desperate.

We should obviously retain good players like you, Belair and Cyclone have said, but I also understand his point that we shouldnt be desperate and throwing out huge numbers to some of these guys.

 

[Paralyzer008]

How can you always be in 'attack mode' though? The cap ceiling prevents you from spending frivolously. And when you 'attack', you're commiting salary, trade capital and futures for short-term gains. That has an impact on your ability to sustain your 'attack' in future seasons.

The fact of the matter is that every team is limited by the salary cap and the marketplace where they can address that supporting cast. I'm still questioning how you replace a single player that covers as much ground as RNH has knowing that it took you a 1st overall pick to acquire in the first place. Give @Soundwave all four of the guys he mentioned and your team is much weaker moving forward.

Don't piss away the good players you have. You can't get them back.

Weird how other teams do it all the time no? They build a good enough core, through development, so that every year they can go grab one piece at the deadline or in the summer and keep on the brakes. Tampa Bay, Colorado, Boston - these teams are always in attack mode. The Avs got Devon Toews and Brandon Saad last summer as a reward for their organization's brilliance.

You're especially screwed when you can't maximize on your homegrown talent. That is supposed to be a big part of your supporting cast. Guys like Bouchard, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Holloway, Bear, Samorukov, McLeod. That, or your pro scouts better be good at unearthing guys (not ours). The Avs did grab Graves, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, and Donskoi out of relatively thin air and also recognized their homegrown talent on D would make Barrie expendable to grab themselves another nice piece in trade.

As for RNH, I would be definitely looking to bring him back but everyone has a price. I find the cap screws teams most who overvalue the guys they already have in career years. See Kassian, Zach. It's a balancing act, but the Oilers have some real tough decisions to make about where their $$ is best spent.

 

[Spawn]

Some people may not like my opinions, but I'm right more often than wrong.

I took massive amounts of shit here for slamming Chiarelli hard even after 2017 season, took a lot of shit for saying the Hall/Lucic swap (essentially) would bite the Oilers in the ass long term, Larsson was not the key to a good defense, etc. etc. in the long term I was dead on right, in fact I wasn't pessimistic enough. Now people admit a lot of this shit but 2-3 years ago it was not popular to hold those opinions at all.

I even called the Strome for Eberle deal 1 for 1 straight across when everyone was arguing Chiarelli had to get an add there.

This "supporting cast" isn't nearly as good as people think it is, it's propped by good feelings because McDavid/Draisaitl/Smith have been *that* good. Nothing more. Overpaying on several retirement year contracts to keep this group together would be a mistake.

Lot of revisionist history on your own stances lol. It's too bad the search engine is shit now a days. IIRC you argued after the Hall/Larsson trade and subsequent Lucic signing that the Oilers were better off with Lucic because any offense he gave up compared to Hall was more than made up for by Lucic supposedly being a far superior two-way player.

You've also 100% flipped on the Strome for Eberle deal lol.

 

[Soundwave]

I understood it as we should be desperate to re-sign players who in particular only produce with Mcdavid/Drai?

Key word: Desperate.

We should obviously retain good players like you, Belair and Cyclone have said, but I also understand his point that we shouldnt be desperate and throwing out huge numbers to some of these guys.

And like RNH isn't even living up to THAT side of the bargain. He's left McDavid on an island 5 on 5 this year, lol, at least Barrie is cashing in on the opportunity.

This dude can't even get that part right.

If you're going to be the "I don't do shit without McDavid" player, well at LEAST do that well, lol.

Like how much lower does the bar have to go here?

 

[Mr Positive]

Care to provide it? Or are you going to list random players that fit the mold like I've seen previously.

RNH's has been consistent for some time now. He doesn't have a prominent injury history and clearly handles his minutes well. Where's the drop-off for him? If there's a player I see having career longevity on this roster, it's him considering he's by far the most versatile.

Watching a guy like Dougie Hamilton, there's no f***ing way that player lasts until his late 30s.

Yes the list of names is shocking. And yes, it would be even better to have an in depth study of all forwards separated by age. What we do have is prove that production of all forwards peaks at around 24. But, I do believe that elites skew that data because as they regress they at least stay in the top six and get regular PP time. Forwards like RNH get passed by younger forwards, and that explains why their regression is even more accelerated.

And if you think that a list of names (that could be 3-4 x longer btw) is lame, then provide the list of names of players with similar talent RNH who remain effective top sixers at 31-35 years old. The list will be way shorter than the graveyard of forwads who fell off a cliff. What all those regressed forwards have in common is that when they were in their late 20s everyone had all these reasons why this player would be the one that would not regress, and how this signing was just so amazing.

 

[Soundwave]

Lot of revisionist history on your own stances lol. It's too bad the search engine is shit now a days. IIRC you argued after the Hall/Larsson trade and subsequent Lucic signing that the Oilers were better off with Lucic because any offense he gave up compared to Hall was more than made up for by Lucic supposedly being a far superior two-way player.

You've also 100% flipped on the Strome for Eberle deal lol.

I've always liked Hall, if anything I take grief here for not letting go of that, but that trade haunts us to this day so it's valid.

Eberle for Strome actually wasn't *that* bad, but Todd decided to be Dumb to Chia's Dumber and not utilize him the top 6 at all, so he it's easy just to pile shit on him at that point since nothing he did worked out. Strome is debatably the better player now.

 

[Soundwave]

Most forwards score less after age 27/28, that's true of most of them, even Gretzky/Crosby tier players see a decline, they're just declining from an extremely high peak.

Maaaaaybe modern sports supplement and training can alleviate that for this generation of players, but RNH trains with his dorky brother and I don't see him committing to any kind of change in how he trains.

A guy like McDavid strikes me as someone like LeBron who's willing to try different things as he ages.

 

[McDoused]

The other barometer is this ... do you really notice a big difference when Barrie is on the PP versus Nurse?

Honestly I don't.

Barrie is a good passer, but for me to keep him on a big ticket contract, I think he would need to be a better goal scorer and we would need to be more berefit of any players who can rack up assists with McDavid/Draisaitl.

Nurse can do that now, and Bouchard is over-ripening at this point not playing.

To me choosing between Nurse and Barrie is a false dilemma. You can have both. I dont think is a coincidence, they feed off eachother and make eachother better players.

I do prefer Barrie on the powerplay, it frees up Nurse to play elsewhere. Nurse is already playing 25 minutes a night and I think Barrie is the better option on the powerplay. I dont see Nurses offensive numbers improving if Barrie is gone. I like the look of the powerplay with the right shot and hes a better passer than Nurse. Having said that Barrie isnt just a powerplay specialist. Gregor posted the numbers a while back but hes also our best passer for defenceman 5 on 5. To me he plays a different game and brings a different element than Nurse. Nurse is a puck carrier and Barrie is a distributor. I'd like both and the fact that they play opposite sides reinforces that I think you can and should have both if the price is reasonable.

 

[belair]

Weird how other teams do it all the time no? They build a good enough core, through development, so that every year they can go grab one piece at the deadline or in the summer and keep on the brakes. Tampa Bay, Colorado, Boston - these teams are always in attack mode. The Avs got Devon Toews and Brandon Saad last summer as a reward for their organization's brilliance.

You're especially screwed when you can't maximize on your homegrown talent. That is supposed to be a big part of your supporting cast. Guys like Bouchard, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Holloway, Bear, Samorukov, McLeod. That, or your pro scouts better be good at unearthing guys (not ours). The Avs did grab Graves, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, and Donskoi out of relatively thin air and also recognized their homegrown talent on D would make Barrie expendable to grab themselves another nice piece in trade.

As for RNH, I would be definitely looking to bring him back but everyone has a price. I find the cap screws teams most who overvalue the guys they already have in career years. See Kassian, Zach. It's a balancing act, but the Oilers have some real tough decisions to make about where their $$ is best spent.

So this just appears out of nowhere? Those teams took time to build sustainable rosters. They actually drafted and developed players to allow their teams to have multiple shots at a playoff run. A team like Tampa has had it's farm system churning out players for over a decade.

The way you worded your initial post, you expected this without the whole draft and develop aspect of the equation. Assuming Chiarelli's time at the draft table went flawlessly (it didn't), we're about five years into the process.

Even a team like Colorado has its Kassian mishaps. I'm sure they'd be fine shipping JT Compher our way, they'd even pay for his ticket.

The fact of the matter is that this team hasn't been built in a way that could capitalize on McDavid's breakout campaigns. Probably because they were too focused on capitalizing on his ELC. Fortunately Ken Holland has some sense and doesn't see a reason to push his chips in whenever McDavid plays well. It gives us a fighting chance to keep a healthy chunk of this roster together.

 

[Paralyzer008]

So this just appears out of nowhere? Those teams took time to build sustainable rosters. They actually drafted and developed players to allow their teams to have multiple shots at a playoff run. A team like Tampa has had it's farm system churning out players for over a decade.

The way you worded your initial post, you expected this without the whole draft and develop aspect of the equation. Assuming Chiarelli's time at the draft table went flawlessly (it didn't), we're about five years into the process.

Even a team like Colorado has its Kassian mishaps. I'm sure they'd be fine shipping JT Compher our way, they'd even pay for his ticket.

The fact of the matter is that this team hasn't been built in a way that could capitalize on McDavid's breakout campaigns. Probably because they were too focused on capitalizing on his ELC. Fortunately Ken Holland has some sense and doesn't see a reason to push his chips in whenever McDavid plays well. It gives us a fighting chance to keep a healthy chunk of this roster together.

Mostly right.

I'm glad they were focused on capitalizing on McDavid's ELC, that was the right call. Sadly, they made very wrong personnel decisions in that quest. Nobody ever forces a team to make bad decisions on players not worth the salt.

The big question this summer is how much are Nurse, RNH or Barrie part of the core you want to pay going forward while these younger guys come in around them? We have nobody in the organization to replace Nurse, I don't think Broberg is near at all and there's question marks. We PROBABLY don't have a Nuge replacement, although the UFA market may have some similar guys.

We have a guy we drafted at 10th overall who literally was born to play Barrie's role. I smell serious cap savings.

I want to be in attack mode - but maybe we aren't quite there yet due to the progression of the younger players. But if we are going to pay some guys, I want it as optimized as possible. Also, we have that McDavid guy in his prime, which as I was saying does add to the pressure of actually building a champion.

It doesn't mean I can't feel super underwhelmed by what's happening now.

 

[belair]

Mostly right.

I'm glad they were focused on capitalizing on McDavid's ELC, that was the right call. Sadly, they made very wrong personnel decisions in that quest. Nobody ever forces a team to make bad decisions on players not worth the salt.

The big question this summer is how much are Nurse, RNH or Barrie part of the core you want to pay going forward while these younger guys come in around them? We have nobody in the organization to replace Nurse, I don't think Broberg is near at all and there's question marks. We PROBABLY don't have a Nuge replacement, although the UFA market may have some similar guys.

We have a guy we drafted at 10th overall who literally was born to play Barrie's role. I smell serious cap savings.

I want to be in attack mode - but maybe we aren't quite there yet due to the progression of the younger players. But if we are going to pay some guys, I want it as optimized as possible. Also, we have that McDavid guy in his prime, which as I was saying does add to the pressure of actually building a champion.

It doesn't mean I can't feel super underwhelmed by what's happening now.

Sorry but f*** no.

Katz's plan to go balls to the wall out of the gate precipitated the Reinhart gamble and led to Chiarelli shipping off guys like Hall and Eberle for roster players instead of shopping them to the highest bidder, which would have ultimately resulted in an unreal number of futures available to the team today.

Looking at how Sakic played out the Duchene saga, that was ultimately the way to go in terms of building a stockpile of trade capital. I don't know how this organization saw value in limping to the barn with the group that the OBC built, but it was the wrong plan.

Orange Crush was nice, but short-lived. And when a Sekera injury sinks the team, it's clear how shallow the depth was. Even Chiarelli had the sense to keep the powder dry that year.

Although in everyone's defense, nobody knew just how dominant Connor McDavid was going to be, nor Leon Draisaitl.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Sorry but f*** no.

Katz's plan to go balls to the wall out of the gate precipitated the Reinhart gamble and led to Chiarelli shipping off guys like Hall and Eberle for roster players instead of shopping them to the highest bidder, which would have ultimately resulted in an unreal number of futures available to the team today.

Looking at how Sakic played out the Duchene saga, that was ultimately the way to go in terms of building a stockpile of trade capital. I don't know how this organization saw value in limping to the barn with the group that the OBC build, but it was the wrong plan.

Orange Crush was nice, but short-lived. And when a Sekera injury sinks the team, it's clear how shallow the depth was. Even Chiarelli had the sense to keep the powder dry that year.

Or maybe Chiarelli could have, I don't know, made better moves? You're acting like that Chiarelli had to make bad moves because he didn't keep rebuilding. He had no choice The Oilers could have easily built on McDavid + Draisaitl with smart moves. I bet this team would have made that Reinhart deal rebuild or not, FYI.

Colorado may have made a mistake dealing Ryan O'Reilly considering their return didn't do much for them, although it didn't kill them. Sakic also famously held onto Gabriel Landeskog, who was available for trade too at around the same time as Matt Duchene. Hall and Eberle were not pending UFAs, either. Lots of factors there. Eberle would be considered closer to the Duchene situation to me. Hall would for me have been closer to a Landeskog that we should have kept, in hindsight, considering return.

Sakic also held out to deal Duchene for a lot. You really trust Peter Chiarelli to win a futures deal? If you can't trust him to make other deals?

 

[belair]

Or maybe Chiarelli could have, I don't know, made better moves? You're acting like that Chiarelli had to make bad moves because he didn't keep rebuilding. He had no choice The Oilers could have easily built on McDavid + Draisaitl with smart moves. I bet this team would have made that Reinhart deal rebuild or not, FYI.

Colorado may have made a mistake dealing Ryan O'Reilly considering their return didn't do much for them, although it didn't kill them. Sakic also famously held onto Gabriel Landeskog, who was available for trade too at around the same time as Matt Duchene. Hall and Eberle were not pending UFAs, either. Lots of factors there. Eberle would be considered closer to the Duchene situation to me. Hall would for me have been closer to a Landeskog that we should have kept, in hindsight, considering return.

Sakic also held out to deal Duchene for a lot. You really trust Peter Chiarelli to win a futures deal? If you can't trust him to make other deals?

No, I know that Chiarelli was hired in a time when the Oilers were on the cusp of setting an NHL record for playoff years missed. It was clear that Katz was frustrated, so it's not a big jump to assume Chiarelli's pitch was to be competitive out of the gate instead of building a sustainable roster.

He wasn't forced into anything, but the limitations presented by rushing a rebuild certainly limits the return you could expect in a trade. Walking away with the potential picks from the Reinhart, Hall and Eberle trades would've set the team up for years.

 

[Soundwave]

The Oilers over-reacted to 15-16 season, if it wasn't for Brandon Manning and Klefbom getting a freaking one in a million staph infection tying his skate (c'mon dude) that team would've shown notable improvement from the year before.

 

[XXIV97]

If Kulikov-Larsson is a sold pair, I can see the Oilers extending Kulikov as a short-term gap.

21-22:
Nurse-Bear
Kulikov-Larsson
Klefbom-Bouchard

 

[belair]

Most forwards score less after age 27/28, that's true of most of them, even Gretzky/Crosby tier players see a decline, they're just declining from an extremely high peak.

Maaaaaybe modern sports supplement and training can alleviate that for this generation of players, but RNH trains with his dorky brother and I don't see him committing to any kind of change in how he trains.

A guy like McDavid strikes me as someone like LeBron who's willing to try different things as he ages.

Nuge's training with his 'dorky brother' has allowed him to log some of the heaviest minutes in the league in respect to forwards. Might be something there you don't have a lot of information on.

 

[TheNumber4]

Nuge's training with his 'dorky brother' has allowed him to log some of the heaviest minutes in the league in respect to forwards. Might be something there you don't have a lot of information on.

Hasnt put one pound of muscle or increased his strength at all it seems training with his brother. A stronger Nuge could be a game breaking Nuge, but still gets easily shoved off pucks. I like Nuge, would prefer to keep him, but man I’ve been waiting for a decade for him to get some semblance of strength so he could better protect the puck and be more effective offensively.