nexttothemoon
and again...
Last 3 years combined save percentages:
Smith 90.7
Koskinen 90.8
Stalock 90.7
A few others just for comparison over that time span:
Talbot 90.8
Murray 90.7
Rittich 90.8
Bobrovsky 90.7
Dubnyk 90.4
Holtby 90.2
Others being mentioned in the thread:
Frederik Andersen 91.1
Mrazek 91.1
Ullmark 91.1
Grubauer 91.8
My point... is that goalies have up and down years and I'd probably not go hunting for those (or depend on) those tenders just coming off great years... especially those up in age... as those stats could just as quickly (and often do) revert back to the mean.
If you would have told me 3 years ago that Holtby and Bobrovsky would have a lower 3 year save pct than Koskinen I'd have said you were crazy... but there's the numbers.
My guess is that Smith reverts back to the mean after his spectacular year... and Koskinen likely rebounds back towards his mean as well after a less than spectacular year (understatement).
Stalock is probably a decent bet to be as good as those 2 as well as he's only 33... same as Koskinen.
Saying all that though... all those sub-91% stats are all back up numbers... so you really need a guy that's going to be a pretty solid bet to put up 91.5-92%.
Looking at the stats... Grubauer is probably the only one to have a legit shot at that seeing as he's done that on average over the past 3 seasons.
Smith did that last season but I'd be shocked if he repeated that... shocked I tell ya because other than his Vezina-worthy season 10 years ago in Phoenix... he hasn't been able to put up numbers challenging 92%.
So what would I have done?
Kept one of Smith/Stalock/Koskinen as a backup and throw money & term at Grubauer... UNLESS the Oilers think they have a young'un in the minors that's close to catching fire and rising up into potential NHL starter material... if that's the case then I'd step down a notch and throw less money/term at an Ullmark/Mrazek either of which would be a moderately priced plug-in on the roster for the next 2-3 years until that young'un is ready to take the NHL by storm.
Frederik Andersen isn't an awful choice either for that "lesser money/lesser term" option BUT would he sign for that lesser money and lesser term on what could be his last juicy NHL contract? If he would then ok... but he's the oldest of that group of 3 "cheaper options" and the one I'd have a little less confidence in because of age/injuries/a few years closer to possible downwards regression etc.
If I could just wipe the slate clean... I'd go with a Grubauer/Stalock pairing.
Smith 90.7
Koskinen 90.8
Stalock 90.7
A few others just for comparison over that time span:
Talbot 90.8
Murray 90.7
Rittich 90.8
Bobrovsky 90.7
Dubnyk 90.4
Holtby 90.2
Others being mentioned in the thread:
Frederik Andersen 91.1
Mrazek 91.1
Ullmark 91.1
Grubauer 91.8
My point... is that goalies have up and down years and I'd probably not go hunting for those (or depend on) those tenders just coming off great years... especially those up in age... as those stats could just as quickly (and often do) revert back to the mean.
If you would have told me 3 years ago that Holtby and Bobrovsky would have a lower 3 year save pct than Koskinen I'd have said you were crazy... but there's the numbers.
My guess is that Smith reverts back to the mean after his spectacular year... and Koskinen likely rebounds back towards his mean as well after a less than spectacular year (understatement).
Stalock is probably a decent bet to be as good as those 2 as well as he's only 33... same as Koskinen.
Saying all that though... all those sub-91% stats are all back up numbers... so you really need a guy that's going to be a pretty solid bet to put up 91.5-92%.
Looking at the stats... Grubauer is probably the only one to have a legit shot at that seeing as he's done that on average over the past 3 seasons.
Smith did that last season but I'd be shocked if he repeated that... shocked I tell ya because other than his Vezina-worthy season 10 years ago in Phoenix... he hasn't been able to put up numbers challenging 92%.
So what would I have done?
Kept one of Smith/Stalock/Koskinen as a backup and throw money & term at Grubauer... UNLESS the Oilers think they have a young'un in the minors that's close to catching fire and rising up into potential NHL starter material... if that's the case then I'd step down a notch and throw less money/term at an Ullmark/Mrazek either of which would be a moderately priced plug-in on the roster for the next 2-3 years until that young'un is ready to take the NHL by storm.
Frederik Andersen isn't an awful choice either for that "lesser money/lesser term" option BUT would he sign for that lesser money and lesser term on what could be his last juicy NHL contract? If he would then ok... but he's the oldest of that group of 3 "cheaper options" and the one I'd have a little less confidence in because of age/injuries/a few years closer to possible downwards regression etc.
If I could just wipe the slate clean... I'd go with a Grubauer/Stalock pairing.
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