Rumor: Rumours and Proposals Thread | Post Mortem Edition

[McDoused]

The bold is easily disprovable when you compare the Oilers to a team like Colorado.

The Avalanche top 2 line C this year were MacKinnon and Nelson. In games they both played in (79 games), one or both of them were on the ice for ~2271 of ~3799 total 5v5 minutes. 60% of the time one or both of them were on the ice at 5v5.

When those two were off the ice at 5v5 their team had 2.36GF/60 and 1.88GA/60

The Oilers top 2 C this year were McDavid and Draisaitl. In games they both played in (65 games), one or both of them were on the ice for ~1810 of ~3228 minutes total 5v5 minutes. 56% of the time at 5v5 one of those two were on the ice.

When those two were off the ice at 5v5 the team had 1.4GF/60 and 2.88GA/60

Our team was playing 2 and a half minutes more per game at 5v5 without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice than Colorado was without MacKinnon/Nelson on the ice. Yet Colorado's depth scoring was providing a full extra goal per 60 than our depth was.

So first off I agree that the bottom 6 needs to be better but I dont think comparing them to the Avalanche is fair.

The Avalanche went 55-16-11 this year and had 121 points. Im not sure its fair to compare the Oilers to the best team in the league as the goal posts. Colorado scored 216 GF and only 128 GA and a 0.922 sv%. They had a +88 goal differential compared to the Oilers who had -14 goal differential (174 GF and 188 GA).

When Nelson/Mackinnon were on the ice the team scored 154 GF and 79 GA for a 66 GF%. Without those 2 on the ice they were 62 GF and 49 GA for a 55.86%. So the Avs were about 10% worse when their top 6 were off the ice.

When McDavid/Draisaitl were on the ice the team scored 119 GF and 102 GA for a 53.8 GF%. Our top 6 scored almost 13% less than the Avs. So its not just the bottom 6 being worse than the Avs, it was the whole team. If we expect the same type of variance (10%) as the Avs from the top 6 to the bottom 6, it would be realslistic to expect that our bottom 6 would be around 43.8 GF%.

Unfortunaltey, our bottom 6 falls short Without McDrai on the ice they were 55 GF and 86 GA for a brutal 39.01%. Thats obviously horrible. However, if you look at their expected numbers they were 48.18 xGF%. A big reason why was that they had a .880 sv% and a 6.92 shooting percentage.

What's even worse is go look at the bottom 6 numbers from prior to the Olympic break and after. You can see that it improved significantly when we added Dickinson and Samanski.

 

[McDoused]

*Respectfully*

Dickinson is going to cost $4.5m+

Sam O'Reilly belongs to to the Tampa Bay Lightning

Nobody's taking the Frederic contract for free. He signed that contract with Edmonton because it was the highest offer, and he's tanked ever since. If teams weren't willing to offer him that much last year, they won't be this year.

It's going to take a lot more than a 2nd to offload Jarry, and that's before you add the value you're paying for Binnington.

Mario Ferraro, well, isn't the same player these days

Respectfully .

No one should be adding to actually pay for Binnington and his contract. Hes arguably worse than Jarry.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Thanks! Okay, lets say Dickinson, $4.5, a different prospect for Brazeau, whatever prospect needed to dump Frederic. And I don't know if we'd need much more than a 2nd and Jarry for Binnington, I don't think he's a hot item himself, but throw in an extra future pick or prospect to get er done. Still fits cap wise and eff the future, we have McDavid to accomodate!

I do like Dickinson and would be open to signing him, I'm just not sure if he's going to be worth the $$ another team might offer in free agency. If we could get him around $4-4 .5m, I'd strongly consider.

With Jarry, unfortunately it will cost atleast a 1st historically, especially considering he's got multiple years left.

Toronto traded a 1st and a 6th to take Marleau, who had a similar caphit and only one year left. Carolina used that 1st rounder to draft Seth Jarvis.

Calgary traded a 1st rounder for Montreal to take Sean Monahan's final year of his contract as well.

I agree that Binnington shouldn't have much value, but the fact that he had good showings at the 4 Nations and Olympics seems to be enough for teams to think he's still got game. There's a few teams desperate to upgrade their goaltending position.

 

[McDoused]

Oh and fwiw (I know its a small sample size) but here is what the McDavid/Draisaitl/ rest of team looked like during the playoffs 5v5.

Its obvious McDavids injury hurt him. I dont blame him for the series loss but him playing was a big reason his line struggled and went -8. The rest of the team was fine 5v5.

The biggest and easiest improvement the Oilers can make to fix this team is their 50% PK. After that, its goaltending.

Murphy and Dickinson were great adds and helped the depth significantly on this team. Losing them and not replacing them would be big losses.

 

[McDoused]

I do like Dickinson and would be open to signing him, I'm just not sure if he's going to be worth the $$ another team might offer in free agency. If we could get him around $4-4 .5m, I'd strongly consider.

With Jarry, unfortunately it will cost atleast a 1st historically, especially considering he's got multiple years left.

Toronto traded a 1st and a 6th to take Marleau, who had a similar caphit and only one year left. Carolina used that 1st rounder to draft Seth Jarvis.

Calgary traded a 1st rounder for Montreal to take Sean Monahan's final year of his contract as well.

I agree that Binnington shouldn't have much value, but the fact that he had good showings at the 4 Nations and Olympics seems to be enough for teams to think he's still got game. There's a few teams desperate to upgrade their goaltending position.

Its a different economy now. Cap space isnt what it used to be. If thats the cost, you just hold onto Jarry for 1 more year.

Goalies ae such voodoo. Just go our and grab Levi, Cossa and whoever else you can. Keep trying guys and hope Jarry can bounce back. If he doesn't you dont really care because you have cheap guys filling in for the meantime.

 

[Fourier]

I do like Dickinson and would be open to signing him, I'm just not sure if he's going to be worth the $$ another team might offer in free agency. If we could get him around $4-4 .5m, I'd strongly consider.

With Jarry, unfortunately it will cost atleast a 1st historically, especially considering he's got multiple years left.

Toronto traded a 1st and a 6th to take Marleau, who had a similar caphit and only one year left. Carolina used that 1st rounder to draft Seth Jarvis.

Calgary traded a 1st rounder for Montreal to take Sean Monahan's final year of his contract as well.

I agree that Binnington shouldn't have much value, but the fact that he had good showings at the 4 Nations and Olympics seems to be enough for teams to think he's still got game. There's a few teams desperate to upgrade their goaltending position.

The cost of taking on cap space was a lot more in the flat cap period following covid since only a few teams had space and lots of teams were up against it. The cap in 2027-28 will be $113.5M. That is a rise of $18.5M in two years. A handful of teams will need space but many will have space to burn. The real issue for most team will be actual dollars. If Jarry is traded after his bonus is paid he will have $5.5M in real dollars left. That is only $2.75M per year. The Oilers could eat 30% of that and you are looking at $1.825M per year on average in real dollars for a veteran back-up. There will be between 50-60 goalies in the league next year making more. 25 or so backups making more or about the same.

 

[Spawn]

So first off I agree that the bottom 6 needs to be better but I dont think comparing them to the Avalanche is fair.

The Avalanche went 55-16-11 this year and had 121 points. Im not sure its fair to compare the Oilers to the best team in the league as the goal posts. Colorado scored 216 GF and only 128 GA and a 0.922 sv%. They had a +88 goal differential compared to the Oilers who had -14 goal differential (174 GF and 188 GA).

When Nelson/Mackinnon were on the ice the team scored 154 GF and 79 GA for a 66 GF%. Without those 2 on the ice they were 62 GF and 49 GA for a 55.86%. So the Avs were about 10% worse when their top 6 were off the ice.

When McDavid/Draisaitl were on the ice the team scored 119 GF and 102 GA for a 53.8 GF%. Our top 6 scored almost 13% less than the Avs. So its not just the bottom 6 being worse than the Avs, it was the whole team. If we expect the same type of variance (10%) as the Avs from the top 6 to the bottom 6, it would be realslistic to expect that our bottom 6 would be around 43.8 GF%.

Unfortunaltey, our bottom 6 falls short Without McDrai on the ice they were 55 GF and 86 GA for a brutal 39.01%. Thats obviously horrible. However, if you look at their expected numbers they were 48.18 xGF%. A big reason why was that they had a .880 sv% and a 6.92 shooting percentage.

What's even worse is go look at the bottom 6 numbers from prior to the Olympic break and after. You can see that it improved significantly when we added Dickinson and Samanski.

Regarding the bold, if we aren't trying to be the best team than what are we even doing?

But yes, I agree that our top 6 wasn't as good as Colorado's top 6 either. Which is just another argument for us needing to add a legit top 6F (whether as a guy who is just there to score, or a guy who can help reduce GA while not dragging the offense down) along with a wildly improved bottom 6.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I do like Dickinson and would be open to signing him, I'm just not sure if he's going to be worth the $$ another team might offer in free agency. If we could get him around $4-4 .5m, I'd strongly consider.

With Jarry, unfortunately it will cost atleast a 1st historically, especially considering he's got multiple years left.

Toronto traded a 1st and a 6th to take Marleau, who had a similar caphit and only one year left. Carolina used that 1st rounder to draft Seth Jarvis.

Calgary traded a 1st rounder for Montreal to take Sean Monahan's final year of his contract as well.

I agree that Binnington shouldn't have much value, but the fact that he had good showings at the 4 Nations and Olympics seems to be enough for teams to think he's still got game. There's a few teams desperate to upgrade their goaltending position.

You don’t move on from Jarry after the worst stretch of his career.

 

[McDoused]

Regarding the bold, if we aren't trying to be the best team than what are we even doing?

But yes, I agree that our top 6 wasn't as good as Colorado's top 6 either. Which is just another argument for us needing to add a legit top 6F (whether as a guy who is just there to score, or a guy who can help reduce GA while not dragging the offense down) along with a wildly improved bottom 6.

Every team wants to be the best at everything but I guess we will have to disagree about whats reasonable. Adding more scoring to the lineup is a nice to have, not a need. We only have so many assets and need to prioritize the pieces that impact our team the most. Lets address our areas of weaknesses first.

Hopefully we have enough cap space to make room for another top 6 forward as our group gets older and our powerplay drops a bit.

I think their is a path to get all 4 pieces this offseason.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

You don’t move on from Jarry after the worst stretch of his career.

You also can't rely on him after the worst stretch of his career if you're pairing a rookie goalie with him.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

The cost of taking on cap space was a lot more in the flat cap period following covid since only a few teams had space and lots of teams were up against it. The cap in 2027-28 will be $113.5M. That is a rise of $18.5M in two years. A handful of teams will need space but many will have space to burn. The real issue for most team will be actual dollars. If Jarry is traded after his bonus is paid he will have $5.5M in real dollars left. That is only $2.75M per year. The Oilers could eat 30% of that and you are looking at $1.825M per year on average in real dollars for a veteran back-up. There will be between 50-60 goalies in the league next year making more. 25 or so backups making more or about the same.

Sounds promising then.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Its a different economy now. Cap space isnt what it used to be. If thats the cost, you just hold onto Jarry for 1 more year.

Goalies ae such voodoo. Just go our and grab Levi, Cossa and whoever else you can. Keep trying guys and hope Jarry can bounce back. If he doesn't you dont really care because you have cheap guys filling in for the meantime.

We ran out of time for hope when McDavid signed his 2-year extension.

we need a goalie that's we know is going to be good next year

 

[Zerotonine]

You also can't rely on him after the worst stretch of his career if you're pairing a rookie goalie with him

Jarry looked better then ingram in the playoffs in his only start

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Jarry looked better then ingram in the playoffs in his only start

the lowest of bars indeed

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

You also can't rely on him after the worst stretch of his career if you're pairing a rookie goalie with him.

agreed

 

[McDoused]

We ran out of time for hope when McDavid signed his 2-year extension.

we need a goalie that's we know is going to be good next year

We need a goalie, agreed.

We have no idea who is going to be good next year. Look at Hart, Lyon, Dobes, etc.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

They are also more likely to give us Cassidy.

Cassidy is a done deal from what I've been told, but ya can't hurt.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

It's sort of what happens when you have superstar players. Team offense runs through them. When Pittsburgh won their cups it was much the same with Crosby and Malkin. Kucherov when Tampa won their cups as well.

It feels like an imbalance because of how offensively dominant they are. If we were to lose one of them, yes the team offense would decline a little bit but the goals would organically come from other players.

I agree to an extend but the fact is last year the numbers were way worse than previous years. Management neutered the roster and we need to get our depth back to 2023/2024

 

[BobbytheBrain]

Cassidy is a done deal from what I've been told, but ya can't hurt.

Didn't you say Knob isn't getting fired, but now you have a source....

 

[redgrant]

Respectfully .

No one should be adding to actually pay for Binnington and his contract. Hes arguably worse than Jarry.

"You wanted him for free??"

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Didn't you say Knob isn't getting fired, but now you have a source....View attachment 1251369

I'm not sure if there's a poster in this forum that's not in the red from their fake sources

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Didn't you say Knob isn't getting fired, but now you have a source....View attachment 1251369

I said from Bowman's interview Knob is not getting fired... yeah those Post season inerviews are pointless, but I was summarizing it... I've been all over firing Knob. GTFO

Stop quoting all my shit. Stop trolling all my posts.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I'm not sure if there's a poster in this forum that's not in the red from their fake sources

There's a lot of people on this board that have "fake" sources, but don't kid yourself that there are people on this board that "know" people.

You think NHL players, scouts and AGM's have no friends? That's naive thinking buddy

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

 

[Tarus]

Never really fit with Drai, was never given a chance with Mcdavid, buried in the bottom six once the playoffs rolled around. All he really wanted to do was fade into the background and get open for one-timers, probably could have been a decent triggerman for Mcdavid who dominates puck possession and playmaking in a way Drai doesn't.

Looks like a missed opportunity in hindsight, but there were two places in the top six where they could try him and the coaching staff and team were very reluctant to bump RNH off Mcdavid's wing.