Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part X

[KingBogo]

If management thought Myers had a long future in Winnipeg, I think he'd already be locked up to a new contract.

I'm sure he would be if he was willing to take what the majority of posters would be willing to pay him. I think the Jets would like to keep Myers but their cap crunch is real, and he isn't going to be signed this far out unless he is willing to sign some sort of crazy team friendly deal.

 

[Neuf]

Ehh there was an investment in the young guys, getting experience, learning etc.

There's something to show for that.

 

[KingBogo]

It's pretty hard to give out options, I don't know who is available for trade or who is going to be available in free agency.

Assuming Trouba is gone, and we don't get a defensemen for him. I would use some combination of those assets to try to add someone like Pesce or Sanheim.

It would be a lot easier to maneuver this situation if we had the two first round picks we traded the last 2 deadlines tbh.

I'm less and less worried about getting a defenseman back for Trouba. IMO Niku will end up being our Trouba replacement. He prefers the right side and sees himself as a RHD. It is obvious the kid has skill to burn and some of the things he is capable of are jaw dropping. And he is becoming more and more defensively aware with each passing game. I wouldn't be surprised if he is not considered a star within a couple years. You then add Samberg as a steady 2nd pairing LHD down the line I think we are then very strong on the backend. IMO the long vision should be to convert Trouba into a young top 6 center to play behind Scheifele.

 

[GNP]

I'm less and less worried about getting a defenseman back for Trouba. IMO Niku will end up being our Trouba replacement. He prefers the right side and sees himself as a RHD. It is obvious the kid has skill to burn and some of the things he is capable of are jaw dropping. And he is becoming more and more defensively aware with each passing game. I wouldn't be surprised if he is not considered a star within a couple years. You then add Samberg as a steady 2nd pairing LHD down the line I think we are then very strong on the backend. IMO the long vision should be to convert Trouba into a young top 6 center to play behind Scheifele.

_______________________________________________________

King Bogo shall "reign forever" -- one of the best posters on this site.

 

[DRW204]

View attachment 202839

i feel like Myers is the player that people think Gardiner is. Gardiner had produced offense quite well from the back-end (notably at 5v5), good with/without heat maps, and seems like he's proficient in zone entry/exit/denials. probably has similar brain-farts as Myers but better at everything else.

 

[Maukkis]

I'm curious what defensive mess you believe we have? When we are healthy we have a very nice defensive group. Players the caliber of Kuli and Myers as a bottom pair is a fantasy for most teams. Now we also have the depth to plug in almost seamlessly.

Long-term thinking, my man. Remove Trouba, and that thing collapses.

Also, for a combined 10M of cap space, Kulikov and Myers are putting up unacceptably bad numbers across the board. Both need to leave in July.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm less and less worried about getting a defenseman back for Trouba. IMO Niku will end up being our Trouba replacement. He prefers the right side and sees himself as a RHD. It is obvious the kid has skill to burn and some of the things he is capable of are jaw dropping. And he is becoming more and more defensively aware with each passing game. I wouldn't be surprised if he is not considered a star within a couple years. You then add Samberg as a steady 2nd pairing LHD down the line I think we are then very strong on the backend. IMO the long vision should be to convert Trouba into a young top 6 center to play behind Scheifele.

I've been thinking along the same lines about Niku for a while. If Morrow/Beaulieu can play top pair with Trouba then Niku certainly ought to be able to play top pair with Morrissey - by next year.

 

[voyageur]

Long-term thinking, my man. Remove Trouba, and that thing collapses.

Also, for a combined 10M of cap space, Kulikov and Myers are putting up unacceptably bad numbers across the board. Both need to leave in July.

I'm curious what those numbers are. Seems to me like Myers is leading the defense, and without Morrissey, Trouba is getting scored on a lot these days. I think we have 1. Buff 2. Morrissey 3. Trouba 4. Myers. The gap between 3 and 4 is made to be a chasm on these boards, but the reality is the difference isn't that great. Trouba is a better skater, and a better defender. Trouba's numbers without Morrissey though are probably closer to Myers regular numbers? That's what I see. Trouba struggled with Niku, has been average with Beaulieu, with Myers competing in minutes, and has been bad with Morrow.

We can build assets with Trouba. Myers can walk so we lose another key player for nothing. If we re-sign Trouba as a self-rental, we lose 4 key assets in 3 seasons, plus 2 first round picks to get 2 of them. Plus depth assets. That's losses that I don't think any team can endure. I think Myers commands at the very least Enstrom money, with more value, and the fact that he wants to stay, is something that can not be overlooked.

 

[Maukkis]

I'm curious what those numbers are. Seems to me like Myers is leading the defense, and without Morrissey, Trouba is getting scored on a lot these days. I think we have 1. Buff 2. Morrissey 3. Trouba 4. Myers. The gap between 3 and 4 is made to be a chasm on these boards, but the reality is the difference isn't that great. Trouba is a better skater, and a better defender. Trouba's numbers without Morrissey though are probably closer to Myers regular numbers? That's what I see. Trouba struggled with Niku, has been average with Beaulieu, with Myers competing in minutes, and has been bad with Morrow.

We can build assets with Trouba. Myers can walk so we lose another key player for nothing. If we re-sign Trouba as a self-rental, we lose 4 key assets in 3 seasons, plus 2 first round picks to get 2 of them. Plus depth assets. That's losses that I don't think any team can endure. I think Myers commands at the very least Enstrom money, with more value, and the fact that he wants to stay, is something that can not be overlooked.

Myers is not leading anything. Quite the opposite, actually.

Myers might want to stay, but if he commands north of 5 as a consistently bad defenseman, why should we want him to stay? There is no reason to keep him around at the money he will command. Us having mismanaged other assets does not change the fact that there is very little upside in keeping Myers around. We should give (some of) Tyler's money to Trouba, and we would look so much better off on the back end.

Don't get attached to your depth. That goes especially for bad depth.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm curious what those numbers are. Seems to me like Myers is leading the defense, and without Morrissey, Trouba is getting scored on a lot these days. I think we have 1. Buff 2. Morrissey 3. Trouba 4. Myers. The gap between 3 and 4 is made to be a chasm on these boards, but the reality is the difference isn't that great. Trouba is a better skater, and a better defender. Trouba's numbers without Morrissey though are probably closer to Myers regular numbers? That's what I see. Trouba struggled with Niku, has been average with Beaulieu, with Myers competing in minutes, and has been bad with Morrow.

We can build assets with Trouba. Myers can walk so we lose another key player for nothing. If we re-sign Trouba as a self-rental, we lose 4 key assets in 3 seasons, plus 2 first round picks to get 2 of them. Plus depth assets. That's losses that I don't think any team can endure. I think Myers commands at the very least Enstrom money, with more value, and the fact that he wants to stay, is something that can not be overlooked.

It isn't that Trouba has been without Morrissey. It is that he has been with Beaulieu and Morrow.

How do Trouba and Myers add up to 4 assets? What else are you counting here? Are you counting the loss of Stastny and Hayes? And the loss of the assets used to acquire them? Interesting accounting.

Myers for Enstrom money? Good gawd, no!

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Isn't Subban one of the worst GAR players in the league this year? I have a lot of trouble with GAR on how it will determine what is a successful team or not. The Oilers have 3 or 4 guys that are top GAR guys and it doesn't make them a winner.

I will say this about Myers, without him right now we would be in a much much worse place then we are. He isn't a top 1/2 guy but I firmly believe he would be a solid 3/4 guy on any team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Isn't Subban one of the worst GAR players in the league this year? I have a lot of trouble with GAR on how it will determine what is a successful team or not. The Oilers have 3 or 4 guys that are top GAR guys and it doesn't make them a winner.

I will say this about Myers, without him right now we would be in a much much worse place then we are. He isn't a top 1/2 guy but I firmly believe he would be a solid 3/4 guy on any team.

Pretty good chance we see that next year. And for several years after that, whether he is good or bad.

I don't think the models for GAR, WAR and expected this or that are very well developed yet. In fact, I don't think there are even standardized definitions for those terms. Not saying they shouldn't be used, but look at several different ones and then be a little skeptical.

 

[Whileee]

Myers is not leading anything. Quite the opposite, actually.

View attachment 203219

Myers might want to stay, but if he commands north of 5 as a consistently bad defenseman, why should we want him to stay? There is no reason to keep him around at the money he will command. Us having mismanaged other assets does not change the fact that there is very little upside in keeping Myers around. We should give (some of) Tyler's money to Trouba, and we would look so much better off on the back end.

Don't get attached to your depth. That goes especially for bad depth.

Depends on what metrics you use. Looking at his expected goals metrics 5v5 he's second best among Jets' D this season, behind only Morrissey.

 

[Flair Hay]

Depends on what metrics you use. Looking at his expected goals metrics 5v5 he's second best among Jets' D this season, behind only Morrissey.

He will always have his weaknesses. But hes been stepping up lately and making plays that lead to goals. Same as he did last year in the playoffs.

Not saying hes great, or worth 6 million. But the guy is a contributor that can make big plays most bottom pair D wont even try.

 

[Weezeric]

Myers is not leading anything. Quite the opposite, actually.

View attachment 203219

Myers might want to stay, but if he commands north of 5 as a consistently bad defenseman, why should we want him to stay? There is no reason to keep him around at the money he will command. Us having mismanaged other assets does not change the fact that there is very little upside in keeping Myers around. We should give (some of) Tyler's money to Trouba, and we would look so much better off on the back end.

Don't get attached to your depth. That goes especially for bad depth.

I love GAR because that’s how I know that Brendan Lemieux has been better than Blake Wheeler this year...

 

[Maukkis]

I love GAR because that’s how I know that Brendan Lemieux has been better than Blake Wheeler this year...

That's high SH% for you.

Also, good job picking the outlier as a weak attempt of disproving a very valid point.

 

[Weezeric]

That's high SH% for you.

Also, good job picking the outlier as a weak attempt of disproving a very valid point.

Hah one outlier? You think Chiarot is better than Byfuglien? Appleton better than Laine?

You would think a number that was supposed to be an all inclusive rating of a players impact wouldn’t be so heavily skewed by something as obvious as unsustainable shooting luck.

 

[Whileee]

That's high SH% for you.

Also, good job picking the outlier as a weak attempt of disproving a very valid point.

A few outliers...

Roslovic, Chiarot and Appleton over Wheeler and Buff...

 

[Maukkis]

A few outliers...

Roslovic, Chiarot and Appleton over Wheeler and Buff...

It is well documented how Wheeler has been on the wrong side of the puck this season without Ehlers, which brings his GAR down. Appleton got to enjoy that same SH% boost than Lemieux, so there's that. If my memory serves, players' GAR values are cumulative, so Buff being hurt for so long has hurt him.

Also, any comments on Myers being dead last? No one seems to be interested in arguing the point I made, but rather try to work around it.

 

[Whileee]

It is well documented how Wheeler has been on the wrong side of the puck this season without Ehlers, which brings his GAR down. Appleton got to enjoy that same SH% boost than Lemieux, so there's that. If my memory serves, players' GAR values are cumulative, so Buff being hurt for so long has hurt him.

Also, any comments on Myers being dead last? No one seems to be interested in arguing the point I made, but rather try to work around it.

I have concerns about GAR for a number of reasons, which I suppose is the point. Myers doesn't look good using the GAR metric, but do you have any comments on the fact that Myers is second only to Morrissey in RAPM expected goals plus/minus per 60? That metric accounts for context, teammates, competition and time on ice.

To refresh everyone's memory...

 

[snowkiddin]

Gardiner is a mess defensively. Hard pass for the money he will demand.

 

[Hunter368]

Its Saturday today, are we back on trading Laine this summer?

 

[Maukkis]

I have concerns about GAR for a number of reasons, which I suppose is the point. Myers doesn't look good using the GAR metric, but do you have any comments on the fact that Myers is second only to Morrissey in RAPM expected goals plus/minus per 60? That metric accounts for context, teammates, competition and time on ice.

To refresh everyone's memory...

View attachment 203667

I recall EW themselves advising against using their metrics prorated.

 

[Whileee]

I recall EW themselves advising against using their metrics prorated.

What do you mean by that? We shouldn't look at xGPM_60?

 

[Maukkis]

What do you mean by that? We shouldn't look at xGPM_60?

If I could find the original tweet with all the context, I'd post it here.

I assume the stat isn't worthless, but possibly just more misleading. Not certain about that, though.