Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part X

[Whileee]

- Kulikov might be a 2m defenseman. The thing is, he makes double that. Since you are unable to ride out that contract now, you need to dump him. That will cost us an asset, but the alternative is to make the team worse by trading an actual contributor. That July 1st in 2017 sure turned out poor...

- Chiarot, for however bad he is offensively, can at least defend. 1.5 AAV is not terrible for him and his PK ability. We will likely keep at least one of our current replacement level trash, so I'd rather it be someone who has the one quality this defense corps has not had this year: defensive ability. If Chiarot wants a huge raise, out he goes as well. As for the comparison you mentioned, Kulikov has sucked again this year, based on GAR and RAPM. Chiarot has been legitimately better.

- I don't know how the whole Mason thing would have worked out with the help of LTIR, so I'm not going to blame Chevy too much. He could have opened up the cap space for us to have ridden out Mason's deal in other ways, but who the hell knows.

- Myers becomes a viable option at the point where he becomes a trustworthy player in his own end and is willing to do that for Chiarot-esque paycheck. Neither of those things will happen anytime soon.

People can - and should - root for every player who wears our jersey equally. That being said, the track record of Myers being a replacement level player dates back to what, seven-eight years ago, with practically no periods of high-level play in between. It is well documented that he cannot play defense, which is an area we have struggled at for the whole season. He will be paid based on his pedigree, height, and the offensive ability he undeniably has.

We cannot be the ones paying the price. It is not an option. Now is the time to ditch the blue-tinted glasses and be a realist about this. Myers brings nothing to the table that is worth paying him in excess of 2 million a year for.

3.75 x 4 is a bad contract, and we should not sign it. I highly doubt Myers needs to settle for that, either.

I think a more nuanced assessment of Myers is in order. As I've pointed out in other posts, Myers has been our second-best defenseman this season in adjusted expected goal plus/minus. The question for the Jets management is whether that is a mirage or an indication of future performance.

 

[Maukkis]

I think a more nuanced assessment of Myers is in order. As I've pointed out in other posts, Myers has been our second-best defenseman this season in adjusted expected goal plus/minus. The question for the Jets management is whether that is a mirage or an indication of future performance.

Looking at his RAPM/GAR numbers from past seasons, there is a lot more bad than good. For objectivity, those same numbers portray him as having a positive effect on our offensive output, which matches what the eye sees. Then again, we do have Morrissey, Buff, and Niku for next year, so by no means are we starving for what Myers brings. It's the opposite, realistically.

Besides, I don't know why people even bother with these 'if he signs for X over Y, I'd keep him' statements. Both X and Y will be way too much for us to consider, so just leave it. I'd sign Trouba for 6 AAV over 7 years too, but is that relevant when the option will never be presented to me?

 

[Trinity]

Kulikov would not be a problem at 1-2 AAV. At 4.33, he is the first guy we should trade to make cap room for others.

If the management group says that Myers has a long future in Winnipeg, then the management group must resign. Based on statistics, they could not have seen anything that would warrant a long-term investment in Myers.

The easiest option - notice how we are in agreement - is also a really **** one to pick. There is no upside whatsoever in keeping Myers.

If management thought Myers had a long future in Winnipeg, I think he'd already be locked up to a new contract.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Same thing happened to Myers and every other D in Buffalo. Coincidence?

Myers is a hard read, because he clearly was dealing with some sort of chronic injury for his first couple of years with us, and last season he struggled early and got better as the year went on. This year has been his best by a number of shot-based metrics. Is this the "new normal" for Myers? If so, he's a serviceable #4D as long as he has a strong D partner.

He struggled early this year too. In fact, struggled is being generous. But he has improved quite a lot since then. Is he up to "serviceable #4D"? I'm not sure. Inconsistency has been part of his problem. How long will this better play last? I suppose if it is the "new normal", then he is adequate, depending on his partner. But is it?

I still don't see him as a replacement for Trouba. As long as it depends on him having a defensively strong partner is he really getting the job done, or is he being carried? We won't always have that partner for him. Does that mean moving Buff up? How will Buff handle the increased TOI?

Then there is the question of his contract. Too much, too long.

 

[Weezeric]

He struggled early this year too. In fact, struggled is being generous. But he has improved quite a lot since then. Is he up to "serviceable #4D"? I'm not sure. Inconsistency has been part of his problem. How long will this better play last? I suppose if it is the "new normal", then he is adequate, depending on his partner. But is it?

I still don't see him as a replacement for Trouba. As long as it depends on him having a defensively strong partner is he really getting the job done, or is he being carried? We won't always have that partner for him. Does that mean moving Buff up? How will Buff handle the increased TOI?

Then there is the question of his contract. Too much, too long.

The narrative on Myers would be totally different if he was given a long stretch with Morrissey.

Move Buff up? He already leads the Jets in icetime all situations and 5v5 by a large margin, all while dragging around Chiarot.
He is the Jets best defenceman, no doubt.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

My biggest issue with signing Myers is that if we do so, we are essentially committing to him as a top 4 defensemen going forward (and it won't be a short term deal). You can't give him the money he's going to ask for and also afford to pay 4 other top 4 guys especially with the cap crunch we are approaching.

I have no interest in committing to him as a top 4 guy. We will take a step back and it will limit our opportunities going forward. I'd rather have someone who might be a little bit worse than him in the short term but that keeps our options open going forward by not costing nearly as much without long term implications.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The narrative on Myers would be totally different if he was given a long stretch with Morrissey.

Move Buff up? He already leads the Jets in icetime all situations and 5v5 by a large margin, all while dragging around Chiarot.
He is the Jets best defenceman, no doubt.

I don't know if playing with that strong a partner is a cure for Myers' issues or not. There are times when him playing in his own end makes it like the other team has a PP because we are playing with 4 players. Maybe I'm reacting to big events here. His underlying numbers are better than my eye-test impression.

The problem with moving Buff up is his TOI. We have seen what another 2-3 minutes/gm does to his play. He has been much better on the 2nd pair than he was on the 1st.

I lean towards leaving Buff on 2nd pair and hoping Morrissey can carry whoever ends up being the next best option for that spot. That may not be viable, but I would try that before moving Buff to the 1st pair.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Firstly as banged up as Kulikov is, he can crack the roster of any NHL team he's dropped into. He's also not a $1-$2 million defensemen. There are teams who spend $2 million+ on every member of their top six.

As for trading him, in what manner do you suggest we do this?

Dump him like Mason & be forced to throw in an Armia into the deal? Isn't enough of the fan base already miffed over that? Someone was still on this a few days back & suggested the entire deal was bunk & the correct move was placing Mason on LTIR considering he hasn't played a game anywhere this season.

Do we trade with max salary retention to then give Chiarot a raise? Isn't Kulikov >> Chiarot? Why keep Chiarot and still pay half of Kulikov's salary when the team will spend the same amount of cap space, yet in the end keep the inferior player?

Next, although the Jets pressed against the cap, much of that centres on the Trouba deal. Trouba at $8 million creates issues. Trouba traded for futures creates all kinds of space, bringing us to Myers.

Myers certainly has upside. What his detractors rarely address is at what salary point does he become a viable option.

Everyone will agree that his time in Winnipeg hasn't justified his current cap hit of $5.5 million, but there has to be a salary point that would have you in agreement that he's a worthwhile asset moving forward. Where is it?

EDIT: Just noticed @Ducky10 mention $3.75 for four years. Would that do it for you @Maukkis ?

I am not inclined to take a loss to move cap space when it expires in only 1 more year. That was part of the problem I had with the Mason move. We could have saved 1/4 of his cap hit just by sending him to the Moose. Or we could have bought him out. That would probably have been the best option.

No need to even do that with Kulikov. His contract expires in one more year and there is nothing wrong with his play. The only problem is he is paid too much. We can manage for that 1 more year.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

If management thought Myers had a long future in Winnipeg, I think he'd already be locked up to a new contract.

I don't know about that. I think we generally agree that Trouba is being traded. The question there is, do we get back a serviceable defenseman. Losing Trouba and Meyers with Buff developing injury problems, this is going to be very interesting to watch. Lot of variables to deal with after we win the cup this year.

 

[Trinity]

My biggest issue with signing Myers is that if we do so, we are essentially committing to him as a top 4 defensemen going forward (and it won't be a short term deal). You can't give him the money he's going to ask for and also afford to pay 4 other top 4 guys especially with the cap crunch we are approaching.

I have no interest in committing to him as a top 4 guy. We will take a step back and it will limit our opportunities going forward. I'd rather have someone who might be a little bit worse than him in the short term but that keeps our options open going forward by not costing nearly as much without long term implications.

Give me some other options then, assuming Trouba is gone?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

- Kulikov might be a 2m defenseman. The thing is, he makes double that. Since you are unable to ride out that contract now, you need to dump him. That will cost us an asset, but the alternative is to make the team worse by trading an actual contributor. That July 1st in 2017 sure turned out poor...

- Chiarot, for however bad he is offensively, can at least defend. 1.5 AAV is not terrible for him and his PK ability. We will likely keep at least one of our current replacement level trash, so I'd rather it be someone who has the one quality this defense corps has not had this year: defensive ability. If Chiarot wants a huge raise, out he goes as well. As for the comparison you mentioned, Kulikov has sucked again this year, based on GAR and RAPM. Chiarot has been legitimately better.

- I don't know how the whole Mason thing would have worked out with the help of LTIR, so I'm not going to blame Chevy too much. He could have opened up the cap space for us to have ridden out Mason's deal in other ways, but who the hell knows.

- Myers becomes a viable option at the point where he becomes a trustworthy player in his own end and is willing to do that for Chiarot-esque paycheck. Neither of those things will happen anytime soon.

People can - and should - root for every player who wears our jersey equally. That being said, the track record of Myers being a replacement level player dates back to what, seven-eight years ago, with practically no periods of high-level play in between. It is well documented that he cannot play defense, which is an area we have struggled at for the whole season. He will be paid based on his pedigree, height, and the offensive ability he undeniably has.

We cannot be the ones paying the price. It is not an option. Now is the time to ditch the blue-tinted glasses and be a realist about this. Myers brings nothing to the table that is worth paying him in excess of 2 million a year for.

3.75 x 4 is a bad contract, and we should not sign it. I highly doubt Myers needs to settle for that, either.

- Kulikov's contract can be managed for another year. The cost is letting Myers go. I would much rather carry Kulikov for 1x4.33 than carry Myers for 4x5.

- Chiarot's offense is not that bad. I'd pay him more than 1.5. I'd like to get him for ~1.8-2. Not sure what his UFA value is. If he gets the opportunity to cash in from some other team he'd pretty much have to take it. He isn't going to have the kind of big $$$ career earnings that would allow him to take a significantly team friendly contract. He may be priced out of our limit.

- I think the problem with Mason and LTIR would have been bonuses. Buying him out would have cost us 1.4x2. I think that was the way to go. If that 1.4 for next year was such a big concern then bury him in the AHL. Trade MP to get a little cap space and an actual return.

- Myers can become viable if his defensive lapses are cancelled out by his offense. My valuation of him is a little higher than yours. Anything < 3 would be tolerable but there is also the term. I wouldn't want to commit to more than 2 years. 3 tops. I expect him to get 4-5 years and 5+ mil as a UFA. I don't want to compete with that. If we extend Myers for anything more than about 3.5, we are forced to move Kulikov at a loss. Then we need a replacement for Kulikov.

 

[Trinity]

- Kulikov's contract can be managed for another year. The cost is letting Myers go. I would much rather carry Kulikov for 1x4.33 than carry Myers for 4x5.

- Chiarot's offense is not that bad. I'd pay him more than 1.5. I'd like to get him for ~1.8-2. Not sure what his UFA value is. If he gets the opportunity to cash in from some other team he'd pretty much have to take it. He isn't going to have the kind of big $$$ career earnings that would allow him to take a significantly team friendly contract. He may be priced out of our limit.

- I think the problem with Mason and LTIR would have been bonuses. Buying him out would have cost us 1.4x2. I think that was the way to go. If that 1.4 for next year was such a big concern then bury him in the AHL. Trade MP to get a little cap space and an actual return.

- Myers can become viable if his defensive lapses are cancelled out by his offense. My valuation of him is a little higher than yours. Anything < 3 would be tolerable but there is also the term. I wouldn't want to commit to more than 2 years. 3 tops. I expect him to get 4-5 years and 5+ mil as a UFA. I don't want to compete with that. If we extend Myers for anything more than about 3.5, we are forced to move Kulikov at a loss. Then we need a replacement for Kulikov.

Kulikov is always injured. Didn't he injure his back again last night?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Kulikov is always injured. Didn't he injure his back again last night?

I dunno, did he?

Injuries are always a problem and generally unpredictable. D men get injured more that F. Look at Myers' history prior to last year. Then he played all 82 last year and is on pace for 80 this year.

 

[DRW204]

signing players to UFA money for roles they dont excel in doesn't seem smart. id stay away from Myers in UFA

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Give me some other options then, assuming Trouba is gone?

It's pretty hard to give out options, I don't know who is available for trade or who is going to be available in free agency.

Assuming Trouba is gone, and we don't get a defensemen for him. I would use some combination of those assets to try to add someone like Pesce or Sanheim.

It would be a lot easier to maneuver this situation if we had the two first round picks we traded the last 2 deadlines tbh.

 

[Trinity]

It's pretty hard to give out options, I don't know who is available for trade or who is going to be available in free agency.

Assuming Trouba is gone, and we don't get a defensemen for him. I would use some combination of those assets to try to add someone like Pesce or Sanheim.

It would be a lot easier to maneuver this situation if we had the two first round picks we traded the last 2 deadlines tbh.

Stastny helped us get within 3 games of the Stanley Cup finals. And he wasn't just along for the ride, he made a significant impact. I'm okay with that move, in retrospect.

 

[Maukkis]

Stastny helped us get within 3 games of the Stanley Cup finals. And he wasn't just along for the ride, he made a significant impact. I'm okay with that move, in retrospect.

The fact is, we have nothing to show for it now. Having those assets would help solve this defensive mess now.

It doesn't help that this year's UFA class for defensemen is absolute shit after four guys. One is Karlsson, who we are not going to get. The second one is Gardiner, who would be enormous (if his back gets back up to speed, that is). Then there is Stralman, who is an unknown due to Tampa's cap crunch. Chara will probably stick around in Boston. After those guys, there is nothing of value for the higher pairings. Maybe you can get a cheap bottom pairing guy for depth, but even that might prove difficult.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Is Gardiner that much of an upgrade over Myers?

 

[Maukkis]

 

[Flair Hay]

The fact is, we have nothing to show for it now. Having those assets would help solve this defensive mess now.

It doesn't help that this year's UFA class for defensemen is absolute **** after four guys. One is Karlsson, who we are not going to get. The second one is Gardiner, who would be enormous (if his back gets back up to speed, that is). Then there is Stralman, who is an unknown due to Tampa's cap crunch. Chara will probably stick around in Boston. After those guys, there is nothing of value for the higher pairings. Maybe you can get a cheap bottom pairing guy for depth, but even that might prove difficult.

Tell Chipman we have nothing to show for that pick we sent away for Stastny lol

 

[Weezeric]

View attachment 202839

xG is the overused stat du jour.

Here’s a list of some defenceman who are top ten in the NHL by xG%...

Vince Dunn, Brenden Dillon, Colin Miller, Robert Bertuzzo

Tell me with a straight face these are 4 of the absolute best defenceman in the NHL.

 

[GNP]

If management thought Myers had a long future in Winnipeg, I think he'd already be locked up to a new contract.

_________________________________________________________

I think the uncertainty of the Trouba situation is causing delay on a Myers decision. If Trouba resigns, they won't keep both, or cannot afford to. I'm reading rumors on here, that Trouba may be changing his mind about playing here ? - don't know if true ?

You would think that if Chevy knew Trouba is walking for sure -- he would have signed Myers by now. Also Myers could be asking in the $ 6-7 mil per year range, and the Jet's don't think he's worth it ?? He'll likely get a minimum of $ $ 5.5-6.5 as a free agent- depending on term.

Very interesting situation all the way around -- I guess we'll have to wait and see ??

 

[KingBogo]

The fact is, we have nothing to show for it now. Having those assets would help solve this defensive mess now.

It doesn't help that this year's UFA class for defensemen is absolute **** after four guys. One is Karlsson, who we are not going to get. The second one is Gardiner, who would be enormous (if his back gets back up to speed, that is). Then there is Stralman, who is an unknown due to Tampa's cap crunch. Chara will probably stick around in Boston. After those guys, there is nothing of value for the higher pairings. Maybe you can get a cheap bottom pairing guy for depth, but even that might prove difficult.

I'm curious what defensive mess you believe we have? When we are healthy we have a very nice defensive group. Players the caliber of Kuli and Myers as a bottom pair is a fantasy for most teams. Now we also have the depth to plug in almost seamlessly.

 

[KingBogo]

Tell Chipman we have nothing to show for that pick we sent away for Stastny lol

NHL teams being businesses first and foremost gets lost on these boards over and over again. Teams really like playoff runs, they are great for profit margins.

 

[GNP]

I'm curious what defensive mess you believe we have? When we are healthy we have a very nice defensive group. Players the caliber of Kuli and Myers as a bottom pair is a fantasy for most teams. Now we also have the depth to plug in almost seamlessly.

______________________________________________________

I totally agree with Bogo here -- most teams just wish they had a defense like the Jet's have. Did this poster who claims we have a "mess" defensively, give any thought as to why the Jet's have had such a great record in the standings over the last 2 years.

It's because of our defense, not in spite of them.