Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part X

[Mortimer Snerd]

You might be right about Laine getting a bridge, but I think the Jets should still push for a long term deal. I think there's an outside possibility that Laine is an unusual enough character that he will want to sign long-term with the Jets now to be cemented in as part of the team's core. His agent might be against it, but if Chevy can get him signed to a high value long-term deal, that would be great.

The other wild card is Trouba. I'm not expecting him to sign with the Jets, but I wouldn't rule out some creative approach with a shorter deal to keep him with the Jets' core during this competitive window.

If Trouba is gone and Laine is bridged, then the Jets have plenty of cap space. I'm just not sure you want to spend it all on Hayes, who has not been a top-tier player prior to this season, particularly defensively. They might need to over-spend to keep a player like Hayes, but I would be very wary.

Of course I agree Chevy should try to sign him long term. I just don't see any possibility of Chevy making him an offer that is even in the same solar system as what it would take to get him long term. They will be millions apart on the AAV for a long term deal.

The chances of Trouba signing here beyond 1 year are more than zero, but only a little. It isn't creativity that is lacking. It is any interest on Trouba's part in staying here.

I think you are over-weighting the doubt about Hayes. Not that it shouldn't exist, but there is some measure of doubt about every player. Hayes has developed to where he is now steadily over his career. He looks like a good bet to continue at his current level of play.

We don't have an alternate plan to add to our centre strength. There is no plan B.

 

[Whileee]

Of course I agree Chevy should try to sign him long term. I just don't see any possibility of Chevy making him an offer is is even in the same solar system as what it would take to get him long term. They will be millions apart on the AAV for a long term deal.

The chance of Trouba signing here beyond 1 year are more than zero, but only a little. It isn't creativity that is lacking. It is any interest on Trouba's part in staying here.

I think you are over-weighting the doubt about Hayes. Not that it shouldn't exist, but there is some measure of doubt about every player. Hayes has developed to where he is now steadily over his career. He looks like a good bet to continue at his current level of play.

We don't have an alternate plan to add to our centre strength. There is no plan B.

So, what would you think the Jets could / should offer Hayes to try to keep him?

 

[Daximus]

You might be right about Laine getting a bridge, but I think the Jets should still push for a long term deal. I think there's an outside possibility that Laine is an unusual enough character that he will want to sign long-term with the Jets now to be cemented in as part of the team's core. His agent might be against it, but if Chevy can get him signed to a high value long-term deal, that would be great.

The other wild card is Trouba. I'm not expecting him to sign with the Jets, but I wouldn't rule out some creative approach with a shorter deal to keep him with the Jets' core during this competitive window.

If Trouba is gone and Laine is bridged, then the Jets have plenty of cap space. I'm just not sure you want to spend it all on Hayes, who has not been a top-tier player prior to this season, particularly defensively. They might need to over-spend to keep a player like Hayes, but I would be very wary.

I think where the Jets and Laine will disagree is on the value. The Jets want to see Laine push to be a more complete and consistent player. Laine's camp will likely be banking on his overall goal scoring totals to push value up. I think it's likely they meet somewhere in the middle and sign a short term 2-3 year contract at around $20mil in total value.

Connor and the Jets are probably both on the same page. I think Connor and Chevy's camps will both be pushing for a long term contract. I'm guessing somewhere in the #$7m range per, 6 to 8 years. I think Chevy goes for 6 years to keep total value down.

Trouba is interesting because we haven't heard much about what he really wants and where he sees himself. He's helped keep us afloat with Buff and Mojo out though and I can see him wanting to be rewarded for that.

Hayes is a decent enough 2C but I think we are still a far cry from having optimal C depth. And I don't see anyone in our system that is capable of becoming that high end 2C to put us in the top of the contender pack. We will have to keep acquiring deadline additions to fill that hole until we fill it by other means so IMO that is priority #1 for us after we sign all of our core. We absolutely 100% need a good 2C to remain a contender in the league. Trouba might be able to get us that player but I have no idea how.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think Roslovic gets dealt this offseason.

He seems like the most logical guy to be sending away to trade for/make room for a 2nd line two center. Him and Copp.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Good point. I guess I'm just wary about overpaying for a UFA C. Hard to imagine the Jets give him substantially more than Scheifele, but that's what he'll command on the open market.

I agree. But we can't let Scheifele's team friendly deal limit what we will pay for a C going forward. The scale has moved and Scheifele was a good deal even on the older scale.

I always have a hard time gauging UFA money. It seems it is always higher than I expect. So I expect Hayes to get a lot. What the actual number will be, IDK. But I would rather pay 27 YO Hayes than 32 YO Stastny.

 

[Flair Hay]

I would rather keep Hayes than Myers. I think that is the real choice.

More like Perreault, Kulikov, Tanev and maybe Copp.

Signing Hayes would plug a big leak we have. But hes not a 7 million player either. That signing would look real bad quick without two top line wingers flanking him at all times.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So, what would you think the Jets could / should offer Hayes to try to keep him?

I did a projection with Laine at 6.5 and Trouba as an own rental at 6.5 (arb award). I had Hayes at 7 and it all worked fairly well even projected out for 4 years. If Trouba is gone, there is more available.

I'm not sure 7 gets it done for Hayes as a UFA. I could see going to 7.5. I think that is high but if that is what UFAs cost then that is what you have to pay. Some other team might go 8. Look what Stone just got. I think that if the AAV is getting into that zone, the term needs to be limited a bit. 6x8???

Scary big numbers but that might be where the market is.

 

[Daximus]

I think we should move on from Perreault soon, put that money into Copp and Tanev. I'd rather have both of them than Perreault. Kulikov is replaceable. I think Beaulieu has earned another contract so far. Niku allows us to move on from someone as well. We are actually pretty light on the right side so keeping Myers depends entirely on what happens with Trouba.

Next year we can have something like.

Ehlers (6) - Scheif (6.125) - Wheels (8.25)
Connor (7) - Hayes - Laine (6.5)
Tanev (2.5) - Lowry (2.916) - Little (5.291)
Vesalainen (.925) - Copp (2.5) - Roslovic (.896)

= $48.903m

Mojo (3.150) - Trouba (8)
Chiarot (2.5) - Buff (7.6)
Beaulieu (2.5) - Niku (.775)

= $24.525m

Helle (6.166)
?

Total = 79.594m with some room left to secure a backup goalie.

When you look at it this way even with Vesalainen in and Kulikov, Myers, Perreault out. We still likely don't have enough to resign Hayes who is not included in this total.

The next major sticking point is that when Little is in your bottom 6. He is making far to much money for that role, especially on the wing. That was probably the worst contract we have handed out so far.

 

[Daximus]

I did a projection with Laine at 6.5 and Trouba as an own rental at 6.5 (arb award). I had Hayes at 7 and it all worked fairly well even projected out for 4 years. If Trouba is gone, there is more available.

I'm not sure 7 gets it done for Hayes as a UFA. I could see going to 7.5. I think that is high but if that is what UFAs cost then that is what you have to pay. Some other team might go 8. Look what Stone just got. I think that if the AAV is getting into that zone, the term needs to be limited a bit. 6x8???

Scary big numbers but that might be where the market is.

Is that with Connor gone? Copp/Tanev resigned? Kulikov/Perreault/Myers still with the team?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

More like Perreault, Kulikov, Tanev and maybe Copp.

Signing Hayes would plug a big leak we have. But hes not a 7 million player either. That signing would look real bad quick without two top line wingers flanking him at all times.

I'm expecting Perreault and Myers to go. Kulikov, we can afford to keep for 1 more year. Tanev depends on how high his cost goes after this good season. Copp is still an RFA for a few more years so no need to move him.

We have a steady progression of larger contracts expiring starting with Myers this year. Then Kulikov followed by Buff.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

More like Perreault, Kulikov, Tanev and maybe Copp.

Signing Hayes would plug a big leak we have. But hes not a 7 million player either. That signing would look real bad quick without two top line wingers flanking him at all times.

As a UFA, I think he is a 7 mil player. I could certainly be wrong. I have a hard time estimating UFA prices. But they are whatever they are. You have to pay market value whether you like it or not.

The alternative is to spend another first + another good player/prospect to get another rental. Start adding up the total cost for a 2C. Three 1sts + Foley + Lemieux + ???? (Roslovic, Appleton, Vesalainen?). Compare that to what StL paid for ROR. And StL actually has ROR.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Any chance they try Copp as a 2c?if they can pull that off they save a lot of money. Any chance of Laine st 5?
Esw
CCL
Appleton lowry tanev
Ves little Roslo.

 

[Daximus]

As a UFA, I think he is a 7 mil player. I could certainly be wrong. I have a hard time estimating UFA prices. But they are whatever they are. You have to pay market value whether you like it or not.

The alternative is to spend another first + another good player/prospect to get another rental. Start adding up the total cost for a 2C. Three 1sts + Foley + Lemieux + ???? (Roslovic, Appleton, Vesalainen?). Compare that to what StL paid for ROR. And StL actually has ROR.

The hard part is finding a team willing to give up one a top 6 center of that calibre and more importantly giving that player up to the Jets.

 

[Adam da bomb]

If Helly can keep up this level or close to it is he worth his contract?

 

[Daximus]

If Helly can keep up this level or close to it is he worth his contract?

Absolutely.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think where the Jets and Laine will disagree is on the value. The Jets want to see Laine push to be a more complete and consistent player. Laine's camp will likely be banking on his overall goal scoring totals to push value up. I think it's likely they meet somewhere in the middle and sign a short term 2-3 year contract at around $20mil in total value.

Connor and the Jets are probably both on the same page. I think Connor and Chevy's camps will both be pushing for a long term contract. I'm guessing somewhere in the #$7m range per, 6 to 8 years. I think Chevy goes for 6 years to keep total value down.

Trouba is interesting because we haven't heard much about what he really wants and where he sees himself. He's helped keep us afloat with Buff and Mojo out though and I can see him wanting to be rewarded for that.

Hayes is a decent enough 2C but I think we are still a far cry from having optimal C depth. And I don't see anyone in our system that is capable of becoming that high end 2C to put us in the top of the contender pack. We will have to keep acquiring deadline additions to fill that hole until we fill it by other means so IMO that is priority #1 for us after we sign all of our core. We absolutely 100% need a good 2C to remain a contender in the league. Trouba might be able to get us that player but I have no idea how.

Our position changes quite a bit depending on Trouba staying or going. My wishful thinking still has Trouba staying but TBH, I have to accept that he is gone after next year or sooner. With him gone we have cap room to do things differently than if he is here. We could manage to pay UFA price for Hayes and sign Connor long term instead of bridged. And we would still have a little breathing room under the cap unless a Trouba trade brings cap back.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He seems like the most logical guy to be sending away to trade for/make room for a 2nd line two center. Him and Copp.

I disagree about moving Copp. He is very valuable where he is and will contribute more than he costs for several more years. If we don't retain Hayes he might turn out to be our best bet at 2C, even if that is a bit of a stretch.

Rosie + Copp doesn't buy us a 2C. Not a good one. I can see moving Rosie, if it makes something good happen, like as an add to Trouba to get a good return, for example.

 

[Daximus]

Our position changes quite a bit depending on Trouba staying or going. My wishful thinking still has Trouba staying but TBH, I have to accept that he is gone after next year or sooner. With him gone we have cap room to do things differently than if he is here. We could manage to pay UFA price for Hayes and sign Connor long term instead of bridged. And we would still have a little breathing room under the cap unless a Trouba trade brings cap back.

I think trading Perreault/Kulikov for futures is something we should look into.

Let Myers/Lindholm walk. (Myers walking hinges on keeping Trouba)

Extend Copp/Tanev/Beaulieu/Chiarot.

Give Hendricks a job close to the team level. No idea what but if the players love him this much then he needs to be in our organization somewhere.

Honestly there is no real need to keep Little if we sign Hayes. He becomes an overpaid bottom 6 winger. Can't see him getting anywhere close to his current production playing full time in the bottom 6.

No idea what to do with Kiselevich. Need to see him play before I pass judgement on that.

Keeping Hayes really depends on what we give Laine/Connor and the Trouba situation.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think we should move on from Perreault soon, put that money into Copp and Tanev. I'd rather have both of them than Perreault. Kulikov is replaceable. I think Beaulieu has earned another contract so far. Niku allows us to move on from someone as well. We are actually pretty light on the right side so keeping Myers depends entirely on what happens with Trouba.

Next year we can have something like.

Ehlers (6) - Scheif (6.125) - Wheels (8.25)
Connor (7) - Hayes - Laine (6.5)
Tanev (2.5) - Lowry (2.916) - Little (5.291)
Vesalainen (.925) - Copp (2.5) - Roslovic (.896)

= $48.903m

Mojo (3.150) - Trouba (8)
Chiarot (2.5) - Buff (7.6)
Beaulieu (2.5) - Niku (.775)

= $24.525m

Helle (6.166)
?

Total = 79.594m with some room left to secure a backup goalie.

When you look at it this way even with Vesalainen in and Kulikov, Myers, Perreault out. We still likely don't have enough to resign Hayes who is not included in this total.

The next major sticking point is that when Little is in your bottom 6. He is making far to much money for that role, especially on the wing. That was probably the worst contract we have handed out so far.

Kulikov doesn't move that easily. Either we have to pay someone to take him or we have to retain salary. If we retain, we haven't gained anything.

It isn't like Kuli can't play, he is just overpaid. I think the best bet with him is to just keep him for the year.

 

[Maukkis]

OK, I tried something with CapFriendly, and I came up with a Jets roster that features all the stars we know and love, lacks one I adore, and has cut ties with many.

Trades:
- Kulikov to literally anywhere. This is obligatory in every scenario that will unfold come July.
- Brossoit to Florida for PIT 2019 2nd. Not too outrageous in my books.
- Trouba to Philly for Sanheim and whatever else we can get on top of him. The extras are not important here, Sanheim is. Also, f*** trading Trouba for just futures, because doing that means that someone needs to be brought in to address the need at D. You all know who I am afraid of.

Wheeler 8.25
Connor 6.75 (6y)
Hayes 6.5 (5y)
Scheifele 6.125
Ehlers 6
Laine 5.5 (3y)
Little 5.291
Perreault 4.125
Lowry 2.91
Copp 2.2 (2y)
Vesalainen ~900k (won't be 925k, for his ELC slide changes the value a bit)
Roslovic 894k
+ one extra

Byfuglien 7.6
Sanheim 3.25 (2y, traded for)
Morrissey 3.15
Chiarot 1.5 (2y)
Niku 775k
Poolman 775k
+ one extra

Hellebuyck 6.166
Comrie 800k (1y, note the obligatory raise for a qualifying offer)

= comes together at around 79.5m. With the extras accounted for, there will be ~2m of wiggle room.

I think this would be pretty close to a best case scenario. The only forward worth anything we would lose would be Tanev, but if you take a look at the forward corps we would have, there are ten forwards who are undoubtedly better than him. Is the need there, especially if the extra you bring in can PK? (note that Tanev could be that extra, but it requires him leaving a lot of money on the table, and thus I am not going to add him to this roster)

The defense takes a gigantic hit with Trouba leaving, but getting rid of Myers, Kulikov, and Morrow is an addition by subtraction. Sanheim can probably handle second pairing duties quite well, and Niku would have an increased role for himself. I would fully expect growing pains from that group of six, but I would rather see those than regular pain from 5, 57, and 70. I have not included Beaulieu or Kiselevich here, but I could see Beaulieu being that seventh guy. Maurice has showcased zero trust in Bogdan, so I reckon it is unlikely to see him stay here.

We can cash in on Brossoit. However unpopular that opinion is, I am going to stick to it. The money will be tight, and we have depleted our pile of futures (and it will be depleted even more, once they have to pay to get rid of Kulikov's corpse). This is a move made to recoup some of those assets, and it also gets Comrie a spot as the backup. I don't think they would have developed him for all these years to see him get claimed off waivers the second he becomes eligible for them. The money savings will be very minimal, but when every penny counts, this is a move I would be an advocate of.

And there you have it. These moves would solve the 2C issue for some time, cut enough dead weight for now, and give us another D-man for the future. We don't need to go with bridge deals only to make this roster happen, and there is a chance for us to recoup some of the assets Chevy has thrown away over the past two years. We don't take too much of a step back, and all the core players minus Trouba are retained for at least another two years.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't think a long term deal for Laine is a realistic possibility. I think we would have to bridge Connor too, in order to keep Hayes.

If we don't keep Hayes we can expect to lose another 1st + top prospect for a 2C at the TD next year. Our need for a 2C will be greater than this year and last, not less. Unless you think we won't make the PO next year. We may also want to rent a D man next year but won't have the assets.

I also think the most likely out come for Laine and Connor are bridge deals unless they take unrealistic team friendly long term deals. Losing Trouba is a forgone conclusion and trying to sign Hayes makes sense to me.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Is that with Connor gone? Copp/Tanev resigned? Kulikov/Perreault/Myers still with the team?

2020 2021 2022 2023 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Connor $3,750,000 $3,750,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Appleton $758,333 $950,000 $1,200,000 $2,400,000 Copp $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,400,000 Vesalainen $1,491,666 $1,491,666 $1,491,666 $3,200,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Tanev $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Lowry $2,916,666 $2,916,666 $2,916,666 $2,916,666 Hayes $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Wheeler $8,250,000 $8,250,000 $8,250,000 $8,250,000 Roslovic $1,106,666 $1,106,666 $1,200,000 $2,400,000 Laine $6,500,000 $6,500,000 $10,500,000 $10,500,000 $52,389,997 $52,881,664 $61,074,998 $65,783,332 Morrissey $3,150,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Niku $916,666 $916,666 $2,750,000 $2,750,000 Kisilevich $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $900,000 Chisholm Chiarot $1,500,000 $900,000 Samberg $900,000 $900,000 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Trouba $6,500,000 $800,000 Kovacevic $800,000 $1,500,000 Poolman $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 Kulikov $1,000,000 retained $22,641,666 $19,191,666 $19,625,000 $19,825,000 Hellebuyck $6,167,000 $6,167,000 $6,167,000 $6,167,000 Brossoit $950,000 $1,100,000 $1,400,000 $1,400,000 $7,117,000 $7,267,000 $7,567,000 $7,567,000 Cap Hit $82,148,663 $79,340,330 $88,266,998 $93,175,332 Cap $83,000,000 $86,000,000 $90,000,000 $94,000,000 Difference $851,337 $6,659,670 $1,733,002 $824,668 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That is just one scenario. It is easy to project others. It just illustrates some things that are possible. The way Connor is going recently, he will require more than 7 coming out of his bridge deal. But he may not continue this way. If Trouba is gone, we can probably sign Connor long term now, without a bridge.

There is also still the possibility of trading a winger at some point soon. If that turns out to be Connor, his value is increasing pretty well. 63+ goals in his first 2 years commands a very large return even if his 2 way play is less than great. KC finished 4th in the Calder voting last year behind Keller, Boeser and Barzal. He is the only 1 of those 4 to have not taken a step back. I suspect that he would win a re-vote.

 

[Daximus]

2020 2021 2022 2023 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Connor $3,750,000 $3,750,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Appleton $758,333 $950,000 $1,200,000 $2,400,000 Copp $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,400,000 Vesalainen $1,491,666 $1,491,666 $1,491,666 $3,200,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Tanev $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Lowry $2,916,666 $2,916,666 $2,916,666 $2,916,666 Hayes $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Wheeler $8,250,000 $8,250,000 $8,250,000 $8,250,000 Roslovic $1,106,666 $1,106,666 $1,200,000 $2,400,000 Laine $6,500,000 $6,500,000 $10,500,000 $10,500,000 $52,389,997 $52,881,664 $61,074,998 $65,783,332 Morrissey $3,150,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Niku $916,666 $916,666 $2,750,000 $2,750,000 Kisilevich $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $900,000 Chisholm Chiarot $1,500,000 $900,000 Samberg $900,000 $900,000 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Trouba $6,500,000 $800,000 Kovacevic $800,000 $1,500,000 Poolman $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 Kulikov $1,000,000 retained $22,641,666 $19,191,666 $19,625,000 $19,825,000 Hellebuyck $6,167,000 $6,167,000 $6,167,000 $6,167,000 Brossoit $950,000 $1,100,000 $1,400,000 $1,400,000 $7,117,000 $7,267,000 $7,567,000 $7,567,000 Cap Hit $82,148,663 $79,340,330 $88,266,998 $93,175,332 Cap $83,000,000 $86,000,000 $90,000,000 $94,000,000 Difference $851,337 $6,659,670 $1,733,002 $824,668 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That is just one scenario. It is easy to project others. It just illustrates some things that are possible. The way Connor is going recently, he will require more than 7 coming out of his bridge deal. But he may not continue this way. If Trouba is gone, we can probably sign Connor long term now, without a bridge.

There is also still the possibility of trading a winger at some point soon. If that turns out to be Connor, his value is increasing pretty well. 63+ goals in his first 2 years commands a very large return even if his 2 way play is less than great. KC finished 4th in the Calder voting last year behind Keller, Boeser and Barzal. He is the only 1 of those 4 to have not taken a step back. I suspect that he would win a re-vote.

I don't think signing Connor and Laine under value is a viable strategy. You sign one long term/bridge one. Signing both on bridges could bite us in the ass hard down the line. I also think Copp, Tanev and Chariot are going to likely get bigger raises then that. We also have to leave a bit of room in case Vesalainen hits his bonus money. Not a given but it could happen if he plays his way up the lineup.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The hard part is finding a team willing to give up one a top 6 center of that calibre and more importantly giving that player up to the Jets.

Trades in the NHL are very difficult to do these days. But I don't see any reason to think we couldn't have made a deal with Buffalo for ROR just as well as StL did.

But if we can't get what we need through trade, the need to step up and sign Hayes just becomes greater. I wonder how much we offered Stastny last year? How much more might we have needed to offer to get him? It might look pretty good right now, whatever it took.

 

[Maukkis]

I don't think signing Connor and Laine under value is a viable strategy. You sign one long term/bridge one. Signing both on bridges could bite us in the ass hard down the line. I also think Copp, Tanev and Chariot are going to likely get bigger raises then that. We also have to leave a bit of room in case Vesalainen hits his bonus money. Not a given but it could happen if he plays his way up the lineup.

I think you're right. For the sake of the long-term future, you need at least some certainty over some of the young guns. We already forfeited some of it by bridging Morrissey. Now would be a good time to recoup.

@Mortimer Snerd - why is Laine making long-term money on a bridge deal? What is the incentive for Copp and Trouba to sign those contracts?