Yet he is top pairing in SJ logging 22+ mins.
It's not that hard to crack Oilers top 4 this year. Just have to beat out Stecher and Kulak for it.
Personally I struggle with x-stats (chances) as a means of making definitive claims on individual players, most specifically when it comes to defensive, goal suppression type players. There was a claim here last season that Borgen was in the category of Larsson yet a deeper dive clearly separated the two players. Edmundson another guy who's reset well in LA with middle pair toi and responsibilities.
Ceci's never going to have positive x-goal metrics because he is deployed, with big ice-time minutes, for goal suppression and defending situations. Ceci's an imperfect player but he's second toi and big minute PK minutes that's improved to 80.8% (11th) from 75.4% (21st) last year. His NHL EDGE EV zone time is on par with the deep rebuild team averages. Looking at Hockey Reference, he plays huge minutes, predominantly EV and PK, with situational zone time that tilts heavily to own zone goal suppression. The point share measure estimates a +4 differential on basis of a positive +4.0 for his heavy, strong goal suppression work.
Ceci is decent value for money but breaks down when overplayed in Edmonton. He and Nurse played significant good minutes together but their deficiencies, notably chasing out of team structure for big mistakes (often in critical moment play) burns into memory. The Nurse Ceci divorce was necessary.
I don't see Ceci returning to Edmonton. They need a top 4 definitive upgrade which Kulak has covered successfully after they moved quickly off running Emberson there and clear they see Stetcher as as a #7/6 guy signing Dermott and starting him ahead of the latter to begin the season.
TEAM STATS
San Jose Sharks
PK
80.8% -> 11 in NHL
GA/GP
3.47 -> 28th
G/GP
2.73 -> 24th
PP%
17.5% -> 23rd
Ceci
-6
Last Season
PK
75.4% -> 21 in NHL
GA/GP
3.47 -> 28th
G/GP
2.2 -> XXth
PP%
17.5% -> 23rd
NHL EDGE:
EV Ice Zone Time
Ceci
40.2% OZ
42% DZ
Sharks
39.9% OZ
41.6% DZ
HOCKEY REFERENCE
All Situational Ice Time
Ceci
38.3% OZ
44.6% DZ
Sharks
40.9% OZ
41.5% DZ
TOI
708.2 TOTAL (as of Dec 13). Zone Starts: 64.8 DZ; 35.2% OZ
600.9 EV Zone Starts: 56 DZ; 44% OZ
101.7 PK Zone Starts: 95.5% DZ 4.5% OZ
Point Share (estimated)
-.1 OF
+4.1 DF
+4 DF net