Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

Fourier

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I get the present value of money I studied finance too. But is that how contracts and AAVs are worked out? It's based on the PV of the money as opposed to just the total money given out? I guess so, if that's how the CBA has it.
That depends. They average the total compensation over the term of the deal for nondeferred moneys. So they don't for example penalize a team for a front loaded deal which or give them a break for a back loaded deal. However, the rule for money deferred beyond the normal term of the deal is that it is only charged at its present value.
 

Shizuka

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"$3.5M"

Nice. Then Kane on LTIR would be $4.35M so 7.85M to spend. But maybe that accrual gets whittled down a bit more with call ups, so lets say the number armchair GMs wanna use is $7Mish conservatively. Still plenty to upgrade at the TDL.

Well what you quoted did say "maybe" they are looking for that. Which I think is ridiculous for the mere fact that we traded for 2 centers last year and resigned one as it is. But none of what you quoted confirms that the door is closed on Philp. We could very well see him as an internal option. I'd much rather that then spend assets on a Sam Carrick type that might not even be better than Derek Ryan.
I guess it's just my cynicism but it's not like Matheson wouldn't have talked to or had access to management to get a sense of where they're looking to shore up. We saw very real consequences this past summer, losing two good young prospects with painful development paths who are now flourishing in STL.

Philp is not some 20 year old, he is 26 already and has shown enough chops to stick (especially with the likes of Ryan and Perry, who are extremely long in the tooth). Why not give the guy a chance? He looked fine in the two games he was up.
 

TheNumber4

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That depends. They average the total compensation over the term of the deal for nondeferred moneys. So they don't for example penalize a team for a front loaded deal which or give them a break for a back loaded deal. However, the rule for money deferred beyond the normal term of the deal is that it is only charged at its present value.
Ah so that's the distinction. That money deferred is calculated at the PV. Didn't realize that with the CBA. So obviously it's technically within the rules. Just need a willing participant.
 

TheNumber4

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I guess it's just my cynicism but it's not like Matheson wouldn't have talked to or had access to management to get a sense of where they're looking to shore up. We saw very real consequences this past summer, losing two good young prospects with painful development paths who are now flourishing in STL.

Philp is not some 20 year old, he is 26 already and has shown enough chops to stick (especially with the likes of Ryan and Perry, who are extremely long in the tooth). Why not give the guy a chance? He looked fine in the two games he was up.
Matheson has never had any insider access, nor does he attempt to get it. He's always been just a by-the-numbers type reporter that follows the story, instead of digging for a story. It's really just his personal speculation here probably reading tea leaves from whatever nuggets Bob puts out there.

Your preaching to choir on Philp with me. I liked what I saw in his call up. I'm completely fine with giving him a shot, heard Stauffer earlier talking to Chaulk and they talked as if that could be a possibility. So it's still in the cards.
 

FlameChampion

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Not sure if this has been brought up or not, but this is a direct quote from Matheson's mailbag article today:

Right now, the projected cap space for the Oilers at the March trade deadline is almost $3.5 million as they look for a veteran D (right or left shot) and maybe a bigger, right-shot fourth-line centre.

How is it they are looking externally at the trade deadline for this kind of player, WHEN THEY HAVE HIM PLAYING IN BAK CURRENTLY. How does this not spell Philp? Why the hell would they need to look outside when he's here in the organization? This kind of stupid shit is exactly why the front office remains a sad, bush league joke. Aside from the money it's no surprise Holloway and Broberg left for better opportunity.

Feels like the organization in general hates young players or players with limited experience.

Whether that’s management and/or coaching staff and/or leadership core I don’t know. That’s what it feels like anyway.

Holland might of been guilty of this. But I think Jackson is less guilty since he made moves for Savoie and O’Reilly but who honestly knows. Feels like we never hear from Jackson/Bowman.
 

Shizuka

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Feels like the organization in general hates young players or players with limited experience.

Whether that’s management and/or coaching staff and/or leadership core I don’t know. That’s what it feels like anyway.

Holland might of been guilty of this. But I think Jackson is less guilty since he made moves for Savoie and O’Reilly but who honestly knows. Feels like we never hear from Jackson/Bowman.
I mean I understand the burden of expectations, and not wanting to absolutely crush some kid's development if they fail to live up to it initially. But again, this is a mature guy, mid twenties, who looked like an everyday NHLer in his brief call up. Savoie can percolate in BAK and presumably, if / when the Oilers make the playoffs, get a call up at season's end and earn some NHL experience (and then subsequently remain as one of the black aces throughout the playoffs if he keeps it up on the farm).

I think other ex-Oilers have alluded to player leadership being picky about who lines up alongside them. I get the sense they want the lunchpail type to ride shotgun so they don't have to do the majority of the boardwork, which is understandable -- to an extent. When it's playoffs, and it's all on the line, you dig in regardless of who you are or your pay levels.

I was never, ever a fan of Jackson's hiring of Bowman. Jackson wears this though, since he made it clear he would essentially be the gatekeeper on any moves and that he wanted a caretaker GM in place.
 
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McShogun99

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Not sure if this has been brought up or not, but this is a direct quote from Matheson's mailbag article today:

Right now, the projected cap space for the Oilers at the March trade deadline is almost $3.5 million as they look for a veteran D (right or left shot) and maybe a bigger, right-shot fourth-line centre.

How is it they are looking externally at the trade deadline for this kind of player, WHEN THEY HAVE HIM PLAYING IN BAK CURRENTLY. How does this not spell Philp? Why the hell would they need to look outside when he's here in the organization? This kind of stupid shit is exactly why the front office remains a sad, bush league joke. Aside from the money it's no surprise Holloway and Broberg left for better opportunity.
This is the year that management has decided to be all in. It’s why we don’t match the offer sheets and aren’t playing rookies minus Emberson. They’re all in on the plan to accrue cap space and spend every asset possible to upgrade the team for the playoffs. Next year is when we’ll see the young guys get their shot.
 
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Shizuka

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This is the year that management has decided to be all in. It’s why we don’t match the offer sheets and aren’t playing rookies minus Emberson. They’re all in on the plan to accrue cap space and spend every asset possible to upgrade the team for the playoffs. Next year is when we’ll see the young guys get their shot.
I just wonder what happens if, much to our chagrin as fans, they fail in their goals and fall short. Other organizations have run deep into the playoffs and seemingly have no issues running out younger guys who have earned it throughout the season.

I also don't quite buy that being the reason they didn't match the offer sheets. Holloway implied they knew about the impending offers for months. Yeah sure, some of that is an agent pressuring the organization but how can you just sit on it and not deal with it after all the invested time in these prospects? They could have chosen to sign Holloway at least, since Broberg made it clear he wanted out. The Skinner experiment hasn't worked out well.
 

Mr Positive

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I just wonder what happens if, much to our chagrin as fans, they fail in their goals and fall short. Other organizations have run deep into the playoffs and seemingly have no issues running out younger guys who have earned it throughout the season.
I could see them giving Savoie a shot, but maybe only with an injury at RW.

I do think we are in win now mode. But, management might think that maybe Savoie is a win-now option. We are an old team. Some youth and scoring could be a help
 

Behind Enemy Lines

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I'm with you. When TDL hits and it's time to upgrade, Stetcher is the clear position to upgrade.
He doesn't scream playoff performer in the slightest. He's 185lbs and been on 6 teams.
Not sure why some ppl are arguing we should stay status quo with him
It's not even a question. No disrespect to the player who's carved out a solid journeyman career as an undersized d-man. He's a good utility #7 for playoff depth. It was pretty clear game 1 when Knoblauch/management opted to sign a camp invite Dermot and play him on his off-shooting side above Stecher who sat.

Knoblauch's deployment fix has Kulak minutes +3 avg toi and filling the 2RD hole in key situational play with Nurse. Emberson is locked in at 3RD with top PK responsibilities added. Stetcher is slotted in for 10 to 14 minutes, somewhat similar ice-time to Emberson except Emberson gets special teams responsibility bump.

The beautiful thing is with Kulak handling the increased responsibility and toi in an excellent pairing with a resurgent Nurse, this team will have flexibility to add either a top 4 right shot D (greater scarcity & more costly) or a left shot #4-5 who can ideally pivot between 3LD and 2RD.

Regular season is not hard, heavy series based playoff grind hockey. The Oil have shown strong team defense befitting a window phase team. They're running a top 4 d averaging over 20 minutes toi that drops to 14-15 managed minutes for the bottom roster guys.

Oil first add will be a bigger body d-man that can face down likely big, heavy bottom six lines like the ones Vegas likes to run. Big, strong, diverse and deep defense corps are the backbone for Cup championship teams.
 
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Bryanbryoil

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If they don't see Philp as ready for C, I don't know why he couldn't play on the wing? I doubt that Perry will be capable of effectively playing every playoff game if we go on a long run.
 

Bryanbryoil

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It's not even a question. No disrespect to the player who's carved out a solid journeyman career as an undersized d-man. He's a good utility #7 for playoff depth. It was pretty clear game 1 when Knoblauch/management opted to sign a camp invite Dermot and play him on his off-shooting side above Stecher who sat.

Knoblauch's deployment fix has Kulak minutes +3 avg toi and filling the 2RD hole in key situational play with Nurse. Emberson is locked in at 3RD with top PK responsibilities added. Stetcher is slotted in for 10 to 14 minutes, somewhat similar ice-time to Emberson except Emberson gets special teams responsibility bump.

The beautiful thing is with Kulak handling the increased responsibility and toi in an excellent pairing with a resurgent Nurse, this team will have flexibility to add either a top 4 right shot D (greater scarcity & more costly) or a left shot #4-5 who can ideally pivot between 3LD and 2RD.

Regular season is not hard, heavy series based playoff grind hockey. The Oil have shown strong team defense befitting a window phase team. They're running a top 4 d averaging over 20 minutes toi that drops to 14-15 managed minutes for the bottom roster guys.

Oil first add will be a bigger body d-man that can face down likely big, heavy bottom six lines like the ones Vegas likes to run. Big, strong, diverse and deep defense corps are the backbone for Cup championship teams.
100%. With all due respect to Stetcher, those are the kinds of match-ups that could expose him in a series.
 

Behind Enemy Lines

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Yeah this won't be a tool we are likely to see used on elite players like McDavid.

I think you're most likely to see it on 2nd line forwards, top pair dmen etc. Guys who wont get a huge payday, but could make more this route through teams tight against the cap and going for it.

Arvidsson is an example of the type of player we could have tried this on (not saying he would have said yes). But offer him say 2.9 per year, and then give him 575K per year for 8 years starting 2035.
Actually I think this is the exact tool that makes sense, if at all, for a super elite like McDavid. The model comes from the Cap Dodgers deal with Ohtani who has off-field revenue in the range of $100 million annually so the player can 'afford' to defer big money living large off endorsement bucks. McDavid has banked almost $100 million in salary and earns around $5 million in annual endorsements so he could theoretically opt for deferral to help his team carve cap savings and likely help his own future tax situation.

Draisaitl too was in a good situation to prospectively discuss deferral deal to help carve out cap savings for the club. He's also got decent 'NHL money' annual endorsements as a European star. He and the team went a different route to carve out a salary number that was likely less than true market value opting instead for big money upfront in bonuses (which he can leverage today to make money on versus waiting on deferrals).

I'm not sure we see a huge trend to deferral money deals. Certainly questionable for mid-level players who don't have benefit of massive career earnings and lucrative side dough with endorsements.
 

Shizuka

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I could see them giving Savoie a shot, but maybe only with an injury at RW.

I do think we are in win now mode. But, management might think that maybe Savoie is a win-now option. We are an old team. Some youth and scoring could be a help
I think Savoie will be a strong consideration -- next season. Still has to earn a spot in the top 6, which is where he should be given his drafted offensive pedigree. Don't think he'll see any significant time aside from near the end of the season when they might reward his play (if he continues it in BAK).

Philp makes much more sense as a more mature mid 20s player who is a right shot C, already had a cup of coffee this season and can platoon with Ryan / Perry in the bottom 6 where Savoie is not that type of player.
 

Tobias Kahun

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Actually I think this is the exact tool that makes sense, if at all, for a super elite like McDavid. The model comes from the Cap Dodgers deal with Ohtani who has off-field revenue in the range of $100 million annually so the player can 'afford' to defer big money living large off endorsement bucks. McDavid has banked almost $100 million in salary and earns around $5 million in annual endorsements so he could theoretically opt for deferral to help his team carve cap savings and likely help his own future tax situation.

Draisaitl too was in a good situation to prospectively discuss deferral deal to help carve out cap savings for the club. He's also got decent 'NHL money' annual endorsements as a European star. He and the team went a different route to carve out a salary number that was likely less than true market value opting instead for big money upfront in bonuses (which he can leverage today to make money on versus waiting on deferrals).

I'm not sure we see a huge trend to deferral money deals. Certainly questionable for mid-level players who don't have benefit of massive career earnings and lucrative side dough with endorsements.
Deferrals don’t really lower the cap hit.

To sign draisaitl to a deferral deal he would’ve had to get paid 16m a year with like 5m a year deferred and still have a cap hit of 14.
 

Mr Positive

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I think Savoie will be a strong consideration -- next season. Still has to earn a spot in the top 6, which is where he should be given his drafted offensive pedigree. Don't think he'll see any significant time aside from near the end of the season when they might reward his play (if he continues it in BAK).

Philp makes much more sense as a more mature mid 20s player who is a right shot C, already had a cup of coffee this season and can platoon with Ryan / Perry in the bottom 6 where Savoie is not that type of player.
I agree that if the spot is 4C, that's not Savoie. Even we see him as a center it won't be this year. He would be a RW in the top 9

I agree he's a next year, day 1 prospect. But, maybe part of that equation is to give him a taste this year, which wouldn't hurt our win-now status if it's for an injury
 

FlameChampion

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I just wonder what happens if, much to our chagrin as fans, they fail in their goals and fall short. Other organizations have run deep into the playoffs and seemingly have no issues running out younger guys who have earned it throughout the season.

I also don't quite buy that being the reason they didn't match the offer sheets. Holloway implied they knew about the impending offers for months. Yeah sure, some of that is an agent pressuring the organization but how can you just sit on it and not deal with it after all the invested time in these prospects? They could have chosen to sign Holloway at least, since Broberg made it clear he wanted out. The Skinner experiment hasn't worked out well.

I still think they didn’t match the offer sheet for Holloway because they felt slighted that both guys teamed up to put them in a bad spot.

I doubt they were that shocked that Broberg signed an offer sheet. But I don’t think they expected both players to work together to leverage them.

I think if Holloway signed the same offer sheet from another team like a week or two later, probably a better chance that it gets matched imo.
 
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Behind Enemy Lines

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Deferrals don’t really lower the cap hit.

To sign draisaitl to a deferral deal he would’ve had to get paid 16m a year with like 5m a year deferred and still have a cap hit of 14.
Why the deferral strategy is extremely limited. In Draisaitl's case, they shaved off dollars from what his market value might have been by making it heavy bonus laden paid upfront. Still point is McDavid and Draisaitl have lucrative endorsement revenue streams to fallback on and supplement such consideration of creative contracts.
 

McTonyBrar

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Apr 2, 2018
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Mike Matheson is having a very good game. If we manage to snag him, it could potentially give us the last string we need to win it all

Also, about the Philp thing, Stauffer said on his show that he would not be surprised to see Philp up on the team end of January so they can see if he can handle a role or if they will have to trade for a upgrade (by trade, I don’t mean Philp).
 

SupremeTeam16

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It's not even a question. No disrespect to the player who's carved out a solid journeyman career as an undersized d-man. He's a good utility #7 for playoff depth. It was pretty clear game 1 when Knoblauch/management opted to sign a camp invite Dermot and play him on his off-shooting side above Stecher who sat.

Knoblauch's deployment fix has Kulak minutes +3 avg toi and filling the 2RD hole in key situational play with Nurse. Emberson is locked in at 3RD with top PK responsibilities added. Stetcher is slotted in for 10 to 14 minutes, somewhat similar ice-time to Emberson except Emberson gets special teams responsibility bump.

The beautiful thing is with Kulak handling the increased responsibility and toi in an excellent pairing with a resurgent Nurse, this team will have flexibility to add either a top 4 right shot D (greater scarcity & more costly) or a left shot #4-5 who can ideally pivot between 3LD and 2RD.

Regular season is not hard, heavy series based playoff grind hockey. The Oil have shown strong team defense befitting a window phase team. They're running a top 4 d averaging over 20 minutes toi that drops to 14-15 managed minutes for the bottom roster guys.

Oil first add will be a bigger body d-man that can face down likely big, heavy bottom six lines like the ones Vegas likes to run. Big, strong, diverse and deep defense corps are the backbone for Cup championship teams.
This is a pretty good assessment and you’re probably thinking how management is thinking as well, the two things that kinda make me think it’s not a sure thing is that while what Kulak has done is commendable I think you have to seriously consider if he can keep this type of play up throughout a long series, though as you said their target will likely be able to share in those 2RD minutes with him as needed. The other thing I wonder about is whether they’d prefer someone with a bit more puck moving ability as that seems to have been the key to elevating Nurse and it kinda seems that way as they’ve preferred either Kulak or Stetcher there instead of giving Emberson more looks.

In the end I think you are right about the type of defender they want and I’d say in that case a solid target (who’s not a sexy name and will probably have people around here bitching and moaning) would be Brian Dumoulin. He’s big, rugged and sound defensively. Still skates well and has been very durable. Has loads of experience playing big playoff minutes for Cup winning teams. Still playing some pretty tough minutes averaging just under 20 a night for the Ducks this year and I’m pretty sure he has played both sides in the past.

Another guy I like is Borgen if the rangers flip him. Big and physical, skates well and loves to block shots. Before being bumped down by the Montour signing in Sea, he was trending well the last couple years holding his own against good competition and earning more minutes. He’s in his prime with nearly 300 games under his belt by end of year, I think he could be ready to become a real solid 20 a night guy in the right situation.

I’d classify both of these guys as average at best puck movers but if at some point they feel they need a bit more puck moving ability they’d still have Stetcher as 7D who brings that and while undersized is a competitor who can handle himself well up the lineup if needed.
 

Behind Enemy Lines

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This is a pretty good assessment and you’re probably thinking how management is thinking as well, the two things that kinda make me think it’s not a sure thing is that while what Kulak has done is commendable I think you have to seriously consider if he can keep this type of play up throughout a long series, though as you said their target will likely be able to share in those 2RD minutes with him as needed. The other thing I wonder about is whether they’d prefer someone with a bit more puck moving ability as that seems to have been the key to elevating Nurse and it kinda seems that way as they’ve preferred either Kulak or Stetcher there instead of giving Emberson more looks.

In the end I think you are right about the type of defender they want and I’d say in that case a solid target (who’s not a sexy name and will probably have people around here bitching and moaning) would be Brian Dumoulin. He’s big, rugged and sound defensively. Still skates well and has been very durable. Has loads of experience playing big playoff minutes for Cup winning teams. Still playing some pretty tough minutes averaging just under 20 a night for the Ducks this year and I’m pretty sure he has played both sides in the past.

Another guy I like is Borgen if the rangers flip him. Big and physical, skates well and loves to block shots. Before being bumped down by the Montour signing in Sea, he was trending well the last couple years holding his own against good competition and earning more minutes. He’s in his prime with nearly 300 games under his belt by end of year, I think he could be ready to become a real solid 20 a night guy in the right situation.

I’d classify both of these guys as average at best puck movers but if at some point they feel they need a bit more puck moving ability they’d still have Stetcher as 7D who brings that and while undersized is a competitor who can handle himself well up the lineup if needed.
I'm not locking Kulak into 2RD for the playoffs. Only that he's been a godsend as a regular season quality fix when this organization overshot on projecting Emberson to be a 2RD with his very limited NHL experience (Stetcher was never an option at 2RD as the Dermot signing made clear and his usage is managed and protected as a third pair toi player).

The Oilers will add a legitimate, bonafide top 4 d-man that can play second pair competition and ice-time. I'm not sure what the player type will look like whether puck-mover; two-way defender; even shutdown (though I doubt the latter with the team defending structure holding up well in one-off regular season play). Personally I think this player will be clear of Borgen who was a 3RD on a fairly meh Seattle team. Decent player but I'd say that's who Emberson is maybe tracking to be. Think Provorov would fit well. People seem to hate Matheson but again reset into realistic mid-pair responsibility without mentoring function offers a solid puck mover with left/right versatility. We'll have to wait to see. Doubt the Oil are market setters with their cap limitations and if they keep up their high level of team defending (all 5 guys on ice) they can see how the market opens up with more teams likely falling out of the race.

They did their trade deadline pre-buy for depth d-men with Josh Brown and Stetcher so the player target and their trade assets can be focused on this big roster piece. Maybe other roster help if they feel its needed.
 
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Uindicator

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If Bouchard were to accept 8 years at $10M + $2M deferred and paid out annually beginning the year he expects to retire (say beginning in year 12, 4 years after the contract is up), the cap hit for us would be $11.120M rather than $12M.
Jesus this team is so @#$@ed if they're paying the awesome tandem of nurse and bouch 19 mil lmao . 10 mil for a hard slap shot that maybe hits the nets , were so @$#$ed. sorry mcdavid, thats all I can say
 

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LTIR

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Jesus this team is so @#$@ed if they're paying the awesome tandem of nurse and bouch 19 mil lmao . 10 mil for a hard slap shot that maybe hits the nets , were so @$#$ed. sorry mcdavid, thats all I can say
Bouchard has a grand total of 0 powerplay goals this season. Ekholm who gets no PP time has 3 already.
 

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