Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

[TheNumber4]

I freely admit I have no idea what a trade would actually cost. My speculation is a slightly educated guess. But the price will always depend on how desperate each party is to accomplish its goals. I hope that the Oilers are not so desperate that Gibson would be viewed as a go big or go home option precluding anything else.

Yeh none of us do. Were all just trying it out on educated guesses right. I think use Markstrom as the base example of the deal then add/subtract based on varying factors. So detract cause his track record is not as good, although current year its good, and detract cause he wants out. But then add cause we need retention. Ballpark, I think with retention were probably looking at a similar or slightly less than the Markstrom deal. Which is kind of expensive for a team that's not that desperate.

 

[TheNumber4]

Talbot isn’t a practical option though. Things got toxic with the fanbase and the moment he has a bad stretch it’d be over. It’d be a huge mental hurdle just for him to play here again, and that’s not even considering how his wife dislikes the fanbase now.

That's interesting. Hadn't heard that about his wife. Yeh there's simply too much risk with Talbot, whether physical (he's old and keeps having bouts of injury), or mental (got run out of town), or even performance wise (he's sucked recently).

Detroit does have Lyon though and a bit of goalie log jam. Maybe he's the cheap Pickard replacement.

 

[foshizzle]

I get it man but how do you not want to upgrade this defence when one of our regulars is Troy Stecher? Do you honestly think this defence is Cup Calibre?

The defence is top 5 in the NHL. Stetcher has been fine. If there is an opportunity to upgrade then sure- but it won’t make the team defensively better (maybe marginally). The defence is more about Knob’s system. Stetcher also has 3 years of good metrics behind him. I said it on here, at the beginning of the year, folks are sleeping on Stetcher. My question is why do you hate him?

 

[foshizzle]

Well if you think this guy is a top 4 and can help lead us to the Final, I commend you. I'm glad the Oilers don't see it that way

They went to the finals with Ceci- literally the worst analytics of any d man in the league.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

The defence is top 5 in the NHL. Stetcher has been fine. If there is an opportunity to upgrade then sure- but it won’t make the team defensively better (maybe marginally). The defence is more about Knob’s system. Stetcher also has 3 years of good metrics behind him. I said it on here, at the beginning of the year, folks are sleeping on Stetcher. My question is why do you hate him?

His size could be an issue for sure though. The Western conference looks like it’s going to be a meat grinder in the playoffs.

 

[VeteranPresence]

They went to the finals with Ceci- literally the worst analytics of any d man in the league.

They also lost the Cup with Ceci. We want to win a Cup, which means we need a better player in that spot. Stecher isn't the answer.

 

[bucks_oil]

Talbot would be high up on my list as well but I’m not sure he’s going to be available. Wings are hanging around with 4 straight wins since the coaching change, he’s their starter and for a team trying to compete even if they are on the bubble or just outside looking in, I don’t think they would entertain dealing him. I also get the feeling that they want to keep him as a veteran mentor as they bring Cossa along.

I think Quick is the more likely target if we are looking for that veteran goalie.

I've always been a huge Quick fan, mega playoff experience too... and stylistically he couldn't be more different than Skinner, so if we get into a run-and-gun style game with a high octane team, he could spell in for the more tactical Skinner and give opposition a completely different look.

Having said that, his best days are WAAAAY in the review.

 

[alphahelix]

Interesting wrinkle in Virtano's extension. The Oilers should absolutely explore this in future deals.

wtf? How is this legal? I understand deferred salary to a certain extent, but HOW and/or WHY is that not limited to the maximum 8 years SPC???

Theres no way this should be legal, wtf are we doing if it is?? Are we stupid?

 

[bobbythebrain]

Well if you think this guy is a top 4 and can help lead us to the Final, I commend you. I'm glad the Oilers don't see it that way

I'm with you. When TDL hits and it's time to upgrade, Stetcher is the clear position to upgrade.
He doesn't scream playoff performer in the slightest. He's 185lbs and been on 6 teams.
Not sure why some ppl are arguing we should stay status quo with him

 

[TheNumber4]

I wonder if Gibson will finally update his NTC. He has a modified 10 team no trade clause and you have to think that he still has all of the Canadian teams on it. Not that I doubt the player but it's a big adjustment going from playing in sunny California the last 12 years to cold Alberta. Thats the first hurdle. If he actually wants a chance maybe Rico and Perry can convince him.

The second hurdle is the money. He's making 6.4M for the next 2 seasons. I would imagine that Anaheim, all things being equal would like to unload his contract. Dostal appears to be the starter, and they will need some of that money to pay him as a RFA this summer. I just don't see them willing to eat dead cap for the next 2 seasons unless a team is willing to give up enough assets to do so. I would imagine that they would try to waive him before anchoring themselves with dead cap.

The third hurdle is the acquisition cost. Are we willing to pay Anaheim a 1st round pick to eat 3.2M for the next 2 seasons? I'm not sure Gibson is worth that. I guess the only good news here is that Stan Bowman knows that he can in fact squeeze people. So, if Gibson does want out, he might be able to get them to eat some of this money just to get the conversation started. Maybe he can talk them down to Gibson at 50% for a 2nd round pick and a C prospect.

The fourth and final hurdle is next year. We don't have the cap space to have both Gibson (50%) and Skinner. We would need a 3rd team willing to eat money for 2 years, which can't be cheap. Probably another 2nd round pick. to eat 1.6M x 2 years.

I just see too many hurdles to make a deal like this work but maybe that's why Bowman hasn't done anything to this point yet.

All good points. I would say a Gibson move would be fitting of a team like NJD last year who had no Starters, which made it a detriment to them even making the playoffs. The desperation level of the Oilers is just not in that same category to overcome all those hurdle to fit him in.

If the Oilers are going to make a move it's going to be a Pickard replacement and as a tandem with Skinner. We won't be making a move like we need a bonafide starter.

So on that front, cheaper goalies like Lyon maybe or at the top end, the already gone and traded Blackwood will be the target.

 

[Zerotonine]

We have to lower our expectations on skinner. He makes 2.5 million or so

*looks up sub million goalies like dostal, lankinen, etc*

Who knows what Edmonton is doing. They could be looking for a skinner partner. They just don't ever talk about it.

We missed the boat on the guy who would have blown skinner out of the water and pickard. Blackwood.

Nevermind askarov being available too

If the Oilers missed out on any body it's wallstedt. What a bone head or rather miss that was

 

[bucks_oil]

He was playing well at the start of the season. But he’s back to being a Seive it seems lately, his last 10 games:

.840
.762
.850
.879
.950
.857
.828
.960
.931
.853

There was also an injury within those 10 games.


I guess, but a couple games doesn’t tell us much about how well he would do in the backup role for a playoff run. And then by that point the testing of Rodrigues will be for nothing cause the TDL passed. So if he fails the test, the result is the same, you roll with what we have anyways.

You know my feelings on SPCT in the short term without context, so I won't comment much on that. He's still .904 on the season, which again reinforces the point about (potentially meaningless) SPCT variability in the short term.

As for Rodrigue... I wasn't, and wouldn't, and we absolutely can't, consider him as anything more than a BlackAce. 3-4 games down the stretch for him + 3-4 for Pickard + 3-4 for Skinner would mean ~3 weeks of practice time with the team and a decent amount of game action for Rodrigue... it would also sharpen up Pickard and give Skinner some rest and reflection time...

Obviously if we acquire a legit NHL backup, Rodrigue stays down... but let's not make the Skinner mistake all over again... if he'd come up when he should have, over his last two AHL seasons, we'd have resigned Smith for one more season and not signed Campbell.

 

[TheNumber4]

They went to the finals with Ceci- literally the worst analytics of any d man in the league.

Ceci sucked. But he was huge and built to handle the rigors of playoff physicality. Maybe Stechers quickness can have him escape contact and get the job done, but it's a risk. And I like Stecher.

We'll have $9Mish to spend at the TDL, there's no reason to risk that and not just go and get an upgrade.

If the Oilers missed out on any body it's wallstedt. What a bone head or rather miss that was

He wouldn't be helping us this year. Maybe not even next year. Maybe in the future.

But the Bourgault pick was so bad, you could argue any more instead of that would have been better.

 

[bucks_oil]

Talbot isn’t a practical option though. Things got toxic with the fanbase and the moment he has a bad stretch it’d be over. It’d be a huge mental hurdle just for him to play here again, and that’s not even considering how his wife dislikes the fanbase now.

Was that in real life too?? (I don't live in Edmonton)... I just assumed it was just the prima-reactions to goaltending we always have on HF?

... I mean we even ran Dwayne (Conn Smyth) Roloson out of town on HFOil.

 

[Frank the Tank]

Agree on the priorities (I'd say 4C though, I'm still fine with Henrique at 3C, especially with Kane giving us an extra LW... so RNH could also 3C).

The problem is that every game day we delay, we are accruing more deadline spending power.

We always talk about AAV cap hit, but your cap is actually calculated based on the sum of your active game-day rosters... we were ~$800K under the annual cap at the start of the year, so essentially we are saving about ~$10K/game day (ie 800K divided by 82 games).

So the later we delay, the more game days of $$$ we accrue. Which is a bigger factor in trades than the rising prices IMO. Plus... I don't see the logic in prices rising toward the deadline, more teams fall out, fewer buyers, more sellers.

Yeah, I sometimes wonder if the "do something now" crowd appreciates the nuance of this argument. It should be obvious after the Oilers management has suffered through less than ideal roster situations all season in pursuit of this goal of maximizing cap at the deadline.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

JJ: Oh hello Stan. Just been sitting up in my office pondering about if we bow out in the second round and Connor gets so frustrated and comes and asks me for a trade how i'm going to spin it to everyone.

Stan: Don't worry JJ. I'm Stan and I have a plan! I'm going to wait till the deadline when everybody knows were desparate for a D and lots of other teams are too and i'm going to mortgage our future and pull an ace out of my A55. Count on me JJ.

An hour later Stan is still at his desk crying into his arm and muttering...'I want to work for one of the southern teams and drive a convertible to work and let the wind blow through my hair'. A big sob.....

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I've always been a huge Quick fan, mega playoff experience too... and stylistically he couldn't be more different than Skinner, so if we get into a run-and-gun style game with a high octane team, he could spell in for the more tactical Skinner and give opposition a completely different look.

Having said that, his best days are WAAAAY in the review.

Agreed that he’s far past his best days but for the reasons you mentioned and behind a team that’s been pretty solid defensively I wonder if they could squeeze out that last little bit for one last ride and get some good games out of him. I think he’d be pretty high on my list for a guy coming off the bench in playoff situations.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

wtf? How is this legal? I understand deferred salary to a certain extent, but HOW and/or WHY is that not limited to the maximum 8 years SPC???

Theres no way this should be legal, wtf are we doing if it is?? Are we stupid?

I mean, I guess, seems a bit of extensive freak out.

Some guys might want extra money well after they're done. It's just something to explore. These guys stay around the community and team already.

 

[Cloned]

Was that in real life too?? (I don't live in Edmonton)... I just assumed it was just the prima-reactions to goaltending we always have on HF?

... I mean we even ran Dwayne (Conn Smyth) Roloson out of town on HFOil.

I believe it was. His wife doesn’t like us anymore.

 

[Mr Kot]

I'm with you. When TDL hits and it's time to upgrade, Stetcher is the clear position to upgrade.
He doesn't scream playoff performer in the slightest. He's 185lbs and been on 6 teams.
Not sure why some ppl are arguing we should stay status quo with him

I think he can reasonably be replaced with Kulak, with how well he is playing in that role lately. That's a good thing because we may not have to pay the cost for a 4d and instead replace Kulaks previous slot in the bottom pair with another one. Well, assuming you want to risk having Kulak in the top 4.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Going back to the Red Wings, they have 2 guys that are good fits for the Oilers, they come with concerns, but adding them at the deadline would make the the Oilers a better team, the question is if the Wings are willing to move them.

Jeff Petry and Alex Lyon.

Both pending UFAs and would make the overall depth better. I know Petry is getting old, but he still skates well, and as a 4/5 guy, he can more that put up his role and Lyon is just a better NHL goalie than Pickard, no question.

 

[bucks_oil]

We'll have $9Mish to spend at the TDL, there's no reason to risk that and not just go and get an upgrade.

Where are you getting $9M. That was the theoretical max at the start of the season if:
1) Kane remained out - has their been a material update on this?
2) We stayed with a lean, 21-man roster... but my understanding is that we carried 22 for most of Nov/Dec, so we didn't accrue as much.

Anyone have a trustworthy cap projection site? CapFriendly is gone and I'm not sure PuckPedia accounts for <22-man rosters... it's projecting us to only have $1M TDL-space before accounting for Kane.

 

[TheNumber4]

You know my feelings on SPCT in the short term without context, so I won't comment much on that. He's still .904 on the season, which again reinforces the point about (potentially meaningless) SPCT variability in the short term.

As for Rodrigue... I wasn't, and wouldn't, and we absolutely can't, consider him as anything more than a BlackAce. 3-4 games down the stretch for him + 3-4 for Pickard + 3-4 for Skinner would mean ~3 weeks of practice time with the team and a decent amount of game action for Rodrigue... it would also sharpen up Pickard and give Skinner some rest and reflection time...

Obviously if we acquire a legit NHL backup, Rodrigue stays down... but let's not make the Skinner mistake all over again... if he'd come up when he should have, over his last two AHL seasons, we'd have resigned Smith for one more season and not signed Campbell.

Well longer samples are always better than short samples for sure. But short samples can indicate a trend to keep an eye on. Since we aren't trading to get a bonafide starter of the future in Talbot, and moreso trading for a fill in that can potentially be a hot hand... that trend is something we need to keep an eye on.

If we can call him up and keep him up as a black ace, sure I guess it's no risk to lose him. If it can be done.

I think Smith was done done no matter what. But yeh, if Skinner came up earlier maybe management is more confident and doesn't feel the need to blow thier load on Campbell. Although I would argue and I argued at the time that we should have gone with a cheap tandem with Skinner regardless. Skinner did show well in a short spurt already back then.

 

[bucks_oil]

JJ: Oh hello Stan. Just been sitting up in my office pondering about if we bow out in the second round and Connor gets so frustrated and comes and asks me for a trade how i'm going to spin it to everyone.

Stan: Don't worry JJ. I'm Stan and I have a plan! I'm going to wait till the deadline when everybody knows were desparate for a D and lots of other teams are too and i'm going to mortgage our future and pull an ace out of my A55. Count on me JJ.

JJ: Ok, Stan... I trust you, but all the same, could you ask your intern Scrapin Ice to bring in his excel model and let's map out when is the best time for us to start spending our accrued cap.

Stan: Scrapin... you heard the man!

Scrapin Ice: What's an excel model... are they like Victoria Secret?

 

[TheNumber4]

wtf? How is this legal? I understand deferred salary to a certain extent, but HOW and/or WHY is that not limited to the maximum 8 years SPC???

Theres no way this should be legal, wtf are we doing if it is?? Are we stupid?

That's BS in my books. But apparently it's pretty hard to pull off and very rare. This is the first time salary deferral has been used on multiple years to reduce the cap him near 1.5M. Shouldn't really blame Oilers management for not doing it, since no other teams do it too at this level anyways. But I wouldnt mind if the Oilers f***ed around with the cap like this.

I read this explainer here:

https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/deferred#:~:text=Deferred%20compensation%20in%20NHL%20contracts,players'%20preference%20for%20immediate%20earnings.