Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

[Mr Positive]

Even if the Oilers acquired like Talbot again to be a 1A/B or Gibson @50% they still wouldn't be spending a lot on goaltending. 2.6 + 2.5 mill (Talbot) is barely 5 million total.

Plus it wouldn't cost a ton to get the retention down to a 1.25 aav for Talbot. If it's a flop, then oh well. The same is true for anyone we trade for, in any positon

 

[foshizzle]

*when

Unfortunately we all know it will happen. He can't be relied upon for a full 2.5 month playoff grind. That's just facts. We need a guy that can go when he turns into a pumpkin.

He has shit the bed 2 years in a row. Woodcroft was just too stubborn to start Campbell.

 

[foshizzle]

Our D core is not good enough and no it hasn’t played well all year. Nurse and Kulak have been great standouts with Emberson being decent. Bouchard and Ekholm have not been up to their usual level yet

What are you talking about? The Oilers are a top 5 defensive team in the NHL. I’ve come to the conclusion that you just consolidate all the opinions of the people on your algorithm and just pass it off as your own without doing any actual analysis yourself.

NHL Team Stats

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Seems like every coach, even “new school” ones like Knob, have stubborn blindspots

Guess JJ and Knob weren’t on the same page with that transaction. Waste of a player

It only that- but the signing of Skinner prevented the Oilers matching on Holloway

 

[foshizzle]

RNH on the 3rd line wouldn't be terrible at this point. He's not contributing like a 1st line player 5 on 5 this year anyways, and you would think the team would have the pieces up front to ice a 3rd line that could tilt the ice. It would also push Henrique and company to a 4th line matchup.

RNH has never been a good 5v5 player. He just gets the benefit of the doubt

 

[foshizzle]

Not sure how much it is the coach and how much it is McDavid.
Pretty sure McD would prefer Nuge over Skinner as his linemate. RNH is pretty much the only winger that can keep up the heavy TOI and cover for McDavid defensively.

RNH’s defense is highly overrated. McDavid with another winger has no impact on the defensive play on that line. For all the Bouchard haters- watch how many times the puck ends up on his stick in the neutral or D zone and the outlet goes to McDavid

McDavid's been the one on that line doing all the back checking this season by my eye.

You are bang on.

 

[Soundwave]

Bouchard is having a poor season by the standard he set last year, but it's not the worst thing in the world I suppose. He's going to cost himself a lot of money. If a player is going to show their warts, I'd rather they do it in a contract year.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Jeff Skinner a healthy scratch. Let's hope he has asked for a trade

 

[TheNumber4]

This is what he is. Barely average. Will he get to an above average and break the 900 barrier?

Facts are facts. Edmonton has below average goaltending and it hurts a few guys tummys here when they read this.

Pathetic for a upper contending team. On top of that, they refuse to give the guy with better stats more starts

Just a brain rot/braindead org when it comes to goalies

2 year sample size he’s actually slightly above average going by save percentage. And yes, he is trending to be above average and be what he is for the 3rd year in a row. So those are the actual facts, if we want to talk facts.

 

[Fourier]

What are you talking about? The Oilers are a top 5 defensive team in the NHL. I’ve come to the conclusion that you just consolidate all the opinions of the people on your algorithm and just pass it off as your own without doing any actual analysis yourself.

NHL Team Stats

Stats and Graphs For All NHL Teams

moneypuck.com

It only that- but the signing of Skinner prevented the Oilers matching on Holloway

They actually set themselves up to match Holloway when they traded Ceci. They just decided not to do it. Instead they chose to bank cap space and go with cheaper replacements. Now had they not signed Skinner I suspect that they would have matched one or both of the players.

 

[TB12]

2 year sample size he’s actually slightly above average going by save percentage. And yes, he is trending to be above average and be what he is for the 3rd year in a row. So those are the actual facts, if we want to talk facts.

Behind one of the absolute best D groups in the entire league at limiting chances. Facts. Imagine Skinner behind any of the worse D groups in the league?

 

[TheNumber4]

Behind one of the absolute best D groups in the entire league at limiting chances. Facts. Imagine Skinner behind any of the worse D groups in the league?

Lots more shots to inflate. Team effects are hard to predict but if we wanted to mitigate team effects we could look at GSAx, which has also been average to slightly above average last 2 years.

 

[VeteranPresence]

2 year sample size he’s actually slightly above average going by save percentage. And yes, he is trending to be above average and be what he is for the 3rd year in a row. So those are the actual facts, if we want to talk facts.

Facts:

-74th in Goals Saved Above Expected (36th last year)
-59th in Save Percentage Above Expected (42nd last year)
-74th in WAR (37th last year)
-70th in Low Danger Save Percentage Above Expected (53rd last year)

That would be a second straight year of well below-average performance. But sure, let's focus on his save percentage from three seasons ago.

 

[TheNumber4]

Facts:

-74th in Goals Saved Above Expected (36th last year)
-59th in Save Percentage Above Expected (42nd last year)
-74th in WAR (37th last year)
-70th in Low Danger Save Percentage Above Expected (53rd last year)

That would be a second straight year of well below-average performance. But sure, let's focus on his save percentage from three seasons ago.

Season ain’t over yet. Could have presented those facts 20 games into last season, and they would have meant nothing.

 

[VeteranPresence]

Season ain’t over yet. Could have presented those facts 20 games into last season, and they would have meant nothing.

It's 83 games of performance, which is more than half his career to date. It's a trend, not an outlier.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Lots more shots to inflate. Team effects are hard to predict but if we wanted to mitigate team effects we could look at GSAx, which has also been average to slightly above average last 2 years.

I would just like to point out that although Skinner was above league average for GSAx in both 2022-23 and 2023-24, if you limit it to goalies who played more than 41 games (aka starting goalie workload) he drops into the league average to slightly below league average range. And this year has been genuinely terrible. Among starting goalies, only Georgiev, Ersson, Swayman, Jarry, and Mrazek have been worse in terms of GSAx. He's certainly nowhere near as bad as genuinely terrible goalies like Jack Campbell, John Gibson, Philip Grubauer etc, but the reality is that he's at best a league average goalie with lots of variance in his game.

The actual issue is that the guys clearly better than him the past 3 seasons are rarely ever available for trade (only Ullmark was moved).

 

[TheNumber4]

It's 83 games of performance, which is more than half his career to date. It's a trend, not an outlier.

Captured by better stats, all inclusive stats, he’s still more likely to hit his average performance than not. That’s what he is, average.

 

[VeteranPresence]

Captured by better stats, all inclusive stats, he’s still more likely to hit his average performance than not. That’s what he is, average.

"The one number that agrees with me is the better stat, none of the others which coincidentally don't are trash".

 

[TheNumber4]

"The one number that agrees with me is the better stat, none of the others which coincidentally don't are trash".

That’s more so what you did. Longer samples > shorter samples. GSAx > all the singular components that go into GSAx.

 

[VeteranPresence]

That’s more so what you did. Longer samples > shorter samples. GSAx > all the singular components that go into GSAx.

83 games > 64 games, so no. GSAx is, again, 74th this year... which is not at all "average" in a league where 89 goalies have played a game lol.

 

[TheNumber4]

83 games > 64 games, so no. GSAx is, again, 74th this year... which is not at all "average" in a league where 89 goalies have played a game lol.

3 years > 83 > 64 games.

 

[VeteranPresence]

3 years > 83 > 64 games.

If this was how it worked, Corey Perry would be still be a 40-point player. He is not, because stats from three years ago do not matter today. I have no idea why you think you need to defend Skinner but there's nothing from the bulk of his games in the NHL that scream starter (or even backup).

 

[TheNumber4]

If this was how it worked, Corey Perry would be still be a 40-point player. He is not, because stats from three years ago do not matter today. I have no idea why you think you need to defend Skinner but there's nothing from the bulk of his games in the NHL that scream starter (or even backup).

Oh we’re talking recency then? Cool if that’s the case, Skinner has been above average for half this season.

 

[MessierII]

If this was how it worked, Corey Perry would be still be a 40-point player. He is not, because stats from three years ago do not matter today. I have no idea why you think you need to defend Skinner but there's nothing from the bulk of his games in the NHL that scream starter (or even backup).

We’re not talking about a late 30’s guy here

 

[VeteranPresence]

Oh we’re talking recency then? Cool if that’s the case, Skinner has been above average for half this season.

Again, what is "average" about a slew of numbers in the bottom 20th percentile of the NHL? You keep trying to change your argument as you're called out on them but no one is fooled.

 

[TheNumber4]

Again, what is "average" about a slew of numbers in the bottom 20th percentile of the NHL? You keep trying to change your argument as you're called out on them but no one is fooled.

Save percentage and GSAx over a long sample. The numbers that capture the “slew” of numbers you are cherry picking.