Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

[Cloned]

Kreider's the kind of one shot scorer I wish the Oilers had. This team is loaded with overpassers. I'd like to have a guy who just buries his head and shoots.

Kreider is cooked this year. There’s a reason he’s being scratched.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I worried about hit foot speed in relation to his 200 ft game as a Center. But with how well Brown and Janny are playing, driving play, and skating hard. Henriques net front presence and smarts is a huge plus. He knows how to get open in that hard area for chances. Something Clouder didn’t do enough of.

Have to say its somewhat reminiscent of some of the Vet Depth lines teams like the Dallas Stars used to have precap. I was not at all convinced this gambit works here because we hadn't had the coaching staff to carefully deploy minutes before. Now all lines are getting the right mix of minutes, and this is working for all. Drai can play hard every shift because he's limited to 21 minutes, so Is McD who can play any minutes. What this does of course is give other players and lines more minutes down the lineup. Makes them feel involved. Having vet players together is more predictable and the 3 mentioned can play within their games and make some savvy vet plays. Janmark is having a legend season. So happy he seems to be 100% again and work rate quite incredible every game. He's giving us his playoff level of play. I hope he can sustain it, he's the motor often. Guy must be in fantastic shape. Henrique built like a tank as well. Brown has been better this year and finding some open men, making some plays.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Janmark-Henrique-Brown have a 58.7% xGF together.

Context matters. Getting slaughtered with Derek Ryan and Josh Brown for 10 minutes isn't any indicator on the rest of his season.

If you want to delete all of Adam Henrique's minutes with Jeff Skinner and use the ~10 game sample size with Janmark and Brown to judge his season that's fine, Skinner is an awful player and nobody would argue otherwise. Just be consistent and don't bash players like Broberg and Holloway who see their numbers tank with players like Parayko and are in far less favourable situations overall.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I worried about hit foot speed in relation to his 200 ft game as a Center. But with how well Brown and Janny are playing, driving play, and skating hard. Henriques net front presence and smarts is a huge plus. He knows how to get open in that hard area for chances. Something Clouder didn’t do enough of.

Henrique does all of these well, plus the fact that he’s a much better wall player than McLeod, which is supremely important. McLeod was rather soft along the walls in the Dzone and it got him in trouble in the playoffs. I’m not saying Henrique is a bad player. He does the things you mentioned very well. He’s simply not a 3C. He can’t drive a line at this age.

Janmark had a 50% xgf last year and this year it’s tanked to 43%, and his main centre is now Henrique. the 3C is a supremely important position as it anchors your entire bottom 6. In Tampa’s cup winning years, it was Cirelli. Last year, it was Lundell. Henrique has strengths but his track record at 3C shows pretty big issues.

He was real good as a top 6 winger last playoffs. My suggestion is to flip him and Nuge. If we’re married to him at C, I wager we can find a much better 3C on the open market.

 

[McDNicks17]

If you want to delete all of Adam Henrique's minutes with Jeff Skinner and use the ~10 game sample size with Janmark and Brown to judge his season that's fine, Skinner is an awful player and nobody would argue otherwise. Just be consistent and don't bash players like Broberg and Holloway who see their numbers tank with players like Parayko and are in far less favourable situations overall.

Yeah, it's sure tough playing with the team's best defenseman.

I definitely didn't have a "Jeff Skinner = Colton Parayko" post on my bingo card today haha.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I am LAUGHING at this Canucks drama right now. The rumours around lil' Petey and Miller are hilarious. What an embarrassing org.

Wonder what rumours are out there as to who will get traded first and for what return?

I know it's not an Oilers rumour but it will impact whether the Oil win in 5 or 4 if they meet in the playoffs again.

I flame them for being a bandwagon fanbase but if my 3 stars of a team were lil crying Quinn Hughes. Lil crying Petey, aand angry JT Miller I'd be tempted to find something else to do as well.

Its on a level of deplorable as it was when the Oilers sold out Weight, Smyth, Guerin, Cujo and we had Comrie as our top producer and Salad Salo in goal. Man those were some dark times. I had to cheer for the smarmy Brick man and the adds which were almost more entertaining..

MIkey Comrie was hard to like. Hillary Duff didn't make it any easier.

You younger fans be thankful you didn't have to follow that Oilers club.

 

[Soundwave]

Knob is simply misusing his forward roster to a large degree.

Skinner and Arvidsson should be taking turns with McDavid + Hyman to get going, we're not doing ourselves any favors with the player usage we have.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Henrique does all of these well, plus the fact that he’s a much better wall player than McLeod, which is supremely important. McLeod was rather soft along the walls in the Dzone and it got him in trouble in the playoffs. I’m not saying Henrique is a bad player. He does the things you mentioned very well. He’s simply not a 3C. He can’t drive a line at this age.

Janmark had a 50% xgf last year and this year it’s tanked to 43%, and his main centre is now Henrique. the 3C is a supremely important position as it anchors your entire bottom 6. In Tampa’s cup winning years, it was Cirelli. Last year, it was Lundell. Henrique has strengths but his track record at 3C shows pretty big issues.

He was real good as a top 6 winger last playoffs. My suggestion is to flip him and Nuge. If we’re married to him at C, I wager we can find a much better 3C on the open market.

Janmark and Henrique w/o Skinner.
61% xGF.

Janmark Henrique Skinner
38.7% xGF

Janmark Skinner w/o Henrique
24.42% xGF.

Skinner Henrique w/o Janmark
39.19% xGF

It seems like Janmark and Henrique are just fine together.

Henrique without Skinner is also starting in the offensive zone only 35.77% of the time.

This is with a 1.008 PDO.

So its quite the myth that Henrique is just getting lucky.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Janmark and Henrique w/o Skinner.
61% xGF.

Janmark Henrique Skinner
38.7% xGF

Janmark Skinner w/o Henrique
24.42% xGF.

Skinner Henrique w/o Janmark
39.19% xGF

It seems like Janmark and Henrique are just fine together.

Henrique without Skinner is also starting in the offensive zone only 35.77% of the time.

This is with a 1.008 PDO.

So its quite the myth that Henrique is just getting lucky.

That’s wild.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Janmark and Henrique w/o Skinner.
61% xGF.

Janmark Henrique Skinner
38.7% xGF

Janmark Skinner w/o Henrique
24.42% xGF.

Skinner Henrique w/o Janmark
39.19% xGF

It seems like Janmark and Henrique are just fine together.

Henrique without Skinner is also starting in the offensive zone only 35.77% of the time.

This is with a 1.008 PDO.

So its quite the myth that Henrique is just getting lucky.

I’m wondering if we keep Arvi with 97 and try Nuge-Henrique-Janmark. Gives Nuge softer minutes , and Rico more speed on his wing.

Skinner is like two games away from being healthy scratched .

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I’m wondering if we keep Arvi with 97 and try Nuge-Henrique-Janmark. Gives Nuge softer minutes , and Rico more speed on his wing.

Skinner is like two games away from being healthy scratched .

oddly enough Skinner without Janmark and Henrique is a positive xGF% player also.

 

[CupofOil]

Great post, 100% agree that the third line has been very good, Henrique could use a few more points but he’s been doing heavy lifting in his spot and been a valuable defensive / PK center

They need to get just a bit more consistency for Arvidsson (promising signs last game) and figure out what to do with J Skinner

Some folks, who quite frankly don't understand roles in hockey, get so fixated on goals that if a player isn't scoring many goals it automatically means they suck and there's also the analytics group that focuses entirely on underlying numbers and determines a players value solely on that.

The reality is that Henrique is doing exactly what his role is designed for on this team, a shutdown center that limits goals against and in his case actually outscores the opposition quite significantly. His lines do tend to get hemmed in at times so the fancies don't look upon him favorably but hockey isn't played on a spreadsheet, that's just one of many factors that goes into determining the value of a player. On a team where the top 6 does the bulk of the scoring, it's huge to have a 3rd line that not only comes out even but actually well ahead.
I haven't even touched on the PK value either.
Henrique is well worth the money.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Some folks, who quite frankly don't understand roles in hockey, get so fixated on goals that if a player isn't scoring many goals it automatically means they suck and there's also the analytics group that focuses entirely on underlying numbers and determines a players value entirely on that.

The reality is that Henrique is doing exactly what his role is designed for on this team, a shutdown center that limits goals against and in his case actually outscores the opposition quite significantly. His lines do tend to get hemmed in at times so the fancies don't look upon him favorably but hockey isn't played on a speadsheet, that's just one of many factors that goes into deteriming the value of a player. On a team where the top 6 does the bulk of the scoring, it's huge to have a 3rd line that not only comes out even but actually well ahead.
I haven't even touched on the PK value either.
Henrique is well worth the money.

Posters see how much he was scoring in Anaheim and think he just sucks because hes not the 50 point player anymore here, because hes in a different role.

 

[Oilhawks]

Its a given that players like Rico or RNH are appreciated in the room if not always by the fanbase that want more glitz and goals and not always the smart plays. Both are immense talents that can score and both are here with salary restraint with respect to their contributions. You don't generally lose games because of players like these.

The only drawback in Henrique being here is that we couldn't have got him younger. But the team is managing to deploy all minutes responsibly and this working in favor of older players and giving them less shifts where they can do more.

Henrique also gives us the constant luxury of playing Nuge on first line.

Could you imagine if the org had somehow pried Henrique when McD and Drai were developing? Would have made for a faster move to contention. He's a great player to learn from.

Was always a big fan of Henrique, wish they could have got him when he was younger as well. Would have been a great vet to have around to help grow the group

 

[Shanahanigans]

oddly enough Skinner without Janmark and Henrique is a positive xGF% player also.

This is a result of playing with 97 or 29, they can raise anyone’s game. Unfortunately he’s way too soft defensively in a top 6 role so Knob can’t trust him. Old Buffalo habits die hard.

 

[Soundwave]

oddly enough Skinner without Janmark and Henrique is a positive xGF% player also.

Again Knob is being stupid with his forward deployment.

Stop having a grudge and let the guy have some freaking reps with McDavid.

If you didn't like this player you should have said something on July 1 or when ever they were pursuing him.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

So why is Knob f***ing all this up with weird lineup decisions?

Keep that line together.

BLANK McDavid Hyman

Should be left open for Arvidsson/Skinner/Kapanen etc. to slide into and give their numbers a boost. I would try Podkolzin there also.

The fact of the matter is we need to get better optimization of this forward group, Knob is making poor lineup decisions in that respect.

Arvidsson instantly has a 2 point night in place of RNH because he got to play with McDavid, why was that not tried before? And it probably wouldn't have been tried if not for RNH being out of the lineup. Our coaching staff needs to be better with our forward combinations. They're not doing the team any favors here.

The team is in the midst of I believe a 12-3 run over the last 15 games and heading into an extended break.

That seems like a good time to try different line combinations to you?

I don’t necessarily disagree that with so many forwards and so much versatility throughout the lineup it would be good to try some different combinations and learn a bit more about who can work where but there’s no reason to do it when the team is firing and winning hockey games. They’ve still got two months before they need to make any real roster decisions, right now they should keep doing what’s working and getting them wins and points.

 

[Soundwave]

The team is in the midst of I believe a 12-3 run over the last 15 games and heading into an extended break.

That seems like a good time to try different line combinations to you?

I don’t necessarily disagree that with so many forwards and so much versatility throughout the lineup it would be good to try some different combinations and learn a bit more about who can work where but there’s no reason to do it when the team is firing and winning hockey games. They’ve still got two months before they need to make any real roster decisions, right now they should keep doing what’s working and getting them wins and points.

One shouldn't get beholden to anything as if this is some rickety team that needs good luck to win games. We're a good team, so enough with that.

Last night we saw Arvidsson immediately score a goal and get an assist when elevated into RNH's spot. This never would have been tried most likely on its own, it's only because RNH is hurt/sick that Knob was forced to do it.

That's just dumb. It shouldn't have to come to that for someone else to get a shot playing with McDavid, Knob is being a stubborn ass on this and it doesn't help the team in the long run.

 

[CupofOil]

Posters see how much he was scoring in Anaheim and think he just sucks because hes not the 50 point player anymore here, because hes in a different role.

These are the same posters that probably think Skinner is more valuable than Henrique because goalzzz

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

The team is in the midst of I believe a 12-3 run over the last 15 games and heading into an extended break.

That seems like a good time to try different line combinations to you?

I don’t necessarily disagree that with so many forwards and so much versatility throughout the lineup it would be good to try some different combinations and learn a bit more about who can work where but there’s no reason to do it when the team is firing and winning hockey games. They’ve still got two months before they need to make any real roster decisions, right now they should keep doing what’s working and getting them wins and points.

We need to at least tinker with the PP. It being ranked 15th in the league at the mid point in the season is unacceptable.

 

[Soundwave]

We need to at least tinker with the PP. It being ranked 15th in the league at the mid point in the season is unacceptable.

Exactly, to Knob stop being a stubborn ass and let Arvidsson and Skinner have some reps on PP1.

If you dislike these players fine, but you should have said something on July 1 then. Now that they are here, your responsibility as coach is to get the best from them.

I think Skinner should be moved to PP1.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Wallstedt obviously has the pedigree based on his work in the SHL and he's 2 years younger so that matters but Rodrigue has put up better AHL numbers once he assumed the starters role and this goes back 3 years now on teams that weren't exactly juggernauts. Obviously Wallstedt has physical tools that Rodrigue doesn't but if we're looking at numbers, I'm seeing a goalie in the Oilers organization that has a potential NHL future not to mention the goalie that backstopped them to a Cups final last season and almost won a Calder two years ago so the Oilers goalie development in recent years isn't as bad as you're stating.

Not to mention that there's a kid in Sweden, Jonsson, who is having wildly good season. The Finnish kid they recently drafted has some really good tools as well.
Historically, goalie development has been a graveyard in the Oilers organization but it seems to be improving as of late.

I'm pretty bullish on pedigree. And Wallstedt has hit several benchmarks for strong elite goaltenders including playing elite men's professional league as a teenager. His fellow goalies in Lulea were mid thirties and late twenties - Wallstedt led in games played. He jumped early to AHL hockey and has onboarded early for samples in NHL before age 22 which I view as solid indicators.

Hard to compare goaltenders across AHL with differences in team structure, personnel and such so I'm not sure about direct comparisons by numbers alone. Rodrigue has solid numbers but I wonder abit about his size. Reminds me alot of Olivier Roy who was a Canadian U20 team level Oiler prospect who was athletic but at pro level his thin size and height was exposed by NHL shooters. Tough to make that jump from AHL to NHL with the high quality of shooters now really throughout NHL lineups. We'll see if Rodrique can make the jump as a mature pro now at age 24.

Agree there seems to be a stronger focus on the goaltending position by the Oilers organization. Think there was a real focus to draft a potential pedigree one in Cossa. They've added a goaltender scout, Pracey is an old goaltender, and they seem to be taking swings at athletic body types including the Swede and Finnish goalie second rounder last year (I'm fairly bullish on both in terms of raw attributes). There's hope but still a lot of draft collateral burned up to find one guy in ten years to play at the NHL level.

EDIT: Just to add, I'm pretty pragmatic about Skinner and a distinction I often make is how their goaltender system (aka coaching) has actually produced an NHL level goaltender as you describe with his team and personal achievements. What their goaltender system hasn't been able to do - zero shock - is convert old, established goaltenders beyond their established flawed games. There's no miracle worker stuff.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

You do remember that McLeod was used a bunch as a winger for Draisaitl last year right? which changes those numbers a ton.
They both saw 30% of their ice time against Elites, and last year McLeod broke even and Henrique is ahead 7-1.
Lets actually look more at the numbers. McLeod started in the ozone 40!!% of the time against elites where Henrique only 23.3% of the time. So he is actually seeing harder dzone time.
Henrique has spent 43% of his ice time with Jeff Skinner 5v5. Against all comp his numbers defensively with Skinner TANK. Like massive drops

View attachment 950338
They are a terrible combo together. Henriques advanced defensive metrics are quite good away from Skinner.
McLeod never had anyone as awful in their ownzone as a winger as Skinner.

Okay I'll play along with your scenario. 2023-24 Ryan McLeod with and without Leon Draisaitl compared to 2024-25 Adam Henrique with and without Jeff Skinner. As you can see, McLeod's numbers into elites do improve a bit with Draisaitl going from 53.7% to 59% DFF, similar numbers with and without for chances CF, both of their numbers are mostly not that different with and without each other against mid-tiers, and their numbers actually fall a bit together against shitty players. McLeod's overall possession numbers aren't actually drastically different with Drai, better against elites for sure which is to expected, but he can very much come out ahead across the board even without Drai. McLeod is a cheat code on defense due to being a one man transition machine and always has been. No player shortens defensive zone shifts and gets the puck out of our zone quite like him and as a result it makes everyone have better defensive numbers. To the point where even Ceci's numbers look good with him on the ice because instead of Nurse or Ceci icing the puck or making a bad pass, they can just play "give the puck to McLeod" and he'll take care of the rest. McLeod wasn't that great of an offensive player and nobody would argue otherwise, but overall he certainly didn't need Draisaitl to do well possession wise against other players, especially not defensively.

Conversely with Adam Henrique with and without Jeff Skinner. We do see that Henrique's numbers tank with Skinner against all but the shittiest of players. But even if we isolate without Skinner and without Draisaitl, McLeod performs better across the board adjusted for competition, versus elite, mid, and bad players alike. The only difference is that one guy has a highly unsustainable on ice save percentage on a team that has actually had goaltending issues, while the other played a normal season. Part of this could be that Henrique tends to allow less dangerous shots (which is somewhat shown in the numbers, Henrique gets absolutely brutalized even without Skinner in terms of older possession stats like corsi and fenwick, but goes mostly even in stuff like DFF and HDCF), but I have severe doubts that we can expect a 0.938 save percentage with Henrique out on the ice.

 

[LTIR]

Skinner-Nuge-Perry should be the 3rd line. Kane to replace Perry when healthy.
Other 3 lines are good.
Janmark-Henrique-Brown should be kept as is.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Exactly, to Knob stop being a stubborn ass and let Arvidsson and Skinner have some reps on PP1.

If you dislike these players fine, but you should have said something on July 1 then. Now that they are here, your responsibility as coach is to get the best from them.

I think Skinner should be moved to PP1.

He needs to try something. Our current PP clearly isn’t working.