Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Pretty big cost to acquire though. Not sure what the Oilers equivalent of Kovalenko+2nd was. Podkolzin+2nd+???

Not a fan of giving that up for a goalie that's been a question mark for half a decade and has had a hard time staying healthy. That's not a massive package to give up but I'd rather save those bullets for more of a sure thing.

With that said, I do think the Oilers should add a goalie that could potentially push Skinner but I don't see a cost effective option out there that's a clear upgrade on Pickard.

I’m okay with that. We want to win a cup and the biggest question mark is by far goaltending. When I watch him I have zero doubts he’s a better goalie than pickard and could be better than Skinner.

Bottom line is we can’t be looking like what do we do if Skinner goes on one of his stretches where he’s unplayable in the playoffs. That is 100% a possibility. Blackwood there’s a strong chance he can take the reins if that happens. He has looked amazing in Colorado even though it’s been a small sample. Colorado looks completely revitalized.

 

[Oilhawks]

I don't think the team is down on Henrique nearly as much as some fans are.

He's checking every box you want out of your #3C right now outside a handful more points. Heavy D zone starts, 54% FO, #1 PKer, outscoring opposition at 5v5, outscoring elite comp 7-1, etc.

He's also tied for third on the team in high danger chances at 5v5, so likely a bit more offense will come.

And with the way Janmark is carrying the offense on the third line, I don't think offense on that line is any kind of pressing need either. Both Janmark and Brown have borderline elite 5v5 production from the bottom six right now.

Great post, 100% agree that the third line has been very good, Henrique could use a few more points but he’s been doing heavy lifting in his spot and been a valuable defensive / PK center

They need to get just a bit more consistency for Arvidsson (promising signs last game) and figure out what to do with J Skinner

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Kris Kreider is a healthy scratch for the Rangers. 30 games in, 11G and 1 assists

 

[94 Oil Drops]

Not to mention that there's a kid in Sweden, Jonsson, who is having wildly good season.
Historically, goalie development has been a graveyard in the Oilers organization but it seems to be improving as of late.

Interesting. Never heard of Jonsson before.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

You would have to think given their situations that by late january both Detroit (Talbot) and NYR (Quick) would be looking for draft capital for these aging, nearing the end of career but still serviceable tenders.
They won't be demanding an end of the world price either. Still would allow us to make a play for a good defensive D.

Interesting. Never heard of Jonsson before.

The level he has played the most at is not challenging him. But yes arrows pointing skywards.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

There are other options like Talbot, who has better numbers this year than Blackwood.

We need a third goalie regardless, or the Oilers need to start giving Rodrigue NHL starts.

Honestly, would it be that bad of an option to give Rodrigue a try? 0.912, 0.916, and 0.923 the past 3 seasons in the AHL on a team that isn't exactly stellar defensively, better numbers than the player this fanbase seemingly can't let go of in Wallstedt (yes I'm aware Wallstedt is younger and expected to do worse). Probably not gonna get a Dustin Wolf there but it's not as if we have anything to lose.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I don't think the team is down on Henrique nearly as much as some fans are.

He's checking every box you want out of your #3C right now outside a handful more points. Heavy D zone starts, 54% FO, #1 PKer, outscoring opposition at 5v5, outscoring elite comp 7-1, etc.

He's also tied for third on the team in high danger chances at 5v5, so likely a bit more offense will come.

And with the way Janmark is carrying the offense on the third line, I don't think offense on that line is any kind of pressing need either. Both Janmark and Brown have borderline elite 5v5 production from the bottom six right now.

People dont know what 3m gets you now days it seems.

Hes not going to put up the points he was in anaheim, because hes not getting prime offensive minutes or powerplay time.

Hes a much better 3C than McLeod was.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Its shocking how unproductive the three of them are. Will be interesting to see if Bowman does anything but I personally can’t really see it. Hopefully they get going after the Christmas break.

1. JSkinner has produced the most offense out of the three. knoblauch doesn’t trust him and Skinner clearly doesn’t fit on the team at the moment. I personally think they needed to give him more opportunity when Arvidsson was hurt. But its hard to really fault the coach. He’s been a liability all year. Good luck trading him in his current state (even if he was willing to move which he probably isn’t).

2. I think Arviddson is fine when hes playing but hes always hurt. I thought he would still be more productive. I think the best thing that they can do is go the LTIR Stone route if he has another week to week or worse injury before the trade deadline.

3. I can’t really believe that Henrique has struggled to the level he has. I really liked the player last year. That being said, he’s still a plus player despite his offensive struggles. At least hes not a liability on the ice. I think hes had some good chances lately. I think he gets going a bit more after the Christmas break.

The team offense and forwards have been a problem this year. It really starts with RNH and the three above. They need to get going.

I'm worried Nuge Is over the hill a little. His production is awful considering he's been riding shotgun with McDavid.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

Honestly, would it be that bad of an option to give Rodrigue a try? 0.912, 0.916, and 0.923 the past 3 seasons in the AHL on a team that isn't exactly stellar defensively, better numbers than the player this fanbase seemingly can't let go of in Wallstedt (yes I'm aware Wallstedt is younger and expected to do worse). Probably not gonna get a Dustin Wolf there but it's not as if we have anything to lose.

Lets give him a couple of Anaheim's ...coming up shortly....and see what we have. A 3 game shot probably will give a strong indicator.

 

[VeteranPresence]

Lets give him a couple of Anaheim's ...coming up shortly....and see what we have. A 3 game shot probably will give a strong indicator.

It's been baffling not to hear a single word about Rodrigue coming up during this extremely soft stretch in our schedule. Why not see what you have here? Knowing how reactive Bowman and JJ have been as opposed to proactively addressing things, they will wait until Skinner and Pickard are both injured before giving him a look.

Making matters worse is the fact Rodrigue is an RFA at season's end. How do know where he fits in the org if you don't, you know, play him in the NHL?

 

[Soundwave]

It's been baffling not to hear a single word about Rodrigue coming up during this extremely soft stretch in our schedule. Why not see what you have here? Knowing how reactive Bowman and JJ have been as opposed to proactively addressing things, they will wait until Skinner and Pickard are both injured before giving him a look.

Making matters worse is the fact Rodrigue is an RFA at season's end. How do know where he fits in the org if you don't, you know, play him in the NHL?

The Oilers management are going to probably f*** this up just like every other goalie related decision that comes across their table.

When it comes to goaltending they're like the real life version of that Seinfeld episode where Jerry tells George he should just do the literal opposite of every decision he makes.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Kris Kreider is a healthy scratch for the Rangers. 30 games in, 11G and 1 assists

I know we don't really need anymore forwards but there's one I'd have some interest in.

 

[North]

Miller is a nut job. They know it but let him poison the locker room

This. They knew he was a problem before they traded for him and did it anyways.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I don't think the team is down on Henrique nearly as much as some fans are.

He's checking every box you want out of your #3C right now outside a handful more points. Heavy D zone starts, 54% FO, #1 PKer, outscoring opposition at 5v5, outscoring elite comp 7-1, etc.

He's also tied for third on the team in high danger chances at 5v5, so likely a bit more offense will come.

And with the way Janmark is carrying the offense on the third line, I don't think offense on that line is any kind of pressing need either. Both Janmark and Brown have borderline elite 5v5 production from the bottom six right now.

People dont know what 3m gets you now days it seems.

Hes not going to put up the points he was in anaheim, because hes not getting prime offensive minutes or powerplay time.

Hes a much better 3C than McLeod was.

He's being used in easier quality of competition than McLeod was last season, shown in the charts below. The offensive production isn't even the main issue with Henrique at this point. Our on ice defensive metrics are in the toilet with him on the ice, 2nd last among full time forwards in expected goals against per 60 and high danger chances against per 60 in fact, ahead of only Jeff Skinner. Also if anything, he's been getting favourable puck luck, leading all forwards at 102.7 and again a team leading 0.938 on ice save percentage, this isn't a guy getting unlucky with production/goals against. As for outscoring elite comps at 7-1, you've been flaming Broberg, Holloway, and McLeod a lot for their puck luck this season and meh possession numbers, but Adam Henrique's elite comps possesion numbers vs goal numbers discrepancy is even more extreme, boasting a colossally bad 38% DFF% and 40.1% CF% against elites. (The "very lucky" Broberg, Holloway, and McLeod are at 41.4%/45%, 41.7%/48.4%, and 45.6%/49.2%, respectively vs elites and do so on a weaker team with far worse defensive structure). You can't have it both ways where Broberg/Holloway/McLeod are actually bad and being carried by puck luck while Adam Henrique is great and held down by bad circumstances when the other 3 put up better possession numbers and are in worse situations than Henrique due to their poor teammates and systems.

 

[McHelpus]

Krieder is a healthy scratch today, he must be getting traded?

 

[TheNumber4]

Kris Kreider is a healthy scratch for the Rangers. 30 games in, 11G and 1 assists

It’s interesting. But Hyman does his job and better.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I don't think the team is down on Henrique nearly as much as some fans are.

He's checking every box you want out of your #3C right now outside a handful more points. Heavy D zone starts, 54% FO, #1 PKer, outscoring opposition at 5v5, outscoring elite comp 7-1, etc.

He's also tied for third on the team in high danger chances at 5v5, so likely a bit more offense will come.

And with the way Janmark is carrying the offense on the third line, I don't think offense on that line is any kind of pressing need either. Both Janmark and Brown have borderline elite 5v5 production from the bottom six right now.

Henrique is getting badly outchanced and outplayed when he’s on the ice, in fact he’s getting incredibly favourable puck luck and on ice sv% right now. It’s gotten worse with him and Skinner together. His defensive metrics have been in the tank all season, and it’s not just an analytics thing- watch the game and you see how he can’t get to his spots in the Dzone, and how often his line gets hemmed in compared to our other lines. Simply put, he’s not a cup calibre 3C. I wasn’t a fan of the signing , I thought he was over the hill based on his minutes at C last year, and he’s doing even worse this year. At some point the on ice metrics will normalize and he will get scored much more often.

We saw the same thing with Nurse-Ceci, who were getting badly outchanced but we were good enough to cruise through regular seasons with them. Then they got eaten alive by Colorado, Vegas, and last playoffs until we split them up. It’s better to address this problem now then realize it too late in the playoffs and waste another year of Leon and Connor’s primes on vets we have unnecessary loyalty towards.

 

[CycloneSweep]

He's being used in easier quality of competition than McLeod was last season, shown in the charts below. The offensive production isn't even the main issue with Henrique at this point. Our on ice defensive metrics are in the toilet with him on the ice, 2nd last among full time forwards in expected goals against per 60 and high danger chances against per 60 in fact, ahead of only Jeff Skinner. Also if anything, he's been getting favourable puck luck, leading all forwards at 102.7 and again a team leading 0.938 on ice save percentage, this isn't a guy getting unlucky with production/goals against. As for outscoring elite comps at 7-1, you've been flaming Broberg, Holloway, and McLeod a lot for their puck luck this season and meh possession numbers, but Adam Henrique's elite comps possesion numbers vs goal numbers discrepancy is even more extreme, boasting a colossally bad 38% DFF% and 40.1% CF% against elites. (The "very lucky" Broberg, Holloway, and McLeod are at 41.4%/45%, 41.7%/48.4%, and 45.6%/49.2%, respectively vs elites and do so on a weaker team with far worse defensive structure). You can't have it both ways where Broberg/Holloway/McLeod are actually bad and being carried by puck luck while Adam Henrique is great and held down by bad circumstances when the other 3 put up better possession numbers and are in worse situations than Henrique due to their poor teammates and systems.
View attachment 950322
View attachment 950323

You do remember that McLeod was used a bunch as a winger for Draisaitl last year right? which changes those numbers a ton.
They both saw 30% of their ice time against Elites, and last year McLeod broke even and Henrique is ahead 7-1.
Lets actually look more at the numbers. McLeod started in the ozone 40!!% of the time against elites where Henrique only 23.3% of the time. So he is actually seeing harder dzone time.
Henrique has spent 43% of his ice time with Jeff Skinner 5v5. Against all comp his numbers defensively with Skinner TANK. Like massive drops

They are a terrible combo together. Henriques advanced defensive metrics are quite good away from Skinner.
McLeod never had anyone as awful in their ownzone as a winger as Skinner.

 

[McDNicks17]

He's being used in easier quality of competition than McLeod was last season, shown in the charts below. The offensive production isn't even the main issue with Henrique at this point. Our on ice defensive metrics are in the toilet with him on the ice, 2nd last among full time forwards in expected goals against per 60 and high danger chances against per 60 in fact, ahead of only Jeff Skinner. Also if anything, he's been getting favourable puck luck, leading all forwards at 102.7 and again a team leading 0.938 on ice save percentage, this isn't a guy getting unlucky with production/goals against. As for outscoring elite comps at 7-1, you've been flaming Broberg, Holloway, and McLeod a lot for their puck luck this season and meh possession numbers, but Adam Henrique's elite comps possesion numbers vs goal numbers discrepancy is even more extreme, boasting a colossally bad 38% DFF% and 40.1% CF% against elites. (The "very lucky" Broberg, Holloway, and McLeod are at 41.4%/45%, 41.7%/48.4%, and 45.6%/49.2%, respectively vs elites and do so on a weaker team with far worse defensive structure). You can't have it both ways where Broberg/Holloway/McLeod are actually bad and being carried by puck luck while Adam Henrique is great and held down by bad circumstances when the other 3 put up better possession numbers and are in worse situations than Henrique due to their poor teammates and systems.
View attachment 950322
View attachment 950323

Henrique is getting badly outchanced and outplayed when he’s on the ice, in fact he’s getting incredibly favourable puck luck and on ice sv% right now. It’s gotten worse with him and Skinner together. His defensive metrics have been in the tank all season, and it’s not just an analytics thing- watch the game and you see how he can’t get to his spots in the Dzone, and how often his line gets hemmed in compared to our other lines. Simply put, he’s not a cup calibre 3C. I wasn’t a fan of the signing , I thought he was over the hill based on his minutes at C last year, and he’s doing even worse this year. At some point the on ice metrics will normalize and he will get scored much more often.

We saw the same thing with Nurse-Ceci, who were getting badly outchanced but we were good enough to cruise through regular seasons with them. Then they got eaten alive by Colorado, Vegas, and last playoffs until we split them up. It’s better to address this problem now then realize it too late in the playoffs and waste another year of Leon and Connor’s primes on vets we have unnecessary loyalty towards.

Janmark-Henrique-Brown have a 58.7% xGF together.

Context matters. Getting slaughtered with Derek Ryan and Josh Brown for 10 minutes isn't any indicator on the rest of his season.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Henrique is getting badly outchanced and outplayed when he’s on the ice, in fact he’s getting incredibly favourable puck luck and on ice sv% right now. It’s gotten worse with him and Skinner together. His defensive metrics have been in the tank all season, and it’s not just an analytics thing- watch the game and you see how he can’t get to his spots in the Dzone, and how often his line gets hemmed in compared to our other lines. Simply put, he’s not a cup calibre 3C. I wasn’t a fan of the signing , I thought he was over the hill based on his minutes at C last year, and he’s doing even worse this year. At some point the on ice metrics will normalize and he will get scored much more often.

We saw the same thing with Nurse-Ceci, who were getting badly outchanced but we were good enough to cruise through regular seasons with them. Then they got eaten alive by Colorado, Vegas, and last playoffs until we split them up. It’s better to address this problem now then realize it too late in the playoffs and waste another year of Leon and Connor’s primes on vets we have unnecessary loyalty towards.

All his metrics are in the positive away from Skinner outside of a slightly below 50% corsi. His xGA numbers jump a 1.5 goals/60 with Skinner.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Great post, 100% agree that the third line has been very good, Henrique could use a few more points but he’s been doing heavy lifting in his spot and been a valuable defensive / PK center

They need to get just a bit more consistency for Arvidsson (promising signs last game) and figure out what to do with J Skinner

Its a given that players like Rico or RNH are appreciated in the room if not always by the fanbase that want more glitz and goals and not always the smart plays. Both are immense talents that can score and both are here with salary restraint with respect to their contributions. You don't generally lose games because of players like these.

The only drawback in Henrique being here is that we couldn't have got him younger. But the team is managing to deploy all minutes responsibly and this working in favor of older players and giving them less shifts where they can do more.

Henrique also gives us the constant luxury of playing Nuge on first line.

Could you imagine if the org had somehow pried Henrique when McD and Drai were developing? Would have made for a faster move to contention. He's a great player to learn from.

 

[TheNumber4]

People dont know what 3m gets you now days it seems.

Hes not going to put up the points he was in anaheim, because hes not getting prime offensive minutes or powerplay time.

Hes a much better 3C than McLeod was.

I worried about hit foot speed in relation to his 200 ft game as a Center. But with how well Brown and Janny are playing, driving play, and skating hard. Henriques net front presence and smarts is a huge plus. He knows how to get open in that hard area for chances. Something Clouder didn’t do enough of.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It’s interesting. But Hyman does his job and better.

Kreider's the kind of one shot scorer I wish the Oilers had. This team is loaded with overpassers. I'd like to have a guy who just buries his head and shoots.

 

[Cloned]

My guess is Miller for Zibanejad. It’s gonna happen.

 

[Soundwave]

Janmark-Henrique-Brown have a 58.7% xGF together.

Context matters. Getting slaughtered with Derek Ryan and Josh Brown for 10 minutes isn't any indicator on the rest of his season.

So why is Knob f***ing all this up with weird lineup decisions?

Keep that line together.

BLANK McDavid Hyman

Should be left open for Arvidsson/Skinner/Kapanen etc. to slide into and give their numbers a boost. I would try Podkolzin there also.

The fact of the matter is we need to get better optimization of this forward group, Knob is making poor lineup decisions in that respect.

Arvidsson instantly has a 2 point night in place of RNH because he got to play with McDavid, why was that not tried before? And it probably wouldn't have been tried if not for RNH being out of the lineup. Our coaching staff needs to be better with our forward combinations. They're not doing the team any favors here.