Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

[Behind Enemy Lines]

So you know I am not challenging you on this. Just an observation that these three are very different options. Personally I like Karlsson as an option especially if the cap goes up to say $95M and Bouch gets less on a shorter deal. His weaker regular season might encourage him to do so. Certainly it would bring down an arbitration ruling.

I have no idea what Karlsson would cost at 50%. He already has one retention so Pittsburgh would have to eat the full amount. Theoretically it is possible that you could get a third team to do the full retention with both teams paying for a portion:

Team #3 eats 50% They get XXX from the Oilers and YYY from Edmonton.

The problem here is that the cost to have a third team eat $8.25M would be prohibitive so I think you are back to Pittsburgh eating 50%.

I hypothesized early this year C-Bus as a third-party in a Karlsson deal. They're a natural with the $19 million cap space exemption through the Gaudreau tragedy. Fully expect them to be a third-party broker for someone this year.

An interesting aspect of Karlsson's contract is his actual salary dollars reduces next year to $9 million and then $7.5 million in final year. So if I understand the retention piece (San Jose $1.5 million subtracted) C-Bus hard cost next year would be $3.75 million and $3.0 million for the year after. As likely a budget team within a projected high growth, inflationary cap world beginning they would also gain cap space expenditure difference Karlsson's $11.5 average cap hit.

Karlsson controls his circumstances with no-trade protection. The question is if Dubas considers moving Karlsson as a cap dump scenario to free money as part of their challenged organizational retool (or gulp rebuild) and opportunity to sweep away a big, expensive early mistake in his new job.

Squint and there's a slight ray of light with this scenario.

 

[belair]

He signed his extension in October 2021, and he was traded in February 2023. But his name was popping up in random spots shortly after he extended. That's my recollection anyways.

Got the years mixed up.

But yes, I agree. For a few years there was a bit of uncertainty as to what Nashville's trajectory was. They also traded for McDonagh and Lauzon that summer and his icetime dropped. The team struggled out of the gate and he seemed like the type of player who'd shake loose.

 

[TheNumber4]

So you know I am not challenging you on this. Just an observation that these three are very different options. Personally I like Karlsson as an option especially if the cap goes up to say $95M and Bouch gets less on a shorter deal. His weaker regular season might encourage him to do so. Certainly it would bring down an arbitration ruling.

I have no idea what Karlsson would cost at 50%. He already has one retention so Pittsburgh would have to eat the full amount. Theoretically it is possible that you could get a third team to do the full retention with both teams paying for a portion:

Team #3 eats 50% They get XXX from the Oilers and YYY from Edmonton.

The problem here is that the cost to have a third team eat $8.25M would be prohibitive so I think you are back to Pittsburgh eating 50%.

Ahh it had slipped my mind that 1.5M has already been retained from the Sharks. So essentially we are cutting 10M to 5M. If it’s just Pittsburgh retention involved, $5M is not that bad for the 4RHD slot, more than we usually pay but not outside the realm of what other teams will be paying moving forward as the cap increases. I do think an additional retention on top of that would be asset cost prohibitive. The cost to get EK65 at that already would be pricey.

I know 32 thoughts most recently said Dubas still prefers Younger players, and picks and all forwards and defenceman are up for sale. It would be an all-in type move to get this deal done. Probably something in the neighborhood of 1st+Akey++ at the very least.

 

[Fourier]

Ahh it had slipped my mind that 1.5M has already been retained from the Sharks. So essentially we are cutting 10M to 5M. If it’s just Pittsburgh retention involved, $5M is not that bad for the 4RHD slot, more than we usually pay but not outside the realm of what other teams will be paying moving forward as the cap increases. I do think an additional retention on top of that would be asset cost prohibitive. The cost to get EK65 at that already would be pricey.

I know 32 thoughts most recently said Dubas still prefers Younger players, and picks and all forwards and defenceman are up for sale. It would be an all-in type move to get this deal done. Probably something in the neighborhood of 1st+Akey++ at the very least.

You can only have one more retention. It could be from Pittsburgh (By far most likely) or theoretically from a third team (far far less likely). The latter could happen if Pittsburgh wanted to shed Karlsson but not eat any money. In that scenario I agree that the cost would be substantial.

 

[Stoneman89]

roman yosi ?

Never heard of him. Does he play in the KHL?

 

[Connor McConnor]

Oof that's terrible.

Byram is going to cost 60% the amount of Bouchard. In no way is Bouchard worth anywhere close to 10+M a season.. 19m to Bouchard and Nurse? That's how you anchor yourself for the next 5 years.

 

[TheNumber4]

Schneider is a pipe dream. Rangers aren't moving him and if for some reason they did it would be for an elite young NHL player back.

I actually agree with you about Karlsson's fit but think it is low likelihood. I would see Karlsson slotting in Nuge's left flank PP giving an elite right shot finishing and distributor in that role. It would open up for Bouchard more time and space at top of the umbrella which has been a primary opposition pk tactic causing him have more shots blocked or missed net shots. As well Karlsson would give a secondary high speed puck transportation PP option also enabling McDavid as primary to gain more open neutral ice for his carry.

But that's secondary to adding a high end zone exit defender to support Oilers second wave forward attack led by Draisaitl line 2 with quick, efficient distribution passes or puck transportation away from the Oilers net. He would blunt hard, aggressive forecheck strategy against the Oil with his high IQ processor and puck moving ability to get the puck moving the other way quickly to elite Oiler forward groups.

Knoblauch's team system play is very good with the team's mature commitment to defending good. They could still utilize the Nurse Kulak for key situational play as being done to limit soft gaps in their personnel being exposed. In tight playoff games trying to find the next goal, I think Karlsson adds a unique weapon that would overshadow the defensive side of his game. He's also been a pretty consistent quality playoff performer.

However I think salary, even at full retention is a challenge; Doogie Houser GM likely a nightmare to deal with; and the Oilers may want to add a bigger body two-way d-man to further fortify their goal suppression when playoff series hard ice hockey begins. Have to be able to defend home plate ice against big, aggressive forechecking teams.

I would agree on Schneider. We don’t have the horse they would want to move him. Plus we’re not a team looking to develop someone for future depth. We need a finished product in the 4RHD slot.

On Karlsson we agree on the fit for many of the same reasons. I hadn’t considered the PP change up (I never do cause the 5 man unit seems like it set in concrete), but it’s a good point too that with a talent like EK65 it’s worth considering changes and the fit makes sense there too. The breakout and 5v5 o zone play is where and why I want ek65 though, we agree on that point.

On his cost, I also agree the likelihood is low. When I first had my EK65 dream this season I was hoping for a more drastic Penguins drop off and more desperation from them in wanting to change things up. Maybe and hopefully that’s still coming. But it seems so far, they are still in the hunt. I would say that the 3 cap dumps Dubas got rid of to get him in the first place is in our favor though. I think Dubas did well in the original acquisition so maybe the cost wouldn’t be as high from that front. Karlsson into a hefty picks/prospect package is one consideration, 3 cap dumps turned Karlsson into a hefty picks/prospect package might be a different consideration though. If he ever shakes looose though, I hope the oilers seriously consider him. Even as an all-in type move. I do think he can be that final finishing touch to put us over the top.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Byram is going to cost 60% the amount of Bouchard. In no way is Bouchard worth anywhere close to 10+M a season.. 19m to Bouchard and Nurse? That's how you anchor yourself for the next 5 years.

He's not, the rumours are he's looking for $8M+ because he sees himself as a top-pairing defenseman and he's no where near as good at hockey as Bouchard.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Edit: quoted the wrong person. I meant to quote Behind Enemy Lines (post # 1802).


Thanks for posting this. I knew Ekholm's name was out there before the Oilers acquired him, but I always remembered that his name was out there for a while. I thought I was taking crazy pills.

I've always believed that he had quietly asked for a trade out of Nashville.

Haha, nope you're right. Ekholm had trade speculation over several seasons. I loved the player, felt he would be a great fit for the Oil so kept my eyes on the rumour mill about him. Situationally, the Preds were top heavy in spending on left shot d and kind of stalling out as an organization.

Franchise altering trade for the Oil. Now need to get the second top 4 d upgrade to finish the work

 

[Fourier]

I hypothesized early this year C-Bus as a third-party in a Karlsson deal. They're a natural with the $19 million cap space exemption through the Gaudreau tragedy. Fully expect them to be a third-party broker for someone this year.

An interesting aspect of Karlsson's contract is his actual salary dollars reduces next year to $9 million and then $7.5 million in final year. So if I understand the retention piece (San Jose $1.5 million subtracted) C-Bus hard cost next year would be $3.75 million and $3.0 million for the year after. As likely a budget team within a projected high growth, inflationary cap world beginning they would also gain cap space expenditure difference Karlsson's $11.5 average cap hit.

Karlsson controls his circumstances with no-trade protection. The question is if Dubas considers moving Karlsson as a cap dump scenario to free money as part of their challenged organizational retool (or gulp rebuild) and opportunity to sweep away a big, expensive early mistake in his new job.

Squint and there's a slight ray of light with this scenario.

My original number $8.5M was actually ignoring the current retention so thanks for bringing it up. That said the $1.5M retention is just the cap the more significant number is 13%. So in fact, a third party would be on the hook for $7.17m in total real money ($3.91M in year 1 and $3.26M in year 2).

I am going to contradict my previous posts and say that specifically for CBJ this might be something they would do to get to the floor at a reasonable cost. They would be buying $5M on the cap at a discount.

Just for fun. Would they do it for a 2027 2nd and 2025 3rd from the Oilers and a 2026 2nd from Pittsburgh?

 

[McTonyBrar]

Anyone else catch Seravalli on oilersnation today? He had a great story about how Edmonton had a deal in place for Chychrun and it wasn't until that day that they ended up getting Ekholm instead.

He also squashed the narrative that Stauffer has been pushing that no one thought Ekholm would be available. He mentioned that he was on his trade board and had articles out in January of that year.

Yeah I remember that. We were pretty much trying to get one of Gavrikov and Chychrun and thought Ekholm wouldn't be available. In the last hour, he became fully available and we jumped at him

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Yeah I remember that. We were pretty much trying to get one of Gavrikov and Chychrun and thought Ekholm wouldn't be available. In the last hour, he became fully available and we jumped at him

I wonder if it was the Preds moving on their price or just accepting the offer, we'll never know, but the Oilers are SO much better for it.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I would agree on Schneider. We don’t have the horse they would want to move him. Plus we’re not a team looking to develop someone for future depth. We need a finished product in the 4RHD slot.

On Karlsson we agree on the fit for many of the same reasons. I hadn’t considered the PP change up (I never do cause the 5 man unit seems like it set in concrete), but it’s a good point too that with a talent like EK65 it’s worth considering changes and the fit makes sense there too. The breakout and 5v5 o zone play is where and why I want ek65 though, we agree on that point.

On his cost, I also agree the likelihood is low. When I first had my EK65 dream this season I was hoping for a more drastic Penguins drop off and more desperation from them in wanting to change things up. Maybe and hopefully that’s still coming. But it seems so far, they are still in the hunt. I would say that the 3 cap dumps Dubas got rid of to get him in the first place is in our favor though. I think Dubas did well in the original acquisition so maybe the cost wouldn’t be as high from that front. Karlsson into a hefty picks/prospect package is one consideration, 3 cap dumps turned Karlsson into a hefty picks/prospect package might be a different consideration though. If he ever shakes looose though, I hope the oilers seriously consider him. Even as an all-in type move. I do think he can be that final finishing touch to put us over the top.

We've chatted before about Karlsson and have much in agreement. Especially with the Coffey influence in how the d-corp plays and thinks/approaches their role.

I think as excellent as the Oilers PP is Karlsson would add an incredible dimension with the Nugent Hopkins puck poise and passing ability but also the right-shot finishing option from the left side. But Karlsson's puck poise and lethal distributing skills would help I believe to mitigate against hard, aggressive playoff forechecking deployed by big rivals like Vegas, Panthers, and even a revitalized Kings team.

Comes down to Karlsson's power to control his destiny. And Dubas view on Karlsson's fit and value to a team that's exited their winning window. Crosby maybe too who's signed a cheap lifer extension to play meaningful hockey games in Pittsburg. What would the acquisition cost look like with the required retention involved - that the $11.5 million cap hit questions we can't answer from our vantage points.

 

[TheNumber4]

I wonder if anything can be read into our Cap Accrual + Kane LTIR strategy. Could it point to the Oilers wanting to go big game hunting?

As we often complained about, we know the loss of Holloway was used to enact the Cap accrual strategy. Ideally $4M at the top end but likely to settle in at around $3M. That’s more than standard money to play around with at the TDL, usually we are operating cap in and cap out, and assuming someone is on the outs to go along with our TDL acquisitions.

Bowman has also used LTIR strategies in Chicago too. And it’s possible they had Kane penciled in for that, despite the public face of the Kane situation showing they “don’t know” what will happen with him. Which of course they would have to say, cause otherwise the Bettman police come knocking.

So that’s $3Mish + $4Mish… a lot spending money for a team with a pretty much completed Forward Core. A cheap tandem that by all indications they trust. And only one glaring hole in the 4RHD spot.

And with that I say, EK65 or bust :p

 

[ChaoticOrange]

He's not, the rumours are he's looking for $8M+ because he sees himself as a top-pairing defenseman and he's no where near as good at hockey as Bouchard.

And his brain is one bad check away from scrambled eggs.

Dude has a career high of 29 points. To be quite frank, he can't carry Bouchard's jock, and he's a lefty besides. People wanting to trade Bouchard because they don't want to pay him really have absolutely no idea how hard a top pairing RD is to come by.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

And his brain is one bad check away from scrambled eggs.

Dude has a career high of 29 points. To be quite frank, he can't carry Bouchard's jock, and he's a lefty besides. People wanting to trade Bouchard because they don't want to pay him really have absolutely no idea how hard a top pairing RD is to come by.

Yeah there's that too. I think he can play, but picking him up the deadline and flipping in at the draft after he gets a boost on a playoff run to a team that really wants him would be absolutely perfect.

I don't care "how he plays" after he's moved, it's best for this team, though I think he could positively contribute to a run as well.

(If that all makes sense)

 

[Fourier]

And his brain is one bad check away from scrambled eggs.

Dude has a career high of 29 points. To be quite frank, he can't carry Bouchard's jock, and he's a lefty besides. People wanting to trade Bouchard because they don't want to pay him really have absolutely no idea how hard a top pairing RD is to come by.

Moreover, I think people are underestimating how much even a good #3 will be getting.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

My original number $8.5M was actually ignoring the current retention so thanks for bringing it up. That said the $1.5M retention is just the cap the more significant number is 13%. So in fact, a third party would be on the hook for $7.17m in total real money ($3.91M in year 1 and $3.26M in year 2).

I am going to contradict my previous posts and say that specifically for CBJ this might be something they would do to get to the floor at a reasonable cost. They would be buying $5M on the cap at a discount.

Just for fun. Would they do it for a 2027 2nd and 2025 3rd from the Oilers and a 2026 2nd from Pittsburgh?

Appreciate the clarification on the retention percentage and money.

This is kind of a perfect storm opportunity with C-Bus' unique cap situation this year. They will have lots of suitors this year for cap retention before anticipated big annual bumps to come.

Have to say personally I'd throw the 25 and 26 second round picks at this player for full retention. But I'd easily move the anticipated late 26 first round pick (and +, if necessary) for 3 years of Erik Karlsson at max retention.

 

[TheNumber4]

We've chatted before about Karlsson and have much in agreement. Especially with the Coffey influence in how the d-corp plays and thinks/approaches their role.

I think as excellent as the Oilers PP is Karlsson would add an incredible dimension with the Nugent Hopkins puck poise and passing ability but also the right-shot finishing option from the left side. But Karlsson's puck poise and lethal distributing skills would help I believe to mitigate against hard, aggressive playoff forechecking deployed by big rivals like Vegas, Panthers, and even a revitalized Kings team.

Comes down to Karlsson's power to control his destiny. And Dubas view on Karlsson's fit and value to a team that's exited their winning window. Crosby maybe too who's signed a cheap lifer extension to play meaningful hockey games in Pittsburg. What would the acquisition cost look like with the required retention involved - that the $11.5 million cap hit questions we can't answer from our vantage points.

The NTC that Karlsson holds and his previously mentioned request in Sanjose that he wants to go somewhere he can compete for a Cup also lends credence to the possibility I would say. Obviously Dubas picked him up for Pitts hoping he can squeeze out some last remaining competitiveness out of Sid and Geno. Conversations must have been had at the time of acquisition that EK65 at the time was on board with. But now that that may not happen in Pitts, I wonder if that conversation changes and if an element of “doing Karlsson a solid” can play into this trade possibility. Dubas of course benefits too with the appropriate picks/prospects package. A free-ing of his cap space may also be enticing for GM that’s always been pretty active.

 

[TheNumber4]

He's not, the rumours are he's looking for $8M+ because he sees himself as a top-pairing defenseman and he's no where near as good at hockey as Bouchard.

Oof. If he wants that, id move him if I was Buffalo. Byram is good, he’s nowhere near $8M good.

 

[TheNumber4]

I wonder if it was the Preds moving on their price or just accepting the offer, we'll never know, but the Oilers are SO much better for it.

Maybe it was Reid Schaeffer being thrown in at the final hour. And with how well Preds did with a similar large forward in Jeannot it got them all excited at the prospect of another 5 picks coming their way lol.

 

[Cloned]

The funny thing is that as bad as Trotz has been I don’t think he’s had a deal as bad as the Ekholm one for the Preds.

 

[K1984]

The funny thing is that as bad as Trotz has been I don’t think he’s had a deal as bad as the Ekholm one for the Preds.

I thought for sure that deal would be followed by a Predators tear down. That's the only following course of action that would make sense.

Then they go out and acquire a few guys, over perform expectations, then buried themselves. They might have even got through the Nucks last year if nothing changed other than just having Ekholm.

 

[Oilhawks]

I thought for sure that deal would be followed by a Predators tear down. That's the only following course of action that would make sense.

Then they go out and acquire a few guys, over perform expectations, then buried themselves. They might have even got through the Nucks last year if nothing changed other than just having Ekholm.

At least Ekholm still got to participate in putting those frauds out to pasture

 

[McDoused]

Here's the clip talking about ekholm and the chychrun trade that almost happened.



Also some dude asked seravelli about Matheson...