Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Road to the Draft June 28th and 29th

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Well this sucks, nearly the entire bump will be eaten up by Bouchards bonus carryover.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Well this sucks, nearly the entire bump will be eaten up by Bouchards bonus carryover.

Trade Bouchard before he signs his contract. His value is never going to be higher than it will be at the draft. This is an offensive defenseman that specializes on the power play with limited defensive ability and not a lot of compete.

You might not get a better power play quarterback but Kenny is getting f***ed if he can't find a better overall defenseman.

Someone will give up the assets the Oilers need to parlay into a Cup winner by making further trades. A team trading for Bouchard will also take on one of our less desirable contracts along with Bouchard.

Oilers can add sweeteners to build a Cup winner. Move Bourgault and Lavoie along with the assets picked up in the Bouchard deal and get it f***ing done.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I don't trust the tandem we have now to get the job done, and why should I? On what basis have they proved anything to have any trust?

Skinner and Campbell have played 4 playoff rounds between them, and lost 3/4 of them, neither of them winning a round past round 1, while posting sub.900 save percentage in 3/4 series' they played in.

On top of that, we had the worst starter (arguably) in the regular season (Campbell) and then had the worst starter in the playoffs through 2 rounds (Skinner). Talk about being a boat anchor to the team.

I mean I guess I should feel cool about that because Skinner has a cool mustache and because Bobrovsky woke up and has had a monster year that means we're due to have something similar happen to us too (or does it actually work like that? I don't think it does).

That's the point, there's like 5 goalies in the NHL that you can actually trust and we're not going to be able to acquire any of them.

 

[Soundwave]

Your arguments always go this way. This is what happened so this what will always happen. But you ignore it when it doesn't suit your narrative, like when you suggest trading everything for a goaltender like Carey Price, who had a pretty large track record of posting below average results. You're even ignoring Connor Hallebuyk's most recent playoff stats, but you're certain Skinner's tell the future of what we can expect from him.

And honestly it's all for none. You do realize we're not trading for a goaltender, right? It's literally the least likely position that's addressed in the offseason. 0%

Expecting Skinner or Campbell to go on a giant playoff run isn't impossible, but it's closer to expecting a miracle than anything based in any kind of reality.

We do this with so many players here ... expect the moon out of them because the management has invested a critical position in them, expect them to play above their heads beyond any production they've ever proven, and then act dumb founded when it doesn't happen (see also: Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Mikko Koskinen, Ethan Bear, even Darnell Nurse, etc. etc. etc.).

For every guy who becomes a breakout star on any team, the reality is there's 4-5 other guys that can't make it happen.

Since Skinner has a poor track record in the playoffs thus far, really all we have is blind hope that he'll magically figure things out, even though 2 bad playoff rounds in a row is already a pretty bad looking red flag.

If a guy is a big time player going forward, given two full rounds to show his stuff, maybe he doesn't dominate his first time out, but you'd expect to see like a game or two where he just takes over and shows that he does indeed have "it", didn't see any of that from Skinner.

 

[Broberg Speed]

That's the point, there's like 5 goalies in the NHL that you can actually trust and we're not going to be able to acquire any of them.

There are zero goalies in the NHL that you can rely on for this club with how the Oilers play defense.

 

[Oilhawks]

Well this sucks, nearly the entire bump will be eaten up by Bouchards bonus carryover.

I understand it's technically not "up to" Bettman, but this fraud needs to go. Flat cap has weakened the product on the ice, let's drag it on even longer. Lol

 

[belair]

Expecting Skinner or Campbell to go on a giant playoff run isn't impossible, but it's closer to expecting a miracle than anything based in any kind of reality.

We do this with so many players here ... expect the moon out of them because the management has invested a critical position in them, expect them to play above their heads beyond any production they've ever proven, and then act dumb founded when it doesn't happen (see also: Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Mikko Koskinen, Ethan Bear, even Darnell Nurse, etc. etc. etc.).

For every guy who becomes a breakout star on any team, the reality is there's 4-5 other guys that can't make it happen.

Since Skinner has a poor track record in the playoffs thus far, really all we have is blind hope that he'll magically figure things out, even though 2 bad playoff rounds in a row is already a pretty bad looking red flag.

If a guy is a big time player going forward, given two full rounds to show his stuff, maybe he doesn't dominate his first time out, but you'd expect to see like a game or two where he just takes over and shows that he does indeed have "it", didn't see any of that from Skinner.

They don't expect the moon out of them and I'm not entirely certain why you think that they would.

They're a pretty good bet to be a reliable tandem for a team that likely scores them 300 goals again next season. With an improved defense core and what's likely a healthier top end, it's safe to bet that both of these goaltenders can manage a workload of 40 or so games while maintaining a respectable GAA. Both have shown they're good for about 0.915 when things are going alright.

Vegas is the favorite in the Cup Final this season with a goalie that was their fourth string when the playoffs began. It's completely discounting everything that you're saying about goaltending in the playoffs.

 

[belair]

Trade Bouchard before he signs his contract. His value is never going to be higher than it will be at the draft. This is an offensive defenseman that specializes on the power play with limited defensive ability and not a lot of compete.

You might not get a better power play quarterback but Kenny is getting f***ed if he can't find a better overall defenseman.

Someone will give up the assets the Oilers need to parlay into a Cup winner by making further trades. A team trading for Bouchard will also take on one of our less desirable contracts along with Bouchard.

Oilers can add sweeteners to build a Cup winner. Move Bourgault and Lavoie along with the assets picked up in the Bouchard deal and get it f***ing done.

Make a list of realistic teams that would be interested in Bouchard in a way that they'd even give us a moderately attractive return knowing they'd have to pay him immediately.

My guess is that the list isn't very big.

 

[Soundwave]

They don't expect the moon out of them and I'm not entirely certain why you think that they would.

They're a pretty good bet to be a reliable tandem for a team that likely scores them 300 goals again next season. With an improved defense core and what's likely a healthier top end, it's safe to bet that both of these goaltenders can manage a workload of 40 or so games while maintaining a respectable GAA. Both have shown they're good for about 0.915 when things are going alright.

Vegas is the favorite in the Cup Final this season with a goalie that was their fourth string when the playoffs began. It's completely discounting everything that you're saying about goaltending in the playoffs.

I frankly don't care what they do in the regular season (aside from getting enough points to make the playoffs, hopefully without exhausting the group). I don't even care if they win the President's Trophy. Zero interest in that.

I don't want a goalie that is just good when things are easy/"going alright". We need a goalie that can hold the team afloat when things are not going good (see Dwayne Roloson, game 3 of round 2 of the 2006 playoffs).

Winning 4 playoff rounds is basically all it's about now, and to do that you either need a way better defence than what the Oilers have or you need a way better starter in the playoffs than what the Oilers have.

There's no charity in the playoffs, no one is going to let us win a round because we have McDavid and Draisaitl and they score fancy goals (well maybe other than Calgary). For other teams, really all that does is force them to play even harder and tighter against us. Team are so shit scared of what McDavid/Draisaitl did, especially in that Flames series, that every team we play against basically has full buy in for their coach, everyone is willing to buy in to whatever the opposing coach is asking for. I bet every video session in the playoffs for us, every guy is paying full attention. We will never get an opponent's second best effort in the playoffs.

We need to either get a goalie who can elevate and be a big time performer in the playoffs, or there needs to be a radical change in the defence and I don't think that is really that possible with this roster as is and this coach as is.

 

[snipes]

Hopefully Yamamoto gets traded

 

[Soundwave]

Hopefully Yamamoto gets traded

That's pretty much a given just looking at the cap, there's no way to keep him.

A 1st round pick and 5 years of investment ... to get basically 1 big (sorta flukey) goal from him, lol.

 

[Zerotonine]

Gibson has told ducks he wants to move on. Could possibly trade him in a near 1 for 1 with Campbell wity some tweaking. Campbell has 2 less years as well. Most likely cheaper then helleybuch esp after Gibson hasn't been the gobson of old last few seasons. But look at what's in front of him and it's been no secret he hasn't been happy in Anaheim for a while

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

What's the cap supposed to be at when HRR is $6 billion? $93.75M?

 

[94 Oil Drops]

No trades will be made until July 1. Or at least that's my guess.

 

[Heavy Dee]

 

[Broberg Speed]

Make a list of realistic teams that would be interested in Bouchard in a way that they'd even give us a moderately attractive return knowing they'd have to pay him immediately.

My guess is that the list isn't very big.

Make a list of the teams you think wouldn't be interested in Bouchard enough to give a moderately attractive return.

If the list is big figure it out.

 

[Mr Kot]

Well this sucks, nearly the entire bump will be eaten up by Bouchards bonus carryover.

Fuuuck that is terrible news. We need to start moving cap now. Was hoping for a little breather.

 

[Soundwave]

Leave it to Oilers management to sign the one goalie contract from last year that is now considered "unmovable".

Petterson, Matt Murray can all likely be in play for Hellebuyck or Gibson because they are shorter term. So probably a team like LA or Toronto can improve a lot in net while we stand pat. Good job Holland.

Hopefully future GM Staois isn't dumb as bricks, last Oiler GM who was a former d-man at least got us to a Cup Final by getting Roloson.

 

[McDrai]

Well this sucks, nearly the entire bump will be eaten up by Bouchards bonus carryover.

That is simply ridiculous. If cap isn’t moving much teams should get 1 amnesty buyout a piece

 

[Soundwave]

With no cap increase coming (not a shocker), Woodcroft might have to look up the word "defence" in the dictionary.

 

[Broberg Speed]

That is simply ridiculous. If cap isn’t moving much teams should get 1 amnesty buyout a piece

Make it three per team and watch everyone scramble.

It would make for the most interesting season of hockey ever.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I frankly don't care what they do in the regular season (aside from getting enough points to make the playoffs, hopefully without exhausting the group). I don't even care if they win the President's Trophy. Zero interest in that.

I don't want a goalie that is just good when things are easy/"going alright". We need a goalie that can hold the team afloat when things are not going good (see Dwayne Roloson, game 3 of round 2 of the 2006 playoffs).

Winning 4 playoff rounds is basically all it's about now, and to do that you either need a way better defence than what the Oilers have or you need a way better starter in the playoffs than what the Oilers have.

There's no charity in the playoffs, no one is going to let us win a round because we have McDavid and Draisaitl and they score fancy goals (well maybe other than Calgary). For other teams, really all that does is force them to play even harder and tighter against us. Team are so shit scared of what McDavid/Draisaitl did, especially in that Flames series, that every team we play against basically has full buy in for their coach, everyone is willing to buy in to whatever the opposing coach is asking for. I bet every video session in the playoffs for us, every guy is paying full attention. We will never get an opponent's second best effort in the playoffs.

We need to either get a goalie who can elevate and be a big time performer in the playoffs, or there needs to be a radical change in the defence and I don't think that is really that possible with this roster as is and this coach as is.

And which goalie exists on this fantasyland of yours that consistently raises their game in the playoffs and also realistic to acquire?

Available goalies last offseason (playoff sv%):
Campbell (2021: 0.934, 2022: 0.897)
Husso (2022: 0.890)
Kuemper (2022: 0.902)
Vanacek (2022: 0.863, 2023: 0.825)
Samsonov (2022: 0.912, 2023: 0.898)

more context:

Oettinger
2022: 0.954
2023: 0.895

Hellebuyck
2021: 0.931
2023: 0.886

Fleury
2021: 0.918
2022: 0.906
2023: 0.811

Binnington
2021: 0.914
2022: 0.851
2021: 0.899

 

[Soundwave]

And which goalie exists on this fantasyland of yours that consistently raises their game in the playoffs and also realistic to acquire?

Available goalies last offseason (playoff sv%):
Campbell (2021: 0.934, 2022: 0.897)
Husso (2022: 0.890)
Kuemper (2022: 0.902)
Vanacek (2022: 0.863, 2023: 0.825)
Samsonov (2022: 0.912, 2023: 0.898)

more context:

Oettinger
2022: 0.954
2023: 0.895

Hellebuyck
2021: 0.931
2023: 0.886

Fleury
2021: 0.918
2022: 0.906
2023: 0.811

Binnington
2021: 0.914
2022: 0.851
2021: 0.899

Hellebuyck, but of course Holland signed the one goalie contract last year which is now apparently "unmovable" ... so yippie. With help like that it's a wonder Connor and Leon can't get to a Finals thus far. lol at trying to make Campbell look better by also including his playoff stats from the year prior.

8 years here and the best goalie they can find is Cam Talbot. Tough to work with that.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Well this sucks, nearly the entire bump will be eaten up by Bouchards bonus carryover.

God damn it, it wasn't long ago Bettman seemed open to negotiating a raise with the PA, I guess it will just be a big pay bump in 2024-25.

One little trick we can try to employ is going after 35+ players and signing them to the league minimum cap-hit and then tacking on bonuses, we can carry the cap overage penalties from bonuses to the following season.

Though the options for over 35 players isn't the greatest, obviously Bergeron and/or Krejci would be great, but they are likely BOS or retire. Parise seems to want to stay in the US and I don't see why the Staals would leave FLA. The remaining 35+ UFAs should all be making ~$1M or less so we can still shave a couple hundred $100K off the cap by using/abusing bonuses, but I don't foresee any homerun pick-ups on the cheap from that group.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Just to better visualize what we can do with an $83.5M I did up a roster with the bare minimum changes. As a matter of necessity we need to drop one of our guys making ~$3M, I chose Yamo.

Signings/Re-signings:

- Evan Bouchard $3.5M x 2 yrs
- Ryan McLeod $1.45M x 2 yrs
- Klim Kostin $1.3M x 1 yr
- Mattias Janmark $1.1M x 1 yr
- Derek Ryan $775K x 1 yr (with bonuses $950K)
- Connor Brown $775K x 1 yr (with bonuses $2.75M)

Yamo traded to the Ducks for future considerations, Bjugstad priced himself out, and Connor Brown brought in, cause of the length of his injury I believe we can offer him a 1 yr deal with bonuses.

Line-Up

Kane - Mcdavid - Hyman
RNH - Drai - Foegele
Holloway - McLeod - Brown
Janmark - Ryan - Kostin

Nurse - Ceci
Ekholm - Bouchard
Kulak - Desharnais
Broberg

Skinner
Campbell

Cap-hit= $82.6M
​

So it's only a 21 man roster cause we need to accrue cap space for deadline day. This is where I'm setting my expectations at and I'll be happy if Holland can exceed them, but it seems likely that we can expect the status quo and the deadline will be when we can mold the team in more meaningful ways.