Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Oilers Biggest Roster Need Is?

[CanadasTeam99]

What i want to know is what happened to Jake Walman in Detroit? From a hockey personnel/skill level the trade makes no sense at all to me.
Yzerman is a very good talent evaluator--why did he do this? Was it a personal thing that happened within the organization?

He apparently has a personality that doesn't mesh well and I think he is addicted to that atrocious looking Fortnite game and video games in general lol

 

[Fourier]

This is the exact short sightedness in the Oilers head office that allowed them to be submarined by 2 offer sheets.

Right now the cap is trying to catch up to revenues and teams will have a lot more money to spend over the next few years, so inflation is going to happen regardless. The 5 years of flat cap are now history and St.L realized it before the Oilers even dreamt it might happen despite Broberg asking to be traded.

As well, there is a new breed of owner and manager entering the league, ones that do not GAF about the OBC and enjoy disrupting the status quo.

High end RFA's will be safe with their teams as the cost of acquisition is too high but the mid range and about to break out RFA's cost of 2nd and 3rd round picks is peanuts, and these players will have incentive not to sign cheap two year deals before their deals expire but wait to see what might be out there, especially if their team is horribly mismanaged in the way the Oilers historically have been.

Agents will look to maximize contracts and once July 1 hits they can work with other teams to craft deals hard to match in the way Ferris did with St Louis.

If the cap rises significantly that does not make OS's more likely, exactly the opposite happens. It makes the cost of a successful offer sheet a lot greater. If the Oilers suddenly had $5M in additional space they would probably have matched both contracts.

OS's are more of a factor when the cap is growing slowly since teams at the top are often pressed to keep their roster. But the point is that even when such circumstances have happened in the past OS have not been a factor for RFA's without arbitration rights because they are highly inflationary. If teams start trying to defend against such moves it impacts their whole cap structure. It also resets arbitration numbers for RFA's with arbitration rights. Holloway and Broberg are now valid comparable for RFA's with similar stats. If a few more teams made similar OS's you soon have players coming off their ELCS being able to ask for arbitration awards comparable to these clearly inflated deals. Do you want to see Beau Akey asking for $4.6M after 80 games in the NHL with 2 goals and 10 points? While this may not be a big issue over the short period where the cap rests, it will become a big deal once teams spending catches up.

GM's need to save money somewhere. They can't do it with stars no matter what stage they are at. They can't do it with arbitration eligible RFA's (see JP and Yamamoto). The only class of players you can squeeze are RFA's without arbitration rights and old vets looking to get some job somewhere. Now is it possible that we will see a few copycats. Sure. But there is absolutely a reason why there have been only 4 successful OS in 20 years and two of those were this year.

 

[VeteranPresence]

Usually I don't get on management for not making early season moves (hard to bring in quality players until closer to the deadline) but Fabbro was a perfect opportunity sitting right there for them and all they had to do was throw any pick Nashville's way to get him. They could have made the cap work with some maneuvers, really disappointing that they weren't in on him but Oilers management is notoriously reactive instead of proactive so....par for the course really.

Really these geniuses had not one but three cracks at a right-handed top four defenseman for next to nothing the last six months:

-Jonathan Kovacevic for a 2026 4th in June. 10 points and a +14 playing 19:55 a game.
-Timothy Liljegren for a 3rd and 6th.
-The Fabbro situation.

Our pro scouting continues to be horrendous, which you desperately need to be good at to win anything in this league.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

I wonder what TO will do with Marner. Guy is having a great year. They hate him b/c of the playoffs. UFA.

He is only upping his demands now. Maybe they think they can leverage his love for his hometown.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Really these geniuses had not one but three cracks at a right-handed top four defenseman for next to nothing the last six months:

-Jonathan Kovacevic for a 2026 4th in June. 10 points and a +14 playing 19:55 a game.
-Timothy Liljegren for a 3rd and 6th.
-The Fabbro situation.

Our pro scouting continues to be horrendous, which you desperately need to be good at to win anything in this league.

I have always said, our org (no matter who is there), is never pro-active. Even if things are going ok, they have tunnel vision. They would not even think of upgrading on a player out of the blue if a better one was available for a similar cap hit, etc.

They are very bad at identifying weaknesses/needs and then rectifying them in a timely matter.

They could get a call from Grier telling them Blackwood is available for a 5th and they would say "Nahhhh, Skinjob is trending up baby. He's going to hit 900 one of these days".

Or some good contributing forward being available and EDM would just ride it out with what they have hoping the scoring goes up more.

Edmonton loves riding the "Hope" train

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I have always said, our org (no matter who is there), is never pro-active. Even if things are going ok, they have tunnel vision. They would not even think of upgrading on a player out of the blue if a better one was available for a similar cap hit, etc.

They are very bad at identifying weaknesses/needs and then rectifying them in a timely matter.

They could get a call from Grier telling them Blackwood is available for a 5th and they would say "Nahhhh, Skinjob is trending up baby. He's going to hit 900 one of these days".

I agree they seem to always be a step behind.

 

[McDNicks17]

Really these geniuses had not one but three cracks at a right-handed top four defenseman for next to nothing the last six months:

-Jonathan Kovacevic for a 2026 4th in June. 10 points and a +14 playing 19:55 a game.
-Timothy Liljegren for a 3rd and 6th.
-The Fabbro situation.

Our pro scouting continues to be horrendous, which you desperately need to be good at to win anything in this league.

Trotz waived Fabbro because they weren't going to retain on him, so the cap wasn't going to work there.

Liljegren just sucks.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Really these geniuses had not one but three cracks at a right-handed top four defenseman for next to nothing the last six months:

-Jonathan Kovacevic for a 2026 4th in June. 10 points and a +14 playing 19:55 a game.
-Timothy Liljegren for a 3rd and 6th.
-The Fabbro situation.

Our pro scouting continues to be horrendous, which you desperately need to be good at to win anything in this league.

My guess is Kovecevic because of his size and his cap hit.

Frankly it's a decent bet to make, imo,

 

[soothsayer]

And yet the OS for the Oiler pair did not trigger any fast moves on other team's RFA's. OS are highly inflationary and every GM know this.

It may not have triggered anything that same year, while the dust was still settling. But there have been reports that owners themselves have been questioning why offer sheets aren't being used, given that St. Louis just got a young top 4/top pairing D and a young top 6 power forward for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. The offer sheets have been slam dunks for St. Louis. I don't know why teams wouldn't consider them more seriously in the future.

 

[K1984]

I have always said, our org (no matter who is there), is never pro-active. Even if things are going ok, they have tunnel vision. They would not even think of upgrading on a player out of the blue if a better one was available for a similar cap hit, etc.

They are very bad at identifying weaknesses/needs and then rectifying them in a timely matter.

They could get a call from Grier telling them Blackwood is available for a 5th and they would say "Nahhhh, Skinjob is trending up baby. He's going to hit 900 one of these days".

Or some good contributing forward being available and EDM would just ride it out with what they have hoping the scoring goes up more.

Edmonton loves riding the "Hope" train

The frustrating thing is they aren't allergic to making smart/deft moves, they just seem to randomly pick their spots and it's never in a material or needed part of the roster. The Ceci/Emberson deal was smart, Podkolzin was smart, squeezing more out of the Blues during the offer sheet window was smart, the O'Reilly trade and Savoie/McLeod trades may have been smart (remains to be seen), but at minimum they showed some foresight and creativity.

On the other hand, for 2RD they basically signed Stecher, PTO'd Dermott, and washed their hands. Skinner inconsistent and not necessarily reliable? Pickard will just do. Just quickly shuffled these two critical areas off the agenda and moved on for whatever reason.

 

[Fourier]

It may not have triggered anything that same year, while the dust was still settling. But there have been reports that owners themselves have been questioning why offer sheets aren't being used, given that St. Louis just got a young top 4/top pairing D and a young top 6 power forward for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. The offer sheets have been slam dunks for St. Louis. I don't know why teams wouldn't consider them more seriously in the future.

I'll direct you to my post #3802 above. The reason is because OS's have significant potential to inflate RFA salaries and to make RFA negotiations much more complex making it more difficult to plan for salary allocations long term.

I will point you to what happened with JP and Yamamoto. Both got raises beyond what most of us would have been comfortable with simply because they were arbitration eligible and the only defense against this is to not qualify the player. Despite what many seem to believe teams can't just walk away from a bad arbitration number unless it is more than $4.7M and that number will soon be over $5M. Amongst the many consequences of OS's the potential to further inflate arbitration awards is perhaps the most dangerous. Arbitrators can only look at a few concrete factors with production and usage being perhaps the most significant. Holloway had 9 points last year. Podkolzin has 8 so far. Would you like to see him ask for and be awarded close to $3M next year by an arbitrator? Statistically and in terms of pretty much any factor an arbitrator might consider he would be viewed as being at least Holloway's equal. Similarly with Emberson. Would you be comfortable with him using Broberg's $4.6M as a comparable? Right now these two players can be dismissed as anomalies. But it would not take many more OS's to change this.

 

[FlameChampion]

I wonder what TO will do with Marner. Guy is having a great year. They hate him b/c of the playoffs. UFA.

He is only upping his demands now. Maybe they think they can leverage his love for his hometown.

Either resigns or walks away as free agent. I can’t see them trading him at this point.

With Tavares coming off the books, I think they pay him.

 

[soothsayer]

I'll direct you to my post #3802 above. The reason is because OS's have significant potential to inflate RFA salaries and to make RFA negotiations much more complex making it more difficult to plan for salary allocations long term.

I will point you to what happened with JP and Yamamoto. Both got raises beyond what most of us would have been comfortable with simply because they were arbitration eligible and the only defense against this is to not qualify the player. Despite what many seem to believe teams can't just walk away from a bad arbitration number unless it is more than $4.7M and that number will soon be over $5M. Amongst the many consequences of OS's the potential to further inflate arbitration awards is perhaps the most dangerous. Arbitrators can only look at a few concrete factors with production and usage being perhaps the most significant. Holloway had 9 points last year. Podkolzin has 8 so far. Would you like to see him ask for and be awarded close to $3M next year by an arbitrator? Statistically and in terms of pretty much any factor an arbitrator might consider he would be viewed as being at least Holloway's equal. Similarly with Emberson. Would you be comfortable with him using Broberg's $4.6M as a comparable? Right now these two players can be dismissed as anomalies. But it would not take many more OS's to change this.

Do you know how arbitrators draw their comparisons? If I'm a team, I'm arguing that Holloway's offer sheet, for example, isn't an appropriate comparison in an arbitration, because it's not necessarily a representation of his "market value" given that there were strategic purposes in the amount that the Blues offered by way of the offer sheet.

I don't know exactly how player-team arbitrations go. I think it would be interesting to sit in on one. But generally arbitrations are open to argument about precisely these types of issues.

 

[McDNicks17]

It may not have triggered anything that same year, while the dust was still settling. But there have been reports that owners themselves have been questioning why offer sheets aren't being used, given that St. Louis just got a young top 4/top pairing D and a young top 6 power forward for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. The offer sheets have been slam dunks for St. Louis. I don't know why teams wouldn't consider them more seriously in the future.

It's because they give RFAs all the control. "Sign this contract or sit out" quickly turns into "give me what I want or I'm signing an offer sheet".

There's a reason why GMs have basically swore off using them.

 

[soothsayer]

It's because they give RFAs all the control. "Sign this contract or sit out" quickly turns into "give me what I want or I'm signing an offer sheet".

There's a reason why GMs have basically swore off using them.

The offer sheet still has to be made. There's probably another aspect to this equation, and it's in the team's confidence in the assessments of their pro scouts. St. Louis took a risk on the Broberg and Holloway offer sheets, but their pro scouts may have been totally convinced that Broberg was worth the risk. They were probably right but time will tell. Anyways, it's not like every RFA is going to get offer sheeted by virtue that they are an RFA.

 

[McDNicks17]

The offer sheet still has to be made. There's probably another aspect to this equation, and it's in the team's confidence in the assessments of their pro scouts. St. Louis took a risk on the Broberg and Holloway offer sheets, but their pro scouts may have been totally convinced that Broberg was worth the risk. They were probably right but time will tell. Anyways, it's not like every RFA is going to get offer sheeted by virtue that they are an RFA.

Every RFA doesn't have to sign one, but if it gets more widespread like you were wondering, just having the realistic threat of one would significantly change negotiations.

 

[soothsayer]

Every RFA doesn't have to sign one, but if it gets more widespread like you were wondering, just having the realistic threat of one would significantly change negotiations.

I think it would have an effect on negotiations, but I'm not sure how significant it would be. I think for the offer sheet to play in to negotiations, the player and team have to know whether the situation admits to the strategy of the offer sheet in the first place. For a bunch of players, the offer sheet may not really be a factor, so it may not play into negotiations as much. For a player like Broberg, however, it would play a major role, given all the variables like organizational importance, upward trend in play, positional importance, predicted salary threshold for matching, draft compensation for the offer sheet, etc.

 

[Heavy Dee]

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Pro scouting with another bullseye.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

damn what a backfire that signing was.

 

[Fourier]

Do you know how arbitrators draw their comparisons? If I'm a team, I'm arguing that Holloway's offer sheet, for example, isn't an appropriate comparison in an arbitration, because it's not necessarily a representation of his "market value" given that there were strategic purposes in the amount that the Blues offered by way of the offer sheet.

I don't know exactly how player-team arbitrations go. I think it would be interesting to sit in on one. But generally arbitrations are open to argument about precisely these types of issues.

NHL arbitration data is very limited. Here are the permissible factors:

• The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons
• Injuries, illnesses, and the number of games played
• The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL
• The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure
• The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal"
• The performance and salary of any player believed to be comparable to the player in the dispute

The two biggest factors as far as I can tell and I am pretty sure this is the case are a players stats and their usage. As it is you could argue that these two contracts being anomalies. However, if OS become at all common that argument goes out the window. In part because of the OS's themselves but also becuase to defend against OS's team will be upping their offers to RFA's.

 

[Fourier]

I think it would have an effect on negotiations, but I'm not sure how significant it would be. I think for the offer sheet to play in to negotiations, the player and team have to know whether the situation admits to the strategy of the offer sheet in the first place. For a bunch of players, the offer sheet may not really be a factor, so it may not play into negotiations as much. For a player like Broberg, however, it would play a major role, given all the variables like organizational importance, upward trend in play, positional importance, predicted salary threshold for matching, draft compensation for the offer sheet, etc.

The impact goes well beyond the threat of an OS to an individual player. Frequent OS's will change the nature of the NHL salary structures shifting the money towards players very early in their career.

 

[K1984]

Get him on LTIR.

No idea anymore if the space is accruable or how it would work, but at minimum it gives us flexibility to call up some extra bodies.

 

[Soundwave]

If it doesn't work out with Arvidsson trade him for John Gibson retained, might as well put that money towards a team weakness.

Bring in Klim Kostin on the cheap.

 

[Fourier]

Get him on LTIR.

No idea anymore if the space is accruable or how it would work, but at minimum it gives us flexibility to call up some extra bodies.

He is already on IR. Putting him on LTIR right now has no impact unless the Oilers bring in a big salary.