Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie Vs. Pederson Vs. Sutter Vs. Gagner Vs. Caggiula

[tiger_80]

I tend to agree. Rnh as 3c has not only been talked about forever, but coaches have also tried it.

One of the biggest falsehoods any fan believes is that an elite player can play with a bottom sixer and boost that player and it spreads everything around. When we put lesser players with Drai and McDavid, those elites would suffer. Heck, the big relevation our team only just recently managed to accomplish was to separate McDavid and Draisaitl 5 on 5, and that's another one that coaches tried and failed to do for many years. Guys like Maroon and Bunting are underrated, because of how they can make elite players look good. We've even tried McLeod there and it didn't really work.

It would be a dream for Holloway to be that guy who allows RNH to drop to the 3rd line. Although honestly I expect the top six player to drop down will be Hyman or Brown.

RNH is best when playing with Draisaitl and MacDavid. He's an average checker, not a second coming of Bergeron. Unless it is Marc-Andre Bergeron))

 

[guymez]

RNH is best when playing with Draisaitl and MacDavid. He's an average checker, not a second coming of Bergeron. Unless it is Marc-Andre Bergeron))

Thankfully RNH hasnt taken out his own goalie in a playoff game yet.

Still think that cost this team a Cup in 06.

 

[harpoon]

RNH is best when playing with Draisaitl and MacDavid. He's an average checker, not a second coming of Bergeron. Unless it is Marc-Andre Bergeron))

Agreed. Defensive prowess greatly overstated. What’s worse, RNH cannot carry the puck to save his life. He needs to play with someone who has the hands (courage) to do the hard work.

Gotta ask btw, what’s with the parentheses at the end of all your posts suddenly?

 

[ZJuice]

Agreed. Defensive prowess greatly overstated. What’s worse, RNH cannot carry the puck to save his life. He needs to play with someone who has the hands (courage) to do the hard work.

Gotta ask btw, what’s with the parentheses at the end of all your posts suddenly?

I thought RNH with Foegle wasn't bad because of what you said. Hell even Nurse makes Nuge look better offensively because Nurse will take the initiative to get the puck deep when his forwards are being timid. Nuge is good at following/supporting the play but as you said.. He needs someone to do the hard work.

Thankfully RNH hasnt taken out his own goalie in a playoff game yet.

Still think that cost this team a Cup in 06.

I blame Don Cherry for 06

 

[tiger_80]

Agreed. Defensive prowess greatly overstated. What’s worse, RNH cannot carry the puck to save his life. He needs to play with someone who has the hands (courage) to do the hard work.

Gotta ask btw, what’s with the parentheses at the end of all your posts suddenly?

It's meant to convey a joke.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Thanks for that.

Are you able to talk about 5 on 5 play? Or is that 5 on 5.

That's everything combined... in all situations... which I think is a useful perspective as well... because obviously PK/PP/EV all are important factors in GF/GA stats so I like to look at everything combined as well.

 

[Soundwave]

Some stats from the playoffs over the past 2 seasons...

21/22 ...stats from all situations combined (PK/PP/EV):

Oilers had the 12th best expected GA/60 of 3.59 from 16 playoff teams... so defense was nothing special obviously and having Nurse injured didn't help. They actually let in 3.66 GA/60 (13th best) so goaltending was basically very average as the GA/60 was pretty much as expected.

Offensively, the Oilers had an expected GF/60 of 3.48 which was 4th best among the 16 playoff teams. Solid numbers... but the kicker here was that the Oilers scored 4.03 GF/60... 2nd best to only the Avalanche. So the Oilers not only were producing good chances but they were capitalizing on those chances as well.

Colorado had the #1 ranked GA/60 in all situations at 2.35 GA/60 and their actual GA/60 was 2.69 (3rd best among the 16 playoff teams)... so they were very stingy defensively and their goaltending was nothing special... giving up about a 3rd of a goal more than expected. Colorado was 3rd best in expected GF/60 at 3.53 but where they really shone was the actual GF/60 at 4.13... they capitalized on their chances to the tune of an extra .60 GF/60 than expected.

So basically how I'd sum that up all that was that the Oilers were clearly a very good offensive team 2 years ago but had below average defense and average goaltending... and they ran into a team (the Avs) who also had very good offense... much better defense and average to below average goaltending. Oilers lost because of overall team defense. We pretty much all knew that but the numbers tell that story as well.


Last season... 22/23... again combined stats from all situations...

Oilers... 6th best expected GA/60 (3.05)... so the additions of Ekholm and a healthy Nurse likely helped as expected GA/60 was cut down by over .5 from the previous playoffs. Actual GA/60 though was 12th best at 3.39 so goaltending let in .34 GA/60 more than expected.

Offensively... Oilers were 2nd best in expected GF/60 at 3.59 (a slight increase of .11 from the previous playoffs)... so they were still getting their chances but their actual GF/60 was 3rd at 3.55... so at best they were just capitalizing on their chances... nothing more... nothing less.

Vegas on the other hand... expected 3.18 GA/60 (a very average 10th best among the 16 playoff teams) but a very good actual 2.53 GA/60 (3rd best)... so goaltending was stellar and shaved off .65 off the expected GA/60 rate. Offensively they were 5th at an expected 3.23 GF/60 but they buried their chances at an impressive rate and had an actual GF/60 of 3.90... so their players stepped up and added an additional .67 GF/60 over expected. It's hard to lose when your team is burying chances so well and goaltending is making big saves beyond expectations. Was their team D stellar though? Not really by the looks of it and it was their offensive finish and their goaltending that were the real stars that led them to the SC.

Oilers ran into a Vegas team that were superior at burying their chances and a goalie that was brick-walling it in net.

Maybe this is well known overall but a slightly different spin is that the Oilers may not have been as shit defensively as many have thought/said... and yes goaltending let them down and Vegas simply buried their opportunities at a much higher rate than the Oilers did.



To me this is some reason for optimism as the Oilers defensive numbers markedly improved from 1 playoff to the next. The main issue was that goaltending did them no favours and they couldn't capitalize on chances like they did the year before. Players like RNH/Kane didn't have great production at 5v5 for example. As a team, they went from exceeding expected GF/60 by .55 to underperforming slightly by .04... that's quite a differential and a big reason why they couldn't get past Vegas who were far exceeding expectations offensively and in net.


Colorado had stellar offense/defense and average/below average goaltending.
Vegas had stellar offense/goaltending and average/below average defense.

SC champs can have a weakness/mediocrity in one area but they need very good strengths in the others and that changes every year... aka, there's more than one formula to win a Cup.

That's pretty much what I've said, if you want to simplify it, it's even easier.

Offence. Defence. Goaltending.

Every Cup winner basically is very good in 2/3 of these areas, minimum. There are a few teams that are so dominant they are great in 3/3 (if you face a team that good, you're basically gonna auto-lose).

The Oilers still had the worst goals against for any team in the playoffs through round 2 for both 2022 and 2023. Which is disappointing. No team can win with that. Our goaltending went backwards even from a playing hurt, 40 year old Mike Smith in the playoffs the year before, which is incredibly disappointing.

For people who want to say "well Chicago once won with Niemi!" ... well yeah McDavid and Draisaitl would win with Niemi in net too ... as long as you give them Hossa + Sharp + Byfuglien + Ladd + prime Duncan Keith + Seabrook + Campbell ... that's the part they conveniently gloss over (so incredible forward depth + two no.1 D basically, one of whom is a Norris caliber D) in their "anyone can win a Cup any which way!" fantasy.

Our D and goaltending being poor is basically what is holding us back. Even in 2022 where Kane and Hyman went supernova to support McDavid/Draisaitl, it wasn't good enough to win even one game past round 2. The D and goaltending are what's killing us ... that's pretty obvious.

 

[Anarchism]

That's pretty much what I've said, if you want to simplify it, it's even easier.

Offence. Defence. Goaltending.

Every Cup winner basically is very good in 2/3 of these areas, minimum. There are a few teams that are so dominant they are great in 3/3 (if you face a team that good, you're basically gonna auto-lose).

The Oilers still had the worst goals against for any team in the playoffs through round 2 for both 2022 and 2023. Which is disappointing. No team can win with that. Our goaltending went backwards even from a playing hurt, 40 year old Mike Smith in the playoffs the year before, which is incredibly disappointing.

For people who want to say "well Chicago once won with Niemi!" ... well yeah McDavid and Draisaitl would win with Niemi in net too ... as long as you give them Hossa + Sharp + Byfuglien + Ladd + prime Duncan Keith + Seabrook + Campbell ... that's the part they conveniently gloss over (so incredible forward depth + two no.1 D basically, one of whom is a Norris caliber D) in their "anyone can win a Cup any which way!" fantasy.

Our D and goaltending being poor is basically what is holding us back. Even in 2022 where Kane and Hyman went supernova to support McDavid/Draisaitl, it wasn't good enough to win even one game past round 2. The D and goaltending are what's killing us ... that's pretty obvious.

You have said this a 100 times or more this summer. Yes Soup is inconsistent/Fragile.
Our D spots R side 1 and 3 aren't good enough.
We have too much dependence on our PP and our top end scoring ...we need a really good third line to take the focus away from McDavid so much.

Easy to identify...what has Holland done to fix this at all.
What solutions would you make?

Why do your posts feel like your jumping up an down while you type?

 

[Anarchism]

Of the players list above in the poll I really hope none of them make the team.

 

[Fourier]

This is not how it works in reality. The reality is we've had TWO dominant 'top lines' and have been a horrific 5v5 team forever. The team struggles to keep up at even strength because two of our lines do nothing. Again, spreading the wealth may allow, like it has for other teams, to run an extra line at even strength that is an actual threat to score.

I am not sure what your definition of horrific is. The Oilers last year were 5th in 5 vs 5 GF and 10th in GF% which while not great on the GF% front is certainly not horrific. And this is not just about McDavid and Draisaitl. When those two were not on the ice the team scored 74 goals and had 60 goals against for a GF% of 55.22%. When none of McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge or Hyman were on the ice they scored 45 goals and gave up 35 last year.

The trend of better 5 vs 5 results has been ongoing for a couple of years. Moreover, the results after the addition of Ekholm were even more pronounced though the sample size is of course smaller. After that trade the Oilers had the 4th highest 5 vs 5 GF% behind only Boston, LA and Florida.

 

[94 Oil Drops]

Gagner and Lavoie both making the team and alternating as the 12th and 13th forward sounds like a plausible scenario.

 

[Fourier]

My vote was for Lavoie as much as anything because I hope he can take the next step. I like his potential.

 

[CupofOil]

@AddyTheWrath just reading through the other thread, sorry about your breakup. It sucks.
I feel your pain, I went through a grueling breakup a few months ago and it's been a real task to get over. Time will heal those wounds my friend, sports is a nice escape so hopefully the Oilers will help to provide that escape.

 

[FlameChampion]

What do people think the forward lines will look like? Who do you think the 4C's will be?

Edit: I am assuming that Lavoie will be the 12th Forward

I guess to answer my own question. I think the line up will be either:

(I dont see them putting any of the top 6 guys in the bottom 6)

Kane/RNH - McDavid - Brown
RNH/Kane - Draisaitl - Hyman

_________________________________________________________

As for bottom 6:

Foegele - McLeod - Ryan/Lavoie
Janmark - Holloway - Lavoie/Ryan

or

Holloway - McLeod - Foegele
Janmark - Ryan - Lavoie

or (when they run 11-7)

Holloway - McLeod - Foegele
Janmark - McDavid/Draisaitl - Ryan/Lavoie


I think if they are running 12F, that using Holloway as 4C makes the most sense (I think Ryan is a good RW but I dont think he cuts it as a C anymore) from a positional point of view. But I'm not sure that its really putting Holloway in a position to succeed. Guess we will see what Holloway/Lavoie and Broberg look like in camp.

 

[iCanada]

I tend to agree. Rnh as 3c has not only been talked about forever, but coaches have also tried it.

One of the biggest falsehoods any fan believes is that an elite player can play with a bottom sixer and boost that player and it spreads everything around. When we put lesser players with Drai and McDavid, those elites would suffer. Heck, the big relevation our team only just recently managed to accomplish was to separate McDavid and Draisaitl 5 on 5, and that's another one that coaches tried and failed to do for many years. Guys like Maroon and Bunting are underrated, because of how they can make elite players look good. We've even tried McLeod there and it didn't really work.

It would be a dream for Holloway to be that guy who allows RNH to drop to the 3rd line. Although honestly I expect the top six player to drop down will be Hyman or Brown.

The major problem with RNH at 3C is we've never had the winger depth to properly fill out the top 9.

Not saying we do now, but certainly we never have in the past. Leads to one of McDrai getting hamstrung and then RNH might as well be in the top six. But I think it's a different story if you can find a productive pair for McDavid and Draisaitl.

 

[Anarchism]

Edit: I am assuming that Lavoie will be the 12th Forward

I guess to answer my own question. I think the line up will be either:

(I dont see them putting any of the top 6 guys in the bottom 6)

Kane/RNH - McDavid - Brown
RNH/Kane - Draisaitl - Hyman

_________________________________________________________

As for bottom 6:

Foegele - McLeod - Ryan/Lavoie
Janmark - Holloway - Lavoie/Ryan

or

Holloway - McLeod - Foegele
Janmark - Ryan - Lavoie

or (when they run 11-7)

Holloway - McLeod - Foegele
Janmark - McDavid/Draisaitl - Ryan/Lavoie


I think if they are running 12F, that using Holloway as 4C makes the most sense (I think Ryan is a good RW but I dont think he cuts it as a C anymore) from a positional point of view. But I'm not sure that its really putting Holloway in a position to succeed. Guess we will see what Holloway/Lavoie and Broberg look like in camp.

I think a real positive for Lavoie is if he gets a 5 to 10 game cup of coffee to start the year and gets sent down to work of the down side of the puck...how he reacts going back and his battle when he gets there.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

When have we? And when has our 5v5 game ever been good as a team?

The solution will never be to try and create two superstar lines. No team has that. The solution is to create four lines you can run to keep everyone fresh that can hang. Every good team operates in this manner. What you’re saying is patently false. Every great team in the league has three real solid lines that don’t get beat up 5 on 5. We have 1, maybe 1.5.

We just went through this last week when Fourier took you to school on our 5v5 play both last season and in the playoffs. He provided actual numbers vs what you thought you saw at which point you disappeared like a fart in the wind.

Do we really have to do this again?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Good I'm going to guess

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Good I'm going to guess

It depends. How’s their body posture? Facial symmetry?

 

[RipsADrive]

Good I'm going to guess

Hard to say from the outside, but looks like Segall has been working his way up internally for quite awhile and Fanelli has some good some pretty good accolades from his time with the Lightning. Always nice to bolster the analytics department.

Are these two replacing anyone, or are they new positions?

 

[Anarchism]

We just went through this last week when Fourier took you to school on our 5v5 play both last season and in the playoffs. He provided actual numbers vs what you thought you saw at which point you disappeared like a fart in the wind.

Do we really have to do this again?

I'm not sure this team with its two superstars and top heavy wingers will become great at 5 on 5 throughout the lineup...but i do wish Holland had made a couple of moves where we would become less reliant on our PP (say less 20 goals) and had decreased our goals against by 30. Don't need a major groundshift to achieve this.

 

[Soundwave]

You have said this a 100 times or more this summer. Yes Soup is inconsistent/Fragile.
Our D spots R side 1 and 3 aren't good enough.
We have too much dependence on our PP and our top end scoring ...we need a really good third line to take the focus away from McDavid so much.

Easy to identify...what has Holland done to fix this at all.
What solutions would you make?

Why do your posts feel like your jumping up an down while you type?

The cost is probably going to be in the range of

3-4 1st round picks to get this to the level it needs to be at.

Two 1sts quite probably to fix the goaltending and get rid of Campbell if he just isn't cut out for the task of being a starting goalie on a Cup winner (which right now looks a lot more likely than not, can't be that mentally fragile as you said).

Another 1st for a Ceci upgrade who can actually play heavy minutes and defend.

Another 1st maybe for another 2RD that can defend because while Bouchard can put up points on the PP, he may need to be sheltered as the 3RD, his defensive play in the playoffs last year was atrocious.

Then I guess whatever is left ... Broberg, 2nd round picks, etc. you may have to spend for forward depth.

It's a boat load of picks that we will likely have to spend but we put ourselves in this spot through years of bad management and bad drafting (Wright being fired as the first order of business by Jackson/Coffey tells you a lot).

 

[ujju2]

Lavoie due to waiver eligibility, at least to start the season.

 

[Anarchism]

The cost is probably going to be in the range of

3-4 1st round picks to get this to the level it needs to be at.

Two 1sts quite probably to fix the goaltending and get rid of Campbell if he just isn't cut out for the task of being a starting goalie on a Cup winner (which right now looks a lot more likely than not, can't be that mentally fragile as you said).

Another 1st for a Ceci upgrade who can actually play heavy minutes and defend.

Another 1st maybe for another 2RD that can defend because while Bouchard can put up points on the PP, he may need to be sheltered as the 3RD, his defensive play in the playoffs last year was atrocious.

Then I guess whatever is left ... Broberg, 2nd round picks, etc. you may have to spend for forward depth.

It's a boat load of picks that we will likely have to spend but we put ourselves in this spot through years of bad management and bad drafting (Wright being fired as the first order of business by Jackson/Coffey tells you a lot).

Wow when you spend you spend.
I don't think i would try to fix it all.
First i would trade for a vet for 3RD.
Then pick up a player for bottom 6 FA.
Then see how Ceci and Soup work....hopefully one improves.
Would like to wait till after Xmas to see how Holloway grows and if Lavoie can jump back up from the A and how Bourgault improves. Would have a major impact on how many of those firsts you spend.
Likely have to pickup a steady goalie at the deadline or improve on Ceci. Maybe someone will have to go on LTIR.

 

[Soundwave]

Wow when you spend you spend.
I don't think i would try to fix it all.
First i would trade for a vet for 3RD.
Then pick up a player for bottom 6 FA.
Then see how Ceci and Soup work....hopefully one improves.
Would like to wait till after Xmas to see how Holloway grows and if Lavoie can jump back up from the A and how Bourgault improves. Would have a major impact on how many of those firsts you spend.
Likely have to pickup a steady goalie at the deadline or improve on Ceci. Maybe someone will have to go on LTIR.

That is the price the Oilers might want to accept as being the cost of being in the Cup winning business though. It's likely a Campbell-Skinner tandem just is not good enough, the hope would be Campbell at least improves a bit so that trading him becomes a bit easier I suppose.

Not spending, and then probably not winning anything and risking losing McDavid and Draisaitl isn't an option.

Holland probably made a massive mistake with Campbell, that's going to cost us a couple of 1sts to not only get out of, but then you have to find an actual starter in his place because there's a high probability Skinner ain't it either.

Two good defencemen who can actually defend the right side, two 1sts for that sounds about right. We just paid a 1st + a recent 1st round pick to get Ekholm alone.

Maybe the cost would be less if we had some genius GM who can make big ticket trade steals, but we don't have that either, we're probably stuck paying sticker price for all of these pieces.

It is what it is. If you want 1st round picks and stockpiling draft picks, well you've gotten that non-stop since 2007 until 2022 ... was that enough for you? Once McDavid and Draisaitl are gone you can have all the draft picks you want, just look at it that way.

We're now a phase where we don't have that much time to build a legit Cup winner, not just a maybe pretender that has its D and/or goaltending fall apart every spring. Even Holland, Mr. Patience himself is saying "no more green bananas" which underscores that time is getting tight now. We have to make a real push.