Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie Vs. Pederson Vs. Sutter Vs. Gagner Vs. Caggiula

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Why do you keep saying this? It doesn't make sense. A poster listing some of the qualities of a championship franchise doesn't necessarily equate to that poster believing there is "only one way to win a Cup." Beyond winning 16 games in the playoffs...

Change your custom title under your profile picture:
every team wins the Cup a different way

Then everyone will know.

You seem quite triggered by my post

 

[duul]

Today I learned that the way Vegas played to win the cup is the only way to win a Cup. Even though Colorado won it a different way last time. And Tampa won it a different way the time before that. But Vegas, their way is the only way. And we aren't enough like Vegas thus will never win the Cup.

Martinez-Pietrangelo
McNabb-Theodore
Hague-Whitecloud

Toews-Makar
Byram-Manson
Girard-Johnson

Hedman-Cernak
McDonagh-Shattenkirk
Sergachev-Bogosian

Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais

 

[Mr Positive]

Our 12th forward doesn't need to be a center. Ideally we get a great center, but we used Ryan for a lot of draws and he's good at them. We can make the decision based on other things and imo it will be Lavoie unless he looks way too raw. But if he's marginally worse than his competitors in camp he will still be the one.

Kane McDavid Brown
RNH Drai Hyman
Foegele McLeod Lavoie
Holloway Ryan Janmark

And Lavoie or Holloway sits out if we go 11-7. The one extra skater will be a D

 

[Tobias Kahun]

You seem quite triggered by my post

Your post probably made him physically ill.

 

[duul]

One more point I'd like to bring up is the litany of people against putting RNH back to 3C, citing he was already tried there and failed.

He was a huge improvement at that spot over McLeod. Why not put McLeod to 4C, RNH to 3C, and try to give us three scoring lines? The top two lines do not need to be stacked with our six most expensive offensive players, especially not to start a season. Spread the wealth.

Janmark-McLeod-Ryan
Holloway-Draisaitl-Hyman
Foegele-McDavid-Brown
Kane-RNH-Lavoie/Bourgault

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Did I actually seem some idiot in this thread suggest that Kostin has a better shot than near perennial 50 goal scorer Leon Draisaitl?
Boys I think we can ease up on the Taylor Hall’s house joke for a bit because we were just gifted some fresh material.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Why do you keep saying this? It doesn't make sense. A poster listing some of the qualities of a championship franchise doesn't necessarily equate to that poster believing there is "only one way to win a Cup." Beyond winning 16 games in the playoffs...

Change your custom title under your profile picture:
every team wins the Cup a different way

Then everyone will know.

You need to go take a walk. Team talk might be affecting your health.

 

[Evilsports]

I'm voting for a bit of a dark horse in Sutter. Pre-season never goes the way that I expect it to. The easy choice for me would have been Gags or Lavoie, so I went off the reservation and picked Sutter. I feel like he has a good chance of being a very unglamorous but steady hand in the bottom six.

 

[Bring Back Bucky]

I’m 52 and haven’t had gear on in four years and did have minor heart surgery this year but I think I’ve got an outside chance of being a big surprise in camp this year if I just get the call to attend.

 

[tiger_80]

Today I learned that the way Vegas played to win the cup is the only way to win a Cup. Even though Colorado won it a different way last time. And Tampa won it a different way the time before that. But Vegas, their way is the only way. And we aren't enough like Vegas thus will never win the Cup.

Happens every year. I remember when the Ducks won in 2007, there was a talk of how one needs big top 6 and an aggressive checking line. Then Detroit Red p***yes win next year)))

 

[TheNumber4]

I would trade every single one of those players to give Kostin another shot here. And yes, I know thats not how the Cap works.

 

[Paralyzer]

I would trade every single one of those players to give Kostin another shot here. And yes, I know thats not how the Cap works.

 

[belair]

One more point I'd like to bring up is the litany of people against putting RNH back to 3C, citing he was already tried there and failed.

He was a huge improvement at that spot over McLeod. Why not put McLeod to 4C, RNH to 3C, and try to give us three scoring lines? The top two lines do not need to be stacked with our six most expensive offensive players, especially not to start a season. Spread the wealth.

Janmark-McLeod-Ryan
Holloway-Draisaitl-Hyman
Foegele-McDavid-Brown
Kane-RNH-Lavoie/Bourgault

Putting bottom six players with top six players doesn't spread the wealth. It anchors your catalysts. It overworks limited support players. And it likely taxes the defense many view as less than competitive.

Your lineup lacks a dominant top line. And the result of that means the team likely struggles to score consistently at even strength. An area of the game every Stanley Cup winner thrives in.

The Oilers will succeed being a top heavy two line outscoring team as they have in recent years. When they have a third line that can frequently outmatch, the Oilers will have a very good shot at winning the Cup.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The problem is the argument seems to be he can sustain a 20% shooting percentage because he has a good shot.

Draisaitl-level shooters shoot 20%. There's a massive gap between Draisaitl's shot and a "good shot".

Likely not, but it sure is nice to have a one shot scorer down the lineup in tight games.

Kostin may have similar speed on his wrist shot, the difference is that Draisaitl's accuracy is filthy and that he can beat you with a bigger variety of shots.

 

[duul]

Putting bottom six players with top six players doesn't spread the wealth. It anchors your catalysts. It overworks limited support players. And it likely taxes the defense many view as less than competitive.

Your lineup lacks a dominant top line. And the result of that means the team likely struggles to score consistently at even strength. An area of the game every Stanley Cup winner thrives in.

The Oilers will succeed being a top heavy two line outscoring team as they have in recent years. When they have a third line that can frequently outmatch, the Oilers will have a very good shot at winning the Cup.

This is not how it works in reality. The reality is we've had TWO dominant 'top lines' and have been a horrific 5v5 team forever. The team struggles to keep up at even strength because two of our lines do nothing. Again, spreading the wealth may allow, like it has for other teams, to run an extra line at even strength that is an actual threat to score.

 

[Mr Positive]

Putting bottom six players with top six players doesn't spread the wealth. It anchors your catalysts. It overworks limited support players. And it likely taxes the defense many view as less than competitive.

Your lineup lacks a dominant top line. And the result of that means the team likely struggles to score consistently at even strength. An area of the game every Stanley Cup winner thrives in.

The Oilers will succeed being a top heavy two line outscoring team as they have in recent years. When they have a third line that can frequently outmatch, the Oilers will have a very good shot at winning the Cup.

I tend to agree. Rnh as 3c has not only been talked about forever, but coaches have also tried it.

One of the biggest falsehoods any fan believes is that an elite player can play with a bottom sixer and boost that player and it spreads everything around. When we put lesser players with Drai and McDavid, those elites would suffer. Heck, the big relevation our team only just recently managed to accomplish was to separate McDavid and Draisaitl 5 on 5, and that's another one that coaches tried and failed to do for many years. Guys like Maroon and Bunting are underrated, because of how they can make elite players look good. We've even tried McLeod there and it didn't really work.

It would be a dream for Holloway to be that guy who allows RNH to drop to the 3rd line. Although honestly I expect the top six player to drop down will be Hyman or Brown.

 

[belair]

This is not how it works in reality. The reality is we've had TWO dominant 'top lines' and have been a horrific 5v5 team forever. The team struggles to keep up at even strength because two of our lines do nothing. Again, spreading the wealth may allow, like it has for other teams, to run an extra line at even strength that is an actual threat to score.

We didn't possess dominant top lines last season. We struggled to outscore in the top six. But our bottom six actually thrived for the first time in a dog's age. Getting two scoring lines running at an elite rate and keeping that productive bottom six will lead to success.

Putting Warren Foegele next to Connor McDavid and Dylan Holloway next to Leon Draisaitl doesn't spread wealth. It overworks the lesser players and saddles your offensive catalysts with weaker support. It increases the likelihood they get scored on and decreases the likelihood they produce at an elite rate.

 

[belair]

I tend to agree. Rnh as 3c has not only been talked about forever, but coaches have also tried it.

One of the biggest falsehoods any fan believes is that an elite player can play with a bottom sixer and boost that player and it spreads everything around. When we put lesser players with Drai and McDavid, those elites would suffer. Heck, the big relevation our team only just recently managed to accomplish was to separate McDavid and Draisaitl 5 on 5, and that's another one that coaches tried and failed to do for many years. Guys like Maroon and Bunting are underrated, because of how they can make elite players look good. We've even tried McLeod there and it didn't really work.

It would be a dream for Holloway to be that guy who allows RNH to drop to the 3rd line. Although honestly I expect the top six player to drop down will be Hyman or Brown.

I see Brown as a guy who's likely to see a lot of top six looks next season. But as the year moves on, he's a player with a track record of being a very good third line player. If the Oilers find an upgrade closer to the deadline, they have the pieces to build a competitive third line.

 

[Mr Positive]

I see Brown as a guy who's likely to see a lot of top six looks next season. But as the year moves on, he's a player with a track record of being a very good third line player. If the Oilers find an upgrade closer to the deadline, they have the pieces to build a competitive third line.

I only know Brown vaguely but Hyman has definitely a high utility player who can equally contribute in the top six or 3rd line. I don't see RNH the same way. Rnh is a high end puck distributor whose main skills don't translate to bottom six teammates. He would elevate bottom sixers but not by as much as they would diminish him

 

[duul]

We didn't possess dominant top lines last season. We struggled to outscore in the top six. But our bottom six actually thrived for the first time in a dog's age. Getting two scoring lines running at an elite rate and keeping that productive bottom six will lead to success.

Putting Warren Foegele next to Connor McDavid and Dylan Holloway next to Leon Draisaitl doesn't spread wealth. It overworks the lesser players and saddles your offensive catalysts with weaker support. It increases the likelihood the get scored on and decreases the likelihood they produce at an elite rate.

When have we? And when has our 5v5 game ever been good as a team?

The solution will never be to try and create two superstar lines. No team has that. The solution is to create four lines you can run to keep everyone fresh that can hang. Every good team operates in this manner. What you’re saying is patently false. Every great team in the league has three real solid lines that don’t get beat up 5 on 5. We have 1, maybe 1.5.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Your post probably made him physically ill.

improved profile picture

 

[GOilers88]

Martinez-Pietrangelo
McNabb-Theodore
Hague-Whitecloud

Toews-Makar
Byram-Manson
Girard-Johnson

Hedman-Cernak
McDonagh-Shattenkirk
Sergachev-Bogosian

Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais

Since we do agree defense should be the biggest priority, who do you target for the deadline? The team can clearly get to the playoffs even when they struggle, so giving a bunch of rope to Broberg and Holloway makes the most sense. Let them learn for a couple months, unless of course they're both absolutely and completely incapable. So it makes sense to see a big move at the TDL, at least I think so.

Who do you throw the best assets at to partner with Nurse?

 

[duul]

Since we do agree defense should be the biggest priority, who do you target for the deadline? The team can clearly get to the playoffs even when they struggle, so giving a bunch of rope to Broberg and Holloway makes the most sense. Let them learn for a couple months, unless of course they're both absolutely and completely incapable. So it makes sense to see a big move at the TDL, at least I think so.

Who do you throw the best assets at to partner with Nurse?

No matter how you slice it, the team should be giving huge amounts of leash to all of Broberg, Holloway, and Lavoie or Bourgault — whoever makes the roster. If they play well, then we can comfortably allocate assets elsewhere (defence). If they all falter, we can look to try and trade them and add a bit more to acquire, well, things get a bit fuzzy there but yes, a defenceman must be the priority.

I’m not sure who is available, but with Ceci + a roster player making 2+ million (Foegele, McLeod), you can fit basically any player in at 50% retention.

If Holloway and one of the other guys sticks, we can really pull something off. As for who, in my eyes it would be whatever impact defenceman is available. The best one that can play all situations. Ekholm level or higher. He was available this off-season in Karlsson, let’s hope another one becomes so at the deadline.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Some stats from the playoffs over the past 2 seasons...

21/22 ...stats from all situations combined (PK/PP/EV):

Oilers had the 12th best expected GA/60 of 3.59 from 16 playoff teams... so defense was nothing special obviously and having Nurse injured didn't help. They actually let in 3.66 GA/60 (13th best) so goaltending was basically very average as the GA/60 was pretty much as expected.

Offensively, the Oilers had an expected GF/60 of 3.48 which was 4th best among the 16 playoff teams. Solid numbers... but the kicker here was that the Oilers scored 4.03 GF/60... 2nd best to only the Avalanche. So the Oilers not only were producing good chances but they were capitalizing on those chances as well.

Colorado had the #1 ranked GA/60 in all situations at 2.35 GA/60 and their actual GA/60 was 2.69 (3rd best among the 16 playoff teams)... so they were very stingy defensively and their goaltending was nothing special... giving up about a 3rd of a goal more than expected. Colorado was 3rd best in expected GF/60 at 3.53 but where they really shone was the actual GF/60 at 4.13... they capitalized on their chances to the tune of an extra .60 GF/60 than expected.

So basically how I'd sum that up all that was that the Oilers were clearly a very good offensive team 2 years ago but had below average defense and average goaltending... and they ran into a team (the Avs) who also had very good offense... much better defense and average to below average goaltending. Oilers lost because of overall team defense. We pretty much all knew that but the numbers tell that story as well.


Last season... 22/23... again combined stats from all situations...

Oilers... 6th best expected GA/60 (3.05)... so the additions of Ekholm and a healthy Nurse likely helped as expected GA/60 was cut down by over .5 from the previous playoffs. Actual GA/60 though was 12th best at 3.39 so goaltending let in .34 GA/60 more than expected.

Offensively... Oilers were 2nd best in expected GF/60 at 3.59 (a slight increase of .11 from the previous playoffs)... so they were still getting their chances but their actual GF/60 was 3rd at 3.55... so at best they were just capitalizing on their chances... nothing more... nothing less.

Vegas on the other hand... expected 3.18 GA/60 (a very average 10th best among the 16 playoff teams) but a very good actual 2.53 GA/60 (3rd best)... so goaltending was stellar and shaved off .65 off the expected GA/60 rate. Offensively they were 5th at an expected 3.23 GF/60 but they buried their chances at an impressive rate and had an actual GF/60 of 3.90... so their players stepped up and added an additional .67 GF/60 over expected. It's hard to lose when your team is burying chances so well and goaltending is making big saves beyond expectations. Was their team D stellar though? Not really by the looks of it and it was their offensive finish and their goaltending that were the real stars that led them to the SC.

Oilers ran into a Vegas team that were superior at burying their chances and a goalie that was brick-walling it in net.

Maybe this is well known overall but a slightly different spin is that the Oilers may not have been as shit defensively as many have thought/said... and yes goaltending let them down and Vegas simply buried their opportunities at a much higher rate than the Oilers did.



To me this is some reason for optimism as the Oilers defensive numbers markedly improved from 1 playoff to the next. The main issue was that goaltending did them no favours and they couldn't capitalize on chances like they did the year before. Players like RNH/Kane didn't have great production at 5v5 for example. As a team, they went from exceeding expected GF/60 by .55 to underperforming slightly by .04... that's quite a differential and a big reason why they couldn't get past Vegas who were far exceeding expectations offensively and in net.


Colorado had stellar offense/defense and average/below average goaltending.
Vegas had stellar offense/goaltending and average/below average defense.

SC champs can have a weakness/mediocrity in one area but they need very good strengths in the others and that changes every year... aka, there's more than one formula to win a Cup.

 

[duul]

Some stats from the playoffs over the past 2 seasons...

21/22 ...stats from all situations combined (PK/PP/EV):

Oilers had the 12th best expected GA/60 of 3.59 from 16 playoff teams... so defense was nothing special obviously and having Nurse injured didn't help. They actually let in 3.66 GA/60 (13th best) so goaltending was basically very average as the GA/60 was pretty much as expected.

Offensively, the Oilers had an expected GF/60 of 3.48 which was 4th best among the 16 playoff teams. Solid numbers... but the kicker here was that the Oilers scored 4.03 GF/60... 2nd best to only the Avalanche. So the Oilers not only were producing good chances but they were capitalizing on those chances as well.

Colorado had the #1 ranked GA/60 in all situations at 2.35 GA/60 and their actual GA/60 was 2.69 (3rd best among the 16 playoff teams)... so they were very stingy defensively and their goaltending was nothing special... giving up about a 3rd of a goal more than expected. Colorado was 3rd best in expected GF/60 at 3.53 but where they really shone was the actual GF/60 at 4.13... they capitalized on their chances to the tune of an extra .60 GF/60 than expected.

So basically how I'd sum that up all that was that the Oilers were clearly a very good offensive team 2 years ago but had below average defense and average goaltending... and they ran into a team (the Avs) who also had very good offense... much better defense and average to below average goaltending. Oilers lost because of overall team defense. We pretty much all knew that but the numbers tell that story as well.


Last season... 22/23... again combined stats from all situations...

Oilers... 6th best expected GA/60 (3.05)... so the additions of Ekholm and a healthy Nurse likely helped as expected GA/60 was cut down by over .5 from the previous playoffs. Actual GA/60 though was 12th best at 3.39 so goaltending let in .34 GA/60 more than expected.

Offensively... Oilers were 2nd best in expected GF/60 at 3.59 (a slight increase of .11 from the previous playoffs)... so they were still getting their chances but their actual GF/60 was 3rd at 3.55... so at best they were just capitalizing on their chances... nothing more... nothing less.

Vegas on the other hand... expected 3.18 GA/60 (a very average 10th best among the 16 playoff teams) but a very good actual 2.53 GA/60 (3rd best)... so goaltending was stellar and shaved off .65 off the expected GA/60 rate. Offensively they were 5th at an expected 3.23 GF/60 but they buried their chances at an impressive rate and had an actual GF/60 of 3.90... so their players stepped up and added an additional .67 GF/60 over expected. It's hard to lose when your team is burying chances so well and goaltending is making big saves beyond expectations. Was their team D stellar though? Not really by the looks of it and it was their offensive finish and their goaltending that were the real stars that led them to the SC.

Oilers ran into a Vegas team that were superior at burying their chances and a goalie that was brick-walling it in net.

Maybe this is well known overall but a slightly different spin is that the Oilers may not have been as shit defensively as many have thought/said... and yes goaltending let them down and Vegas simply buried their opportunities at a much higher rate than the Oilers did.



To me this is some reason for optimism as the Oilers defensive numbers markedly improved from 1 playoff to the next. The main issue was that goaltending did them no favours and they couldn't capitalize on chances like they did the year before. Players like RNH/Kane didn't have great production at 5v5 for example. As a team, they went from exceeding expected GF/60 by .55 to underperforming slightly by .04... that's quite a differential and a big reason why they couldn't get past Vegas who were far exceeding expectations offensively and in net.


Colorado had stellar offense/defense and average/below average goaltending.
Vegas had stellar offense/goaltending and average/below average defense.

SC champs can have a weakness/mediocrity in one area but they need very good strengths in the others and that changes every year... aka, there's more than one formula to win a Cup.

Thanks for that.

Are you able to talk about 5 on 5 play? Or is that 5 on 5.