I don’t disagree but I think it’s hard to make a fair assessment without all the facts, we don’t know how willing either side was to negotiate extensions in season. It takes two to tango and at that point both players performances didn’t give them much to negotiate on and it wasn’t going to get worse waiting until the offseason but it could get better.
Let me ask you a couple questions. If you were the Oilers GM, knowing that their is a ton of uncertainty surrounding your cap situation and not even knowing at that point what the upper limit is going to be, between January and April, would you of signed Broberg to a 1.8M cap hit and Holloway to a 1.2M?
And second question if you were either of these players agent and the playoffs just ended and you are just over a week from free agency and you know Armstrong has alluded to using offer sheets and you look at the Oilers cap situation, would you advise your client to take a 1.2 or 1.8 offer at that point or would you tell them to hold off and see if any gm’s reach out on July 1?
I don’t think Broberg ever had the intention of signing before seeing if he could force his way out via offer sheet. But in hindsight I think management screwed up by not getting Holloway done in season. Maybe 1.2M is more than he’s worth at that point and you’re trying to watch every dollar but if you get him signed then it doesn’t leave you as exposed.
Overall, it sucks losing good prospects that you’ve put time into but it’s not a complete loss. They also managed to pick up a top 10 pick who was drafted a year before Holloway and has actually shown more at the NHL level and also added another recent top 10 pick who looks near ready and still has 3 years of elc.
Also, I really like the addition of Emberson. I put a lot of stock into Bruce Curlocks opinion and while I think overall Brobergs potential upside is more attractive I think Emberson is a better fit, both in position and style, for the teams needs right now.
It's coming out with more commentary about the Broberg relationship likely being more fractious than maybe publicly known. It certainly needed more attention and pro-active measures than slow cooking the way they've always done with RFA's. Discuss prospective sign and trade options. Be able to respond if the market changes (as warned going back to June). The Oilers were pro-active with McLeod shortly after their season ended. Made a solid move to create some cap savings and build up an anemic prospect pipeline.
This is not on the players or their agents. They caught the Oilers with their pants down with a known suitor going back to last year's trade deadline. Holloway was critical in this perfectly executed poison pill offer sheet. Again pro-activity to protect an important young player could have mitigated a high risk of two top young players signing the now historic offer sheet. Despite deep agency experience versed in leveraging the system Jackson failed to see danger. Newby Bowman who was hired for living through Cup champion cap dancing missed it too. I highly doubt Broberg or maybe even Holloway would have signed in January (though with Holloway's inexperienced manager it is a possibility).
Polkozlin is one year advance of Holloway. A decent fallback who quite possibly reset as a 3W or 4W vs top 6 projected. A Russian player who always has a door open to return home to play. And an organization that hasn't been a magnet for attracting or keeping Russian talent. Not saying Polkozin is wired that way but risks.
I'm open minded mostly for Emberson given his one year history and performance with Knoblauch. It is possible for young players to be caught in challenging development situations and deliver in fresh situations. Of course that also applies to the Blues steadfast pursuit of Broberg with the value-add of also snaking Holloway for a 3rd.
The net result of failing to see this real threat ultimately is the Oilers organization's loss of value NHL contracts and their top 2 young players. Move out of a 20 minute PK guy who did hard minute icetime, loved and respected as a teammate. Now looking at 3 career 6-7 d-men to step up into minutes and responsibilities on a Cup window team, not non-playoff teams. And likely more assets to bridge the 2RD gulf required for deep playoff runs. Upside is they can look for a natural right hander. The challenge is that quality right hander d carry about a 10% premium on contract costs and are likely rarest of rare commodity to find.
This management group was working with a largely table set roster to run at a hopeful return to the Cup. Instead they've created more question marks this season and in fostering a desired winning window with its two super elites on the clock with their contracts.