Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread: Hallsy Take 2?

[MessierII]

If Oilers want a cheap fix, I think just calling up Benson would really change the dynamics of the team. He's ready.

What’s changed since camp where he didn’t look close?

 

[belair]

What we do know for a fact though is the week end before Craig Mactavish was stripped of power by Bob Nicholson, Mac T told the media that changes needed to be made and everyone was on the block. That Nicholson went on Primetime Sports two days later to announce he was now running hockey ops for the Edmonton Oilers and that none of the core players were going to be traded is a pretty big indication Mactavish was about to do something. That’s where Leavins is drawing his conclusions from. I don’t think it’s that unreasonable.

Unless MacT was shopping one of those guys for a package of valuable futures, I can't really see much of a reason for him to be looking for a trade at that point in time.

And honestly that group had no one to blame but themselves for the complete lack of prospect depth that ultimately resulted in that poor roster depth riddled with inflated UFA contracts.

 

[bucks_oil]

Short answer? Yes.

I don't envision a successful defense that has more than two rookies on it. Specifically in roles that a player like Nurse is relied upon to fill. It has taken a number of years for Nurse to become the player he is today. We're a number of years away from a number of these guys to become the players they'll eventually become. Some won't even make it.

In the short term I expect at least two of the three guys losing the waiver exemption next year to be traded. Bear being the least likely.

Moving forward, I expect Nurse, Klefbom and Larsson to do most of the heavy lifting on our defense. Simply because growing pains aren't necessary.

Klefbom, Larsson and Russel are on this team next year regardless of what else we do (Klef we don't trade IMO, Larsson we don't get value for IMO and Russell only has one year left and you can absorb it for a vet on the bottom pair).

It's very early to say, but Bear and Persson, are both looking likely bets to be in the longer term plans... that means you sorta want to protect them in 2021.

That leaves only one "rookie" in the top 6... likely Bouchard.

I'm not saying I'd do it... and I agree that if we want to avoid growing pains, we'd have hoped for one more year on Nurse's contract, but I just think that at some point you have to consider utilizing that depth or (like Boston and others) we are definitely losing it in expansion.

If committing to Nurse means $7M... I dunno... that feels like it's a bit above my tipping point. I honestly don't know that the growing pains would be that terrible next season, but it's based on the following assumptions:
1) Klef and Larsson are split up, lessening the "playing above their head" experience for the two young guys in the top-4
2) I'm assuming one of Bear or Persson proves themselves top-4 capable this year, the other is the star of the bottom pairing in 2020
3) I'm assuming Bouchard is absolutely top-4 material next year... that might be the biggest risk.
4) We still have Broberg, Laggesson and Jones looking to push for a spot in 2020

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to keep Nurse if we can fit him in long term... but he would bring a bigger return than anyone else and $7M feels like a lot for our current salary structure.

 

[bucks_oil]

So in the instance one goes down, who plays the 2C role?

You do realize RNH plays 20 minutes on average, all situations often against other teams' top offensive threats, right?

McDavid/Draisaitl together has us at 6-1. Letting RNH walk thins out our depth at center, splits up the league's most potent offensive duo and relies on us finding two productive free agents below market value.

RNH is currently earning the raise he's likely to receive in two years. It's likely going to cost us about $2m when all is said and done. Considering our horrible history going into the UFA market, it surprises me when people continue to rely on it.

Lol, hey... I'm happy to keep them all, but... who do you keep? RNH at $8M or Nurse at $7M?

 

[belair]

Lol, hey... I'm happy to keep them all, but... who do you keep? RNH at $8M or Nurse at $7M?

Both. No reason to shed either of them for a UFA who complicates the cap situation moving forward. Especially an older, more oft-injured one.

 

[Smartguy]

Both. No reason to shed either of them for a UFA who complicates the cap situation moving forward. Especially an older, more oft-injured one.

I agree on trying to retain them both, but how many teams are paying there number 2C 8M right now? But I believe that will change when Hopkins contract does expire and the cap is supposed to rise substantially with that new TV deal. For the most part though I don’t think we want end up like the leafs and have over 30M tied into 3 forwards. Especially considering we already have no depth on the wing.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Hall doesn't play 82 games per season tho. Which is why I decided to go with per season. I rather look what a player brings to the team per season. Not what could have been. His numbers in 35 games last year is really good. Might even be his best if he played 82 games but 35 games is 35 games. It doesn't get the Oilers anywhere.

I didn't like the way you framed it, Hall is a substantially better even strength point producer. Yes he does get injured more often than Nuge, but when both are healthy it's not much of a contest. It's like arguing Shawn Horcoff is equal or better than Peter Forsberg, cause Forsberg was just constantly injured on the back half of his career.

Would the Avs been ok with swapping out Forsberg for Horcoff, despite one generally being far healthier than other? Not a chance in hell. They knew what made them strong, they knew what made them a scary match-up in the playoffs, it was being able to run 2 first lines that could torch you up in an instant. It sucked that you couldn't always depend on Forsberg, it sucked that he might get injured at the most inconvenient time and significantly hurt their chances at a Stanley Cup, but they knew a good dependable replacement wasn't good enough, they needed the spectacular.

Going for a good, but far from great 2nd line winger and a pretty good 3rd line center sounds to me like potentially a more stable plan to become a regular playoff team, but I'd prefer to be an irregular playoff team with a real shot at winning a cup rather than the routine playoff team with no real chance at it. A lot needs to go right to win a Stanley Cup, I think the aim should be for the team with the highest xenith, like a tidal wave that is almost unstoppable when things go right, a high stable wave doesn't tend to be high enough to win it all. A lot of people seem to be ok with a great first line and then a mediocre 2nd, 3rd, and 4th line which has never been a real recipe to become a Stanley Cup champion, maybe you luck into more through drafting, but that's pretty up in the air.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
The way I see it we've got 2 potential paths to be a Stanley Cup caliber team-

1) We add a superstar impact forward on the 2nd line to make that line a routine threat to score. While we will likely still need some improvement on the 3rd line, I think it is easier to take some gambles and luck into an affordable and great 3rd line than try to luck into a game breaking talent. A dynamite one-two punch and slightly above average bottom six contributions has won quite a few cups. This model is similar to the Avs and the Lightning when they won, I kind of want to say Chicago, but their drafting provided them with some pretty great depth though their last cup relied on some key mercenary additions.

2) We try to win with Center quality, you go McDavid, Drai, and RNH up the middle and then you supplement our current group with somewhere between 3-4 wingers who can contribute offensively (atleast one of those 4 need to provide some utility on top of offense. It's also important that atleast two of our wingers are cheap/cost effective they don't all need to be star wingers, just guys who step up like Chiasson for us last year or Pisani on our cup run plus maybe one rookie like a Jake Guentzel. I'm not as big a fan of this model, because I just love seeing Connor and Leon play together they have such great chemistry and with this model it requires constant winger turnover cause as the wingers step up, they tend to price themselves out of you being able to perpetuate this model. This model is similar to the Pens and Canes when they won.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Wonder if the Jets would do something around Ehlers/Larsson.
They're right side is junk and with Persson/Bear emerging we can afford to lose him

That would be a real gift to us, I don't think Chevy is that stupid, but he did have a bit of a rough offseason.

Lol, hey... I'm happy to keep them all, but... who do you keep? RNH at $8M or Nurse at $7M?

A lot will depend on how each play between now and when an extension is necessary and what the salary cap is looking to be moving forward, I'm semi-comfortable with RNH at $7.5M and I'm starting to become semi-comfortable with Nurse at $6.25M, given my Nuge number is closer I'm more comfortable paying him that contract.

 

[McDNicks17]

Wonder if the Jets would do something around Ehlers/Larsson.
They're right side is junk and with Persson/Bear emerging we can afford to lose him

I think you'd be looking at something closer to Little for Larsson.

 

[Cloned]

I think you'd be looking at something closer to Little for Larsson.

I proposed that and got the gears given to me by HFOil.

 

[TameYew]

Lol, hey... I'm happy to keep them all, but... who do you keep? RNH at $8M or Nurse at $7M?

There is no way rnh deserves $8M. On the Oilers he is a second line center and should be paid as such.

 

[Bangers]

There is no way rnh deserves $8M. On the Oilers he is a second line center and should be paid as such.

The problem is that there are a few teams on which Nuge would be the 1st line C.

He'll get at least 8 mil - the question is if it will be from the Oil.

 

[Joey Moss]

I think you'd be looking at something closer to Little for Larsson.

Little is 31 years old, signed for 5 more years at 5.2M. Larsson is 26 years old signed for 2 more at 4.1.

Gonna have to disagree here.

 

[McDNicks17]

Little is 31 years old, signed for 5 more years at 5.2M. Larsson is 26 years old signed for 2 more at 4.1.

Gonna have to disagree here.

I didn't say that Little = Larsson. Just that Larsson's value is likely closer to a Little than an Ehlers.

If Larsson could fetch a 23 year old winger with a couple 60 points seasons signed long-term, I think he'd be long gone.

 

[Roof Daddy]

Wonder if the Jets would do something around Ehlers/Larsson.
They're right side is junk and with Persson/Bear emerging we can afford to lose him

We’d have to add considerably. Larsson+Pulju+2nd? Probably still not good enough, but one can dream.

 

[Joey Moss]

I didn't say that Little = Larsson. Just that Larsson's value is likely closer to a Little than an Ehlers.

If Larsson could fetch a 23 year old winger with a couple 60 points seasons signed long-term, I think he'd be long gone.

Ehlers also has 0 goals in 21 playoff games. Eberle at the age of 23 had multiple 60 point seasons. Players like Ehlers are overvalued by fans and media. I don't think the value of Larsson and Ehlers is that far off. Probably a difference of a pick from Edmonton.

Meanwhile Little has negative value.

 

[Cloned]

Ehlers also has 0 goals in 21 playoff games. Eberle at the age of 23 had multiple 60 point seasons. Players like Ehlers are overvalued by fans and media. I don't think the value of Larsson and Ehlers is that far off. Probably a difference of a pick from Edmonton.

Meanwhile Little has negative value.

Little is coming off something like six straight 40 point seasons. He doesn’t have negative value.

 

[McDNicks17]

Ehlers also has 0 goals in 21 playoff games. Eberle at the age of 23 had multiple 60 point seasons. Players like Ehlers are overvalued by fans and media. I don't think the value of Larsson and Ehlers is that far off. Probably a difference of a pick from Edmonton.

Meanwhile Little has negative value.

I'm pretty sure no NHL GM or anyone on here would have traded a 23 year old Eberle for a struggling #4D.

 

[Joey Moss]

Little is coming off something like six straight 40 point seasons. He doesn’t have negative value.

He'll be 37 when his contract expires. He's currently a really good 3rd line center, but he makes too much to be anyone's 3rd line center.

The Jets would certainly have to take a poor contract back.

 

[Cloned]

He'll be 37 when his contract expires. He's currently a really good 3rd line center, but he makes too much to be anyone's 3rd line center.

The Jets would certainly have to take a poor contract back.

5M isn’t really as bad as it used to be. It’s pretty much the going rate for a non-ELC 2nd line forward. And a lot of 3rd line forwards make 4-5M. He’s overpaid at most by 1M.

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

5M isn’t really as bad as it used to be. It’s pretty much the going rate for a non-ELC 2nd line forward. And a lot of 3rd line forwards make 4-5M. He’s overpaid at most by 1M.

Maybe but I think I'd still avoid him and try to save the room to chase a bigger fish later either in free agency or trade.

I don't think the Oilers are a Little away from competing so it's best to remain flexible as they head into their next window.

Maybe if we're lucky Haas or Marody will step up.

 

[rboomercat90]

Unless MacT was shopping one of those guys for a package of valuable futures, I can't really see much of a reason for him to be looking for a trade at that point in time.

And honestly that group had no one to blame but themselves for the complete lack of prospect depth that ultimately resulted in that poor roster depth riddled with inflated UFA contracts.

Who knows what he was planning? Building a team wasn’t really a priority for that group. The team was underperforming and he was likely desperate to try and save Eakins job with a desperation shake up of the roster.

 

[McDrailers]

There is no way rnh deserves $8M. On the Oilers he is a second line center and should be paid as such.

agreed. In no world is RNH worth 8m.

 

[McXLNC97]

The problem is that there are a few teams on which Nuge would be the 1st line C.

He'll get at least 8 mil - the question is if it will be from the Oil.

Nah, doubt it. Duchene only got 8m, and he was one of the biggest names out there in free agency this summer. Could see Nuge getting a little bump to maybe 6.75-7m. Guy just recently got married and has been here since 2011, he may just be interesting in sticking around and not uprooting, especially if the team looks a lot more competitive. Eberle stayed put in NY and actually signed for less than his previous deal @6m.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

If you give nurse 7 then you cant afford bear