Sadly you have not because you continue to ignore the impact of a center playing in a two, three or four line rotation or a derivative of the same.
Your data and analysis assume they all played in an identical rotation. They did not. So the data you generate or use has this flaw.
OK, I suppose the point you’re trying to make is that some sort of adjustment should be made to Lemaire’s points relative to the other players’ points. Please elaborate on why and how much.
Second flaw is that your data assumes that Centers and LW score at the same rate. They do not. So against centers the offensive numbers look slightly weaker yet against LWs are unknown. Seems you failed to consider them or adjust accordingly?
It’s true that centers tend to score more than LWs. However, centers tend to be the better players to begin with, and that explains a lot of it. However, I think that it’s true that the same player playing entirely LW is going to see
somewhat lower scoring stats than in a season where they play entirely center. That said, the difference is not extremely meaningful if referring to a player who spent perhaps 15% of his time at LW and the rest at center.
Has anyone attempted to quantify and demonstrate the points “spike†caused by playing center? I’m not denying that the correlation is not there, but it does not appear to be large. It would be an important thing to know for the wingers project, as some players with seasons at center could get overvalued in comparisons against strict wingers.
Third flaw is your use of the Lafleur impact. Only significant time Lemaire spent with Lafleur was after the Pete Mahovlich for Pierre Larouche trade, slightly over two seasons when injury time is factored out. His time at center outside the brief Lafleur phase was spent with Yvan Cournoyer and part of the center rotation with Frank Mahovlish, who during this phase had his two most productive NHL seasons, just like Lafleur did when playing significant time with Lemaire.
I don’t think anyone is debating that a lesser skilled, “utility†player can have a positive impact on an offensive superstar. In fact, recent studies have proven that “glue guys†like Burrows, Hartnell and Downie have made their more talented linemates better when on the ice with them than without. But the fact remains that players like this do pick up a large surplus of points by virtue of being on the ice with more talented players, and Lemaire is no exception to this. In determining his offensive value, some attention has to be given to who his linemates are. That said, he comes out at the bottom of my offensive analysis even before making such a consideration.
Fourth flaw is that you only consider the regular season stats for the above average centers you interject. Most dropped significantly come playoff time. Brind'Amour as an example, dropped close to 20% below his regular season performance which was about .80 PPG. Only two worth considering based on their playoff record are Lemaire and Zetterberg. Lemaire marginally better than RS. Both have a post season where they led the POs in goal scoring and points.
Of course I agree that playoff performance is an important consideration. However, looking at whether a player’s production rose or fell in the playoffs is not always the litmus test for this. Some eras saw an across-the-board drop in scoring from the regular season that was more drastic than others. One era even featured a rise in scoring. Some playoff eras were more imbalanced than others. And dynasty players tended to play a ton of winning games (in which their team, and by extension, they, tended to score more). Although Lemaire was a strong playoff performer, comparing his playoff to RS ratio to these other players on its own doesn’t prove that he was better in this regard, and especially not that he was “better enough†to make up for the large regular season gap.
(by the way, Brind’Amour dropped 13% from the regular season to the playoffs (not 20%), which is pretty strong for the era, and played the majority of his playoff games on an underdog team against stronger teams than he typically played in the regular season)
The gap between Zetterberg and Lemaire is close. Most of it comes down to evaluating time at LW and team impact.
It’s not close. Zetterberg was a 9% better offensive producer with less talented linemates, better defensively, even more versatile, and just as strong in the playoffs – with a smythe.
I still maintain that you should have been hearing alarm bells if you read your own reasoning there.
