Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 13: Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL)

[FLYguy3911]

One interesting tidbit from Danny's PC is that he implied Luchanko would be a four year Junior player. I get tempering expectations, but he wasn't really pressed for that answer and he gave it anyway. In today's game, you pick this high in the draft, the expectation is your first rounder is knocking on the door in his D+2. Not that getting to the NHL first is the best indicator, but I'll bet barring a holdout, Buium will be in the NHL within two years.

there's a reason why he fell to 12 in the first place.

Can we apply this to Michkov last year or no?

 

[Nabrules]

One interesting tidbit from Danny's PC is that he implied Luchanko would be a four year Junior player. I get tempering expectations, but he wasn't really pressed for that answer and he gave it anyway. In today's game, you pick this high in the draft, the expectation is your first rounder is knocking on the door in his D+2. Not that getting to the NHL first is the best indicator, but I'll bet barring a holdout, Buium will be in the NHL within two years.


Can we apply this to Michkov last year or no?

Not really. With the Russian Factor, the contract, and him ghosting some teams during draft week, it’s no that comparable.

 

[Random Forest]

One interesting tidbit from Danny's PC is that he implied Luchanko would be a four year Junior player. I get tempering expectations, but he wasn't really pressed for that answer and he gave it anyway. In today's game, you pick this high in the draft, the expectation is your first rounder is knocking on the door in his D+2. Not that getting to the NHL first is the best indicator, but I'll bet barring a holdout, Buium will be in the NHL within two years.


Can we apply this to Michkov last year or no?

If Luchanko makes the WJC team next year and puts up 90+ points, I’d be shocked if he goes back to juniors the following year.

If either of those things don’t happen, I could see it. And at that point the pick would look quite disappointing.

I don’t follow junior transactions that closely: is Guelph supposed to be more competitive next year? Is there any chance he’s traded to a better team? And is he close to a lock for the WJC? I have to imagine he’s the type of player Canada would consider a lock given speed, versatility, and intangibles.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

The whole "other teams passed on him so there must be something we don't know" is so lazy. How many teams passed on Giroux? How many passed on Pastranak? Patrice Bergeron was a 2nd rd pick for crying out loud. Just cause a team passes on a player doesn't mean shit. The Flyers passed and admitted they think Buium is a good player. The drafted the need and not the talent and that is what pisses people off

 

[Strawberry Fields]

The whole "other teams passed on him so there must be something we don't know" is so lazy. How many teams passed on Giroux? How many passed on Pastranak? Patrice Bergeron was a 2nd rd pick for crying out loud. Just cause a team passes on a player doesn't mean shit. The Flyers passed and admitted they think Buium is a good player. The drafted the need and not the talent and that is what pisses people off

I mean, a bonafide top dman is also a pretty big need.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

I mean, a bonafide top dman is also a pretty big need.

yea but Buium 6 feet he too smol when we have York, Drysdale, and Andrae. All game breakers

 

[Magua]

After Celebrini, you can legitimately argue for all of Lindstrom, Demidov, Iginla, Catton, Parekh over Buium, even if I wouldn't necessarily. But it's not remotely crazy to just prefer one of them. You can even throw in Dickinson in that safer projection way.

So, really it's Levshunov, Sennecke, Yakemchuk, Silayev. 2 of those went top 3. I'd be pretty surprised if those don't all look bad in the years to come. Assuming they just "know something" is a cop out. Minnesota was so desperate for Buium they traded up 1 spot thinking the Flyers would take him (HAHA).

Jersey is the surprising team, since they're relatively competent, but I think they did the questionable process thing the Flyers did: there's real usage issues with another elite offensive defender. Except, they made the call that with Hamilton, L. Hughes, and Nemec. It's still bad, but it's a far cry from York, Drysdale, and Andrae.

 

[Jettany]

I don’t think it’s unheard of for a team to dislike an agent. Think that happens in every sport. But you can’t let it affect your decision on drafting a certain player.

Agreed. Just wondering why this kid was still available at 12. The way a lot of people see him on this board it means up to 8-10 teams passed on him.

 

[Juicy Pop]

Agreed. Just wondering why this kid was still available at 12. The way a lot of people see him on this board it means up to 8-10 teams passed on him.

Assuming that it's better to go with the players who have proven more, whereas he's a late riser who needs another great year to justify the pick.

 

[Jettany]

Assuming that it's better to go with the players who have proven more, whereas he's a late riser who needs another great year to justify the pick.

No. I was speaking of the defenseman the flyers passed on.

 

[Hexxxy]

The whole "other teams passed on him so there must be something we don't know" is so lazy. How many teams passed on Giroux? How many passed on Pastranak? Patrice Bergeron was a 2nd rd pick for crying out loud. Just cause a team passes on a player doesn't mean shit. The Flyers passed and admitted they think Buium is a good player. The drafted the need and not the talent and that is what pisses people off

is it lazy or is it reality? Fact is 12 teams passed on Buium and he was what the 5th or 6th D taken? The argument that teams passed on Giroux and Paternak is not sincere. 12 teams also passed on Luchanko; only one team passed on Nolan Patrick.

They viewed the talent and upside as equal. Hence the flyers went C, which Briere said he would do if the players were equal. My bet is Briere would have gone Dickinson or Catton had they been available. Buium was just not rated as highly as most casual observers here rated him.

 

[Juicy Pop]

No. I was speaking of the defenseman the flyers passed on.

My bet would be interviews

 

[Hexxxy]

Assuming that it's better to go with the players who have proven more, whereas he's a late riser who needs another great year to justify the pick.

this is the argument: Briere thinks he's bill bellichick level genius drafting an out of the box sleeper when all he drafted was a one year wonder and workout warrior. Not that I buy the argument but it seems some teams did sniff the late-developing vapors on Luchanko.

 

[Jettany]

The whole "other teams passed on him so there must be something we don't know" is so lazy. How many teams passed on Giroux? How many passed on Pastranak? Patrice Bergeron was a 2nd rd pick for crying out loud. Just cause a team passes on a player doesn't mean shit. The Flyers passed and admitted they think Buium is a good player. The drafted the need and not the talent and that is what pisses people off

Lazy? Were they passed on or were drafted close to their pre draft ranking? Was G ranked 5-10 and fell? I don’t think that was the case.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The trade up using the pick we got for moving down in the first to grab a defensemen makes no sense to me. You had basically the consensus #1 d fall to your laps and you passed on him for a guy you could have gotten like 10 picks later. If you really wanted him you could have taken Buium with the 12 then trade the 32 and another pick to move up to take Jett. Instead you reached on your first pick, traded the 32 to defer for another year, and then the asset you got for passing on the best d man in the draft was used to move up to draft... A lesser d man? Wtf

They aren't even thinking through the draft, there is no way they have any deeper long term plan

 

[Beef Invictus]

Lazy? Were they passed on or were drafted close to their pre draft ranking? Was G ranked 5-10 and fell? I don’t think that was the case.

TK is a good example. Ranked top 10 and dropped far. It was assumed everyone must know something.

They did not.

 

[Jettany]

The trade up using the pick we got for moving down in the first to grab a defensemen makes no sense to me. You had basically the consensus #1 d fall to your laps and you passed on him for a guy you could have gotten like 10 picks later. If you really wanted him you could have taken Buium with the 12 then trade the 32 and another pick to move up to take Jett. Instead you reached on your first pick, traded the 32 to defer for another year, and then the asset you got for passing on the best d man in the draft was used to move up to draft... A lesser d man? Wtf

He was the 6th defenseman drafted? So did they actually pass on the best defenseman. That means 6 other teams blew it even more so. By drafting the same position but an inferior player. I’m not saying they shouldn’t have taken him. The question why didn’t others? If you believe he is the best defenseman in the draft doesn’t that perplex you a bit? And there is really no way, at all, to know when Luchenko would have been picked. Kinda a stretch to fabricate a trade as if it was a given.

 

[Jettany]

TK is a good example. Ranked top 10 and dropped far. It was assumed everyone must know something.

They did not.

Are you sure he was supposed to have been a single digit pick. I really don’t remember that. I thought in the 15-22 range. But I could be wrong. Thought he was a late riser to that range also.

 

[Random Forest]

Konecny did slip at the draft, hence the Flyers trading up to grab him. IIRC, he was ranked in the mid-teens, with some variation given concerns about his size, but he was not expected to last until 24.

But where his slippage was really evident was in the fact that he was considered a potential top 10 guy going into his draft year, given his production in his D-1 season. Barzal also slipped in a similar way, but he didn’t fall as far on draft day.

Pastrnak also had a similar fall in 2014. These were all players who were identified as potential lottery picks before their draft seasons who fell both during the season and on the draft floor despite strong production.

Anyone have an idea what they all had in common??

 

[Jettany]

Konecny did slip at the draft, hence the Flyers trading up to grab him. IIRC, he was ranked in the mid-teens, with some variation given concerns about his size, but he was not expected to last until 24.

But where his slippage was really evident was in the fact that he was considered a potential top 10 guy going into his draft year, given his production in his D-1 season. Barzal also slipped in a similar way, but he didn’t fall as far on draft day.

Pastrnak also had a similar fall in 2014.

Anyone have an idea what they all had in common??

I don’t remember that. I could swear he was a later riser. Not at all in the top 10 to start the year or midway when rankings come out. Yes fell from midteens or so to 24. But never a consideration in the top 10 I believe.


I just checked quick. Central scouting had him 24th mid 16th final. North American skaters.

 

[WolfOfBroadStreet14]

After reading some of his draft reports, there are similarities to Barzals draft reports during his draft year. Albeit Barzal was projected a little higher. If he gets close to that ceiling I could certainly live with that.

 

[Random Forest]

I don’t remember that. I could swear he was a later riser. Not at all in the top 10 to start the year or midway when rankings come out. Yes fell from midteens or so to 24. But never a consideration in the top 10 I believe.


I just checked quick. Central scouting had him 24th mid 16th final. North American skaters.

Bob McKenzie’s end of season list had him at #15 (McKenzie's Final 2015 Ranking: McDavid, Eichel and... - TSN.ca), and the pre-season list had him at 10 (2014-15 NHL Pre-Season Draft Rankings).

So my recollection was correct: he was a pre-season top ranked player, and fell slightly during the season to mid-teens… then even further on draft day.

 

[Jettany]

After reading some of his draft reports, there are similarities to Barzals draft reports during his draft year. Albeit Barzal was projected a little higher. If he gets close to that ceiling I could certainly live with that.

Time will tell. the Flyers usually pick well in the first round. Minus a few, Patrick, o’brien, rubtsov. Even Provoro

One interesting tidbit from Danny's PC is that he implied Luchanko would be a four year Junior player. I get tempering expectations, but he wasn't really pressed for that answer and he gave it anyway. In today's game, you pick this high in the draft, the expectation is your first rounder is knocking on the door in his D+2. Not that getting to the NHL first is the best indicator, but I'll bet barring a holdout, Buium will be in the NHL within two years.


Can we apply this to Michkov last year or no?

If the defenseman let it be known he would only play for the wild. Then yes.

After reading some of his draft reports, there are similarities to Barzals draft reports during his draft year. Albeit Barzal was projected a little higher. If he gets close to that ceiling I could certainly live with that.

Time will tell. the Flyers usually pick well in the first round. Minus a few, Patrick, o’brien, rubtsov. Even Provoro

One interesting tidbit from Danny's PC is that he implied Luchanko would be a four year Junior player. I get tempering expectations, but he wasn't really pressed for that answer and he gave it anyway. In today's game, you pick this high in the draft, the expectation is your first rounder is knocking on the door in his D+2. Not that getting to the NHL first is the best indicator, but I'll bet barring a holdout, Buium will be in the NHL within two years.


Can we apply this to Michkov last year or no?

If the defenseman let it be known he would only play for the wild.

 

[Jettany]

Bob McKenzie’s end of season list had him at #15 (McKenzie's Final 2015 Ranking: McDavid, Eichel and... - TSN.ca), and his pre-season list had him at 10 (2014-15 NHL Pre-Season Draft Rankings).

So my recollection was correct: he was a pre-season top ranked player, and fell slightly during the season… then even further on draft day.

Crazy difference between the 2 then. Central scouting was closer to 35 to start the year.

Time will tell. the Flyers usually pick well in the first round. Minus a few, Patrick, o’brien, rubtsov. Even Provoro

If the defenseman let it be known he would only play for the wild. Then yes.


Time will tell. the Flyers usually pick well in the first round. Minus a few, Patrick, o’brien, rubtsov. Even Provoro

If the defenseman let it be known he would only play for the wild.

This site to post is brutal from an iPad.

 

[freakydallas13]

is it lazy or is it reality? Fact is 12 teams passed on Buium and he was what the 5th or 6th D taken? The argument that teams passed on Giroux and Paternak is not sincere. 12 teams also passed on Luchanko; only one team passed on Nolan Patrick.

They viewed the talent and upside as equal. Hence the flyers went C, which Briere said he would do if the players were equal. My bet is Briere would have gone Dickinson or Catton had they been available. Buium was just not rated as highly as most casual observers here rated him.

The wild traded up one spot because they were desperate to draft him, what should we think about that?