Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 13: Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL)

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freakydallas13

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Bob McKenzie’s end of season list had him at #15 (McKenzie's Final 2015 Ranking: McDavid, Eichel and... - TSN.ca), and the pre-season list had him at 10 (2014-15 NHL Pre-Season Draft Rankings).

So my recollection was correct: he was a pre-season top ranked player, and fell slightly during the season to mid-teens… then even further on draft day.
McKenzie's list is based on teams wanting players, not the players being ranked in and of themselves. For all we know, Jett rose in the rankings because he spoke with someone in the Flyers and the Flyers said they liked him.

IE, he could be ranked that high because they Flyers wanted him that badly.
 
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mr figgles

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Random Forest

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McKenzie's list is based on teams wanting players, not the players being ranked in and of themselves. For all we know, Jett rose in the rankings because he spoke with someone in the Flyers and the Flyers said they liked him.

IE, he could be ranked that high because they Flyers wanted him that badly.
I wasn’t talking about Luchanko.
 
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Magua

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After reading some of his draft reports, there are similarities to Barzals draft reports during his draft year.

There is a chasm of difference in their skating and skill level. Barzal is a top 1% transition player and passer. Catton would be the closest Barzal-type this class, and he's not even as physically gifted. Even stylistically, Luchanko is quite a ways away. For your sanity, I urge you to like Jett's game for what it is.
 

FLYguy3911

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We can play the 'Why did they let Player X slip' game, but we literally saw this same scenario play out last year. It just happened in the 20s. They passed passed on Perreault, a top 10 guy according to McKenzie's rankings, for Bonk who went at his earliest possible range of outcomes. You'll never guess why Perreault fell?

Now if you are happy with Bonk don't let me rain on your parade, but that decision looks...not great a year later.

We just witnessed a draft where the entire league would not draft a defensemen under 6 foot and we are going to galaxy brain why Buium made it all the way to 12. Teams that draft in the top 10 draft there for a reason. They don't make the most sound decisions. *cough*Ottawa*cough*

I don’t follow junior transactions that closely: is Guelph supposed to be more competitive next year? Is there any chance he’s traded to a better team? And is he close to a lock for the WJC? I have to imagine he’s the type of player Canada would consider a lock given speed, versatility, and intangibles.
Couldn't tell ya. Guelph's roster doesn't look great to my eye but I don't know enough about the u18 talent in the OHL this year. Whether he gets traded or not will likely depend on how confident they are that he'll play in the NHL at 19. Or they could just decide to rebuild a year early.
 

Random Forest

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Re: Barzal, totally different type of “good skater”. Barzal has some of the most fluid edge work I’ve ever seen. His ability to control his edges in one direction while his torso & hands move in opposition *at speed* and with the puck on his stick is what makes him so deceptive as an offensive.

Luchanko seems to be primarily a fast skater. Which is good. But if the ability to handle the puck at speed and use his edges deceptively isn’t there, then… he’s just a fast skater.
 

Random Forest

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I can’t get over Buium being described as “small”. The Panthers’ success may single handedly backslide the (small) amount of progress on the size front that’s happened over the last decade+.

Which is infinitely more stupid than it already would be because their single best defensive asset is “only” 6’.
 

CerpinTaxt

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is it lazy or is it reality? Fact is 12 teams passed on Buium and he was what the 5th or 6th D taken? The argument that teams passed on Giroux and Paternak is not sincere. 12 teams also passed on Luchanko; only one team passed on Nolan Patrick.

They viewed the talent and upside as equal. Hence the flyers went C, which Briere said he would do if the players were equal. My bet is Briere would have gone Dickinson or Catton had they been available. Buium was just not rated as highly as most casual observers here rated him.
Huh? How is the argument that teams passed on giroux and pastranak not sincere? The argument is that passing on a player doesn't mean shit when it comes to evaluation of said player. I'm sure teams passed on Giroux cause he is a smol boy, but dude put up 103 pts in his draft year. He was also passed up in his Q draft and had to earn his spot on a team so not only were all those teams wrong, he had a proven work hard ethic.
Lazy? Were they passed on or were drafted close to their pre draft ranking? Was G ranked 5-10 and fell? I don’t think that was the case.
Who the hell cares about pre draft rankings? Cause those are wrong all the time. Again Buium falling has less to do with how good he is and more to do with the dumb decision making processes of the people in charge of NHL teams. Again giroux as an example had 103 pts his draft year. I'm not bothered to look it up but I bet that's top 10 for forwards in his year. He's also been the most productive forward of his draft class (on some shitty Flyers teams no less). So regardless of pre draft ranking to where he was drafted it doesn't matter. The teams who passed on him made a mistake. It's a wonder the Flyers didn't also pass given their size queen sensibilities.
 
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Beef Invictus

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And, fast without the puck isn't the same as fast with the puck. A fast skater who struggles when the opposition challenges them while carrying is at risk of being closer to a Powe than a Tippett. But he's young. With time to evolve. I may abhor the management process but as usual I'll put the most stock in actual pro games when it comes to the player

(Powe is not an expectation I have or a serious comparable, just a familiar player to set at the other end of the spectrum)
 

LegionOfDoom91

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A lot of the wow picks after the fact in the NHL are often guys that were really productive at the lower levels but the NHL just galaxy brained it whether it be because of size or other dumb reasons.

Like yeah every once in a while you get guys like Chara & Lucic that do develop offensively after the fact & beat the odds but those guys statistically a lot more rarer than the NHL thinks.
 

Random Forest

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A lot of the wow picks after the fact in the NHL are often guys that were really productive at the lower levels but the NHL just galaxy brained it whether it be because of size or other dumb reasons.

Like yeah every once in a while you get guys like Chara & Lucic that do develop offensively after the fact & beat the odds but those guys statistically a lot more rarer than the NHL thinks.
This is why traditional “scouting” is mostly bullshit. The entire purpose is to convince yourself that the obvious observable things are actually complicated by esoteric knowledge that only your bright hockey mind can uncover. It’s literally their job to do this.

How many 30 year scouting careers were celebrated at the draft? Who TF wants some ancient gray scout making these calls? Does anyone think a 30 year veteran scout has anything valuable to contribute in 2024 by going from rink to rink in Kamloops or wherever searching for some 6’4” winger with “untapped potential”?
 
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Beef Invictus

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This is why “scouting” is mostly bullshit. The entire purpose is to convince yourself that the obvious observable things are actually complicated by esoteric knowledge that only your bright hockey mind can uncover. It’s literally their job to do this.

I can buy that scouting can be crucial to figure out who is actually best for your top 10 pick. Otherwise yeah, I bet you'd have better success just taking the most productive remaining player instead of listening to the one scout is who certain that Flintleigh Braddock from Saskatchatoon is gonna pull the hockey stick from the stone based chiefly on feelings. I mean shit! Personal terrible anecdote: the only fantasy leagues I have won are the NBA and MLB. I know nothing about those sports. I just draft whoever has the best numbers. NFL and NHL I know about, and I use that knowledge to f*** myself by overthinking and trying to be a braingenius. It never works.

For sure there are kinds of context that are important. I sure don't know how to define it without getting too far into the intangible jungle. There's also stuff they can be thrown right out. If a scout is pointing at a few individual games or a small sample size tournament, beware
 

Jettany

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Huh? How is the argument that teams passed on giroux and pastranak not sincere? The argument is that passing on a player doesn't mean shit when it comes to evaluation of said player. I'm sure teams passed on Giroux cause he is a smol boy, but dude put up 103 pts in his draft year. He was also passed up in his Q draft and had to earn his spot on a team so not only were all those teams wrong, he had a proven work hard ethic.

Who the hell cares about pre draft rankings? Cause those are wrong all the time. Again Buium falling has less to do with how good he is and more to do with the dumb decision making processes of the people in charge of NHL teams. Again giroux as an example had 103 pts his draft year. I'm not bothered to look it up but I bet that's top 10 for forwards in his year. He's also been the most productive forward of his draft class (on some shitty Flyers teams no less). So regardless of pre draft ranking to where he was drafted it doesn't matter. The teams who passed on him made a mistake. It's a wonder the Flyers didn't also pass given their size queen sensibilities.
The flyer’s actually reached for him. He was ranked in the 40s I believe. I’m really not understanding any other point you are making. So you are comparing Giroux’ s career to a guy who has never stepped on an nhl rink. You kept saying the defenseman fell. Isn’t that based on his ranking that you say doesn’t matter? Obviously some guys go too late in a draft and some guys too high. Just not getting it at all.
 

CerpinTaxt

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The flyer’s actually reached for him. He was ranked in the 40s I believe. I’m really not understanding any other point you are making. So you are comparing Giroux’ s career to a guy who has never stepped on an nhl rink. You kept saying the defenseman fell. Isn’t that based on his ranking that you say doesn’t matter? Obviously some guys go too late in a draft and some guys too high. Just not getting it at all.
Well then you're not reading my posts cause it's pretty straight forward. Since the draft what I've seen posters on these boards, and what I've seen in general was that it was okay for the Flyers to pass on Buium because 11 other teams did. Why would teams passed on someone that was rated so high there must be something wrong with Buium. I'm saying the fact that he was passed has more to do with the poor decision making NHL Gms do, rather than a reflection of how good a player he is. The Flyers own gm admitted they passed because of reasons that have no reflection of Buium the player

Now to support this argument, I listed some other players that if their draft year were to be redrafted, those players would be picked higher. Obvious hindsight, but it wasn't like they were bad players during their draft years. I looked it up and of forwards drafted in the 1st in 06, only Derrick Brassard and Bryan Little scored more than Giroux as CHL players (Chris f***ing Stewart was drafted before Giroux). You said Giroux was rated in the 40s and the Flyers reached well hmmm wouldn't that have made the ratings wrong and therefore the teams that didn't pick Girous were wrong as well? So the argument that teams passing on a player should not be used when evaluating how good that player is. If I remember correctly I think the Flyers drafted Giroux only cause Simon Nolet had to practically beg them to(did this with Gagne as well)
 
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LegionOfDoom91

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Parkeh is also 6', and I think Buium looks more physically solid. A Norris winner hasn't been above 6'1 since Hedman in 2017-18. Quite a few under 6'.

The Flyers would take David Reinbacher over Quinn Hughes as prospects, and I'm not even second guessing it.

I saw a Detroit writer quote tweet Briere’s tweet on why they passed up Buium. He essentially said this is pretty much what Detroit said when they passed up Quinn Hughes in 2018. Fast forward to now Hughes is one of the best defensemen in the league & the guys that made him redundant to draft in their eyes don’t even play for Detroit anymore, some never even made it to the NHL. :laugh:
 

BigToe

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This is why traditional “scouting” is mostly bullshit. The entire purpose is to convince yourself that the obvious observable things are actually complicated by esoteric knowledge that only your bright hockey mind can uncover. It’s literally their job to do this.

How many 30 year scouting careers were celebrated at the draft? Who TF wants some ancient gray scout making these calls? Does anyone think a 30 year veteran scout has anything valuable to contribute in 2024 by going from rink to rink in Kamloops or wherever searching for some 6’4” winger with “untapped potential”?
Genuinely don’t think you need more than 2 scouts on a team.
 

Jettany

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Well then you're not reading my posts cause it's pretty straight forward. Since the draft what I've seen posters on these boards, and what I've seen in general was that it was okay for the Flyers to pass on Buium because 11 other teams did. Why would teams passed on someone that was rated so high there must be something wrong with Buium. I'm saying the fact that he was passed has more to do with the poor decision making NHL Gms do, rather than a reflection of how good a player he is. The Flyers own gm admitted they passed because of reasons that have no reflection of Buium the player

Now to support this argument, I listed some other players that if their draft year were to be redrafted, those players would be picked higher. Obvious hindsight, but it wasn't like they were bad players during their draft years. I looked it up and of forwards drafted in the 1st in 06, only Derrick Brassard and Bryan Little scored more than Giroux as CHL players (Chris f***ing Stewart was drafted before Giroux). You said Giroux was rated in the 40s and the Flyers reached well hmmm wouldn't that have made the ratings wrong and therefore the teams that didn't pick Girous were wrong as well? So the argument that teams passing on a player should not be used when evaluating how good that player is. If I remember correctly I think the Flyers drafted Giroux only cause Simon Nolet had to practically beg them to(did this with Gagne as well)
Yes it was wrong on Giroux. And it was wrong on Alexander Daigle. Your post is based 100% on hindsight. Redrafting is easy. So I dont see how this applies to a guy who has never played a game. You say the NHL GMs made a poor decision passing on him. How do you know? From the rankings that you say mean nothing?

And isn’t that the job of a good scout to go to bat for a player they love? And it’s up to the GM to make the final decision. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Just look at Nolan Patrick.
 

CerpinTaxt

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Yes it was wrong on Giroux. And it was wrong on Alexander Daigle. Your post is based 100% on hindsight. Redrafting is easy. So I dont see how this applies to a guy who has never played a game. You say the NHL GMs made a poor decision passing on him. How do you know? From the rankings that you say mean nothing?

And isn’t that the job of a good scout to go to bat for a player they love? And it’s up to the GM to make the final decision. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Just look at Nolan Patrick.
How do I know? Cause they do it all the time. Again man youre not reading my post. Let me bold it this time

Using the argument that a player is bad, or something must be wrong with him, because he was passed on by multiple teams is a poor way to evaluate players. This is the same argument that if a player is waived and not picked up he must also be bad. There does this help?

Time will tell if these 11 NHL gms made the right call or not, but the process here was all wrong. Flyers didnt pick based on talent but on need, they admitted this. This is what leads to good players being passed and then years later fans saying "how did they pass on that guy?!"
 
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Beef Invictus

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Genuinely don’t think you need more than 2 scouts on a team.

Yeah this draft has me rapidly moving this way too. Lightning fast. Like a 180. Previously I'd thought more is better. Whole lot of overthinking from a lot of teams and ignoring actual results for nonsense makes me think maybe we need streamlining and fewer guys thinking too much.

I'm thinking change their role. Their job is to watch everything and track events/outcomes. Then report who has the best on-ice results. That's it. Figure out who had the best results, and then start at the top. Don't worry about size or elevating guys based on how hard it looks like they're working.
 

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