Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 13: Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL) - 7/6 Upd: Signed 3yr ELC

[JojoTheWhale]

Provorov rebounded when they brought Niskanen in to partner with him.
Same with Sanheim with Braun.

However, Provorov fell back without Niskanen, Sanheim has been able to step up, though 2022-23 was a struggle, without Braun.

There is some merit pairing a young D-man with a reliable veteran, or why they're keeping Seeler around with Drysdale (and maybe Attard), then Bonk, Sotheran, Mills at RHD down the road.

They brought in Braun to partner with Provorov, not Niskanen. Yet another reminder that someone or everyone involved did not understand Provorov as a player.

 

[deadhead]

They brought in Braun to partner with Provorov, not Niskanen. Yet another reminder that someone or everyone involved did not understand Provorov as a player.

Not sure Provorov understood Provorov as a player.

Maybe the worst thing that happened to him was scoring 15 ES goals at 21.
Next six seasons averaged 7 goals at ES.

Created the illusion he was an offensive D-man (and the fact that offense gets overvalued in contracts v contribution to winning motivates players to want a bigger offensive role).

Interesting note, first 3 seasons, averaged 124 hits, next 5, 81 hits.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Not sure Provorov understood Provorov as a player.

I was definitely including him! It was a failure from Hextall straight on down through to Provy for me.

 

[Random Forest]

Yeah I'm gonna stick with it making more sense that the team who hasn't developed a top end defenceman in like 30 years just doesn't know what it's doing.

I’m not going to dig my heels in on rumors, but both things can be true. The rumor is that this was a widespread practice for Russian prospects, and it’s not exactly unbelievable that things in Russia would be done unethically. Doesn’t negate the Flyers’ poor development of Provorov and all defensive prospects, which is obviously true by itself.

You could tell me that Ovechkin is also older than his official birthday suggests, and it wouldn’t negate his 800+ goals or make it any less impressive.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Mythical Niskanen

 

[TCTC]

Entering the Jett Luchanko thread hoping to read some new information about our beloved first round selection.

The vibe I get instead...

 

[FLYguy3911]

This is Provorov at “15”. Pretty standard looking 15 year old. He’s from Yaroslavl. Not exactly a small city.

He just had more on-ice flaws than anyone wanted to admit as a prospect (hell getting people to name one was a chore). And for all of the praise of his mental abilities, turns out he was a stubborn individual. Those flaws were never going to get corrected.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

They brought in Braun to partner with Provorov, not Niskanen. Yet another reminder that someone or everyone involved did not understand Provorov as a player.

I don't think that's true. They did not bring in Braun to be a first pair defenseman.

Niskanen had been a first pair defenseman in his career. Braun had not.

Did Braun ever get any time paired with Provorov?

Niskanen averaged 21:54 TOI/game in his year with the Flyers. Braun averaged 17:54 that season.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Even at the NHL level where there’s more data available Provorov never really put up great defensive impacts at 5v5. He never really put up great special team impacts either especially on the PP. His efficiency numbers weren’t always great but his box score numbers were good because he always played top of the lineup minutes in all situations.

He was basically the equivalent of a four hole hitter in baseball putting up like 90 RBI’s through sheer volume of opportunities despite being a poor hitter with runners on base or just in general.

So suffice to say Provorov was probably always that guy who’s well roundness & higher floor was probably always overstated & never really had an elite/higher end capabilities despite being treated like he does. Hell it was overstated even at the NHL level which I like I said there was more data draw from to illustrate this than compared to juniors.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Didn’t someone claim there were rumors about Provorov having a forged birth certificate and really being like two or three years older?

Sounds absurd at first… but not actually crazy at all on second thought? Would make a whole lot of sense on multiple levels tbh.

There’s been chatter that this was (is?) relatively common practice for Russian prospects. Who on earth could verify some birth certificate from a hospital in Vladivostok or wherever?

This was likely me. I said it on different thread, but that was the word on the street in youth League. All leads back to a man named Louis Denaples. If you Google him you can find a wikipedia page and reddit page for the Scranton area. He owns Keystone Landfill Inc, Denaples auto parts and is the chairman of First National Community Bancrop. According to Wikipedia Mr. Denaples has had quite a few run ins with the law. "In 2008, Denaples was charged with 4 counts of perjury related to his ties with the Bufalino Crime Family. The charges were dropped in 2009 after Denaples agreed to turn over legal control of Mount Airy Casino resort to his family." Plead no contest to conspiarcy charge of defrauding the US government in 1978. In 2001 four informants mentioned a relationship between Denaples and the leader of the Bufalino crime family William D'Elia.

Did you need that information? No. Does it support the rumor? I feel a bit better believing it. Was it worth sharing? Yes, I just learned it and find it fascinating because of this mans impact on youth hockey.

Why is Denaples relevant to Provorov? Well Mr. Denaples son was on the Wilkes-Barre Scranton knights 97 team. They just made the jump to AAA and were trash. To solve the issue of his sons bad team, the dude(I assume hired scouts first) then offered "jobs" to the parents of like 6-8 Russian 13 year olds. A few Canadians heard their squad was looking legit so they decided to join in too. The kids were then "Home Schooled", no evidence, but I imagine Ice hockey was a core component of their circulum.

After that team won nationals for 97 bantam major, one of the few Americans on their team reported to USA hockey that Provorov and a couple of the other Russians on that roster Forged their Birth Certificate and stated that they knew the person they went to for the forgery. He claimed Provorov was born in 1994.

From my own experience, yes, I believe him to be older. I played against him the year after they won the natty, when they jumped to u16. My team was essentially an all star team of 96s left in the Atlantic area. Everyone except me went on to play at least NCAA D-3, one is in the NHL and one is in the AHL. I hit puberty early and was big for my age. I could count on 1 hand the number of times I was laid out by an opposing player up until u18. One was a kid on Shattuck st. Mary's. That kid sent me airborne and that stung, but that was not even close to Provorov. He didn't even hit you. He'd skate into you and you'd fly. The only way to describe it was like a grown man bullying a kid. Smirinov who was Wilkes-Barres best forward and played D-1 PSU then played in the ECHL last season, was a definitely a kid. Nasty skill, but definitely felt younger than me. Nikita Pavlychev 6'7" giant who played at PSU and split between AHL an ECHL last season. Giant, but definitely younger. Big, but catching a body did not feel like a truck. Provorov, supposedly younger than me, bounces my head off the ice barely trying to throw a body. The only time I felt force like that was playing men's league at 170lbs as an 18 year old and a 200lb Joe Schmo moved me out from the net front with ease. It felt like man strength, not wow, strong kid strength.

Now, combine the rumor with the little information listed on Denaples Wikipedia page. Do you think it is at all possible that the man with these resources and apparent link to crime would not only know how to get a birth certificate forged, but take action to do so for his sons hockey team? Considering he was willing to fly every single one in from Russia and provide room and board, I lean towards yes. He was also willing to defraud the U.S. government, but I guess defrauding USA hockey is somehow an unlikely leap from there? It has to be dramatically easier and carry significantly less potential consequence, but nah getting birth certificates forged so his sons team can win nattys is just to far for someone with organized crime links to go!

 

[Beef Invictus]

When Provorov retires at "31" it'll certainly lend credence

 

[FLYguy3911]

Provorov was a top prospect as an 10/11 year old in Russia. This "forgery" would have had to have happen long before he joined a 14U team in the States.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

No Flyer in my lifetime has had such weird conversation around him as Provorov.

• First he was a can't miss star and discussing risks isn't allowed.
• An actual NHL org insisted he had to be used like Drew Doughty at 20.
• Then other development was tossed aside on his altar.
• He refused to switch sides no matter what it cost anyone else.
• He was used as an Extra Attacker????
• He had a hell of a run next to two players better than he was and it was blasphemy to point that out.
• Early in his career, he did so many of the things that lead to good possession metrics and it just never translated.
• Pride debacle and the ensuing worst dialogue possible.
• That weird guy from the CBJ board posted here every day for two weeks when the puck happened to go in and then disappeared when it stopped happening.
• Now he actually voted for Gorbachev because we're doing Wikipedia investigations that include bangers like "I assume" and "no evidence, but."
  
  There's nothing remarkable about his career. He's just another 2nd tier prospect who was fine in the NHL. Don't people ever just want to move on from the bullshit? Ok, well all of those except getting thrown out there at 6v5 and put in the Slot. That will never stop being funny.

 

[renberg]

Appropriate age or not, it’s just another example of poor drafting by Hextall. No franchise can afford to bungle top ten picks like with Provorov and Patrick and not have severe consequences down the line.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Yeah I'm gonna stick with it making more sense that the team who hasn't developed a top end defenceman in like 30 years just doesn't know what it's doing.

Until this team stops pounding blocks into circles trying to mold them into a “ a Flyer “ let the kid play to his strengths and work on what he needs to work on. They would of ruined Biuim if they drafted him. They would of turned him into Robert Hagg.

 

[deadhead]

Provorov is an example of letting a player "play to his strengths," which of course means let him prioritize his offense.

That's exactly what Provorov did, an a potential shut down D-man who could contribute on offense, became a mediocre two way D-man who excels at neither end. B/c he lacks the skill set to excel on offense, and seemed to become disinterested in defense.

When he first came up, he was very good in the D-zone, shut down a forecheck, used his body, good anticipation. That player doesn't exist anymore.

 

[sauce88]

Appropriate age or not, it’s just another example of poor drafting by Hextall. No franchise can afford to bungle top ten picks like with Provorov and Patrick and not have severe consequences down the line.

A main issue is the minute they drafted him he was anointed the future #1 D for the team. Instead of just letting him develop to be the best Provorov possible, they, as Jojo put it, used him like Drew Doughty at age 20, which he was not. A properly developed Provorov definitely isn't worth a 7th overall pick but would still be a decent middle of the roster piece.

This all of course still involves speculating that not anointing him as a #1 would lead to keeping his hubris in check and thus being more amicable to changing habits, which who knows.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Even just looking at just that draft with those three defensemen that went in the top ten. Hanifin & Provorov’s maturity/more well roundness were which led them to be selected over Werenski who was probably always seen as the higher offensive upside/skill guy of the three. Fast forward to today Werenski is pretty clearly the best of the three.

The reality is it’s a lot harder to project how defensive play is going to carry from the lower levels to the NHL. Hell even at the NHL level some guys just get pushed through as good defensive players despite the data not anywhere matching up to that.

There’s a lot indicators that would make you feel more comfortable projecting players to the next level on the offensive side of the puck than the defensive side of the puck.

 

[renberg]

Hanifin has been able to stay healthier than Provorov or Werenski. Werenski just can’t seem to keep off of the IRL.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Provorov is an example of letting a player "play to his strengths," which of course means let him prioritize his offense.

I can stop you right there. That is absolutely not what they did. In fact, they neutered his strengths. Remember how he was great at carrying the puck up ice and leading a rush? Team couldn't have a Dman doing that. That was removed from his game at the first opportunity, and it wrecked his utility.

 

[Rebels57]

I might take Hanifin over Werenski at this point.

 

[Magua]

I’d take Bonk over the lot of them.

 

[deadhead]

I can stop you right there. That is absolutely not what they did. In fact, they neutered his strengths. Remember how he was great at carrying the puck up ice and leading a rush? Team couldn't have a Dman doing that. That was removed from his game at the first opportunity, and it wrecked his utility.

No.
Ghost and Sanheim were better at carrying the puck up ice.
Niskanen had better vision and discipline on offense.

Provorov was best at sneaking into the O-Zone and using his good wrist shot.
But he lacked playmaker instincts and vision, which is why he was so-so on the PP.

He should have been the defense first partner who had the speed to get up ice and join the offense and exploit opportunities - but not the main cog.

 

[Random Forest]

Provorov was a top prospect as an 10/11 year old in Russia. This "forgery" would have had to have happen long before he joined a 14U team in the States.

I probably have <10% belief in it, but he’s not the only Russian prospect with weird online rumors about his age. Not that that makes it any more compelling in this particular case.

I don’t care one way and I’m hardly arguing to put any stock in it whatsoever, but I’ve heard far crazier conspiracies than “some Russian parents are able to forge their kids’ birth certificate to give them a leg up on the athletic competition”, so the idea that this was done before coming to the US doesn’t strike me as the implausible part.

 

[Beef Invictus]

No.
Ghost and Sanheim were better at carrying the puck up ice.
Niskanen had better vision and discipline on offense.

Provorov was best at sneaking into the O-Zone and using his good wrist shot.
But he lacked playmaker instincts and vision, which is why he was so-so on the PP.

He should have been the defense first partner who had the speed to get up ice and join the offense and exploit opportunities - but not the main cog.

The audacity to try and gaslight us into forgetting Provorov's transition skills in his rookie year