Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 13: Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL) - 7/6 Upd: Signed 3yr ELC

[VladDrag]

last three seasons (22-24): 38, 46, 46 ES points.
ATOI: 20:31, 21:06, 21:16

He had good metrics his first two seasons, then fell off the next two as he was force fed into a 1C role.
Substantial improvement last season. xGFrel. +6.14, HDCFrel +2.59
Last season JFresh: 39% offense, 96% defense, 75% PP, 96% finishing.
Ideally the 2C on a team with a playmaker 1C (he's more of a goal scorer).

He's also on a bad team. Especially on defense:
Guhle, Matheson, Savard, Barron, Struble, Harris.

The analytics on him say he's been okay to pretty good most of his career, with last year being a big step forwards.

(I hate the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th line qualifiers)

 

[freakydallas13]

guys over on the Flyers reddit are super high on Bonk

Oh they're super high alright.

 

[Curufinwe]

Cross post from HB about Luchanko and two other first round forwards taken by the Flyers:

I think people are specifically upset about trading down and not taking Buium because he has 1D, Adam Fox upside. And because Briere used his lack of size as a reason not to take him when Buium is 6'0", 185 lbs as an 18 year old.

Laughton has the 20th most points out of the 2012 draft, and he was taken at #20. Not bad at all.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2012

NHL Entry Draft 2012 - full list of selections with facts and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Despite missing a season with injury, Frost has the 18th most points from the 2017 draft where he went #27. But the we-need-a-sniper crowd went crazy when Hextall took him over Tolvanen. But Eeli has only managed 9 more points in 35 more NHL games.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2017

NHL Entry Draft 2017 - full list of selections with facts and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[BillDineen]

Cross post from HB about Luchanko and two other first round forwards taken by the Flyers:

I think people are specifically upset about trading down and not taking Buium because he has 1D, Adam Fox upside. And because Briere used his lack of size as a reason not to take him when Buium is 6'0", 185 lbs as an 18 year old.

Laughton has the 20th most points out of the 2012 draft, and he was taken at #20. Not bad at all.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2012

NHL Entry Draft 2012 - full list of selections with facts and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Despite missing a season with injury, Frost has the 18th most points from the 2017 draft where he went #27. But the we-need-a-sniper crowd went crazy when Hextall took him over Tolvanen. But Eeli has only managed 9 more points in 35 more NHL games.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2017

NHL Entry Draft 2017 - full list of selections with facts and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Eeli could have also been claimed off waivers if they weren't at 50 contracts if I remember correctly

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I wanted Jason Robertson at both the Frost & Ratcliffe picks, & I know I wasn’t the only one.

Tolvanen I never loved as a prospect because so many of his goals came at a distance.

Yes, he has an overpowering shot, but he’s one-dimensional & you don’t regularly score from that type of distance in the NHL.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Yeah. Huge Robertson fan.

Speculation: - Trade Deadline

How many ES points do you need from a defenseman? 23 D-men had 25 or more ES points last year. The year before 22. Ghost has had 24, 16, 32, 21 prorated - 26 average excluding his injury season Provorov, 25, 36, 29 prorated - 30 average Gudas, 14, 22, 15, 22 prorated - 18 average Sanheim 10, 22...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[deadhead]

Scoring is up for D-men, last year 32 had 30 or more ES points, 11 had 40 or more.
Sanheim had 35, good enough for 20th. York 79th with 22.
Ghost was 38th with 27, Provorov 50th with 25.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Scoring is up for D-men, last year 32 had 30 or more ES points, 11 had 40 or more.
Sanheim had 35, good enough for 20th. York 79th with 22.
Ghost was 38th with 27, Provorov 50th with 25.

Imagine if that was the Flyers top 4 D today. How much better would the Flyers Defense be?

Ghost and Sanheim 2 legit top pair Dman. Though all pretty much play the left side I believe.

 

[deadhead]

Ghost was on the 3rd pair in both Carolina and Detroit. And will be this season.
He's the prototype PP QB but defensively limited veteran that teams shelter.

Provorov flatlined after 2017, I think he was physically mature early, and lacked the hockey IQ to develop his game. Can play 1st pair minutes but at a 2nd pair level at best.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Ghost was on the 3rd pair in both Carolina and Detroit. And will be this season.
He's the prototype PP QB but defensively limited veteran that teams shelter.

Provorov flatlined after 2017, I think he was physically mature early, and lacked the hockey IQ to develop his game. Can play 1st pair minutes but at a 2nd pair level at best.

You spent the better part of a decade saying Sanheim and Gostisbehere couldn't be the player Provorov could because his hockey IQ was so much higher. I'm 99% sure you explained how he was not just a high IQ player, but an outlier level of it.

So we're saying we were wrong? No one who says "I was wrong" gets any crap from me about it. The whole point is to learn. I just want to be clear because it will come up again.

 

[deadhead]

You spent the better part of a decade saying Sanheim and Gostisbehere couldn't be the player Provorov could because his hockey IQ was so much higher. I'm 99% sure you explained how he was not just a high IQ player, but an outlier level of it.

So we're saying we were wrong? No one who says "I was wrong" gets any crap from me about it. The whole point is to learn. I just want to be clear because it will come up again.

Provorov was a really good D-man for his age (21), but has shown zero progress (some regression) since 2017-18. So on one hand he was mature physically and mentally at a young age, on the other hand, he completely flatlined since then. He was fundamentally sound at a young age, did a great job sealing off forwards on the forecheck, etc.

Now is the early maturity a reflection of IQ or the lack of progress the lack of IQ?
I mean effort is not an issue with him.

Puzzling.

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't miss hearing how indispensable Ivan "Minute Muncher" Provorov was

 

[Beef Invictus]

I don't miss hearing how indispensable Ivan "Minute Muncher" Provorov was

"But who will play his minutes?!?!"


"...someone else"

 

[freakydallas13]

Provorov was a really good D-man for his age (21), but has shown zero progress (some regression) since 2017-18. So on one hand he was mature physically and mentally at a young age, on the other hand, he completely flatlined since then. He was fundamentally sound at a young age, did a great job sealing off forwards on the forecheck, etc.

Now is the early maturity a reflection of IQ or the lack of progress the lack of IQ?
I mean effort is not an issue with him.

Puzzling.

Notably, we avoided saying if we were wrong or not here.

Ghost was on the 3rd pair in both Carolina and Detroit. And will be this season.
He's the prototype PP QB but defensively limited veteran that teams shelter.

Provorov flatlined after 2017, I think he was physically mature early, and lacked the hockey IQ to develop his game. Can play 1st pair minutes but at a 2nd pair level at best.

Ghost on the 3rd pair scored more at even strength than noted wunderkind York, so what does that say?

 

[deadhead]

Notably, we avoided saying if we were wrong or not here.


Ghost on the 3rd pair scored more at even strength than noted wunderkind York, so what does that say?

York is better defensively?
I think York tended to defer to Sanheim and focused on defense last year.
Torts has said repeatedly he wants York to be more aggressive on offense.
That will probably come with time, as York is more confident when he should attack and when he should be more cautious.

 

[trostol]

Provo flatlining couldn't have anything to do with piss poor coaching and development...nah

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Provo flatlining couldn't have anything to do with piss poor coaching and development...nah

He f***ed his shoulder real bad in the one playoffs and then you have bad coaching from AV on top of that.

 

[freakydallas13]

York is better defensively?
I think York tended to defer to Sanheim and focused on defense last year.
Torts has said repeatedly he wants York to be more aggressive on offense.
That will probably come with time, as York is more confident when he should attack and when he should be more cautious.

If you have one d-man scoring more at even strength on the third pair, and another scoring less at even strength in the top 4, it does not mean the one scoring less is better defensively.

It means the one who scores less is worse at scoring.

 

[VladDrag]

Wrong thread delete

 

[Random Forest]

Didn’t someone claim there were rumors about Provorov having a forged birth certificate and really being like two or three years older?

Sounds absurd at first… but not actually crazy at all on second thought? Would make a whole lot of sense on multiple levels tbh.

There’s been chatter that this was (is?) relatively common practice for Russian prospects. Who on earth could verify some birth certificate from a hospital in Vladivostok or wherever?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Yeah. Huge Robertson fan.

Speculation: - Trade Deadline

How many ES points do you need from a defenseman? 23 D-men had 25 or more ES points last year. The year before 22. Ghost has had 24, 16, 32, 21 prorated - 26 average excluding his injury season Provorov, 25, 36, 29 prorated - 30 average Gudas, 14, 22, 15, 22 prorated - 18 average Sanheim 10, 22...

forums.hfboards.com

If you read the thread, which is from 5 years ago, I explicitly said I like Robertson & wanted the Flyers to draft him. This is one of the worst “gotcha” efforts I’ve seen.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Didn’t someone claim there were rumors about Provorov having a forged birth certificate and really being like two or three years older?

Sounds absurd at first… but not actually crazy at all on second thought? Would make a whole lot of sense on multiple levels tbh.

There’s been chatter that this was (is?) relatively common practice for Russian prospects. Who on earth could verify some birth certificate from a hospital in Vladivostok or wherever?

There were rumors about Michkov being older, too.

Who knows. But Provorov definitely physically peaked early.

 

[Beef Invictus]

York is better defensively?
I think York tended to defer to Sanheim and focused on defense last year.
Torts has said repeatedly he wants York to be more aggressive on offense.
That will probably come with time, as York is more confident when he should attack and when he should be more cautious.

Is York better defensively? Because Ghost is actually above average defensively as well, and I'm skeptical that York is so much better it eliminates any gap.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Didn’t someone claim there were rumors about Provorov having a forged birth certificate and really being like two or three years older?

Sounds absurd at first… but not actually crazy at all on second thought? Would make a whole lot of sense on multiple levels tbh.

There’s been chatter that this was (is?) relatively common practice for Russian prospects. Who on earth could verify some birth certificate from a hospital in Vladivostok or wherever?

Yeah I'm gonna stick with it making more sense that the team who hasn't developed a top end defenceman in like 30 years just doesn't know what it's doing.

 

[deadhead]

Provorov rebounded when they brought Niskanen in to partner with him.
Same with Sanheim with Braun.

However, Provorov fell back without Niskanen, Sanheim has been able to step up, though 2022-23 was a struggle, without Braun.

There is some merit pairing a young D-man with a reliable veteran, or why they're keeping Seeler around with Drysdale (and maybe Attard), then Bonk, Sotheran, Mills at RHD down the road.