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Prospect Info: Round 1, 7th overall: Matvei Michkov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL)

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FLYguy3911 said:
re: Michkov's scoring rates if you have a sub.

I touched on this around draft time, but someone smarter than me actually put the numbers to it.

eprinkside.com

Russian hockey has been declining for years, it’s time to adjust how we view the prospects

Once a contender for second best league in the world, KHL has fallen in prospect development. Chace McCallum looks at the decline of hockey in Russia as evidenced by the KHL, VHL, and MHL.
eprinkside.com eprinkside.com
Click to expand...
Except U20 players are rarely among the scoring leaders in the KHL, even with decline.
It's still a major accomplishment.
 
FLYguy3911 said:
re: Michkov's scoring rates if you have a sub.

I touched on this around draft time, but someone smarter than me actually put the numbers to it.

eprinkside.com

Russian hockey has been declining for years, it’s time to adjust how we view the prospects

Once a contender for second best league in the world, KHL has fallen in prospect development. Chace McCallum looks at the decline of hockey in Russia as evidenced by the KHL, VHL, and MHL.
eprinkside.com eprinkside.com
Click to expand...
The issue with this "declining" theory is that pretty much only Michkov and Nikishin have abnormally high scoring rates among the prospects. I mean, wouldn't it be logical to assume that other top prospects should also have very high scoring rates if the league would be declining so much?
 
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Michkov is a special talent. But what would his scoring look like if he was still on SKA? That's not a reflection on him; it's a reflection on the larger mechanisms at work. The Russian developmental model is not known for aggressively pushing the usage of teenagers -- all the names bandied about are outlier cases (with paths to stardom). For every league at every level, including the NHL, usage is everything. And league wide scoring trends are just that: league wide. It's not confined to only prospects. If you don't get usage, you're not scoring, whatever the other trends are.
 
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Caser said:
The issue with this "declining" theory is that pretty much only Michkov and Nikishin have abnormally high scoring rates among the prospects. I mean, wouldn't it be logical to assume that other top prospects should also have very high scoring rates if the league would be declining so much?
Click to expand...
To add to this, I’ve seen some infer that the declining KHL theory is predicated, at least in part, on talent leaving the KHL post-Ukraine invasion, yet Michkov set the D-2 PPG record before the invasion even happened. He’s been setting scoring rate records across multiple leagues both before and after any invasion talent drop.
 
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Caser said:
The issue with this "declining" theory is that pretty much only Michkov and Nikishin have abnormally high scoring rates among the prospects. I mean, wouldn't it be logical to assume that other top prospects should also have very high scoring rates if the league would be declining so much?
Click to expand...
Well, when Weal is scoring a PPG . . .

NHL veterans generally do pretty well in the KHL historically, look at Lehtera a few years ago, but it seems the analysis is based on the small sample of players going in and out of the league, so it might be somewhat noisy.

Even if the KHL has declined to being closer to the SHL or AHL, scoring a PPG at 18 is still awfully impressive.
NHL draft picks under 25 in the KHL this season
Morozov 19g 7-16 23 #61-2018 (23)
Chmelevski 19g 10-6 16 #185-2017 (24)
Yurov 19g 6-7 13 #24-2022 (19)
Kovalenko 11g 6-7 13 #171-2018 (24)
Grebyonkin 21g 7-5 12 #135-2022 (20)
Rashevsky 19g 6-6 12 #146-2021 (23)
Firstov 20g 6-5 11 #42-2019 (22)
Nikishin 18g 4-7 11 #69-2020 (22)
Ye 19g 4-6 10 #142-2023 (18)
Yarovoy 20g 4-5 9 #126-2023 (20)
Beryozkin 19g 1-8 9 #138-2020 (22)
Kravtsov 9g 5-3 8 #9-2018 (23)
Moroz 18g 3-3 8 #88-2023 (19)
 
deadhead said:
Well, when Weal is scoring a PPG . . .

NHL veterans generally do pretty well in the KHL historically, look at Lehtera a few years ago, but it seems the analysis is based on the small sample of players going in and out of the league, so it might be somewhat noisy.

Even if the KHL has declined to being closer to the SHL or AHL, scoring a PPG at 18 is still awfully impressive.
NHL draft picks under 25 in the KHL this season
Morozov 19g 7-16 23 #61-2018 (23)
Chmelevski 19g 10-6 16 #185-2017 (24)
Yurov 19g 6-7 13 #24-2022 (19)
Kovalenko 11g 6-7 13 #171-2018 (24)
Grebyonkin 21g 7-5 12 #135-2022 (20)
Rashevsky 19g 6-6 12 #146-2021 (23)
Firstov 20g 6-5 11 #42-2019 (22)
Nikishin 18g 4-7 11 #69-2020 (22)
Ye 19g 4-6 10 #142-2023 (18)
Yarovoy 20g 4-5 9 #126-2023 (20)
Beryozkin 19g 1-8 9 #138-2020 (22)
Kravtsov 9g 5-3 8 #9-2018 (23)
Moroz 18g 3-3 8 #88-2023 (19)
Click to expand...
Morozov is a product of Goldobin and he, as well as Weal, Barber etc. seem to be the typical Nigel Dawes-like "not good enough for the NHL" players who had a lot of success in the KHL even in the league's better times.

As for other names not like anyone is looking too good, obviously nowadays youngsters have more opportunities in the KHL, but the numbers are showing that it didn't become much easier to produce there, even despite some decline being there.

As for all these models, those are trying to predict the translation factor between the leagues, but practice shows that it doesn't work like that: guys like Shipachyov will fail and guys like Barabanov will succeed, no model can predict that, not to mention that measuring the league's level with the help of that is doubtful to say the least.
 
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Beef Invictus said:
This guy absolutely has to do his full 3 years over there to maximize the chances of everything in the Flyers organization being fired or thrown out. Clear it all out. Furniture, drywall, all of it. It's all tainted.
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lol

you maybe need to elaborate on why that's the case, given your current case sems to suggest the Flyers have been equally bad at everything forever. not sure why 3 years means anything in your viewpoint of overall tainted everything...is there magic happening after the 3 years? or just inevitably better?
 
eramosat said:
lol

you maybe need to elaborate on why that's the case, given your current case sems to suggest the Flyers have been equally bad at everything forever. not sure why 3 years means anything in your viewpoint of overall tainted everything...is there magic happening after the 3 years? or just inevitably better?
Click to expand...

My post was clear. It maximizes the chance. It doesn't guarantee anything. This organization has proven incredibly able to never change.
 
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